Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[Joshdabozz]

Oh absolutely there was a list at some point. But people keep saying that Sakurai picked characters from a list Nintendo gave him as if it's confirmed fact, and that is simply untrue. Nintendo probably had a list before they narrowed it down to Steve, but according to Sakurai, Nintendo literally showed up at his workplace and told him to add Minecraft to smash. He didn't pick Steve off a list.

Only thing I do not agree with is that they told him to add it, they asked him, and he most likely thought about it long and hard. I have seen people say "Oh Sakurai did not want Steve in smash cause of his face after the reveal trailer, He had to have been forced." This is untrue, and I know you are not saying that, but I believe they asked him, and after he thought about it, he said yes, he might of said no originally and Nintendo kept pestering him, but he was never forced. Keep in mind im not saying that you said he was forced.

My best guess is:

• Min Min
• Steve

And in no particular order,

• Arle Nadja
• Square Enix Rep (Geno, 2B, Bravely etc)
• Ryu Hayabusa/Dante/Lloyd
• Rex and Pyra/MonolithSoft rep

Explanations

Arle Nadja: I honestly think people underestimate Arle a ton, I think she has the potential to be the BANJO of this pass. Well, not exactly for us; but in Japan she's probably the "biggest never-ever" left, she's been highly requested since Smash 4 (and maybe even before that), and has consistently been at the top of the speculation scene for a long, long time. There is no way Nintendo hasn't noticed her popularity over there yet. I think Smash also tries to reach for new audiences with MOST of the DLC and having a Puyo Puyo character would definitely bring in a new audience to Smash. Sakurai could probably think of clever ways to translate her puzzle mechanics, as well as give her the RPG spells to make for a interesting playstyle. Besides if the rumors surrounding Reimu are anything to go by (but she's a mii costume), I think she would fit in really well with Arle's wave.

Square-Enix character: I think it's most likely Geno, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone else gets in over him. In particular 2B, Bravely, Lara Croft and Crono are still possible and to a lesser extent Neku Sakuraba. If we follow patterns, then the mii costumes should return with Square-Enix's 2nd character; but at the same time if we also follow patterns, Nintendo/Square always picks their biggest hitters in terms of Smash so far. We got Cloud in Smash 4, and Hero in Smash Ultimate; both of which are industry icons. While I don't really think that a ton of the other non-FF characters are nearly as big, you cannot deny the iconicity of Lara Croft; who is a HUGE character or 2B who is a pretty big modern icon.

While Lara Croft's Smash fanbase is middling, and really low in Japan, we have had non-"requested" character in Smash before as DLC and there are probably some locations where she's huge (like Terry). 2B's biggest obstacle is the lack of a Nintendo connection, but I think that "rule" is just hanging on by a thread; Nier is probably the series Square is the most interested in expanding currently. Bravely is just about to get a new game on the Switch and Asano has been supporting Nintendo systems for the last decade, we already know after Bravely that a new Octopath is coming out. And a Job Switching mechanic sounds like something right up Sakurai's alley. And Crono is an anomaly, outside of Sora (who is understandable), Crono is the only character from the Seven Squares who's game doesn't have any content in Smash. If the leaks are true, we know that Sora was at the very least planned for; which makes Chrono Trigger's lack in Smash even more of an anomaly. He's been inactive for a long time just like Geno, but I am pretty sure there are a lot of people out there that would consider Smash X Chrono Trigger a bigger headline than Smash X SMRPG. Neku makes sense from a promotional standpoint due to the very likely sequel, and the upcoming anime adaptation.

Ryu Hayabusa/Dante/Lloyd: I'm unsure of which one would get in, but maybe we'll get 2 of them? I think Ryu Hayabusa has the best shot with all the things pointing towards him after Steve (especially the early "leak"). Koei Tecmo missing a fighter, is probably the only thing that's more surprising than Namco not getting a second one. They've been close to Nintendo forever, and have worked on a lot of 1st party stuff like Fire Emblem and Hyrule Warriors.I think the trilogy collection got leaked, which is another bonus point for Hayabusa.

I don't think we'd get BOTH Dante/Lloyd though. Primarily because I feel as though Nintendo tries to go for "different gimmicks" with each fighter, and I think Devil Trigger and Overlimit would likely share a lot of similarities. Both would likely be a gauge that grant them more speed/power/and new attacks, obviously though we could get a scenario where Devil Trigger is Dante's Final Smash and a style gauge is his gimmick, so then Lloyd could have access to overlimit; but I don't really think they'd do that. If we do get Ryu + 1 more of these then I'd replace Arle with that.

Rex and Pyra/MonolithSoft Rep: I think we'll probably end off the pass with a more recent 1st party character; I know Papa thinks that they wouldn't do that, "they'll end off Ultimate on a high note"; but I doubt it. They were literally ready to end off Ultimate with Byleth, who is far more controversial. Rex and Pyra have tons of requests in Japan, and a good amount over here too. After Min Min, I think we'll probably get them. Some people always bring up the excuse that "they got a mii costume as DLC so they'd never happen", but is it really such a big deal? We know the mii costume was in fact meant for base because Nia's costume is already present there.

