I've just been thinking. I'm starting to think that we might see a company already in the fighters pass get another character. There are just so many deconfirmed characters that I think I've narrowed it down to a bunch.
- Sora
- Master Chief
- Kratos
- Blizzard rep (maybe Diablo or World of Warcraft)
- Steve (minecraft)
- Arle Nedja
- Bethesda rep (Dovakhiin or Fallout character)
- Team Fortress 2 rep
- MOBA rep like League of Legends
- Monokuma
- Travis Touchdown
- Lara Croft
- Konami rep (Contra?)
- A first party character like Three Houses rep or Waluigi
- And maybe 1 or 2 others I can't think of at the moment
These are the likeliest reps I feel, although admittedly some of these are a big stretch. But if Vergeben and Sabi are both correct, that would at least narrow down the likeliest candidates. Out of all of these, I think Master Chief, Steve, Arle, and Travis Touchdown are the likeliest.
Fatmanonice
Didn't you say that Sora was likely to be a VGA 2020 announcement at the earliest? Or did anything about that change? I do feel Sora would be one heck of a way to end the fighters pass, but based on what you said about that and the theory that post-pass characters will be more fan servicy, I'm not super high on Sora being FP5. Btw, I just want to say, Fatman, that I enjoy your speculation and I appreciate that when you were in Sabi's circle, you put up with the pressure of you being put on the spot a lot. Yet you continued to work with us and deliver some useful info. Thank you.
Now, let's talk about these characters. Grab your popcorn and a drink. Because I'm going deep with these.
First, Sora (out of all the characters on my list) is one of, if not, the most popular character who has been highly requested for a long time. Kingdom Hearts is a big, successful, and iconic series. He has done exceedingly well in polls. I would say on this list, he is definitely within top 5 or 3. And being associated with Disney isn't an issue. Disney has openly said they wouldn't mind having Sora in Smash. Worst case scenario, we will just get 2 songs and not many spirits. And I could see Sora definitely working without Disney characters. Yes it would pull away half the charm of the series, but I think there are enough charming things outside of the Disney content to make the representation feel like Kingdom Hearts (Simple and Clean anyone?)
Master Chief. I've discussed him a couple times, but I think he is actually possible. If Sakurai really wanted to end the pass with a bang and really solidify Smash Ultimate as the biggest crossover of all time, he would go to someone like Chief as it would be a surprise and huge deal. There is the problem of him never being on a Nintendo console, but I have a feeling that Sakurai might end up breaking that rule one day. Plus, from a business standpoint, it seems possible as Master Chief would make a lot of money from his iconicness alone and Microsoft would most likely not refuse as all it will do is give them more attention from the marketing. And of course, Nintendo and Microsoft are buddy-buddy and they are practically in bed making out at this point.
Kratos. Oh boy. I know what most of you will say with Sony being thick-headed and you do have a point. Honestly I don't have a lot of evidence to back this up besides that it would be a complete surprise and a Sony rep would be the biggest shocker left. Now, Sony has gotten more laxed with competition. They are slowly allowing more cross play. Heck, them and Microsoft are actually working together (
https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/20/18632374/microsoft-sony-cloud-gaming-partnership-amazon-google). Finally, Sony was at that Smash tournament. I have a feeling that they might be starting to warm up to other companies. If we could see some kind of partnership between Nintendo and Sony in the near future, I think Kratos could happen. I know this is a stretch, but Sakurai has done the impossible before.
Blizzard rep. You might be shaking your head. But let's think about this. Blizzard has been supporting the Switch with Diablo 3 and Overwatch. So they seem to have a good relationship. Plus, Blizzard is owned by Activision, and if Sabi's source is correct and they didn't negotiate for Crash, they could have went to Blizzard/Activision and negotiated for a character from a game like Diablo or even World of Warcraft. As for Diablo, it is a very popular series. Also, and I'll be bringing this up a lot later, Nintendo might try and see if they can get PC gaming to be more popular in Japan. If PC games become more popular, so will Switch ports of those games. Same with World of Warcraft, which is very popular and iconic and might bring in new players for Smash.
Steve from Minecraft. Minecraft is the best selling game of all time. Steve would sell better than hot cakes. And he certainly would be iconic enough to be announced at the Game Awards (even if he is not the most iconic image of the game people will still be able to recognize him or at least his art style). Minecraft has been highly influential on the industry and is quite popular in Japan as well. I do agree that with how stiff Steve is, it might be hard to translate a moveset for him, but as a counter argument, look at Mr. Game & Watch. He has limited animation and is stiff, but he works well in Smash.
