Happy birthday PsychoIncarnate ! (I still don't know how to mention someone on Smashboards lol)
In any case , I'm very confident in a Nintendo direct. They were able to give us the Nindie direct and Byleth presentation after all. For all we know , their video for the Nintendo Direct is ready since February , but they were waiting for a specific time to show it off.
They're not live presentations , they could have easily just chose to wait until AC was released and sold well to advertize new games. (Yeah , the people who wanted to buy AC wouldn't probably change their minds , but more casual players or newcomers to the franchise could have easily been interested in the game , since it was one of the only Nintendo releases as of now.)
I would honestly be willing to wait until June to get a new fighter for Smash , since the last one we got was 2 months ago. It might seem a lot for some , but I'm the guy that's still waiting for Pikmin 4 and anything Klonoa related to be announced , so I can deal with waiting for 4/5 months for Smash news.
The main reason the wait feel so long is because they advertized the Fighter Pass 2 way too soon , they showed off nothing , and when the Byleth presentation came , we didn't get a teaser. Honestly , they should have revealed FP2 during Byleth's presentation.