And sure, maybe that really means they are disconfirmed for whatever reason. But then you open up the possibility of us getting Lora and Jin instead, who were the main characters of the DLC/standalone game; XC 2 Torna has had no content since release either, and Octopath Traveler showcases that they have no problems giving spirit events years down the line (and we already passed Torna's 2nd year anniversary last month, unlike Octopath which got a spirit event to celebrate it's 2nd year). And heck if we go for a "promotional" pick for next year, MonolithSoft has had a unknown action game in the works for around 4 years at this point; and according to interviews, Xenoblade 3 should be deep into development now (started in 2018), either one of those games could release next year. The point is that getting a Monolith/Xeno rep in some way is super likely.

Honorable Mentions: Crash, Zelda rep, Yuri Lowell, Monster Hunter, any character from Nihon Falcom, and more.
Crash: There is no proof that the document is real and the source is very much "Dude, trust me bro". Maybe it is, but who knows. Even if it is, there is always the chance of a Crash mii costume or a spirit event. I think Steve was our big Western Rep for the pass, and heck the trailer even had some emphasis on Mario and Sonic.

Zelda Rep: BoTW 2 will be huge, but I don't think they'll go for a Zelda character; especially after giving us a Zelda costume as a bonus for this pass.

Yuri Lowell: I think Lloyd is more likely.

Monster Hunter: Good shot, wouldn't be surprised if it makes it in.

Nihon Falcom: Huge SNK-like legacy, but with 4 slots left; I don't know about their chances. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a spirit event of Ys or Trails down the line though. Even some Mii costumes.

Your predictions are honestly pretty logical, I have seen so many people (Inside and outside this thread) say the next 4 will be third parties, but I believe It will be cut right in the middle, half 3rd parties, and half 1st/2nd parties.

 

[Deleted member]

I haven't been in this thread for a couple of days so I really don't know what's going on in terms of speculation aside from Activision's document of a 5-year plan for the Crash Bandicoot series, which I first heard and read about a few years ago though there were no details of what was on it back then, mentioning Crash appearing in Smash as apart of their 2021 plans. It's fascinating that the stuff that was on it is now starting to come into fruition when nobody had a clue what was on it when it was first mentioned in 2018.

Anyway, I'm just gonna throw my predictions out there because I just feel like sharing them. These aren't in any particular order.

Geno - Obviously. He needs no introduction or explanation. I'm confident he will come. He's been asked for for such a long time. Sakurai knows people want him and he's wanted him himself. Nintendo is aware of Geno's demand too, and with Square's two biggest franchises already represented, and Square just being more open and friendly with Nintendo overall, I just can't see them saying no.

Crash - I was always confident in him regardless of that Activision document being leaked. He's just too big of a character to leave out of Ultimate, and I don't see him being anything less than a playable fighter. It's either he's playable or he isn't in at all, for me personally.

Ryu Hayabusa - I don't know anything about him as a character, or what he'd bring to the table, but Ninja Gaiden seems like a series that'd be pretty great to see in Smash. It's up there with Castlevania and Mega Man, I hear, so I'm all for it. Of course, I'm not against any character, aside from non-video game characters, but I'm all for Hayabusa to join in. He also seems like a safe pick at the moment.

A character that's bound to make people upset - I said no particular order, but a selection like this just has to finish off the pass because Smash has always been known to end its reveals on a sour note, so I'm just accepting that at this point. I, myself, won't be mad or disappointed, no matter who it is, but I know people are bound to be disappointed and angry.

Overall, I'm looking forward to see who will join and become DLC, regardless if I'm right or wrong on my predictions. If Crash or Hayabusa or somebody end up being Mii costumes or if Dante gets in as playable or something, then oh well, it's not the end of the world.

 

[Firox]

Oh absolutely there was a list at some point. But people keep saying that Sakurai picked characters from a list Nintendo gave him as if it's confirmed fact, and that is simply untrue. Nintendo probably had a list before they narrowed it down to Steve, but according to Sakurai, Nintendo literally showed up at his workplace and told him to add Minecraft to smash. He didn't pick Steve off a list.

Yeah, I'll give you that. I'm just saying that corporate themselves probably had a list and then narrowed it down based on strategic marketing. They then took the edited list to Sakurai and said, "can you make it so, Numbuh One?" So in effect, no, Sakurai himself didn't have a list, so to speak, but I think corporate entertained some ideas before settling on what they thought would sell the pass most effectively and then handed the order to Sakurai.

 

[Sigran101]

Yeah, I'll give you that. I'm just saying that corporate themselves probably had a list and then narrowed it down based on strategic marketing. They then took the edited list to Sakurai and said, "can you make it so, Numbuh One?" So in effect, no, Sakurai himself didn't have a list, so to speak, but I think corporate entertained some ideas before settling on what they thought would sell the pass most effectively and then handed the order to Sakurai.

Yes, I agree with this. It's strictly the narrative that Sakurai is choosing his biased favorites off a huge Nintendo list that I object to. This is also used in speculation to say "well if these characters were all on the list surely Sakurai would have chosen this one because he said he likes this game", and it gets taken as a legitimate argument because the smash fanbase so firmly believes this debunked made up theory.

