Not sure why its so hard for people to either read old comments, or research the information themselves. List of things I find to be convincing for Geno.
-Icon/Token Image for Arena Battle. Geno permanently part of the Ultimate Menu, Nothing about being a spirit.
-The DLC were decided back during the initial development for Ultimate, December 15th, also the release date for Cloud, and the Geno and Chocobo Costume.
-The last 3 DLC packs for characters are in the same format we're getting now. Some have said the stage and music could be unrelated to the character. Lucas/Roy/Ryu with Susaku Castle, Cloud and Midgar, Corrin/Bayonetta with Umbra Clock Tower. If DLC was decided for Ultimate at the time of Cloud's Inclusion, which was also 2 months before Bayonetta, than they would have decided the logistics at that time as well. This is why despite Lucas, Roy and Corrin coming out at the same time, werent bundled. Ryu + Susaku, Cloud + Midgar, and Bayonetta + Umbra Clock Tower were all sold at 5.99.
-Square Enix has a MASSIVE queue of games coming to the switch, most are remakes but some new, and the Switch also had the exclusive Octopath Travelers, which Nintendo had massively promoted above their own games. If the Deal with Square had really been made in December of 2015, the 2.5 year development cycle for the remakes and the 2 year on octopath is right on track with their standard development times. Knowing this, Square has done things in the past to force DLC, Multi Version, and Post development on their games and companies wanting to use their content. Its quite possible that Square requested DLC for Geno as a way to push their figures.
-Yoko Shimomura is the Composer for Both Super Mario RPG and Street Fighter 2, and since the launch of the new smash site, weve known shes been composing for Ultimate as the Vega Stage was uploaded and proudly sports her name for the new mix. Not only that, but has done all of the Mario and Luigi Series, all of the Kingdom Hearts, and tracks for Brawl and Smash 4. Her inclusion and on staff position with Nintendo makes funding the musical composition in house and more cost officiant for Square/Nintendo and to a lesser extent disney. While Yoko is the sole Composer for Kingdom Hearts, the entirety of the series is owned by Disney and is actually developed by Square and 4 other companies.
-Ultimate has the least "new" stages of any in the series so far. This is because the effort to bring back so many was a massive development project, as every stage had to be rebuilt and reprogrammed. In addition, every stage had to have a Battle Field and Final Destination iteration created with identical physical properties. This proved to be a huge undertaking and was admitted to be such, and is why so few were shown. So lets break down the 4 and why they are all more important than anything else we would of gotten.
- New Donk City Hall. Actually shown on the site to be developed first as the stages are listed in order of creation minus bf, bbf and fd. This proves that they didnt start developing new stages until very late into ultimate's development cycle as Mario Odyssey wasnt truly complete until last year, and released just over a year ago (Oct 27th, 2017). Interestingly, A Mario Stage has always been the first developed for each smash game. Peach's Castle (64)/Princess Peach's Castle (Melee)/Delfino Plaza (Brawl) Mario 3d Land(3ds)/Mushroom Kingdom U(Wii U). So logically this was THE most important thing to add first.
- The Great Plateau. Very important to the Zelda Franchise, and Launch title to the Switch. Logical second pick, but despite its game coming out way before odyssey was still developed second.
- Moray Towers. Splatoon 2 was a huge part of the Switch's martketing as well as Nintendo's committed jump into esports. Also just behind the first 2 and mario kart for sales.
- Dracula's Castle. Here is where Nintendo starts to develop things for the other games. Considering the huge amount of sink Konami dumped on to Nintendo, they put priority on this one. with 34 music tracks developed, this one series has more music than all other franchises in smash except for mario. Even zelda gets beat out by 1 from its massive list in smash 4 though likely to change with botw which would still make it have the 3rd most represented musically.
-Dracula's Castle alone was likely a massive time sink for nintendo, not to mention all the new mixes for other characters, which you can see on the smash site already. With that in addition to Yoko having to make the new songs for Street Fighter reps like Guile and Ken, it was likely the reason no other stages were developed.
-The Piranha Plant Amiibo comes out February 15th and to get him free you are required to register by January 31st. This time frame also aligns with Nintendo's big Q1 Direct for the year, and all the remaining Square games to come out have yet to receive a date of release. Its implied Piranha Plant will actually come out after Jan 31st with the wording used on the site of becoming playable "when its available". I wouldn't be surprised if DLC 1 came with Piranha Plant on the same day.
With all this information we know, plus the fact Yoko wont be busy come release of Ultimate, A lot is pointing to Geno being DLC. In addition, Vergaben has also stated the first dlc is to be the square enix rep.
The Stars are aligning and serve a higher authority, and for the 12 years I've been competing in smash, I've wanted Geno. I believe his time is now.