(2) Waluigi: He's Schrodinger's Smash Character: a full paradox that would work well as a closer for the DLC cycle, but I can see it happening alongside the celebration + biggest fan demand out there. I think it's a wait and see on him, though...
(7) Paper Mario: A tear-ible idea (see what I did there... ), but for one single reason: every time someone grabs this character, they use the most recent incarnation mostly, which would make people more angry than happy. With this in mind, I don't see Paper Mario being able to offer something new that isn't already available in Ultimate already because of this.
(5) Bandana Waddle Dee / LoLoLo & LaLaLa: I see him lower on my list, because I don't see him higher on fan request than other characters + Kirby isn't really a franchise that would get the priority in the "promotional pick" department. Though, if the rumors about the Iwata tribute have weight, I could see that reason alone making one of them happen.
(1) Xenoblade Rep: Let me say this: I honestly will be surprised if we don't get another Xenoblade Rep until the end of DLC cycle, since it hits all of the checkboxes for a GOOD promotional and fan pick: Up and coming franchise? Check. Has a new game in last few years or coming up? Check for both. Would improve awareness overall? Check. Characters will still be relevant to the franchise in the future? Check. Can bring new content to the table? Check. Offers a new and unique play style? Check. Was one of the characters that people really wanted as character for base game? Check. Franchise is missing at least one Spirit Event? Check.
Isn't competing with a Fire Emblem rep for the 4th time in a row? Check. But, which one? Let's go into specifics:
- (1st) Rex and Pyra: For me, I consider them the most likely of the 2 because there's extra checkboxes they fill: Sakurai has expressed interest in including them? Check. Most recent new entry in the series? Check. Only got screwed over by bad timing? Check. The thing here is not about "Rex and Pyra deserves"a spot": I just see a lot of good arguments and strong evidence that could benefit them in the long run, just like how I think about Geno right now.
- (2nd) Elma: On another hand, there's some uniques attributes that Elma can bring to the table as well: Can bring new content from a game with little content in Smash? Check. Dual Wielding Guns & Swords? Check. Brings diversity to Smash's roster? Check.
At the end of the day, it's up to two things: Which game is or will be the most recent in the series and does Sakurai's still wants Rex?
(4) Dixie Kong: I'm divided on her: on one side, fan request is one of the biggest out there and promotion is possible; on the other, I think there's characters that have a better combo than her right now on both fronts.
BOTW2 / Zelda Rep: I don't think it's happening because of the fact that the Ancient Gear was the bonus costume (same reason I didn't consider Rex for Pass 1), plus BOTW as a whole already got good representation in Smash. Wouldn't mind it, though.
(3) Isaac: Considering the rumors of Golden Sun receiving a HD remake, I think Isaac is a character that can really be a front runner if Nintendo has long-term plans for Golden Sun, since it would fill almost the same boxes as a Xenoblade rep + Isaac has been one huge fan request for a while, so he would really go a long way on both fronts. However, it all depends if the series gets a second chance...
(8) Any Pokémon: I don't have any personal attachment to any Pokémon post Gen 7. Considering TPC, they will always go for the newer ones, so it's nothing that gets me excited. Honestly, I think Pokémon is the second most unlikely of my list, because I think fan request is really smaller compared to others on the list + a promotional pick from them won't do anything of value right now (other than divide people once again).
(6) Ring Fit / New Character from unreleased game: Another odd one for me because it all depends if they want to push a new game or IP. That's also why I placed Ring Fit here, but they are the front runner in this category for me, since it also gained some decent fan following.