 

[Droodle]

We talked about yesterday about why Geno was in the base game despite being a Square Enix character and why this was different from the Monster Hunter content. I realized the answer is actually really, really simple: Nintendo published Super Mario RPG.

Super Mario RPG - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

This is also why Fatal Frame had content in the base game despite being Koei Tecmo and why there was Kingdom Battle stuff despite being Ubisoft. I also want to say that Nintendo was the publisher for the Shovel Knight and Shantae games in Asia too. Actually... Hold the phone... !

Banjo-Kazooie - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Nintendo was the publisher of the first two Banjo games, Bayonetta 2, and Fire Emblem: Three Houses so we technically already have three characters in Smash that were created by a third party but their respective games were published by Nintendo.

That's not how it really works. But you do you. Banjo, Bayonetta could be grouped together in that they are 3rd parties. Fire Emblem: Three Houses is entirely 1st party, just developed by a close partner. Intelligient Systems have no major rights over FE, if someone else bought them; the rights would still 100% belong to Nintendo. Also Shovel Knight and Shantae were not published by Nintendo either, at least not that I can find. But regardless publishing and "ownership" are not the same thing.

What you're suggesting makes characters like Kirby, Waluigi, Diddy, and Dixie a "third party". Heck, by that logic Shulk is actually our second Namco character; because not only was Monolith owned by Namco first, but also because Shulk was created when Namco still had a good % of stakes in MonolithSoft. Nintendo didn't get full control over them until later, when Nintendo bought Namco's shares. So technically we've had 2 Namco characters since Smash 4.

EDIT: Looked it up, Shovel Knight was indeed published by Nintendo in certain areas; but Shantae, I don't think so.
EDIT 2: The same source that says Shovel Knight was published by Nintendo, also says Monster Hunter was too. I don't know which game though.

 

[PatPrime]

My best guess is:

• Min Min
• Steve

And in no particular order,

• Arle Nadja
• Square Enix Rep (Geno, 2B, Bravely etc)
• Ryu Hayabusa/Dante/Lloyd
• Rex and Pyra/MonolithSoft rep

Explanations

Arle Nadja: I honestly think people underestimate Arle a ton, I think she has the potential to be the BANJO of this pass. Well, not exactly for us; but in Japan she's probably the "biggest never-ever" left, she's been highly requested since Smash 4 (and maybe even before that), and has consistently been at the top of the speculation scene for a long, long time. There is no way Nintendo hasn't noticed her popularity over there yet. I think Smash also tries to reach for new audiences with MOST of the DLC and having a Puyo Puyo character would definitely bring in a new audience to Smash. Sakurai could probably think of clever ways to translate her puzzle mechanics, as well as give her the RPG spells to make for a interesting playstyle. Besides if the rumors surrounding Reimu are anything to go by (but she's a mii costume), I think she would fit in really well with Arle's wave.

Square-Enix character: I think it's most likely Geno, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone else gets in over him. In particular 2B, Bravely, Lara Croft and Crono are still possible and to a lesser extent Neku Sakuraba. If we follow patterns, then the mii costumes should return with Square-Enix's 2nd character; but at the same time if we also follow patterns, Nintendo/Square always picks their biggest hitters in terms of Smash so far. We got Cloud in Smash 4, and Hero in Smash Ultimate; both of which are industry icons. While I don't really think that a ton of the other non-FF characters are nearly as big, you cannot deny the iconicity of Lara Croft; who is a HUGE character or 2B who is a pretty big modern icon.

While Lara Croft's Smash fanbase is middling, and really low in Japan, we have had non-"requested" character in Smash before as DLC and there are probably some locations where she's huge (like Terry). 2B's biggest obstacle is the lack of a Nintendo connection, but I think that "rule" is just hanging on by a thread; Nier is probably the series Square is the most interested in expanding currently. Bravely is just about to get a new game on the Switch and Asano has been supporting Nintendo systems for the last decade, we already know after Bravely that a new Octopath is coming out. And a Job Switching mechanic sounds like something right up Sakurai's alley. And Crono is an anomaly, outside of Sora (who is understandable), Crono is the only character from the Seven Squares who's game doesn't have any content in Smash. If the leaks are true, we know that Sora was at the very least planned for; which makes Chrono Trigger's lack in Smash even more of an anomaly. He's been inactive for a long time just like Geno, but I am pretty sure there are a lot of people out there that would consider Smash X Chrono Trigger a bigger headline than Smash X SMRPG. Neku makes sense from a promotional standpoint due to the very likely sequel, and the upcoming anime adaptation.

Ryu Hayabusa/Dante/Lloyd: I'm unsure of which one would get in, but maybe we'll get 2 of them? I think Ryu Hayabusa has the best shot with all the things pointing towards him after Steve (especially the early "leak"). Koei Tecmo missing a fighter, is probably the only thing that's more surprising than Namco not getting a second one. They've been close to Nintendo forever, and have worked on a lot of 1st party stuff like Fire Emblem and Hyrule Warriors.I think the trilogy collection got leaked, which is another bonus point for Hayabusa.

