Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[Fatmanonice]

I'm am in such disbelief that Geno could come to the game that Sakurai could come over to my house, show me a 3D model of Geno on my computer and I'd think he'd be pranking me.

That's kind of been the story with Smash Ultimate for a lot of fanbases. Ridley and Banjo weren't believed until they literally happened. I've shared my story about Banjo many times but it still kind of floors me that, despite insiders and even retailers not being able to STFU about him last year, a good chunk of people didn't believe he would happen until his actual trailer. The sheer number of dog whistles for Banjo last year was pretty annoying and I'm glad things are different this year. If there's been dog whistles for any sort of upcoming Smash character, they were primarily back in December and January so I'm happy people backed off instead of what happened with Banjo and how people were hard hinting at him literally days before his reveal.

 

[Kremling Kommander]

June.

It’s happening.

 

[MattX20]

That's kind of been the story with Smash Ultimate for a lot of fanbases. Ridley and Banjo weren't believed until they literally happened. I've shared my story about Banjo many times but it still kind of floors me that, despite insiders and even retailers not being able to STFU about him last year, a good chunk of people didn't believe he would happen until his actual trailer. The sheer number of dog whistles for Banjo last year was pretty annoying and I'm glad things are different this year. If there's been dog whistles for any sort of upcoming Smash character, they were primarily back in December and January so I'm happy people backed off instead of what happened with Banjo and how people were hard hinting at him literally days before his reveal.

I imagine the same kind of reactions will occur when a Geno reveal drops.

 

[MisterMike]

There is no competition with Geno and Paper Mario. There is nothing either side needs to worry about.


Now, Paper Geno, on the other hand.

Dread it, run from it. Destiny still arrives...

 

[MattX20]

In any case, compared to what we had to go through from December 2018 to E3 2019, the wait is nowhere near as long, nor is the speculation driven by toxic level of bandwagoning over codenames, so it's a huge improvement.

 

[Polarthief]

June.
View attachment 272603
It’s happening.

June will truly be a bloodbath to be remembered, especially if we get 2 reveals (excluding the ARMS rep). I'm really itching to know who will get the envelope(s), and who will be facedown in the dirt afterwards.

That's kind of been the story with Smash Ultimate for a lot of fanbases. Ridley and Banjo weren't believed until they literally happened. I've shared my story about Banjo many times but it still kind of floors me that, despite insiders and even retailers not being able to STFU about him last year, a good chunk of people didn't believe he would happen until his actual trailer. The sheer number of dog whistles for Banjo last year was pretty annoying and I'm glad things are different this year. If there's been dog whistles for any sort of upcoming Smash character, they were primarily back in December and January so I'm happy people backed off instead of what happened with Banjo and how people were hard hinting at him literally days before his reveal.

Honestly, because it's so hard to believe. I had hope but when I saw Hero, I was disappointed throughout the rest of the direct, until I saw the Jiggy bouncing on the screen.

 

[Springwood Slasher]

With only 7 days left to go for May, it's going to be a tense few weeks for speculation for the presentation/"direct"

Honestly, I feel like that will be a welcome change. Most of 2020 has been pretty barren for juicy news (aside from any info from Fatman or Jeff Grubb or that whole MandyCan excitement in Jan). It will be good for us to kick the speculation into high gear

 

[MattX20]

Honestly, I feel like that will be a welcome change. Most of 2020 has been pretty barren for juicy news (aside from any info from Fatman or Jeff Grubb or that whole MandyCan excitement in Jan). It will be good for us to kick the speculation into high gear

Or at the very least, a healthier speculation cycle

 

[DarkShadow20]

So is everyone expecting mid June for the Arms reveal, or early/late June?

 

[Fatmanonice]

I was originally guessing three characters for "E3" but I'm starting to get cold feet because I'm genuinely surprised that there aren't a lot of people hard hinting at things like last year. Granted, we're still like about three weeks away from the Smash reveals so my doubts could evaporate in a week's time. I'm still sticking with 6 and 7 practically being a lock at this point though.

 

[Polarthief]

So is everyone expecting mid June for the Arms reveal, or early/late June?

Earlier than later for sure. I don't see it going past June 12th at the absolute latest.

