Ovaltine
Smash Master
- Joined
- Dec 7, 2018
- Messages
- 3,905
My interpretation of Geno when I write him is very inspired by Pearl.Pearl is best girl. Don't @ me.
Do what you will with this information.
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My interpretation of Geno when I write him is very inspired by Pearl.Pearl is best girl. Don't @ me.
If you tried to predict Brawlhalla dlc characters you would drive yourself insane, you can have Rayman fight Shovel Knight, Steven universe characters, Hellboy, Adventure time characters, WWE superstars, and some random nobodies that fill up the rosterI just want to say.
Rayman is going to fight Steven Universe characters before he fights Mario & Sonic.
And that's just Bonkers.
So, I have a lot of issues with this "Power of Six" theory that you're presenting and I'm going to work through them. The power of six theory relies on several assumptions to work correctly, those being:Now for a continuation of the previous post:
2. Returning to the Power of Six Theory
Now that we've established a timeline and have decent evidence that Season 2 was decided very soon after the planning of Season 1/the Fighter's Pass was finalized, it opens up some very interesting venues to explore. As a quick recap, the Power of Six Theory suggests that the original plan was for each Fighter's Pass to have 6 Mii costumes or hats and there's a lot of evidence to support this. Plans for Season 2 probably derailed a good number of these plans and caused "omissions" throughout the Fighter's Pass. Currently, we see this in Fighter's Pass 2-4. Let's break this down...
Joker:
Given the time line we explained earlier, Joker would have been virtually done by the time Season 2 had been decided. Strong evidence for this is that Joker was not only in the game's code at launch by the February Direct had a functional Joker model and, thanks to the NoA source, we know that Directs generally take a month to make at the very least with editing, translating, and post production. This means a functional Joker likely existed in January, again, around the time Season 2 was probably decided. Based on this, it makes sense that Joker is the only character so far with a full 6. He was pretty much done when Season 2 was decided so why change anything? 4 Persona and 2 Sonic Mii costumes. Moving on...
Hero:
Following the Power of Six Theory, it's very easy to see that Hero was missing two Mii costumes. Simple conclusion: the Chocobo Mii Hat and Geno were originally planned for Hero. Because of when Season 2 was decided, it can be theorized that they really didn't have time to negotiate, plan, and create replacements so they simply removed them. What's particularly interesting about this is that if Nintendo was already given permission and access to these assets, it stands to reason that they obviously weren't just "thrown away." That's stupid... Especially since they're third party and, let's face it, it's kind of a pain in the ass to get these sorts of things. That means that Nintendo still has Geno and Chocobo assets "in the vault" for future use. What could that future use be? Golly! Mystery upon mysteries! I have NO idea what what this could POSSIBLY suggest.
Snark aside, if this does mean that Geno's promotion is more than likely a-comin', Chocobo is kind of lonely, isn't it? Hats never come alone, they are always paired with something from the same company. What's the only other Square name heard among insiders? Sephiroth. Sephiroth Mii costume incoming, possibly with One Winged Angel attached? Food for thought.
Banjo:
Banjo's interesting. His Mii costumes are a hodgepodge of things. 2 Capcom, 1 Pokemon, 1 Konami, and a Sans Undertale. Weird... We're now just missing 1 for all full six but my theory is that there was another plan initially. My theory is that all the Megaman Mii costumes were originally planned for this pass because... "**** you, that's why," - Sakurai, probably. What makes me think this? When you look at all the Fighter's Pass, Mii costume additions from Smash 4 are overwhelmingly in even numbers. Tails and Knuckles for Joker. What would have been Geno and Chocobo for Hero. Banjo wound up being Protoman and Zero. Terry wound up getting Akira and Jacky. Let's continue this train of thought...
Megaman EXE and Megaman X are still MIA. Adding either to form a team of 3 would break the well established pattern we've seen of even numbers. Who in Banjo's pass seems really out of place? Surprisingly, it's not Sans... It's the Team Rocket Grunt! Not only is it the only second party Mii costume in the entire Fighter's Pass, it's the only Mii Fighter in this pass. Let's now make the argument that the Grunt was replacement for Megaman X or Exe. Plug both Megamen in and watch what happens: two swordsmen and four gunners. Once again, this is unusually balanced and seemingly deliberate. Unfortunately, all this evidence suggests that no other Microsoft were negotiated or considered and that Nintendo literally just negotiated for Banjo and some characters as cameos. This kind of adds even more evidence that Steve and Master Chief more than likely aren't "in the vault" at the moment.