I don't think we'd get BOTH Dante/Lloyd though. Primarily because I feel as though Nintendo tries to go for "different gimmicks" with each fighter, and I think Devil Trigger and Overlimit would likely share a lot of similarities. Both would likely be a gauge that grant them more speed/power/and new attacks, obviously though we could get a scenario where Devil Trigger is Dante's Final Smash and a style gauge is his gimmick, so then Lloyd could have access to overlimit; but I don't really think they'd do that. If we do get Ryu + 1 more of these then I'd replace Arle with that.

Rex and Pyra/MonolithSoft Rep: I think we'll probably end off the pass with a more recent 1st party character; I know Papa thinks that they wouldn't do that, "they'll end off Ultimate on a high note"; but I doubt it. They were literally ready to end off Ultimate with Byleth, who is far more controversial. Rex and Pyra have tons of requests in Japan, and a good amount over here too. After Min Min, I think we'll probably get them. Some people always bring up the excuse that "they got a mii costume as DLC so they'd never happen", but is it really such a big deal? We know the mii costume was in fact meant for base because Nia's costume is already present there.

And sure, maybe that really means they are disconfirmed for whatever reason. But then you open up the possibility of us getting Lora and Jin instead, who were the main characters of the DLC/standalone game; XC 2 Torna has had no content since release either, and Octopath Traveler showcases that they have no problems giving spirit events years down the line (and we already passed Torna's 2nd year anniversary last month, unlike Octopath which got a spirit event to celebrate it's 2nd year). And heck if we go for a "promotional" pick for next year, MonolithSoft has had a unknown action game in the works for around 4 years at this point; and according to interviews, Xenoblade 3 should be deep into development now (started in 2018), either one of those games could release next year. The point is that getting a Monolith/Xeno rep in some way is super likely.

Honorable Mentions: Crash, Zelda rep, Yuri Lowell, Monster Hunter, any character from Nihon Falcom, and more.
Crash: There is no proof that the document is real and the source is very much "Dude, trust me bro". Maybe it is, but who knows. Even if it is, there is always the chance of a Crash mii costume or a spirit event. I think Steve was our big Western Rep for the pass, and heck the trailer even had some emphasis on Mario and Sonic.

Zelda Rep: BoTW 2 will be huge, but I don't think they'll go for a Zelda character; especially after giving us a Zelda costume as a bonus for this pass.

Yuri Lowell: I think Lloyd is more likely.

Monster Hunter: Good shot, wouldn't be surprised if it makes it in.

Nihon Falcom: Huge SNK-like legacy, but with 4 slots left; I don't know about their chances. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a spirit event of Ys or Trails down the line though. Even some Mii costumes.

I personally don't think Steve is our big Western rep character like Banjo was. I mean yes, he IS a western character, but I honestly see him as a Hero-type character, one that has lots of popularity in one region or another and didn't have a big Smash fan following, memes aside. I think Geno would be the Banjo of this pass based on sheer Smash fan popularity alone. I will be honestly surprised if Crash is not in this pass because he seems like a no brainer choice, at least for me.

I wouldn't be against Arle but I also wouldn't be really that excited for her, personally.

 

[Firox]

Yes, I agree with this. It's strictly the narrative that Sakurai is choosing his biased favorites off a huge Nintendo list that I object to. This is also used in speculation to say "well if these characters were all on the list surely Sakurai would have chosen this one because he said he likes this game", and it gets taken as a legitimate argument because the smash fanbase so firmly believes this debunked made up theory.

The issue comes when people argue that Geno would be a Sakurai pick and not a Nintendo pick, which I admit is a concerning possibility. If corporate Nintendo is only interested in obvious cash grabs or performing self-fellatio to their own franchises, both major (FE) or derelict (ARMS), then we'd be in trouble. Fortunately, B-K, Joker, and to an extent, Terry, throw a huge wrench in this assumption. One could easily argue that those three were chosen specifically because they catered to the hardcore smash fans, outside console fans and fighting game community respectively. This means that even corporate Nintendo acknowledges that at least SOME fan pandering is necessary to sell the passes and that, regardless of who owns the desired IP, said characters are prime for creating hype. Geno, as evidenced by character polls and the support of his fans, has demonstrated himself to be in a very similar vein to B-K as someone that would generate significant hype regardless of perceived relevance. Sakurai knows it, and thanks to the efforts of Operation Starfall and others, Nintendo has to know it as well. There's good reason to believe they won't be so tone deaf as to pass us up this time.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I don't think its hard to imagine that a lot of the various popularity and nature of the second fighter's pass characters will be mixed in comparison to the first. Min Min is a fighting game character like Terry but is very much serving the same role that Byleth did as a a first party rep associated with a somewhat recent release. I'd actually peg Steve as closer to Joker, a big third party rep popular in the East and West and who wouldn't have been expected a couple of years ago. Hero was a bigger deal to the Japanese audience than North America or Europe and there could be another fighter within the next year like that.

In that same sense, I'd would agree that Geno would be the Banjo, acting as the long time Smash request due to their legacy as a third party character heavily associated with Nintendo.

 

[Heoj]

Well dang, a lot of people are posting their predictions, so I guess I'll join in.