I was originally guessing three characters for "E3" but I'm starting to get cold feet because I'm genuinely surprised that there aren't a lot of people hard hinting at things like last year. Granted, we're still like about three weeks away from the Smash reveals so my doubts could evaporate in a week's time. I'm still sticking with 6 and 7 practically being a lock at this point though.

It honestly depends how they wanna handle it. Sakurai video? I don't see more than 2. Direct? I could totally see 3, maybe even with a bonus. I'm not setting any expectations past ARMS+1 right now. If #7 isn't revealed, I will be royally pissed for making us wait this long for the first reveal. 25% of their deadline, wasted on one character? There's just no way. They can buy so much time for the later reveals by showing off 7 and 8.

 

[MattX20]

I was originally guessing three characters for "E3" but I'm starting to get cold feet because I'm genuinely surprised that there aren't a lot of people hard hinting at things like last year. Granted, we're still like about three weeks away from the Smash reveals so my doubts could evaporate in a week's time. I'm still sticking with 6 and 7 practically being a lock at this point though.

Yep, I've been expecting two reveals for a long while now, and we'll likely find out who FP8 is in the fall.

 

[MisterMike]

So is everyone expecting mid June for the Arms reveal, or early/late June?

I'm thinking early/mid June. If this reveal is anything like Byleth's reveal back in January, and they're intending to reveal and release them within the same month, then it stands to reason the reveal would be early with a couple weeks of waiting prior to it's actual release.

I was originally guessing three characters for "E3" but I'm starting to get cold feet because I'm genuinely surprised that there aren't a lot of people hard hinting at things like last year. Granted, we're still like about three weeks away from the Smash reveals so my doubts could evaporate in a week's time. I'm still sticking with 6 and 7 practically being a lock at this point though.

While I'd love to have FP7 confirmed right after the ARMS Fighter gets revealed, saving us months of speculating and rumor-mongering, I think it's more likely we'll just get the ARMS Fighter, with the next fighter not being revealed until maybe early/mid September. Assuming they'll even bother to do a Fall Direct, of course.

 

[Enigma735]

On the other hand, fan demand also seems to be their only reason for making the deluxe mii costumes. Sans and CupHead are really popular. That's why I think Lloyd, Geno and Monster Hunter could be our next deluxe costumes. At this point, I'm looking forward the June direct, not because of the Arms character, but because I want to know who's the next deluxe costume.

The difference is that Sans And Cuphead's popularity is more recent, whereas Geno's popularity has been around before Brawl, especially considering both Undertale And Cuphead released after the Smash Ballot had ended. It takes years for fan demand to be heard for a fully playable character. It took almost two decades of requests for Ridley, King K. Rool, and Banjo to be heard until they were just now finally included. That is why I don't think characters like Ryu Hayabusa, Doom Slayer, and as much as I hate to admit it, Crash have much of a shot is because while they are iconic and important to the video game industry, their popularity is more recent and its unlikely fans have been vocal enough for these characters to already get their voices heard. On top of that, Sans And Cuphead are indie characters and I'm pretty sure it must have been a struggle to work with a small team of people rather then a full on company.

 

[pinshadow]

I'm thinking early/mid June. If this reveal is anything like Byleth's reveal back in January, and they're intending to reveal and release them within the same month, then it stands to reason the reveal would be early with a couple weeks of waiting prior to it's actual release.


While I'd love to have FP7 confirmed right after the ARMS Fighter gets revealed, saving us months of speculating and rumor-mongering, I think it's more likely we'll just get the ARMS Fighter, with the next fighter not being revealed until maybe early/mid September. Assuming they'll even bother to do a Fall Direct, of course.

I really don't see the rest of the fighters being pushed back that far though, especially since the Arms character was already delayed to June. When would they reveal Fighter 7 if not with the Arms character anyway, another shadowdrop? If Nintendo already axed their E3 plans entirely in favor of spreading out announcements for the next few months, combined with potential delays and scheduling issues, they probably just aren't planning a direct at all right now. Hell, Jeff Grub already said a couple days ago he's heard the exact same thing, Nintendo has no plans for a direct and told partners just to drop stuff whenever they feel like it.

7 was already 99% going to be an E3 reveal, there's no way they aren't in a presentable state with a CG trailer, there's no reason not to show us it with the ARMS character.

 

[Vector Victor]

So is everyone expecting mid June for the Arms reveal, or early/late June?

