Fatmanonice
Banned via Warnings
Posted this on Star Road earlier but I figured I'd bring it here. This is an update of something I did before Byleth was announced. Basically we determined a long time ago that Sakurai and co typically work on three characters at any given time when it comes to DLC. We have a strong idea about this for several reasons:
-Lucas, Roy, and Ryu were all datamined in April 2015 and released together in June 2015.
-Three "Marios" were found in Smash 4's code shortly after E3 2015.
-Cloud, Corrin, and Bayo were all formally shown off together in the December 2015 Smash Presentation.
-Plant, Joker, and Hero were in Ultimate's code in December 2018.
-Sakurai sent out a message to Japanese fans on Twitter in December 2018 noting that the first three characters of the Fighter's Pass were being worked on. (Pushdustin tweeted about it but I can't the tweet and searching Twitter is a pain in the ass without an account)
Beyond this, there seems to be a sort of "cool down/polish" period where characters are presentable and only need minor debugging and other characters are more focused on. There also appears to be a period before a character starts official development. I usually refer to this as "greenlighting" but it's more like character concept creation and negotiating/working with the original character creators to determine how they will be in Smash. We have an idea on these for several reasons:
-December 2018, Sakurai mentioned that he was working on the first three characters of the Fighter's Pass. Strangely didn't mention Plant.
-Apparently Banjo was being worked on in some capacity in December 2018 but wasn't in the game's code yet.
-Of the ones Sakurai has openly confirmed, Banjo's presentation was recorded shortly after Hero's release (August 2019), Terry after Banjo's (September), Byleth after Terry (November), and Min Min in early May 2020.
So, with all this on the table, let's map out a theoretical timeline for Smash Ultimate's DLC:
November 2018: Plant, Joker (both already in the game's code), Hero (in concept creation stage). Sakurai publicly announces that all the characters in the Fighter's Pass have been chosen.
December 2018: Plant (polish stage), Joker, Hero, (all in the game's code) and Banjo (concept stage)
January 2019: Nintendo finds out about the DLC datamines and begins to heavily encrypt updates to prevent future leaks.
February 2019: Joker (polish stage), Hero, Banjo, Terry (concept stage)
April 2019: Hero (polish stage), Banjo, Terry, Byleth (concept stage)
June 2019: Hero is pushed back to July for unknown reasons.
July 2019: Banjo (polish stage), Terry, Byleth, Min Min (concept stage)
September 2019: Terry (polish stage), Byleth, Min Min, 7 (concept stage). Sakurai announces more characters will be coming after the Fighter's Pass.
November 2019: Byleth (polish stage) ,Min Min, 7, 8 (concept stage)
December 2019: Byleth's announcement is pushed back to January for unknown reasons.
January 2020: Min Min (polish stage), 7, 8, 9 (concept stage). Sakurai formally announces Season 2 and notes all characters have already been decided.
March 2020: It's publicly announced 6 is delayed to June. Cites programming/balancing issues.
June 2020: 7 (polish stage), 8, 9, 10 (concept stage)
This is where we theoretically should be right now. Based on past precedent, 7 has likely been in a presentable state since late June/early July. Because it's been almost 3 months with no real update, we don't know what the team does during significant delays but the default theory is that they don't work on anybody new until someone else is released. This said, 7 is more than likely completely and totally done and 8 probably won't be too far behind, likely resembling how Hero and Banjo were only roughly a month apart because Hero's release was pushed from June to July for unknown reasons. This potentially establishs the theory that 7 will either be late September or early October and, in tandem, 8 will be early or mid November.
-Lucas, Roy, and Ryu were all datamined in April 2015 and released together in June 2015.
-Three "Marios" were found in Smash 4's code shortly after E3 2015.
-Cloud, Corrin, and Bayo were all formally shown off together in the December 2015 Smash Presentation.
-Plant, Joker, and Hero were in Ultimate's code in December 2018.
-Sakurai sent out a message to Japanese fans on Twitter in December 2018 noting that the first three characters of the Fighter's Pass were being worked on. (Pushdustin tweeted about it but I can't the tweet and searching Twitter is a pain in the ass without an account)
Beyond this, there seems to be a sort of "cool down/polish" period where characters are presentable and only need minor debugging and other characters are more focused on. There also appears to be a period before a character starts official development. I usually refer to this as "greenlighting" but it's more like character concept creation and negotiating/working with the original character creators to determine how they will be in Smash. We have an idea on these for several reasons:
-December 2018, Sakurai mentioned that he was working on the first three characters of the Fighter's Pass. Strangely didn't mention Plant.
-Apparently Banjo was being worked on in some capacity in December 2018 but wasn't in the game's code yet.
-Of the ones Sakurai has openly confirmed, Banjo's presentation was recorded shortly after Hero's release (August 2019), Terry after Banjo's (September), Byleth after Terry (November), and Min Min in early May 2020.
So, with all this on the table, let's map out a theoretical timeline for Smash Ultimate's DLC:
November 2018: Plant, Joker (both already in the game's code), Hero (in concept creation stage). Sakurai publicly announces that all the characters in the Fighter's Pass have been chosen.
December 2018: Plant (polish stage), Joker, Hero, (all in the game's code) and Banjo (concept stage)
January 2019: Nintendo finds out about the DLC datamines and begins to heavily encrypt updates to prevent future leaks.
February 2019: Joker (polish stage), Hero, Banjo, Terry (concept stage)
April 2019: Hero (polish stage), Banjo, Terry, Byleth (concept stage)
June 2019: Hero is pushed back to July for unknown reasons.
July 2019: Banjo (polish stage), Terry, Byleth, Min Min (concept stage)
September 2019: Terry (polish stage), Byleth, Min Min, 7 (concept stage). Sakurai announces more characters will be coming after the Fighter's Pass.
November 2019: Byleth (polish stage) ,Min Min, 7, 8 (concept stage)
December 2019: Byleth's announcement is pushed back to January for unknown reasons.
January 2020: Min Min (polish stage), 7, 8, 9 (concept stage). Sakurai formally announces Season 2 and notes all characters have already been decided.
March 2020: It's publicly announced 6 is delayed to June. Cites programming/balancing issues.
June 2020: 7 (polish stage), 8, 9, 10 (concept stage)
This is where we theoretically should be right now. Based on past precedent, 7 has likely been in a presentable state since late June/early July. Because it's been almost 3 months with no real update, we don't know what the team does during significant delays but the default theory is that they don't work on anybody new until someone else is released. This said, 7 is more than likely completely and totally done and 8 probably won't be too far behind, likely resembling how Hero and Banjo were only roughly a month apart because Hero's release was pushed from June to July for unknown reasons. This potentially establishs the theory that 7 will either be late September or early October and, in tandem, 8 will be early or mid November.
Last edited:
) should be in for ONE reason. He is too cool: 