FP8: Geno - Yeh I mean, what am I supposed to say, our boy is coming.
FP9: Ryu Hayabusa - as we all know, Ryu has been involved in a lot of rumours whether they are real or fake. He has a lot going for him right now like Ryza being out of the competition, Koei Tecmo being so close to nintendo that they are making a breath of the wild verse warriors game, the company really deserves a rep. Ryu also fits really well as an NES classic, and i could see sakurai geeking out when explaining him. Ryu also just seems really dang cool.
FP10: A first party - I really can't narrow down which first party i think will join, but if i had to choose, I could definitely see a 2nd Xenoblade character joining. I also dont see this being a pokemon, a DK, waluigi or a kirby character
FP11: A Capcom character - I think Dante is the most likely for Capcom but Phoeniz Wright is a close 2nd. I think monster hunter is getting costumed and I dont think other capcom characters stand much of a chance, like Viewtiful Joe, Arthur and Morrigan don't have much of a chance.

Honorable mentions:
Phoenix Wright
Sora
Crash
Zelda rep

 

[PatPrime]

I might as well make my predictions, too.
FP8 - Geno. It's the Geno thread, so I gotta put Geno. Has a lot going for him.
FP9 - Crash. He seems like a no brainer choice and I do believe that Activision doc. It probably doesn't guarantee Crash but it seems Activision has plans to try to get him in Smash at the very least. Popular in the West and also has a decent following in the East, morseo back in his heyday on the Playstation.
FP10 - Ryu or Lloyd. Both have their own reasons for being likely but something tells me we are going to get one of them and not both.
FP11 - Wildcard. I can't say who we are going to get, could be a first party shill pick, could be Dante, could be lots of choices. I can't just pick one character.

 

[Fatmanonice]

That's not how it really works. But you do you. Banjo, Bayonetta could be grouped together in that they are 3rd parties. Fire Emblem: Three Houses is entirely 1st party, just developed by a close partner. Intelligient Systems have no major rights over FE, if someone else bought them; the rights would still 100% belong to Nintendo. Also Shovel Knight and Shantae were not published by Nintendo either, at least not that I can find. But regardless publishing and "ownership" are not the same thing.

What you're suggesting makes characters like Kirby, Waluigi, Diddy, and Dixie a "third party". Heck, by that logic Shulk is actually our second Namco character; because not only was Monolith owned by Namco first, but also because Shulk was created when Namco still had a good % of stakes in MonolithSoft. Nintendo didn't get full control over them until later, when Nintendo bought Namco's shares. So technically we've had 2 Namco characters since Smash 4.

EDIT: Looked it up, Shovel Knight was indeed published by Nintendo in certain areas; but Shantae, I don't think so.
EDIT 2: The same source that says Shovel Knight was published by Nintendo, also says Monster Hunter was too. I don't know which game though.

Droodle : Nintendo has always owned Diddy and Dixie, Nintendo owns Camelot and HAL, and Nintendo has owned Monolith Soft since 2007. Once again, not the same. We're talking about Nintendo published third party games, not companies that Nintendo literally owns.

Also, decided to look into it and this is the Monster Hunter game Nintendo published:

Monster Hunter Stories - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The only Nintendo published Monster Hunter but not in Smash in any capacity. Not a good sign in light of everything else. All in all, it's a weird hill to die on, not even factoring in everything else regarding Capcom, especially all the Devil May Cry stuff that just kind of makes this awkward as all hell. You're right, a Monster Hunter rep isn't impossible but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[Droodle]

Droodle : Nintendo has always owned Diddy and Dixie, Nintendo owns Camelot and HAL, and Nintendo has owned Monolith Soft since 2007. Once again, not the same. We're talking about Nintendo published third party games, not companies that Nintendo literally owns.

Also, decided to look into it and this is the Monster Hunter game Nintendo published:

Monster Hunter Stories - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The only Nintendo published Monster Hunter but not in Smash in any capacity. Not a good sign in light of everything else. All in all, it's a weird hill to die on, not even factoring in everything else regarding Capcom, especially all the Devil May Cry stuff that just kind of makes this awkward as all hell. You're right, a Monster Hunter rep isn't impossible but I wouldn't bet on it.

Nintendo doesn't own HAL though, they don't even own Camelot. And they didn't own Monolith FULLY till like 2012 (Bandai still had a good chunk of shares, 16% to help relations with a now majority Nintendo Monolithsoft, Nintendo bought out the remaining shares in 2012 which is why you saw Monolith develop games like Project X Zone 1 in 2012 and 2 in 2015 (which was likely in production since before the remaining buyout)). Since then Monolith has only produced Nintendo published games.

HAL and Camelot though, are literally nothing but close partners; just like IntSys and GameFreak. If you think Byleth is "3rd party", well then so are Kirby, Dedede, Meta Knight, Waluigi, Isaac, and if we go back far enough Dixie, and Diddy. And to a smaller extent, all the Pokemon.

And my entire point has been MH isn't impossible, in fact it has a decent shot. But I've literally been predicting Dante over MH. I just think you can't dismiss MH because of "base game content".

