I'm pretty locked in on 6 being an upgrade (Waluigi or Geno) or Dante. I'm just looking at this as "Ok, who would be the first DLC characters chosen/negotiated for if they decided to do more DLC?" They tend to start the DLC with the easiest stuff, the veterans in Smash 4, Piranha Plant who was delayed from base game, and Third Parties who already have characters in Smash Brothers. (Ryu first third party DLC in 4, Joker and Hero first third party DLC in Ultimate). I mean, they had to have a couple characters in mind when they greenlit more DLC. They clearly took awhile to negotiate stuff, considering they seemed to leave it purposefully vague when they announced more DLC in September and didn't set in stone a 2nd Pass and the 6 characters until around when they recorded in November, but some characters had to have been chosen by that September direct.
That just leads us back to the fact that the Geno costume is still missing. I really don't understand how people are looking at this and saying "Oh that doesn't matter, he's not getting in." In fact, let me try and adress the points people keep making about it.
- They just chose not to bring the costumes back!
Why? Sakurai made it clear he specifically chose to add the costume to appease the Geno fanbase and they've had no problem bringing back alot of the other costumes, the work is already done.
- Square just chose not to let the costumes come back!
Geno is a Spirit in the base game though, and why would they change their mind after allowing it in Smash 4? It's literally free money for them.
- It's being saved for a different Square character!
If it was moved to another Square character, then that means whatever Square character the costume was moved to would have needed to be chosen by Nintendo and requested to Sakurai by atleast sometime in July, meaning they were among the first bonus DLC characters chosen, which sounds way better for an upgrade like Geno than someone like 2B/Sora. And even if they did get chosen, and as one of the first post-pass DLC characters, WHY would they move the costume to release later anyway? It serves literally no purpose, just give those characters their own costumes.
- Geno is getting an UPGRADED Mii Costume!
Again, this would have to have been decided by July, before the Sans costume was even revealed, so they would have had to have chosen to do this before any fan reaction to the Deluxe costumes. I don't think Sakurai is going to say "Oh, ok, let's take the Geno costume, spice it up, go to Square and fight for a music track, and then release it later".
- They didn't bring back the Chocobo Hat either!
In case it isn't obvious, Square is way stingier about Final Fantasy in Smash that something like Geno, and again, he's a spirit in the game already, there is zero reason to not have the costume comeback. If the Chocobo costume did get moved, then that heavily supports the idea of another Square character being decided on early for bonus DLC, which again, fairs better for Geno than someone like 2B/Sora.
- The costumes could show up with anyone!
Sqaure clearly has a habit of keeping their stuff seperate from everyone else in Smash. Cloud released all on his own in Smash 4 along with his Mii costume wave, which was just Chocobo and Geno, when every other mii costume wave had anywhere from 6-9. And then we got Hero in Smash Ultimate, again with nothing but his own costumes, and mysteriously the only DLC pack to not have two returning Mii Costumes even though Geno and Chocobo are right there? Again, really supports the idea of a Square Character being chosen for Pass 2 by that point, and I don't think I need to tell you who that looks good for. It's almost like they got moved to somewhere else but Square wouldn't let anything else go in it's place, hmmm.
- Sqaure didn't bring the costumes back because they wanted the Hero Presentation to only focus on Dragon Quest!
Then where are the costumes? If Sqaure actually moved the Geno and Chocobo hats specifically just so they wouldn't take 15 second away from Dragon Quest (which makes no sense but whatever), then where did they get moved to? We finished the first pass, no costumes in sight, so that means either they were moved to someone post-pass, again supporting the idea that whoever the Square character is was chosen early as bonus DLC by July, or that they have just been removed entirely, which makes zero sense given it's literally free money for Square.
Is that everything?