Decided to copy and paste this from my most recent status because it's not only related to Geno but this is one of the few threads I can actually post theorycraft without people tearing their clothes in anguish and screaming into the sky:
"Normally don't do theorycrafting in my status but I wanted to share something that's relevant to a good number of popular fanbases. One of the common criticisms I get is that I have mentioned four characters have been prevalent in insider circles since fall 2018: Waluigi, Geno, Lloyd, and Ryu Hayabusa (now a split argument of whether he was leakbait for Byleth so I won't go into him). "Okay, smartass, if they've been heard so long... Where are they?" While typing something up in the Dixie thread today, I came to realize that most of the third party and DLC characters throughout Smash history have a seemingly intentional timing to them. These can be split up into three categories: promoting major projects in the works, promoting an upcoming game even if it's just a rerelease, and to be part of certain anniversary celebrations. Before I start, I want to say that Plant, Mewtwo, Lucas, Roy, and Min Min were probably released "just because" and the only third party character I think was added just for the hell of it was Ken. This all said, let me break it down by category:
Major upcoming project: Snake (MGS4), Ryu (Street Fighter V), Cloud (FF VII Remake)
Upcoming game release: Sonic (Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games), Pac-Man (Japanese release of Pac-Man and the Ghostly Adventures), Corrin (Western release of Fire Emblem Fates), Bayonetta (Bayonetta 2 rerelease), Joker (Persona 5 Scramble and Persona 5 R), Hero (DQ XI S), Byleth (Three Houses DLC)
This all said, this seems very, very intentional, especially for third party characters.
Commerorating an Anniversary: Megaman (part of the 25th anniversary), Simon/Richter (part of Konami's 50th anniversary), Banjo (part of the 20th anniversary), Terry (interesting enough, was not only released super close to the 28th anniversary of Fatal Fury but the 20th anniversary of Garou: Mark of the Wolves, which is a Fatal Fury spin-off that Terry stars in)
With these mentioned, these bring up some very interesting prospects for four evergreen characters in Smash speculation: Waluigi, Lloyd, Dixie, and Geno and I'll go into all of them focusing just on these topics.
Waluigi: pretty straight forward, 35th Super Mario anniversary and, coincidentally, Waluigi's 20th birthday is next Tuesday. I don't care how you feel about him, you have to admit that would be pretty cool if they planned this all along.
Lloyd: 25th anniversary of Tales and Namco has been hardcore teasing announcement since literally January. The Tales stuff leaked last September so it heavily implies is there's going to be several major announcements later this year. Also, I know not everyone is a Tales fan but the actual 25th anniversary isn't until December, part of the reason why Lloyd was part of my theorycraft for 5 and why he's part of my theorycraft for 9.
Dixie: I went into it in both the Geno thread and Dixie but there's been rumblings of "something" major being announced soon for the DK series since November and recently it's hit a fever pitch. Especially with the strong [word redacted] that the game is strictly first party and the first non-buck passed DK adventure since Jungle Beat, I could easily see them using Smash to promote. If Nintendo can do this for Fire Emblem Fates and Three Square Meals a Day, they can certainly do it for DK.
Geno: this one is particularly interesting because, as someone pointed out in the Geno thread the other day, Square doesn't believe in free lunches. Cloud promotes FF VII Remake, Hero promotes DQ XI S, Hero's costumes promoted not only DQ XI S but the rereleases of DQ I-III, two Square spirit events that promote Octopath Traveler and Trials of Mana, and even Geno's Mii costume in Smash 4 promoted the January 2016 release of SMRPG on the Wii U VC. In short, pretty much everything they've added is specifically an ad for something coming up or something that can be bought right now with minimal effort. This said, if Geno were to come to Smash, he wouldn't be promoting SMRPG on the NSO because that's a free service and free makes Square Enix break out in hives. This means that Geno would be tied to... Something... that requires people to break out the ol' debit card. What could this be? Time will tell, if at all.
Also, yes, I know there's other major anniversaries and game releases coming up but these were the four I wanted to focus on because, honestly, all four have had dedicated fanbases since the Brawl Speculation days and it would be pretty cool if things panned out for most, if not all, of them in the upcoming year and a half."