 

[Joshdabozz]

Nintendo doesn't own HAL though, they don't even own Camelot. And they didn't own Monolith FULLY till like 2012 (Bandai still had a good chunk of shares, 16% to help relations with a now majority Nintendo Monolithsoft, Nintendo bought out the remaining shares in 2012 which is why you saw Monolith develop games like Project X Zone 1 in 2012 and 2 in 2015 (which was likely in production since before the remaining buyout)). Since then Monolith has only produced Nintendo published games.

HAL and Camelot though, are literally nothing but close partners; just like IntSys and GameFreak. If you think Byleth is "3rd party", well then so are Kirby, Dedede, Meta Knight, Waluigi, Isaac, and if we go back far enough Dixie, and Diddy. And to a smaller extent, all the Pokemon.

And my entire point has been MH isn't impossible, in fact it has a decent shot. But I've literally been predicting Dante over MH. I just think you can't dismiss MH because of "base game content".

What you are describing is what is called a 2nd party.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Droodle I never said they were impossible, just highly improbable based on a wide variety of factors. Why play Devil's advocate for something you don't think is likely to begin with and ultimately agree with me on? That's literally arguing for the sake of arguing.

 

[Joshdabozz]

Droodle Fatmanonice Just so you guys know these are Nintendos 2nd party devs

Alphadream (Bankrupt)
Monolith Soft*
NDCube
Retro Studios
The Pokemon Company/ Creatures Inc./ GameFreak*
Grezzo
Good-Feel
Camelot
HAL Labatory*
Intelligent Systems*
Indieszero
Next-Level Games
Vanpool
Skip Ltd.
Akira

Its unkown if Velan Studios (Mario Kart Live devs) will be a second party, but the devs we care about that are second party have *s next to them, if theres more I will add them.

 

[TriggerX]

What you are describing is what is called a 2nd party.

Not really, Rare was a second party company because Nintendo owned some portion if not all of them.
I think Droodle is correct in that Hal is completely separate from Nintendo much like Gamefreak is.

Idk there seems to be conflicting information on the internet about it anyways so maybe Nintendo does own them in some capacity?

 

[Joshdabozz]

Not really, Rare was a second party company because Nintendo owned some portion if not all of them.
I think Droodle is correct in that Hal is completely separate from Nintendo much like Gamefreak is.

Idk there seems to be conflicting information on the internet about it anyways so maybe Nintendo does own them in some capacity?

Nintendo has a stake in the Pokemon Company im pretty sure, I may be wrong about that. Rare I believe was a 1st party before being bought, I may be wrong about that. HAL is a Nintendo only company, They have some sort of deal or Nintendo has a stake in them, its one of the two.

 

[Droodle]

Droodle I never said they were impossible, just highly improbable based on a wide variety of factors. Why play Devil's advocate for something you don't think is likely to begin with and ultimately agree with me on? That's literally arguing for the sake of arguing.

And I'm saying that "highly improbable" is also a bad term for it too considering all the advantages a potential MH rep has going for it at this time. The best way to put it imo, is that I think Dante is likelier; but I wouldn't be surprised if Monster Hunter makes it in over him. I have tons of Dante friends who think the exact same thing. The common consensus seems to be that exact same thing too.

I don't think there are many people out there that think MH in Smash would be a "surprising, little to no odds" pick; you're making MH in Smash sound like getting Sora into Smash (in terms of odds), when it's closer to getting something like Minecraft Steve over Master Chief. Funny thing is I remember arguing with people here about not discounting Minecraft Steve even if rumors point toward Master Chief, and look at how that turned out.

EDIT: None of the BIG (already present in Smash) companies have that 1 rep that could be the "only" possible pick, and everything else is SUPER improbable. I remember people arguing that RE was going to be a fighter in Pass 1, because "it's one of the last big JP series not in Smash", and look at how that turned out. Namco has Dark Souls, or Soul Calibur which could get in over Tales, Square Enix has god knows how many things that could get in over Geno, Capcom has MH and to a far lesser extent, AA that could get in over Dante, amongst others. It's not a situation where clearly the character that gets the most amount of discussion (even amongst insiders), means that everyone else from that company is super unlikely. Especially with how good Nintendo seems to be with leaks.

I personally don't think Steve is our big Western rep character like Banjo was. I mean yes, he IS a western character, but I honestly see him as a Hero-type character, one that has lots of popularity in one region or another and didn't have a big Smash fan following, memes aside. I think Geno would be the Banjo of this pass based on sheer Smash fan popularity alone. I will be honestly surprised if Crash is not in this pass because he seems like a no brainer choice, at least for me.

I wouldn't be against Arle but I also wouldn't be really that excited for her, personally.

I get where you're coming from; but Steve was wanted. He may not have done Crash/Banjo tiers in polls but he has placed really well in most polls since Smash 4; people like to ignore that because there were a ton of "Steve is a meme" comments all the way since then. But no, as likes prove Steve was definitely amongst the most wanted characters out there; it's just that a lot of people were against Steve, so you couldn't really talk about him that often without people being like "The Steve fanbase is just a way to counter Banjo, he's a meme. No one seriously wants him; etc". And I'm arguing we'll see a "reversal" of the last pass. I don't think Steve is exactly the "Banjo" of the pass, and I think DQ is a more accurate term.

