I had a rather pessimistic day yesterday, pretty much rock bottom, but after hitting rock bottom, where else can you go but up?
I want to go back into detail on the things that may or may not be in Geno's favor, not just for Smash, but for a revival alongside Mallow in the future. Don't forget,
Operation Starfall is getting further solidified by the day, and we're beginning to build even more structure to the plans. We're not giving up, and even if Geno never happens in Smash, there's a lot of hope for him and Mallow in the future yet.
To try to bring hopes up, let's re-examine the things that Geno has (potentially) going for him:
1) Nintendo and Square are both perfectly aware of how much we want him to return. Nintendo of America, at the very least, has been acknowledging him and Mallow increasingly often lately after decades of little to no acknowledgment. Nintendo of Japan allowed Sakurai to negotiate with Square for the spirits and the Mii costume, plus they've got access to the ballot results, in which we know by Sakurai's words that he placed at least relatively high. Square is rumored as using Geno for leak bait (although the grounds for that are shaky). The fact that Sakurai has negotiated with them for Geno and now Mallow (with the spirit) and the idea that Square could use Geno as a distraction shows that they are at least tangentially aware of how popular he is.
2) Of all of the SE materials in the base game, apart from the necessary Cloud for 'everyone is here', the only other SE properties we have are Geno's and Mallow's spirits. The fact that they, even in all of their purported 'stinginess', allowed those two to have great spirits with involvement in WoL is incredible. While the Mii costume for Geno isn't in the base, he's only one of many third party outfits removed, possibly for future DLC, so that isn't a Square-exclusive decision there, likely a decision from NoJ and involved parties.
3) Even if we get Geno's Mii outfit to return, we don't know if that will be a deconfirmation or not unless outright stated by Sakurai. As stated before,
new Mii outfits are being considered consolation prizes, as they're being made solely for that reason. Ported Mii costumes don't count towards that as evident by K. Rool's, Isabelle's, and Chrom's returning, despite those three being upgraded to playable. The fact that his is DLC puts a different perspective on things, and while that can mean it is a deconfirmation, it could also very well not be. It's a ported costume and a quick, easy cash grab, and we know Nintendo and Square love their money. It makes sense for Square to milk Geno for all he's worth, even if he ends up playable down the line.
4) Sakurai has wanted Geno in since Brawl. The man himself wants him playable. He didn't have the time and ability to do so for Smash 4, so he made him a Mii costume as consolation. However, Sakurai has gone on record to say that they have a surplus of time and money for this Smash DLC cycle, as well as to say that he wants to put as much into Ultimate as he can. He has the time and ability, more than likely, but it's up to NoJ and Square to ultimately allow it.
5) Of all Square properties, Geno is perhaps one of the easiest to negotiate for, given Yoko Shimomura is already on the Smash team, Square is the only one Nintendo and Sakurai have to go through, and Geno is a 3rd party character for a 1st party series. On top of that, Geno is from Nintendo's flagship franchise, the Mario series, making him that much more marketable, even in his obscurity.
6) What we've heard from insiders on Geno involves a lot of shakiness and hesitance. Vergeben's source was very hesitant to outright say that Geno wasn't this Square rep that's been rumored, whereas he was quick to confirm that Sora was 'definitely not in' as a whole. On top of that, Polar's NoA source, a very reputable source of information, was told
by higher-ups, his own supervisors that Geno may possibly be DLC. There may be things that sources deeper in Nintendo and Square know that they just can't divulge, or else it'd absolutely pinpoint certain people that could lose their jobs. However, this is purely speculation.
7) Given the rumor that Erdrick was planned for base game, as Fatman has relayed to us from insider discussion, it seems like Erdrick has
no bearing on whether or not Square will get any other reps in Ultimate. As Sakurai has gone on record to state, no one was added or removed from the project plan. It would make sense for Erdrick to be planned for base with another rep, possibly Geno, to be saved for DLC, but things were shifted around to make Erdrick and another rep DLC.
8) Square loves money. They love, love money. The 'no two reps from one company' thing is a fan rule, and Ultimate has broken a lot of fan rules and will likely continue to do so. If Nintendo and Sakurai want something and can negotiate for it, they'll get it, and they've already said that no one has said 'no' to any of their requests so far. If anything, I can see Square taking advantage of Smash's DLC cycle to make as much money as possible now that Cloud is in the base game. Multiple reps is not out of the question for them. Is it unlikely? Yeah, but not impossible by any means.
9) Finally, if no one said 'no' to any of Nintendo's requests for characters, yet they clearly had some kind of negotiations for Geno, what if they did ask for Geno to become playable as DLC? If that lines up with what's been said, then that means that Square is willing to allow it. However, this can be very nuanced and Nintendo may not have requested that much, so that's a massive grain of salt thing.
10) Jon Cartwright and Tansut have both made predictions on Geno having more of a future in Ultimate. This one is to be taken with a massive wheelbarrow of salt (especially with Jon's odd certainty on that clearly fake 5chan leak with far too much depth to be real), but given they have insider sources in Nintendo and Square respectively, it wouldn't be farfetched to think that they might know something we don't.
11) Nintendo and Square are no stranger to crossovers. It's very possible they could do another sports crossover again, and who's to say they wouldn't bring Geno and Mallow back through those, now that they're aware that they're beloved characters? Their other crossovers took place before they got this wake-up call. We don't know yet what the future holds for those.
Treat this realistically and don't put your heads in the clouds. I'm feelin' pretty low about things still, but hopefully, just hopefully, this will perk some of us up and allow us to have a little bit of hope again.
Fatmanonice you said something about Square never licensing out a DQ character, right? Apparently, that's going to change with Jump Force:
