The more I look at this and what's actually happening the more stuff starts to fall into place. It doesn't REALLY make sense for them not to be able to host a direct, I mean they held a Mini just last month and it was all digital. So is something else going on here? Let's actually look at the rumors that have been floating around.
- Rounding out the Wii U ports with Pikmin 3 and 3D World.
- Whatever 3DS projects that have been moved over to Switch after Bowser's Inside Story bombed/Nintendo realized they'd make way more money on Switch, also extremely likely remakes given that was most of the first party output for the final 2 years.
- The giant 3D Mario Collection Rumor
- Other stuff floating around like Prime Trilogy, Skyward Sword HD, I guess Rare Replay/MMC but those aren't really Nintendo related even if they are big
Seriously, aside from Paper Mario and the 2D Metroid, it's really just ports and remakes floating around, and I feel like I've heard multiple people at this point suggest that's most of what Nintendo has to offer this year along with smaller titles and third party stuff. I mean just look at the first half of the year, it's one big game with Animal Crossing and then just remakes (SMTxFE, Xenoblade, Mystery Dungeon, theres also that Famicom Detective Club remake coming out in Japan) and smaller titles (Good Job, Clubhouse Games). I know people will act like "Oh well the first half of the year is always slow!" And that's generally true, but they've announced N O T H I N G past June, it's pretty clear that Covid or not this was going to be a somewhat slower year. Metroid Prime and Bayonetta sure as hell aren't coming out this year. They likely planned on having one big Holiday game to fully show off at E3 like every other year, in all likelihood BOTW2, and have that carry the second half of the year along with one or two nicher titles like Paper Mario or 2D Metroid, and fill out the gaps with remakes, DLC with Pokemon and Smash, and third party stuff, like they did in 2018. All in all, actually a pretty nice year for the Switch, better than 2018 atleast.
Now put yourself in Nintendo's shoes. You planned already on having a (debatably) weaker year carried by two massive releases in Animal Crossing and the Holiday title and a bunch of more niche titles and remakes to keep the fans happy. But now everything is screwed up, and, hypothetically, whatever big game you expected to release this holiday season probably won't be able to make the deadline (Zelda getting delayed, imagine that) and all the sudden, you don't have a Holiday Title ready. Not to mention you have to move around a bunch of other release dates and reschedule the entire next year or two, third party games getting delayed as well, a complete mess.
Why hold a big E3 direct at that point when they aren't obligated to at all? I know this sucks for people to hear, but we are more likely than not at this point to ride out the rest of the year same as the first half. Nintendo is pretty well known at this point for keeping finished games on standby until they feel it's the right time to release, so it's realistic for them to just go "screw it" and try and patch out the rest of the year with whatever remakes they are sitting on like 3D World or the Prime Trilogy. We'll probably still get one or two bigger games they are able to finish spread out as well, but this is going to be a bumpy ride release wise. At the very least they weren't planning on releasing a console this year, I can't even IMAGINE what it's like to be working at Microsoft and Sony right now. It feels like a trainwreck waiting to happen at this point with the Series X and especially PS5.