But I'm arguing that if Steve was E3's 1st reveal, then I think we'll get a switch of the last pass (DQ being the huge Eastern series, Banjo being the Western fan request). With Steve being the huge Western series, and Arle being the huge Eastern fan request. I think Crash has a good shot too though, but I don't know if Sakurai/Nintendo would want to dip into 2 Western series. And with 4 slots left, someone has to get left behind. Though I think Crash could take Arle or Ryu Hayabusa/Dante/Lloyd. The only thing I feel super confident about is a whole new 1st party character, Square Enix, and that's it.

 

[TriggerX]

Nintendo has a stake in the Pokemon Company im pretty sure, I may be wrong about that, Rare I believe was a 1st party before being bought, I may be wrong about that, HAL is a Nintendo only company, They have some sort of deal or Nintendo has a stake in them, its one of the two.

The Pokémon company and Gamefreak aren’t the same company, but yea they share ownership of the Pokemon company with Nintendo.

Sure Hal has only made Nintendo games so far, but it’s not owned by Nintendo. They probably share some other company with Nintendo much like Gamefreak does with Pokemon.

My definition of second party companies would be any company that falls under the umbrella of a bigger company due to some percentage of ownership.
Hal and Gamefreak dont meet that criteria, although they share other companies with Nintendo that do.

 

[Joshdabozz]

The Pokémon company and Gamefreak aren’t the same company, but yea they share ownership of the Pokemon company with Nintendo.

Sure Hal has only made Nintendo games so far, but it’s not owned by Nintendo. They probably share some other company with Nintendo much like Gamefreak does with Pokemon.

My definition of second party companies would be any company that falls under the umbrella of a bigger company due to some percentage of ownership.
Hal and Gamefreak dont meet that criteria, although they share other companies with Nintendo that do.

just looked it up, Nintendo and HAL established Warpstar inc. (50%-50%) in 2001. Warpstar inc. manage Kirby's IP.

Edit: Gamefreak, Nintendo, and Creatures inc. all have a stake in TPC.

 

[Mr. Peepee]

Alright everybody, place your bets. Who do you think is getting buffed or nerfed.

https://twitter.com/NintendoEurope/status/1313811569302798336?s=20

 

[Penguinbowler]

I still think Sylux has a chance, especially if a Metroid Prime 4 reveal happens eventually.

 

[xNovaNebulax]

Alright everybody, place your bets. Who do you think is getting buffed or nerfed.

https://twitter.com/NintendoEurope/status/1313811569302798336?s=20

i have no idea
but if i dont see
-removed Herobrine in the patch notes
ill cry /jk

 

[JarBear]

Better nerf Greninja.

 

[Mr. Peepee]

I want Hero, Banjo, and Mario to be buffed, please

 

[TriggerX]

just looked it up, Nintendo and HAL established Warpstar inc. (50%-50%) in 2001. Warpstar inc. manage Kirby's IP.

Edit: Gamefreak, Nintendo, and Creatures inc. all have a stake in TPC.

Sounds about right. Which means there’s nothing that stops Hal or Gamefreak from developing games for other consoles. IE: Little Town Hero. That’s why in my opinion it’s inaccurate to label a company like Hal or Gamefreak as second party developers for Nintendo.

 

[Firox]

Better nerf Greninja.

DON'T YOU PUT THAT EVIL ON ME, RICKY BOBBY! DON'T YOU PUT THAT EVIL ON ME!!!

 

[Joshdabozz]

Sounds about right. Which means there’s nothing that stops Hal or Gamefreak from developing games for other consoles. IE: Little Town Hero. That’s why in my opinion it’s inaccurate to label a company like Hal or Gamefreak as second party developers for Nintendo.

1-Up studio, HAL, Gamefreak, Nintendo EPD, and Nintendo PTD share a building together, this shows how close of a relationship they have, I believe Nintendo basically provides HAL and Gamefreak with resources.

Also I think we will have minor changes this patch, not many.

 

[StarLight42]

Is this the Geno thread or the Monster Hunter thread?

 

[xNovaNebulax]

Is this the Geno thread or the Monster Hunter thread?

honestly i have no idea lol

 

[Deleted member]

Mario to be buffed, please

stop right there, criminal scum.

I want them to nerf Monster Hunter, he is too strong in the Geno thread meta.

 

[7NATOR]

Like Geno Himself, his thread can take the shape of anything it likes

 

[Joshdabozz]

Is this the Geno thread or the Monster Hunter thread?

Like Geno Himself, his thread can take the shape of anything it likes

This thread has become a, who do we think will happen thread, 1/4 of the time its people saying there predictions, 1/4 of the time its a Mii costume theroy thread, 1/4 of the Time its a Monster Hunter thread, 1/4 of the time its a speculation thread, but ITS A GENO THREAD AT HEART BABY!!!!!

 

[Mr. Peepee]

This is a normal speculation thread that has Geno as the mascot. Boom easy answer.

 

[MattX20]

I really can't see Geno as the last fighter/FP11.

 

[egaddmario]

I want Hero, Banjo, and Mario to be buffed, please

Um, hello, BASED DEPARTMENT?