Terry:
Terry seemingly has the smallest change of the previous two, just one Mii costume missing. Three SNK and two SEGA. Very strong fighting game theme. This sets a very strong precedent for who the omitted costume is. Dollars to donuts that it was Heihachi. Not a hard conclusion and further strengthened by how Banjo had Goemon, the lone Konami rep for Pass 3. Heihachi being the lone Namco rep for Pass 4 is perfectly acceptable and fits the overall theme like a glove.
Now, thanks to Forsaken's theory yesterday concerning time, we have established that Nintendo's choice was to overwhelmingly omit characters rather than renegotiate or plan for something else. This means that Heihachi also got thrown in the vault to use later. *Clink* This also tells something else I only just realized this morning, this hard establishes that Heihachi was never planned for #5. They have the assets but obviously there wasn't enough time to convert them into a full blown character. They had someone else in mind. Let's now move to number 5...
The Mysterious Number 5:
So now we've come to the end of journey. We've come to the conclusions that 1. there's very strong evidence that all the Smash 4 DLC costumes were meant to return and 2. these Mii costumes were never planned as playable for the Fighter's Pass. With this in mind, what do we have left that's not "in the vault?" Gil, Lloyd, and both Monster Hunter costumes. Interesting... Two Namco costumes... All have swords... Three have heavy armor... Hmmm... Interesting... Seems to be a theme... Who uses a sword and wears heavy armor... Hmmm, I say, hmmm, son, HMMMM....
Now, based on past patterns aside from Banjo, every pass has at least two Mii costumes from the series of their fighter. What does this tell us? It tells us that Nintendo that the chances of Heihachi, Lloyd, and Gil all being Mii costumes in #5 is incredibly small. If past patterns persist of even numbers of returning Smash 4 costumes, they will settle on two for Namco. Gil is most definitely one of them, leaving Heihachi and Lloyd.
My theory is that they plan to go with Heihachi. Why? Heihachi was already omitted once from a previous pass, appeared in the base game, and according to Sakurai caused a lot of problems trying to implement in Smash 4. Meanwhile, Sakurai's "review" of Lloyd was pretty glowing and suggested there was little debate of which Tales character he wanted to add if he ever got the chance. Based on this, Lloyd's going "in the vault" and Heihachi is in Pass 5.
This is what Pass 5 now looks like: two mysterious costumes from the same series, 2 Namco, and 2 Monster Hunter. Even Steven and following patterns of the previous passes. Now, this is a lot to take in. If you take these new conclusions and plug them into my old conclusions, it makes the argument for Fighter 5 being a Namco character even stronger and especially fortifies the argument that the character is from Soul Caliber, particularly Nightmare. Why? Even if we swap out Lloyd for Heihachi, it still thematically makes sense because Heihachi is not only a Namco fighting game character too but even was a guest fighter in Soul Caliber 2! Jesus! It fits together so damn perfect that it's absurd!
Conclusion:
Based on this exhausting review, we come to some very important conclusions. Because of the time frames of everything, "cut" content was probably just put in the vault for future use because it's 1. third party and had to be negotiated for and 2. were original parts of the Fighter's Pass initial draft! Again, if the Fighter's Pass was originally final, I've highlighted how it was mapped out to bring back every missing third party costume in tow to balance every pass to a perfect 6 Mii costumes per pass. With things being jumbled, assets got put in the vault to be used later and those assets are: Geno, Chocobo, Lloyd, Megaman EXE, and Megaman X. Square, Namco, and Capcom. All supported by the Power of Six Theory and insider intel that more Square, Namco, and Capcom characters were heavily rumored and seemingly on the way! Eu-****ing-reka! Hallelujah! Holy ****... I'm actually sweating... As always, this is just my own speculation but damn was this fun to write out.
How does the fact they renegotiated for a Spirit (and probably the costume) have any bearing on him being playable? They'd still have to go back to Square Enix to set up a Geno as playable deal. So, what is this supposed revelation supposed to be exactly? People have already pointed out the issue with your assets of a veteran in Smash 4 compared to a Mii costume (might as well not even be the same thing if we're being honest), but also, even if they decide they want to use Geno's assets, they still have to go back to Square Enix. They can't just outright decide he's playable without clearing more red tape.I'm almost vibrating (probably from it being Manic Monday and drinking a whole lot of coffee) but things are falling into place so damn hard. What I wrote earlier gives backing to a theory that I've been using literally before Ultimate was announced... Useable assets. Inkling, Isabelle, Chrom, Dark Samus, and K. Rool all had usable assets from Smash 4. One piece of the puzzle was in front of me the whole time...