Arle Nedja. I think people are sleeping on her chances too much. She is quite popular in Japan and I think Puyo Puyo being the first (and so far only) foreign game on the SNES online is quite suspicious. She would have a unique moveset with it focusing on the puzzle aspect of her games, and apparently she has some spells as well. She fits the aesthetic of the game and overall she seems like the type of left field pick that Sakurai would choose.
Bethesda rep. Ever since Doom Slayer was deconfirmed, people have not been talking about this company a lot. Fallout could happen as Fallout Shelter is on the Switch and there have been rumors of Fallout being ported to the Switch. But the bigger candidate is the Dragonborn. The Elder Scrolls is iconic and has been around for a long time. Skyrim is one of the biggest games of this decade and got ports for a long time (Not as much as games like Resident Evil 4 which people seem to forget about) and is still talked about a lot these days. Plus, Bethesda was one of the first companies to support the Switch, even having Skyrim in the Switch reveal trailer. They have a very good relationship and it only makes sense that they would be the western company after Microsoft to get a rep.
Team Fortress 2. Again, Nintendo might want to bring people from the PC market over to the Switch, especially since there would be a reason for them to have a Switch due to the portability. When people think of PC gaming, they think of Valve. Team Fortress is one of Valve's and even one of PC's biggest and most iconic games. There is enough charm and moveset potential to distinguish a TF2 rep from other FPS reps. With Gordon Freeman seemingly deconfirmed, TF2 is the next best rep for Valve. Importantly, Gabe Newell has said that he would be fine with Gordon Freeman in Smash, and thus most likely he would say the same for a TF2 rep.
MOBA rep. In addition to what I've said about PC gaming, something like League of Legends would be interesting and a left field choice. Apparently there is a League of Legends game coming to the Switch next year (supposedly). Admittedly we don't know much about how Sakurai feels about this genre, but LoL is very popular and is the game that heavily influenced MOBAs. If we do get a MOBA rep, it would probably be from LoL.
Monokuma. Sakurai has talked about Danganronpa before and congratulated Kodaka and his team for the work on Danganronpa V3. It's safe to assume that Sakurai respects Danganronpa and if Phoenix is off the table, it's possible that Sakurai went to Monokuma as the first visual novel rep. The only thing is that Danganronpa has never appeared on a Nintendo console. There have been rumors of a trilogy port, but nothing solid. I honestly don't have much else to say, but Monokuma is the type of character that Sakurai would choose because his art style could work well in Smash and he is overall a wacky character. Also, they can always tone down his violence.
Travis Touchdown. I honestly think this guy is a frontrunner. Yeah, a higher up from the company said he wasn't in the fighters pass, but Grant Kirkhope straight up lied about Banjo. No More Heroes 3 is coming next year and I think he genuinely has a very good shot. Interesting art style that could fit Smash very well, unique moveset potential, and Nintendo history, oh and also a wacky left field pick.
Lara Croft. I wrote an entire paragraph then realized that Geno and Sora would get in first before her. Meaning she has little chance of being FP5, at least from my point of view. Still a possibility though.
Konami rep. If Resident Evil isn't getting in for a while at east, I don't see Silent Hill getting in first. Resident Evil is just simply the bigger and more iconic and influential series. I don't see too many Konami reps having a good chance.....except for Contra. I never thought about it, but Contra makes a lot of sense. It's one of the classic series from the NES and SNES era. Plus I think Sakurai has been looking to make a shooter rep. During Banjo's presentation, Sakurai did mention his standard special being from a FPS section from one of the Banjo games. I always found that interesting. And it could be a hint to a shooter rep like Contra because to me, it seems like that Sakurai was experimenting with a shooting mechanic that could be worked on and improved to fit a shooter character. Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I'm taking Contra seriously. It's a popular series that goes on to this day, and I honestly see it as a possibility for Smash.
And finally, a First party rep. I'm confident that FP5 will be a 3rd party character, but despite all the other fighter pass characters being 3rd party, there is nothing that says that FP5 can't be an exception. I do find it suspicious that FE Three Houses doesn't even have a spirit event. Not even Astral Chain. If Sakurai wanted to end the pass with a surprise, I honest to god think that Waluigi could be it. Not likely, but a good possibility.
For anyone who was willing to read through all that, any thoughts? Other character suggestions?