 

[Fatmanonice]

And I'm saying that "highly improbable" is also a bad term for it too considering all the advantages a potential MH rep has going for it at this time. The best way to put it imo, is that I think Dante is likelier; but I wouldn't be surprised if Monster Hunter makes it in over him. I have tons of Dante friends who think the exact same thing. The common consensus seems to be that exact same thing too.

I don't think there are many people out there that think MH in Smash would be a "surprising, little to no odds" pick; you're making MH in Smash sound like getting Sora into Smash (in terms of odds), when it's closer to getting something like Minecraft Steve over Master Chief. Funny thing is I remember arguing with people here about not discounting Minecraft Steve even if rumors point toward Master Chief, and look at how that turned out.

The argument was never Steve or Chief, it was the unlikelihood of Steve without Chief. Like I talked about earlier today, we've yet to have a company represented without its main mascot in tow, heavily suggesting Chief is still coming.

As for Monster Hunter, the argument wasn't "just because of base content", it was because of how much and how it by far had the most of any third party franchise without a playable character. Beyond that:

-Smash has yet to have a "blank slate" third party character like Villager. Steve is the closest thing we've gotten but Steve is still a character. Same with Alex. There's no distinctive Monster Hunter in the mainline games. Even the Dragon Quest Heroes have default names and appearances. On that note...

-Here's Monster Hunter in Marvel vs Capcom Infinite:

Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite – Monster Hunter Gameplay Trailer | PS4

https://www.playstation.com/en-us/games/marvel-vs-capcom-infinite-ps4/ A monster hunter from Val Habar, the nomadic desert town that fused with Wakanda. Mons...

m.youtube.com

Seem familiar? She uses a long bow, short range slash attacks, and a giant sword that more or less doubles as both a lance and an axe. I mean, seriously, look at her moveset and some of her animations are almost exactly like Byleth's:

Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite - Monster Hunter Tutorial

With six characters joining the Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite roster, we're continuing our series on giving an overview of their varying playstyles. We hope th...

m.youtube.com

She's also wearing the Rathalos armor which kind of drives the point in further...

-The most iconic Monster Hunter character is already in Smash... It's Rathalos.

Rathalos

Terrible wyverns called "Kings of the Skies". Along with Rathians, they stake wide territories centered around their nests. Rathalos descend on invaders from the sky, attacking with poison claws and breath of fire.MHGU Description Rathalos are male Flying Wyverns introduced in Monster Hunter...

monsterhunter.fandom.com

Rathalos is the only monster that has appeared in every game, including the spin-offs. In a way, having Rathalos as a boss is honestly the best way they could have represented Monster Hunter because, like Pokemon, nobody gives a **** about the people. The main draw is the monsters and brutally killing them and having Rathalos as a major boss encompasses that perfectly.

 

[AdamBel731]

In terms of first party representatives, I still think Sylux not having a Spirit in the game is crazy suspicious. Yeah Porky doesn't have one either, but Porky also likely doesn't have a brand new triple A game coming out where is he likely the antagonist. Sylux was the most popular hunter in, well, Prime Hunters, and then Tanabe, Federation Force, and even Prime 3 have been setting up Sylux to be the big main bad.

Sylux could just be added through a Spirit event with the snap of fingers (maybe he and some other Metroid Spirits will be added alongside the ever elusive Prime Trilogy), but I think Sylux is a decent possibility if this DLC is going until 2021. Though if they kept the Sylux Spirit from the base game and Prime 4 was delayed and supposedly Prime Trilogy by proxy, then maybe he is probably just a Spirit.

I think Sylux, Bandana Dee, Dixie Kong, another Xenoblade rep, and Waluigi are the most likely first party representatives. Another Zelda character I am unsure on for a few reasons. It really depends on what Nintendo wants to market in Ultimate and what game they want to push to the forefront.

 

[Mr. Peepee]

Everybody be really writing 6-page essays on Geno.

 

[7NATOR]

In terms of first party representatives, I still think Sylux not having a Spirit in the game is crazy suspicious. Yeah Porky doesn't have one either, but Porky also likely doesn't have a brand new triple A game coming out where is he likely the antagonist. Sylux was the most popular hunter in, well, Prime Hunters, and then Tanabe, Federation Force, and even Prime 3 have been setting up Sylux to be the big main bad.

Sylux could just be added through a Spirit event with the snap of fingers (maybe he and some other Metroid Spirits will be added alongside the ever elusive Prime Trilogy), but I think Sylux is a decent possibility if this DLC is going until 2021. Though if they kept the Sylux Spirit from the base game and Prime 4 was delayed and supposedly Prime Trilogy by proxy, then maybe he is probably just a Spirit.

I think Sylux, Bandana Dee, Dixie Kong, another Xenoblade rep, and Waluigi are the most likely first party representatives. Another Zelda character I am unsure on for a few reasons. It really depends on what Nintendo wants to market in Ultimate and what game they want to push to the forefront.

I'll be honest, since we're getting Characters like Min-Min who had spirits in the game already, It honestly makes characters that didn't have spirits look less likely than more likely, since it seems there weren't Important enough to even get Spirits.

And Honestly For Porky, At this point it did seem that The Absolute Safe Capsule was to represent Porky. I do think it's weird they didn't have Normal Porky Spirit, but it's what it is