June 30th and its just the ARMs reveal, nothing more, because the universe as been kind of a **** this year. Just a tad.

 

[Enigma735]

While I'd love to have FP7 confirmed right after the ARMS Fighter gets revealed, saving us months of speculating and rumor-mongering, I think it's more likely we'll just get the ARMS Fighter, with the next fighter not being revealed until maybe early/mid September. Assuming they'll even bother to do a Fall Direct, of course.

I beg to differ. I just can't see Nintendo having us speculate who Challenger Pack 7 is from March all the way until September. That is like more then half a year of waiting for this one character. Also, considering that E3 would have been going on in June, I am pretty sure Nintendo would not have just revealed this ARMS rep is coming and nothing else. I'm thinking this would have been a Banjo\Terry kind of reveal where they announce the character's release date, as well as teasing the character coming right after. I am of the belief we will get confirmation of FP7 is in June honestly.

 

[Polarthief]

I really don't see the rest of the fighters being pushed back that far though, especially since the Arms character was already delayed to June. When would they reveal Fighter 7 if not with the Arms character anyway, another shadowdrop? If Nintendo already axed their E3 plans entirely in favor of spreading out announcements for the next few months, combined with potential delays and scheduling issues, they probably just aren't planning a direct at all right now. Hell, Jeff Grub already said a couple days ago he's heard the exact same thing, Nintendo has no plans for a direct and told partners just to drop stuff whenever they feel like it.

7 was already 99% going to be an E3 reveal, there's no way they aren't in a presentable state with a CG trailer, there's no reason not to show us it with the ARMS character.

Not to mention pushing 7 to September would squish 2021's reveals together too much, and they'd be the last 3. If anything, next year will be spaced out much worse than this year's. 7's definitely being show in June.

I beg to differ. I just can't see Nintendo having us speculate who Challenger Pack 7 is from March all the way until September. That is like more then half a year of waiting for this one character.

It's been nearly half a year just waiting for the ARMS rep! End of January to beginning/second week of June is like 4.5 months as it is!
(okay so more like a third of a year but STILL)

 

[DarkShadow20]

June 30th and its just the ARMs reveal, nothing more, because the universe as been kind of a **** this year. Just a tad.

Lol, well if that did happen for some reason, at least we would see what Arms character they chose and whether or not it was a Spirit and/or an AT promotion and give us another round of Mii costumes which would help fuel further speculation.

It would definitely be amusing watching the Geno haters move the goal post again if it's a Spirit promotion.

 

[Fatmanonice]

General Directs are pretty much dead until further notice so how they go about Smash reveals is still up in the air. For all we know they could just do an ARMS presentation and then simply drop 7 and 8 at a later time. For example, Robin was pretty much a post E3 shadowdrop and they could do something like that again especially in the likely event that a Fall Direct is out of the question too. For example, they could release ARMS in June, announce 7 in July, and 8 in August just to spread things out.

 

[YsDisciple]

Good morning lads!

Thought to looking over the dates in which past E3 Nintendo Directs/Digital Events were held in order to more or less narrow down when exactly Nintendo might be doing the info dump on upcoming games, AND the Smash Bros. CP6 reveal. Since 2012 up until 2019, Nintendo's held their digital events/Directs mostly on a Tuesday (6 out of 8 times). Could be counted as 7 due to 2016 being the year they had kinda two digital events (Tuesday for Zelda Botw and Pokemon S&M), and Wednesday for all the other games. However, when coming up with an average date within June in which they would have theoretically have held their Direct in 2020, it would have been either on the 11th (which would fall on a Thursday), but adjusting that date with the aforementioned fact that most Directs were held on a Tuesday, and the SSBU North American Online Open Tournament going on from May 30th through June 21st, we could be seeing an announcement window ranging from June 9th (Tuesday), up to June 18th (Thursday). Depending on whether Nintendo decides to thoroughly spread out their announcements through the month of June, or decide on specific dates to schedule numerous announcements, it should still be within that range of dates.

 

[SpiritOfRuin]

I do wonder if they would try to generate speculation again by revealing the ARMS character followed by the franchise or even company of the next fighter instead of actually revealing them. I know it hasn't been popular with everyone, but I would definitely take this over nothing and honestly it would make the wait for the next character more bearable.

