My best guess is:
And in no particular order,
- Arle Nadja
- Square Enix Rep (Geno, 2B, Bravely etc)
- Ryu Hayabusa/Dante/Lloyd
- Rex and Pyra/MonolithSoft rep
Explanations
Arle Nadja: I honestly think people underestimate Arle a ton, I think she has the potential to be the
BANJO of this pass. Well, not exactly for us; but in Japan she's probably the "biggest never-ever" left, she's been highly requested since Smash 4 (and maybe even before that), and has consistently been at the top of the speculation scene for a long, long time. There is no way Nintendo hasn't noticed her popularity over there yet. I think Smash also tries to reach for new audiences with
MOST of the DLC and having a Puyo Puyo character would definitely bring in a new audience to Smash. Sakurai could probably think of clever ways to translate her puzzle mechanics, as well as give her the RPG spells to make for a interesting playstyle. Besides if the rumors surrounding Reimu are anything to go by (but she's a mii costume), I think she would fit in really well with Arle's wave.
Square-Enix character: I think it's most likely Geno, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone else gets in over him. In particular 2B, Bravely, Lara Croft and Crono are still possible and to a lesser extent Neku Sakuraba. If we follow patterns, then the mii costumes
should return with Square-Enix's 2nd character; but at the same time if we also follow patterns, Nintendo/Square always picks their biggest hitters in terms of Smash so far. We got Cloud in Smash 4, and Hero in Smash Ultimate; both of which are industry icons. While I don't really think that a ton of the other
non-FF characters are nearly as big, you cannot deny the iconicity of Lara Croft; who is a HUGE character or 2B who is a pretty big modern icon.
While Lara Croft's Smash fanbase is middling, and really low in Japan, we have had non-"requested" character in Smash before as DLC and there are probably some locations where she's huge (like Terry). 2B's biggest obstacle is the lack of a Nintendo connection, but I think that "rule" is just hanging on by a thread; Nier is probably the series Square is the most interested in expanding currently. Bravely is just about to get a new game on the Switch and Asano has been supporting Nintendo systems for the last decade, we already know after Bravely that a new Octopath is coming out. And a Job Switching mechanic sounds like something right up Sakurai's alley. And Crono is an anomaly, outside of Sora (who is understandable), Crono is the only character from the Seven Squares who's game doesn't have
any content in Smash. If the leaks are true, we know that Sora was at the very least planned for; which makes Chrono Trigger's lack in Smash even more of an anomaly. He's been inactive for a long time just like Geno, but I am pretty sure there are a lot of people out there that would consider Smash X Chrono Trigger a bigger headline than Smash X SMRPG. Neku makes sense from a promotional standpoint due to the very likely sequel, and the upcoming anime adaptation.
Ryu Hayabusa/Dante/Lloyd: I'm unsure of which one would get in, but maybe we'll get 2 of them? I think Ryu Hayabusa has the best shot with all the things pointing towards him after Steve (especially the early "leak"). Koei Tecmo missing a fighter, is probably the only thing that's more surprising than Namco not getting a second one. They've been close to Nintendo forever, and have worked on a lot of 1st party stuff like Fire Emblem and Hyrule Warriors.I think the trilogy collection got leaked, which is another bonus point for Hayabusa.
I don't think we'd get BOTH Dante/Lloyd though. Primarily because I feel as though Nintendo tries to go for "different gimmicks" with each fighter, and I think Devil Trigger and Overlimit would likely share a lot of similarities. Both would likely be a gauge that grant them more speed/power/and new attacks, obviously though we could get a scenario where Devil Trigger is Dante's Final Smash and a style gauge is his gimmick, so then Lloyd could have access to overlimit; but I don't really think they'd do that. If we do get Ryu + 1 more of these then I'd replace Arle with that.
Rex and Pyra/MonolithSoft Rep: I think we'll probably end off the pass with a more recent 1st party character; I know Papa thinks that they wouldn't do that, "they'll end off Ultimate on a high note"; but I doubt it. They were literally ready to end off Ultimate with Byleth, who is far more controversial. Rex and Pyra have tons of requests in Japan, and a good amount over here too. After Min Min, I think we'll probably get them. Some people always bring up the excuse that "they got a mii costume as DLC so they'd never happen", but is it really such a big deal? We know the mii costume was in fact meant for base because Nia's costume is already present there.
And sure, maybe that really means they are disconfirmed for whatever reason. But then you open up the possibility of us getting Lora and Jin instead, who were the main characters of the DLC/standalone game; XC 2 Torna has had no content since release either, and Octopath Traveler showcases that they have no problems giving spirit events years down the line (and we already passed Torna's 2nd year anniversary last month, unlike Octopath which got a spirit event to celebrate it's 2nd year). And heck if we go for a "promotional" pick for next year, MonolithSoft has had a unknown action game in the works for around 4 years at this point; and according to interviews, Xenoblade 3 should be deep into development now (started in 2018), either one of those games could release next year. The point is that getting a Monolith/Xeno rep in some way is super likely.
Honorable Mentions: Crash, Zelda rep, Yuri Lowell, Monster Hunter, any character from Nihon Falcom, and more.
Crash: There is no proof that the document is real and the source is very much "Dude, trust me bro". Maybe it is, but who knows. Even if it is, there is always the chance of a Crash mii costume or a spirit event. I think Steve was our big Western Rep for the pass, and heck the trailer even had some emphasis on Mario and Sonic.
Zelda Rep: BoTW 2 will be huge, but I don't think they'll go for a Zelda character; especially after giving us a Zelda costume as a bonus for this pass.
Yuri Lowell: I think Lloyd is more likely.
Monster Hunter: Good shot, wouldn't be surprised if it makes it in.
Nihon Falcom: Huge SNK-like legacy, but with 4 slots left; I don't know about their chances. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a spirit event of Ys or Trails down the line though. Even some Mii costumes.
. I think he'll either be the TGA reveal, E3 2021, or the final character. He could fit anywhere