Of course they renegotiated for Geno! He was in the base game and if Season 1 of DLC was planned and finalized before launch, of course Nintendo already had permission to use the assets, especially if the original plan was to bring back all the Smash 4 DLC costumes! It makes so much sense! Of course he was always going to come back either way but we all assumed it was the Mii costume. No! That ship has sailed, mother****ers, and hasn't been to port in four months!
Now, similar situation, DLC was kind of sprung on Sakurai for Smash 4 too. Originally it was JUST going to be Mewtwo as a little bonus gift but around November 2014 they were like "**** it, let's do a whole line up." Now, ladies and gentlemen, who were the first three characters outta da gate? Mewtwo, Lucas, and Roy. Lucas was in Brawl and Mewtwo and Roy were originally planned for Brawl but ultimately cut despite having the most work done by far. Why these three? USABLE. ****ING. ASSETS. A lot of the basic work bull**** was already done for these characters. Same could easily be argued for Lloyd and Geno. USABLE. ****ING. ASSETS. There's a whole goddamn buffet table spread for ATs and Mii costumes being used as references and models for full playable characters. MMMMMM! That's some GOOOOOOD speculation, right there!
Our time is coming, my brothers and sisters! Our time is near!
That just means Geno is best girl obviously.My interpretation of Geno when I write him is very inspired by Pearl.
Do what you will with this information.
I can't believe we're going to become bigger than Ridley. I guess there goes Geno's chances. SmhJust two pages from 1900. I think it's safe to say we'll break the record for longest running character thread by year's end at this rate.
Thanks, now Smashboards is banned in China.My two most wanted characters: Phoenix Wright and Xi Jinping.
Wait for another deconfirm, we'll rocket up 10 pages easyJust two pages from 1900. I think it's safe to say we'll break the record for longest running character thread by year's end at this rate.
REAL SH#TGuys... I just realized that Nightmare and Geno fit the roles of representatives for Dharkon and Galeem (respectively). One who has a demonic eye embedded onto its blade (an eye similar to Dharkon's), and a star spirit that possesses a doll in order to serve a higher purpose (remember the Master Hands in the WoL intro cinematic, where they shed into hands made of pure energy?).
Nightmare = Challenger Pack #5 (including Very Hard difficulty for WoL along with Ver. 7.0)
Geno = Bonus character for pre-purchasing Fighters Pass 2 [or Fighter Pass 2 DLC fighter; either 1 (6), or 2 (7)].
Oh, okay! Uh I am a prominent leaker and, uh, *fumbles around for notecard* based on my, uhhh, inside sources I believe, that... a Cap...Com, a Capcom character will not, um, be fighter #5.Wait for another deconfirm, we'll rocket up 10 pages easy
Why would they be separate, though? If you're negotiating to use a third party IP, why would you need to make separate negotiations for the different ways in which you plan to use them? (ie. Negotiate to use the IP for a playable character, negotiate to use them for an outfit, negotiate to use them for a stage hazard, etc.) That sounds like a licencing nightmare and doesn't make any sense.How does the fact they renegotiated for a Spirit (and probably the costume) have any bearing on him being playable? They'd still have to go back to Square Enix to set up a Geno as playable deal. So, what is this supposed revelation supposed to be exactly? People have already pointed out the issue with your assets of a veteran in Smash 4 compared to a Mii costume (might as well not even be the same thing if we're being honest), but also, even if they decide they want to use Geno's assets, they still have to go back to Square Enix. They can't just outright decide he's playable without clearing more red tape.
【スピリッツイベント】
— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) December 4, 2019
12/6(金)から3日間、スピリッツボードで「ありがとう! スマブラSP発売1周年」を開催! 期間中はバトル後にもらえる経験値とSPが3倍になるほか、アイテム「50%ダメージ」を追加で入手できます。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/Golp44r4PK
Anniversary Event!
"[Spirit Event] For 3 days from 12/6 (Friday), “Thank you! During the period, the experience points and SP that can be obtained after the battle will be tripled, and you will also receive an additional item of “50% damage”"
【スピリッツイベント】
— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) December 4, 2019
12/6(金)から3日間、スピリッツボードで「ありがとう! スマブラSP発売1周年」を開催! 期間中はバトル後にもらえる経験値とSPが3倍になるほか、アイテム「50%ダメージ」を追加で入手できます。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/Golp44r4PK
Thats cute. All the FP characters are right next to each other.Anniversary Event!