Like with the SNK leak we pretty much knew it would be Terry, but by discussing who else it could be and discussing Terry I came to be much more accepting of Terry's inclusion than I would have been without that time to prepare. In fact, it's to the point now that I kind of wonder what took Terry so long to get in Smash seeing as how he's basically the character that represents the seed of the idea that started Smash to begin with. Even though I can't play him at all I just can't imagine Smash without a character that holds that kind of importance.

Now for Geno I imagine they would have to torture us by saying something like the next character is a Mario or SE character instead of from SMRPG because the latter would be a little too obvious even through there are other possibilities from SMRPG there's no reason to pick someone besides Geno from the game.

At any rate, this would give us enough information to keep speculating and enough for me to stay interested. If it's just the ARMS character then I really hope it at least proves spirits don't disconfirm so that we can still have that hope. I don't think it will just be the ARMS character in June though, but I also don't think we're getting more than one additional reveal past ARMS.

 

[Enigma735]

It's been nearly half a year just waiting for the ARMS rep! End of January to beginning/second week of June is like 4.5 months as it is!
(okay so more like a third of a year but STILL)

Good point, but in January we weren't even aware of who was CP6 at the time and it took only two months to find out. Just the fact we were getting another Fighters Pass made me content with what was announced at the time. Now that we know who CP6 is, I just can't foresee Sakurai making us wait THAT LONG to find out the identity of this fighter when at the time of September, we would have knew of CP6 LONG before the next announcement.

 

[pinshadow]

General Directs are pretty much dead until further notice so how they go about Smash reveals is still up in the air. For all we know they could just do an ARMS presentation and then simply drop 7 and 8 at a later time. For example, Robin was pretty much a post E3 shadowdrop and they could do something like that again especially in the likely event that a Fall Direct is out of the question too. For example, they could release ARMS in June, announce 7 in July, and 8 in August just to spread things out.

I mean to be fair there was really no other time to reveal Robin, E3 already had 3 (technically 5) characters and there straight up just wasn't a real direct or anything until November of that year. It felt like an "Oh wait the game come out in like 2 months we need a way to show this trailer just chuck it online" kind of thing. Shulk got dumped in a Japan-exclusive direct that revealed the New 3DS but atleast that coincided with the reveal of his own game for the system.

 

[Polarthief]

Good point, but in January we weren't even aware of who was CP6 at the time and it took only two months to find out.

Now that we know who CP6 is

??? We still don't know who DLC 6 is. Knowing their series doesn't count at all.

I just can't foresee Sakurai making us wait THAT LONG to find out the identity of this fighter

I don't either; I was actually agreeing with you FTR. DLC 7 will be shown off the same day/week as DLC 6. There's no way they're gonna push it to September and then have 4 more reveals (in the span of 15 months, especially when production on 9-11 likely got pushed back a month or so. They should frontload the reveals to give them more breathing room on the latter half, and not give Smash nearly as much focus as they have in 2018/19.

 

[Enigma735]

??? We still don't know who DLC 6 is. Knowing their series doesn't count at all.



I don't either; I was actually agreeing with you FTR. DLC 7 will be shown off the same day/week as DLC 6. There's no way they're gonna push it to September and then have 4 more reveals (in the span of 15 months, especially when production on 9-11 likely got pushed back a month or so. They should frontload the reveals to give them more breathing room on the latter half, and not give Smash nearly as much focus as they have in 2018/19.

Good point. We just have to wait and see. I still believe we will get CP7 revealed in June but I guess their could be a possibility of it being held until September, especially since we don't know the exact identity of who the ARMS rep will be.

 

[Polarthief]

Good point. We just have to wait and see. I still believe we will get CP7 revealed in June but I guess their could be a possibility of it being held until September, especially since we don't know the exact identity of who the ARMS rep will be.

The problem with that is look at the timetable moving forward:
March/June: #6
Sep: #7
Dec?: #8 <== This could get pushed to Q1 though unless they're doing VGA (please lord no, don't do a VGA reveal) or a shadowdrop.
Then moving into the new year
Q1 2021: #9 <== this seems too soon after December's reveal, and obviously wouldn't happen if #8 got pushed to Q1.
"E3" 2021: #10 <== Depending on when the Q1 reveal is, this could be too soon after.
Fall 2021?: #11 <== This one is fine, but I can't help but feel like they may want to finish reveals sooner.

