Secondly, and more importantly, I went to a tourney this past weekend, and played the first good ZSS I've played...
And it really wasn't an OMG TERRIBLE match... in fact, it really wasn't hard for me...
Yeah, he knew about the dsmash chain... and he kept trying to land it on me... through use of pivot smashes, roll smashes, double and triple smashes....
and it just...didn't...work. In two matches, I got hit with the dsmash only a couple times. Once, when I was about 40%, so it wasn't fully diminished, and I jumped out. Not a big deal. The other, he wasn't expecting to actually land it, so he botched a timing...
This reinforces what I had thought originally, be REALLY careful about the Dsmash for the first part of your stock, and it won't work in the later %s. You KNOW ZSS is going to try for it a lot...and it's just not that hard to bait and avoid... Don't be dumb and run into it... but yeah.
Other than the Dsmash, Fox has an advantage in this match, imo. He just seems to have quite a few more options here... and he can edgeguard her well, and just overall mess her up.
I'll admit that in the hands of an incredible player, Dsmash becomes a much greater threat... But even so, they have to hit it with you at a low % to land the whole chain, or it won't diminish properly, and you can jump out. I still give this an advantage to ZSS just because of the Fox player consistently having to worry about the Dsmash, but yeah. Realize that the Dsmash has decent forward range, but no backward... so you can keep mixing sides, and being in the air a LOT...and it's just not terrible. I two stocked him at least once...maybe both matches...I can't really remember, but yeah, I didn't have a problem with it.
So, I am removing this from my personal list of "wtf impossible" matchups. I'll let you all know if I figure out Pika. lol
What I posted from my own personal experience a couple weeks ago....
now for theory...there's a lot of weird stuff flying around in here.
First of all... apparently ZSS mains don't realize that Fox's Dair eats her usmash. It goes right through. it clanks with the tip of her upB, too, and keeps coming. The only upward attack that consistently works against Fox's Dair is utilt and sometimes uair.
And also, Fox has one of the largest sliding Dash shields in the game... and one of the most applicable moves out of shield in usmash.
Second... completely disregarding the "Fox forces approaches" thing... his laser is more viable, at long range, than anything she has... and therefore, he should win a long range fight... that should naturally make the ZSS need to get into attack position. That's just logic. in a normal setting, the laser will keep Fox from blindly approaching the whole match.
This perfectly spaced stuff that's flying around...... if I approach with a shield, and you go for a side-b, I'm not going to stay in my shield... I never do.. Obviously, there, the Fox should jump over or roll in. Roll in utilt works through side-B's lag... Roll in to dash shield grab warks against perfectly spaced stuff. Jump can usually lead to a Dair... but that's not given.
Thing is, side B is EASY to see coming, a bit slow, and very predictable with ZSS'sjumping arc, and easily punished. I agree, it's a great move, but Fox is too good at punishing it. Everybody here has been debating as if Fox takes the hit on his shield, and I simply don't understand why he ever would. I don't know every Fox's playstyle, but that's just speaking personally.
And on a side note, a perfectly spaced Dsmash against Fox's shield/perfect shield is punishable... don't kid yourself.
Another side point that drastically changes the matchup... ZSS has very few quick "get off me" moves out of shield... Many characters can just shield grab Fox, but her grab is slightly slower... Her utilt, jab, and usmash are decent for it, but still a bit limited. This leads to Fox being able to just be ALL OVER HER without too much fear. A lot of her moves are quick, sure... but even still, it seems like one Fox lands a hit...even on a shield, he can frame trap her REALLY well, and just overwhelm her.
In the air, ZSS's Bair is very good... but that's the only one that REALLY is a scare to Fox. uair can be, situationally. Fair seems to get eaten by a lot of Fox's aerials. Fox's Fair has nice anti-air range and priority. Nair trades with most aerials... and dair beats them from a good angle, but that's situational, too.
She also has a problem killing, as well... All of her kill moves are pretty good, but REALLY easy to predict and avoid... You really have to watch for Bair (easily the best of them), Uair, side-B, and flipstool kick... but all of these are good for certain situations only... so be aware of where you are, and watch for the situations.
In contrast, Fox, at higher %s, has to land a Dair to dsmash to put her in a very BAD position... or an usmash by itself, from a shield, from a Dair, or from a weak Nair to land fairly easy kill...
Off the stage, both characters can edgeguard the other pretty well, but both have hard times at it.
ZSS easily has the best recovery of the tether chars... but she is still a tether.. Fox is very quick, so he is able to get on and off the ledge, mixed with aerials and such, pretty quickly. His Dsmash sends the opponent at a HORRIBLE angle for her... and his Dair can be helpful for an edgeguard, but is a bit risky.
Fox, on the other hand, REALLY needs to vary his recoveries. Her Bair is very good against him, and he has to be more cautious that normal about recovery onto the stage, due to her Dsmash and other options. The main thing that keeps this tricky is the fact that if ZSS commits to hitting him off of the stage, it puts her at HUGE risk of death... it is Fox, after all.
I really think they're about even at edgeguarding capabilities here.
Things I've noticed, though, that really help Fox here:
the Dsmash "infinite" really isn't as applicable as first thought, if the Fox isn't an idiot.. (i.e. both players at tournament level skill). Of course it is still a deciding factor, but it isn't as bad as originally thought.
ZSS's Side-B is actually really simple to get around with Fox... one of her main zoning tools is mostly gone.
Shield pressure is amazing for Fox
He can combo her as nicely as a lot of characters. expect 0-30/40s consistently
She has large problems killing him, if the Fox is decent at varying recoveries (again...tourney level skill)
He has very little problem killing her, as her kill moves are situational and easy to predict/punish with a killing move of your own.
On a hilarious note, the ZSS player, after the matches was like "well, now what do I use against Fox??" hehe
I was hesitant to concede this match before, but now I REALLY am. I can admit that the threat of the Dsmash chain will probably keep this in her favor.. it's legitimate, but the fact that it has to hit early... and it's a limited move really helps Fox here.
And in my opinion, if you take the dsmash threat away completely, this match is largely in Fox's favor. He seems to have an answer to each of her options against the other characters...
With the possibility of an instant stock loss in a match, The matchup remains in her court, sure... but I would definitely limit it to 6-4 to 6.5-3.5.
7-3 denotes a hard counter, and I simply don't buy that one anymore. I think he has too many options against her.. and simply has to avoid one attack for the first part of his stock... not to mention that while she's spamming dsmash, he can just punish everything. I think I spoke things pretty well, but that's my take on it all.