"[Spirit Event] For 3 days from 12/6 (Friday), “Thank you! During the period, the experience points and SP that can be obtained after the battle will be tripled, and you will also receive an additional item of “50% damage”"
【スピリッツイベント】
— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) December 4, 2019
12/6(金)から3日間、スピリッツボードで「ありがとう! スマブラSP発売1周年」を開催! 期間中はバトル後にもらえる経験値とSPが3倍になるほか、アイテム「50%ダメージ」を追加で入手できます。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/Golp44r4PK
I'm more delighted by the fact that all the characters are returing veterans, newcomers and DLC characters. Really makes you appreciate how far we've come... and how much further we've yet to go!Thats cute. All the FP characters are right next to each other.
I like the focus on dlc and returners who has sat out a game or two.Anniversary Event!
"[Spirit Event] For 3 days from 12/6 (Friday), “Thank you! During the period, the experience points and SP that can be obtained after the battle will be tripled, and you will also receive an additional item of “50% damage”"
【スピリッツイベント】
— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) December 4, 2019
12/6(金)から3日間、スピリッツボードで「ありがとう! スマブラSP発売1周年」を開催! 期間中はバトル後にもらえる経験値とSPが3倍になるほか、アイテム「50%ダメージ」を追加で入手できます。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/Golp44r4PK
Did you see the Terry showcase where Sakurai literally told us that it doesn't matter if the character is popular, but is important that they're fun to play as? Because popularity is not a contributing factor. This argument was disconfirmed by the man himself, so I can't fathom how this works against Geno or any other character who is "irrelevant".So realistically speaking, what do you guys think Geno's chances are for post pass?
I'm thinking 30%, not too unlikely; but not likely either.
He has a ton of reasons to get in, but I feel like Sakurai may prioritize other more popular characters (outside of Smash); Sakurai may just think that SMRPG is decently represented by spirits. He may also think that Mario in general is well represented, and decides against putting Geno in because of that.
Also, I'm thinking not all of the Mii costumes from Smash 4 will return in Smash Ultimate. I do think Geno's (upgraded mii costume) is likely, but I doubt we'll get all the remaining Megaman costumes, etc.
Honestly? That image is incredible no matter who you wanted or still want the game has spoiled us rotten. It has given us so many fan requested characters (Ridley, Simon, K. Rool, Banjo-Kazooie and potentially Geno), Introduced a brand-new kind of newcomers with echoes and quality echoes at that, Fun and unique newcomers (Incineroar, Piranha Plant, Joker, Hero, etc.) and much much more.Anniversary Event!
"[Spirit Event] For 3 days from 12/6 (Friday), “Thank you! During the period, the experience points and SP that can be obtained after the battle will be tripled, and you will also receive an additional item of “50% damage”"
【スピリッツイベント】
— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) December 4, 2019
12/6(金)から3日間、スピリッツボードで「ありがとう! スマブラSP発売1周年」を開催! 期間中はバトル後にもらえる経験値とSPが3倍になるほか、アイテム「50%ダメージ」を追加で入手できます。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/Golp44r4PK
I wish I could go back to 2017 and post this image with no contextAnniversary Event!
"[Spirit Event] For 3 days from 12/6 (Friday), “Thank you! During the period, the experience points and SP that can be obtained after the battle will be tripled, and you will also receive an additional item of “50% damage”"
【スピリッツイベント】
— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) December 4, 2019
12/6(金)から3日間、スピリッツボードで「ありがとう! スマブラSP発売1周年」を開催! 期間中はバトル後にもらえる経験値とSPが3倍になるほか、アイテム「50%ダメージ」を追加で入手できます。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/Golp44r4PK
Not too much in the Geno world really.Idk what has happened today.
Also brawlhala? And the only pearl i can think of is the gremlin from splatoon 2...
Surely people aren’t talking about her making an appearance in some other game?
I never bought in popularity as a reason for Geno NOT getting in. I just stated that Sakurai MAY decide to go with more popular (in the general gaming community) over a less popular one (in the general gaming community). And I never called any character irrelevant either; obviously Sakurai will decide to go with what he wants, relevancy or not. That said, popularity and relevance are 100% things that Sakurai thinks about when adding a character (just not the end all be all).Did you see the Terry showcase where Sakurai literally told us that it doesn't matter if the character is popular, but is important that they're fun to play as? Because popularity is not a contributing factor. This argument was disconfirmed by the man himself, so I can't fathom how this works against Geno or any other character who is "irrelevant".