This is also assuming they do Sep/Dec for #7/8. If #8 got pushed to next year, you'd be squishing it a bit in the back-end, when you'd want to be frontloading the FP so people buy it sooner. It's been 4 months since FP2 has been live and there's still no point in buying it. The ARMS rep won't make *that* much of a reason to buy it either. You'd think they'd want some early sales going or something so they would push out more characters sooner, then slow the heck down for the rest of the FP, like they did with FP1. Also trying to fit any supposed bonuses in here (like Fatman is still convinced that we're getting)? Fuhgettaboutit, there's no space anywhere. If they are for sure doing any bonuses, #7 in June is guaranteed, hell possibly even #8 or a bonus somewhere. Even if they aren't, to give them some breathing room and more sales, they have to show off #7 in June as well. It's a win-win scenario for them to reveal in June since it gives them more time to space out the latter half reveals while also getting more sales of FP2 sooner.

 

[TriggerX]

Lemme explain with an example.

“There are two states. Being eaten by a wildebeest and not being eaten by a wildebeest. Therefore there is a 50% chance that you are being eaten by a wildebeest.”

That’s the level of statistical fallacy we’re working with here.

Sure if you want to look at it as if he is in or not, then yea it’s 50/50.
That perspective isn’t wrong,but it’s a bit simplified in my opinion.

At least the original poster takes the fates of other mii costumes into account. Hence why they believe Geno’s chance is probably closer to 40%.


Regardless it’s almost pointless to look at this with statistics because the numbers are just manipulated by what metrics you utilize at the end of the day. It’s like that YouTube series about people predicting the next fighters pass with math. It’s a cool idea, but if someone used different metrics the results would obviously deviate.

That’s just how statistics and probability work.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Another reason why things are kind of confusing is because of the timing of things. As this thread is painfully aware, Season 2 was approved around last E3 and work started last July/August. A lot of Geno stuff happened last July too: the starling, the music takedowns, and the SMRPG costume leaks, so it's easy to imagine that if Geno's coming he's probably not too far off. The Crash stuff started to come around this time period too. I bring this up because we technically have several examples where time-frames have lined up in this way:

-The Seven Squares leaked in August 2018, Hero was released literally the last day of July 2019.

-RARE confirmed that Banjo was basically started at E3 2018 and then announced at E3 2019.

-Ryu first entered insider talks in December 2018, potentially foreshadowing Byleth's January 2020 release as both are technically Tecmo characters.

This is also part of the reason why I still entertain Lloyd because the Tales 25th Anniversary thing leaked last September, Namco confirmed it in January 2020 but still hasn't announced any of their official plans yet.

Of course, this can also apply to games too. The Mario Remaster rumors surfaced last August/September too along with one of the dead franchise revivals, adding speculation that these two were always intended to be summer 2020 announcements. In short, we have some degree of precedent for things leaking a year in advance and then being announced or even released roughly a year later.

 

[Sigran101]

I'm thinking early/mid June. If this reveal is anything like Byleth's reveal back in January, and they're intending to reveal and release them within the same month, then it stands to reason the reveal would be early with a couple weeks of waiting prior to it's actual release.


While I'd love to have FP7 confirmed right after the ARMS Fighter gets revealed, saving us months of speculating and rumor-mongering, I think it's more likely we'll just get the ARMS Fighter, with the next fighter not being revealed until maybe early/mid September. Assuming they'll even bother to do a Fall Direct, of course.

Sakurai straight up said production has gone as planned during the virus and there is no delay. At the rate you're expecting it will take them three years to finish the pass. I'm gonna have to disagree.

 

[MattX20]

General Directs are dead, that's true, but specialized Directs however are a different story, and it's not impossible to see a special Smash Direct, if not presentation that gives us the information we're looking for

 

[Fatmanonice]

Also, my previous post made me realize I overlooked something else... Paragon got the Waluigi stuff last May. Now that we know 6 was originally planned for April 2020, this definitely puts a new perspective on things. Of course, Waluigi and ARMS are both first party but this raises a number of questions: was Waluigi a red herring/leakbait for ARMS or is he potentially coming after all? Again, we're coincidentally seeing a year time gap in something that could wind up being true.

