I've said this before, but if Sakurai held back the Geno and Lloyd Mii costumes for this long, that would actually be pretty insensitive for them to only come back (unless bringing them back was outside of Sakurai's control which is possible). Unlike the final Smash Direct on that fabeled November, Isaac, Shadow, and so on being held back as Assist Trophies was saddening, but whether people want to admit it or not, Sakurai has never publicly acknowledged the popularity of Isaac, Shadow, Skull Kid, etc. Whereas he has for Lloyd and especially Geno. Sakurai has publicly acknowledged that the characters are popular within the Smash community, whereas we all just speculate how well characters like Isaac did on the Smash Ballot.
My point is that it is still incredibly suspicious Lloyd and especially Geno's costume haven't returned yet. Lloyd I'm iffy on since other Smash 4 Bandai Namco costumes have been spread out one by one with no Bandai Namco character (Heihachi and Gil), but Lloyd is more popular of a request than any of those and, again, Sakurai has acknowledged Lloyd's popularity. My only issue is that I actually could potentially see Lloyd's costume being held.
Geno having his Smash 4 costume seems really unlikely unless it were a premium Mii costume because, again, Sakurai has not only expressed his desire to add Geno, but also has acknowledged his hardcore Smash fanbase popularity, his Mii costume was the only one to get a special splash screen in Smash 4 (showing the developers recognized its importance), and Square Enix typically don't add content unless they're flying solo. It is still weird that Geno and Chocobo costumes weren't brought back with Hero. Especially Chocobo since that is purely Square Enix, whereas Geno is a cross between Mario and Square. Someone could make the argument Geno's costume could come with Waluigi or Paper Mario or some other Mario character (which I don't agree with), but then where does Chocobo go? I know some people are like, "Oh they wanted to purely focus on Dragon Quest content," but the thing is that I highly doubt the Mii costumes would've been held back unless another Square Enix character is coming.
Oh, they definitely wanted to focus on Dragon Quest. Multiple IP owners are part of the IP itself as well as the costumes. They also were blatantly advertising it and the only thing that wasn't DQ was the amiibo shown off.
As for a Premium, I could see it happen, but only if Geno isn't playable. Upgrading him is giving more fanservice when it comes to the business side of things. People need to remember, that in reality, Sakurai does not see Costumes, AT's, Spirits, etc. as some kind of slap in the face. Never have and never will. He sees it purely as fanservice. This is a developer and business side decision. The entire point behind them is to please the fans. I doubt we'd see the regular costume, unless it's gotten later while Geno is playable. Frankly, they probably scrapped it when negotiating for the spirit.
Now, something of interest is that there's the rumor Cloud was licensed for Ultimate at the same time as 4. Worth noting that if this is true, it's possible all the Mii costumes from Cloud/Corrin/Bayonetta were licensed at the same time. That includes Chocobo, Gil, Tails, and Knuckles. We saw three of these already back. This would be the only ones licensed. Now keep in mind DLC was greenlit around 2017(or it was 2016. I can't remember which July). That also means that figuring if Mii costumes should be DLC would come up. If so, that means those 5 costumes would be looked at again overall. Now, if Geno's costume was licensed to come back(and not renegotiated when the spirits were), whether or not Geno is playable, they're going to still bring it back anyway because they already paid for it. Premium does require extra licensing, but that's also plausible anyway for Pass 2 due to situations coming up(like Hero's presentation being Dragon Quest only), and around that time we also got Pass 2 greenlit. It goes without saying they can renegotiate things more than once. There's no "hard number of times to talk" as is.
I still think he's going to be playable, and I see his regular costume coming back as is. I don't think any costumes are scrapped at all. Lloyd Irving is the only character I'm iffy on among the remaining costumes. Monster Hunter looks in a pretty good shape right now.
I'm aware this is an unpopular opinion on how costumes work, but I just don't see any reason for them to scrap if it's still licensed. It's a waste of money. They'll literally negotiate it so they get their money back, or more items in return for not using the costume. If it doesn't come back, and we don't see Geno, then it simply was never licensed for Ultimate or they chose to remove its usage and got spirits instead. Licensing and talks are actually quite complicated and a lot can happen to begin with.
That DQ argument is not even that certain. I get that they want to promote DQ11 S, but these costumes literally get less than 20 seconds of screen time. I seriously doubt that they would be that particular. And I really doubt a brief appearance of these costumes would ruin promotion. If they want everything DQ, don’t you think they would of played DQ music instead of battlefield in the costumes segment? May of been a nitpick but still, it’s odd they didn’t play any DQ music. Or I mean, these costumes are missing because there might be another Square character perhaps Geno.
...You know they have to license using that music in the presentation, right? That means extra money unneeded. They simply didn't license it.
The idea they were removed from the presentation is the companies simply deciding that it should be DQ only. We've got 3+ companies who are all picky deciding this.
That doesn't mean a SE character is coming or not, but that in itself wouldn't matter in this case. They also already had DLC greenlit for Pass 2 by this time(according to the only rumors known from Imran Kahn. And to be fair, he is highly credible), meaning Geno and Chocobo had multiple characters to return with, not just SE, if needed. So the SE part means nothing in the end. More DLC existing is more than enough reason to move the costumes as is(assuming as I noted before, they were licensed for Ultimate, which we don't know for sure).
Basically, there's multiple reasons to move the costumes. SE getting another character is just one viable one, but not the only reason whatsoever. Now to be fair, seeing the current pass, I do think one is coming, whether or not it's Geno remains to be seen.