I’ve been thinking a lot about who Fighter #5 could be and the Pass in general, and I’ve noticed two particular aspects of it all that I really don’t see mentioned much.
1. Banjo-Kazooie is the newest playable third-party franchise.
No, no, I know that they just came out in September, that’s not what I mean. With Bayonetta essentially going full second-party in recent years, the most recent playable third-party franchise in Smash is from a series that debuted just over twenty years ago. SMT and Metal Gear both predate it, even Persona itself does.
It’s not something that you really notice when you see a bunch of recent characters like Joker and Hero, but franchise-wise, that really does turn out to be the case.
2. If you turn the clock back twenty years, there are no returning companies in the Fighters Pass.
The two characters that kicked off the pass that most consider as being from returning companies... technically aren’t. Atlus and Enix were both completely separate companies with their own original game franchises that started far, far before the acquisition and merger respectively, and literally nothing from either company appeared in Smash before Ultimate(I would say “before their DLC” but technically Atlus did have a single #FE spirit).
While I don’t necessarily 100% think that the final character has to follow the above two criteria(being an older character from a company that hasn’t had playable representation in the game yet), here are some revised #5 predictions that follow this setup:
-Master Chief (serves as Microsoft’s introduction, considering Rare separately)
-Digimon Rep (serves as Bandai’s introduction)
-Lara Croft (Eidos)
-Ryu Hayabusa(unlikely due to Sabi’s source, I’m aware, but I’m noting it anyway since it does fit the criteria to a T)
-Crash/Spyro(same as the above)
-Ratchet (Sony, since both Crash and Spyro are Activision now)
-Doomguy (Id/Bethesda)
-Scorpion (Midway)
-Gordon Freeman/TF Class (Valve)
-Reimu (Touhou Project)
The newest characters there are both from 2001, but even then it wouldn’t surprise me if the pick was substantially older. Hell, I’m still not counting out a truly out-of-nowhere retro rep like Space Invaders or Pitfall Harry.
Again, I want to stress that I don’t think that the final character absolutely 100% has to follow these criteria, it’s more of a potential theory.