I'm thinking Waluigi will either be #7 or 8 for this reason. One thing I think folks forget is who Nintendo thinks is popular (this is something I've argued before in this thread). K Rool, Simon and Ridley were all from the ballot, so fans could directly tell Nintendo who they wanted. Banjo likely got in due to Phil Spencer. He was often asked about Banjo and had responded to comments on it, which of course were published on various game sites. If one of the major console manufacturers is talking about it, I'm sure Nintendo is listening. This is likely why Banjo caught Nintendo's attention.
Waluigi is likely in the same boat. The response to him not being in was published in the
Washington Post. Reggie was even asked about Waluigi not being in Smash.
I will say I think a problem Geno fans do have is they rely on being popular on message boards hoping Nintendo will take note. Nintendo doesn't have any way to gauge who is really popular through forums and what not. They probably don't even know about the fan polls done. I think the reason Waluigi could very well get in is because Nintendo sees that popularity but they may not see it for other characters, Geno included. I think folks haven't had the level of outreach needed to get a niche (albeit cool) character in Smash.
Just a reminder. Nintendo has definitely heard for
both Geno and Waluigi. I could definitely see a double reveal of Geno+Wah in a Mario-focused E3.
Paraspikey
also had a great post on this topic, back on page 2548. TL;DR: The guy from Nintendo who said that isn't some random, he's a veteran product marketing manager, which boils down to "Nintendo is aware of Geno and Wah".
You have to remember that there are tons of characters that are popular out there. Nintendo gets bombarded with requests for characters so how do you parse through them all and determine who people want.
You do some research, you look at who people are asking for. You look at who is feasibly possible (is Sora or MC possible?) and how much they'll cost. There's some risk and reward to be had here because the bigger a character, the more likely they'll sell, but the third party knows this and would likely charge more. Byleth cost them nothing (since it's first party), but I wouldn't at all be surprised if they did the worst in sales of individual packs. Banjo was surprisingly easy actually, so that was no risk and all reward. I wouldn't be surprised if Hero and Joker cost them an arm and a leg though. Terry was quite eh overall; not bad, just not like the 3 big ones (DLC 1-3), but SNK was very receptive (50+ SONGS?!), so I wouldn't be surprised if that was little risk little reward like Byleth too.
Also, thinking about it, it could also be that they hooked us all with the first 3 and tons of people bought the overall passes expecting more huge picks just to get slapped with Terry (eh) and Byleth (boooo). That would be pretty malicious if intentional, heh.
Yes, Ridley is a character that has been acknowledged as being popular, but he didn't get into Smash until the Ballot happened.
So if Nintendo knows who is popular, why did Ridley have to do well in the ballot to get in?
Sakurai is a perfectionist and didn't think Ridley would work because of his proportions and didn't want to completely gut the character (stripping him of the ability to fly for example). This has been said by the man himself, multiple times. Then he realized he could just
try to make it work and I'd say it worked out pretty well.
(that was a joke btw; I don't know why the change of heart, but hey, it worked out damn well. Ridley's reaction was nuts)
Again, being just popular probably isn't enough. Your right, Sakurai did acknowledge Geno's popularity, but he ended up making him a Mii Fighter costume and left it at that.
Honestly, we really don't know why Geno was unsuccessful at getting in both Brawl and Sm4sh. No one seems to know except Sakurai, Nintendo, and whatever went down in trying to get the rights to use him. They clearly got *something* considering he's currently a spirit and a player icon token thingy.
Nintendo did see they were popular but that means they add them as assist or trophies, not necessarily playable fighters. In Waluigi's case, he's been asked for by major outlets and had an article in a mainstream publication. So if Nintendo wants to add a big hit character, Waluigi would make sense. I mean, interviewers aren't asking for Geno or Isaac. They are asking about Waluigi. That's the character that has the clout.
Waluigi's the one that got the massive stink in being an AT. Waluigi's also a first party Mario character that originally started as a meme, people started to actually unironically love the poor guy. Of course he's gonna get the spotlight when he's deconfirmed in what's looking like the final Smash game. Geno's not as popular mostly because he's not nearly as known, but the fact that he's been in one game (and cameo'd in a second way later), and still requested enough to get Nintendo's attention for a costume in Sm4sh actually says quite a lot.
Geno does well in ballots actually. Look up any major poll in the last couple of years and you'll find Geno in the top 10 back to now consistently in the top 3.
This too. I won't be surprised if Geno did well in the official ballot.