 

[Powerman293]

Also, my previous post made me realize I overlooked something else... Paragon got the Waluigi stuff last May. Now that we know 6 was originally planned for April 2020, this definitely puts a new perspective on things. Of course, Waluigi and ARMS are both first party but this raises a number of questions: was Waluigi a red herring/leakbait for ARMS or is he potentially coming after all? Again, we're coincidentally seeing a year time gap in something that could wind up being true.

Trying to consolidate conflicting leak information as if they're all true is how you end up with PapaGeno's Incineroar Grinch Leak theory. Where for a brief moment he thought that Incineroar was shifted to DLC (ironically much like Pirahna Plant who we actually got).

 

[Fatmanonice]

Trying to consolidate conflicting leak information as if they're all true is how you end up with PapaGeno's Incineroar Grinch Leak theory. Where for a brief moment he thought that Incineroar was shifted to DLC (ironically much like Pirahna Plant who we actually got).

That's why I'm presenting multiple explanations because Waluigi is the only thing tied to "Paraleak" that hasn't panned out or had an alternate explanation for why they got the information that they did. Yes, it could have ultimately been flat out wrong but, given who the information came from, I feel there's some truth to it.

 

[MattX20]

Also, my previous post made me realize I overlooked something else... Paragon got the Waluigi stuff last May. Now that we know 6 was originally planned for April 2020, this definitely puts a new perspective on things. Of course, Waluigi and ARMS are both first party but this raises a number of questions: was Waluigi a red herring/leakbait for ARMS or is he potentially coming after all? Again, we're coincidentally seeing a year time gap in something that could wind up being true.

That's why I'm presenting multiple explanations because Waluigi is the only thing tied to "Paraleak" that hasn't panned out or had an alternate explanation for why they got the information that they did. Yes, it could have ultimately been flat out wrong but, given who the information came from, I feel there's some truth to it.

Well, the fact it doesn't have an alternate explanation yet isn't promising. Geno though still has insider confidence, even after all this time which is interesting

 

[Crankshadow]

Here’s to hoping that June gives us some answers. I would love nothing more than starboi being early so we don’t have to clench every mii wave.

 

[Polarthief]

Geno though still has insider confidence, even after all this time which is interesting

Do you have any sources for this? I keep hearing stuff regarding Geno and insiders, but outside of Seven Squares and a plethora of fake leaks, I haven't heard much. The most I heard was Verge saying not to expect Geno/don't take him too seriously or something. Basically, this is the first I've heard about "insider confidence".

... outside of Fatman, of course. Excluding Fatman, I personally haven't seen/heard anything, especially not lately regarding insiders.

 

[MattX20]

Do you have any sources for this? I keep hearing stuff regarding Geno and insiders, but outside of Seven Squares and a plethora of fake leaks, I haven't heard much. The most I heard was Verge saying not to expect Geno/don't take him too seriously or something. Basically, this is the first I've heard about "insider confidence".

... outside of Fatman, of course. Excluding Fatman, I personally haven't seen/heard anything, especially not lately regarding insiders.

That's what Fatman keeps saying. I'd like to see the information too

 

[SSGuy]

I'm absolutely prepared for either triumph or heartbreak. I just want to know what the truth behind Geno's chances are. Hopefully June reveals all!

 

[Fatmanonice]

Another reason I haven't fully let go of Paraleak is because of the C&D that Paragon got over it and, yes, I've talked to them personally about this topic. When I look at the timeline, Hero had technically leaked in a major way twice (Seven Squares and the December 2018 datamine), insiders and retailers were starting to tease Banjo at that point, whichs means the C&D pertained to either the Undertale stuff or Waluigi. When the Seven Squares happened, Square Enix was the one that went on the legal rampage, not Nintendo. Would Nintendo have legal precedent for the Undertale stuff despite the fact that it's not one of their IPs? Again, we saw this earlier this year when the Paper Mario and Metroid leak stories got big and Zippo and Sabi found themselves in hot water very quickly. Same thing with the Pokemon video leaks last fall that caused the Pokemon Company to go out and legally eviscerate a number of people over it. It begs the question of why they went after Paragon so hard. It could have just been because of how close it was to E3 and they wanted to make an example of him but that feels like a waste of legal resources.