Also just going to voice my support for a Namco character as #5. Vergeben did say that it wasn't, but his Smash record for DLC has been less than stellar, so color me unimpressed when he says something. I think that either way, it'll be a fun character so I'm excited. Plus the timing for a double reveal seems absolutely perfect (even though I totally thought a few days ago that it'd only be one character).
But also Nintendo please let us know beforehand that there will be Smash news at the Game Awards. So many people skip out on them because they're so long. I really want to see some good reactions if Geno is also revealed.
I think we're getting a Fighters Pass 2. Unless there's only two or three more characters coming, I see no reason for them to diverge from the "five or more characters, can all be bought together in a pass or individually" format.Do you guys think there will be Fighter’s Pass 2 or the rest will be individual DLC? I personally think the rest will be individual.
Even if Sakurai did not like the Fighter's Pass, it 100% worked for Nintendo so they'll continue it. Selling the fighter's pass is much better then selling characters individually.Do you guys think there will be Fighter’s Pass 2 or the rest will be individual DLC? I personally think the rest will be individual.
You call 30% "being realistic" despite what Fatmanonice has been telling us the whole time about how insiders / leakers have heard nothing but good things about Geno's inclusion and how his chances are looking great for post pass DLC. i get your fear that they might do our boy dirty but come on man don't be so pessimisticI never bought in popularity as a reason for Geno NOT getting in. I just stated that Sakurai MAY decide to go with more popular (in the general gaming community) over a less popular one (in the general gaming community). And I never called any character irrelevant either; obviously Sakurai will decide to go with what he wants, relevancy or not. That said, popularity and relevance are 100% things that Sakurai thinks about when adding a character (just not the end all be all).
By stating that I think Geno has a 30% chance, I'm only being realistic.
I'm personally leaning towards Phoenix Wright being the 5th character, and someone else also being revealed to start the second pass (I don't think it is Geno, probably a bigger character to sell the pass like Sora/Dante/insert another big, relevant character).
Maybe a combination of both? I could see them doing 1 or 2 characters individually before starting another pass, if they're set on making one anyway.Do you guys think there will be Fighter’s Pass 2 or the rest will be individual DLC? I personally think the rest will be individual.
Honestly, like 85%. Everything looks good to me. The missing costume, the extra dlc, the copystrikes, the theories, the caccomallow leak, the mii list leak, etcSo realistically speaking, what do you guys think Geno's chances are for post pass?
I'm thinking 30%, not too unlikely; but not likely either.
He has a ton of reasons to get in, but I feel like Sakurai may prioritize other more popular characters (outside of Smash); Sakurai may just think that SMRPG is decently represented by spirits. He may also think that Mario in general is well represented, and decides against putting Geno in because of that.
Also, I'm thinking not all of the Mii costumes from Smash 4 will return in Smash Ultimate. I do think Geno's (upgraded mii costume) is likely, but I doubt we'll get all the remaining Megaman costumes, etc.
It depends on how much freedom Sakurai is given. If he has the reigns, theyre probably separate, if Nintendo’s still control, we’ll probably see another pass with a bonus or twoDo you guys think there will be Fighter’s Pass 2 or the rest will be individual DLC? I personally think the rest will be individual.
*reads "Thank you!"*Anniversary Event!
"[Spirit Event] For 3 days from 12/6 (Friday), “Thank you! During the period, the experience points and SP that can be obtained after the battle will be tripled, and you will also receive an additional item of “50% damage”"
【スピリッツイベント】
— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) December 4, 2019
12/6(金)から3日間、スピリッツボードで「ありがとう! スマブラSP発売1周年」を開催! 期間中はバトル後にもらえる経験値とSPが3倍になるほか、アイテム「50%ダメージ」を追加で入手できます。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/Golp44r4PK
My man! you're back! nice to see you again partner
A second Fighters Pass would be amazing thoDo you guys think there will be Fighter’s Pass 2 or the rest will be individual DLC? I personally think the rest will be individual.
Funny thing is that I think in terms of my "wanted" characters, Geno has one of the highest chances. The only characters that I rate higher then Geno is Phoenix Wright (40%), Tales of rep (60%), and Sora (but that depends on what day it is). Most of my wanted picks are in the 5-10% range of my personal thoughts of their chances.You call 30% "being realistic" despite what Fatmanonice has been telling us the whole time about how insiders / leakers have heard nothing but good things about Geno's inclusion and how his chances are looking great for post pass DLC. i get your fear that they might do our boy dirty but come on man don't be so pessimistic