A thought that occurred to me:
I mentioned over on discord today that Nintendo airs their important directs at a time of day when a lot of people are going to see them. Typically, general or "major" directs air at 5 or so Eastern time, which means that almost every time zone in the United States is getting off of work or school, but lesser directs get whatever the hell time of day they want, and very specifically, Sakurai presentations get an awful early morning time slot that most people have to work or go to school through and catch later - Sakurai's nerdgasm over Terry was obviously deemed to be not worth anyone's time to catch "live", and as out of touch as Nintendo is, they knew there'd be no harm in catching Byleth at whatever time of day was convenient for you. We saw that in today's Mini Direct, too - nothing of any real consequence was announced, Xenoblade Definitive Edition - a game we already knew was coming - carried the entire show, and the Smash announcement was so underwhelming that they spent 30 seconds delivering it.
Nintendo's walking a really odd road right now. In one of the most unhype Smash deliveries of all time, they revealed that the next character is from a three year old game that everyone forgot about almost as soon as they put it in their Switch. Truly, Sakurai is making good on his word that recognizability is not the deciding factor in a Smash selection. But enough ****ting on ARMS.
Consider the following situation: Nintendo just revealed one of the most upsetting Smash characters since Piranha Plant. How out of touch do they have to be to follow it up with a shill for a sequel to a game that almost no one remembers, and making us wait until June to know exactly who it is? They planned this with no COVID-19 - that means that Nintendo's plan for this year was to show ARMS ****ing 2 at E3 and a character, brand new to it, as a fighter in Smash before the game is even out. This would be Roy, except they expect us to pay extra for him... Again. I just don't think it's a thing that would happen. There's being out of touch and having bad optics, and then there's this.
The most likely situation we're looking at is either that they planned to kick down the doors of speculation at E3 and show us Spring Man and prove that assist trophies, spirits, and even mii costumes mean nothing. A situation like that would be hype enough in terms of implication that they wouldn't need a second character to make it interesting, but I think that they did intend at second character at E3 - God only knows what we'll be looking at now.