I see people still say that it has to be 7 with Geno or else he is not in. "rubs face. in frustration concidering, he could be last for what we know"
While I agree with you that Geno doesn't HAVE to be #7, I will point out that his chances decrease significantly for every new addition that isn't him. Why?
A) If there's any veracity to Cacomallow, then it would be highly unlikely that Geno and his accompanying Mallow costume would be MIA for up to TWO YEARS from the time of the leak. Granted, the leak could be bogus and have no real weight towards his inclusion, however, I would argue that if ALL of our known costume leaks are fake, then it would reduce Geno's chances down to the same as any other spirit.
B) If FP#2 follows any of the conventions of FP#1, then Geno would be considered the hail mary fan pick, akin to B-K. I doubt that Nintendo would save that for last since they are infamous for going out on a dud. Even if they broke the mold and went out on a complete ball-buster, I would think someone like Master Chief or Doomslayer would fit that slot better.
C) Simple statistics. Every slot that isn't Geno can only hurt his chances at worst or keep them the same at best. For example, if the next 4 characters are Gen 8 Pokerep, Rex, Lloyd and Dixie (hypothetically of course), that would mean that Geno is competing against Shantae, Rayman, Crash, Doomslayer, Dante, etc. etc. etc. and the entire cast of SE for the last spot. Not very good odds all things considered. Granted, this heavily depends on whatever patterns, if any, FP#2 gives us. For example, if the first 5 reveals are all first-party, Geno's chances will be pretty dismal. If at least one is Third-party, his chances remain relatively unchanged. If one of them ends up as another SE character and his costume STILL doesn't show up, then either he's in for sure or doesn't get in at all. In short, there are a lot of variables still to consider, but the longer we go without Geno, the more cynical our chances are going to look.
In short, you're right, he doesn't have to be #7...or 8 or even 9, but I'm gonna be sweating bullets if we get to 10 and he still hasn't shown up.
DISCLAIMER: All of these "probabilities" I refer to are entirely speculatory in nature since the pass is actually decided already. Sakurai already knows our fate 100%. These are just what I call "chances of expectation". Meaning, how likely we can expect someone but obviously there can always be twists, turns and exceptions to any pattern as with how FP#1 was all third party until the very end.