Up to post #1080. Will finish to catch up during morning.
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Got to the part where Circus claims comp cop. No cclaim from me. KevM needs to die toDay. Comp cop results, KevM's behavior D1+D2, and the several cases against him support this, and based on how inactive he's been recently I'd say than that strongly indicates the guy basically surrendered.
Now, an analysis with the three scenarios:
1.- KevM town: Although the less probable scenario, it is also the best scenario imo. With Gorf Fire-Mafia dead, and Ryker+Raziek pinned scum, toNight will be interesting: At that point one scum team has already lost. Either one of Ryker/Raziek is Gorf's partner, or both are Lightning. The other team, the one still with chances of winning, will want Circus dead asap, but the other team, already pinned and defeated, doesn't have any motivation to incap Circus unless they want to screw town. If that happens (Circus killed), still two scum are confirmed, it will take more time, but with only one more scum to be found, the chances of victory for town are high. If Circus survives the Night, either clearing two more players or detecting the remaining scum, chances of victory for town are super close to 100%.
Reads:
Other than Ryker and Ryker confirmed scum, I'd look into Soup and J. Soup is a null and I didn't like the interchange Gorf/J with J talking a lot with a scum player (¿?). They both fit with these three players, so it doesn't really matter who is left alone. The paranoia effect will probably put kuz high there too if both Ryker and Raz flip Lightning but I'll still look on Soup and J first.
2.- KevM Fire-Mafia: I think this scenario has the highest chances of being the scenario will see, mostly based on Gorf's reads on this quote:
The KevinM read reeks to distancing
We also know Fire incapped Hipster N0 and Lightning incapped kuz. My bet is that KevM went after Hipster, based on meta stuff (KevM and Gheb have been playing here for ages and I suppose they have high respect on each other as good mafia players). N1 Brosuke and Gorf uncapped, and based on KevM's push on Brosuke D1, it also strengthens my bet on KevM as Fire. Gorf was also on Brosuke D1 so Brosuke being incapped could also point towards a strong agreement of Gorf and KevM picking him.
Reads:
In this scenario Circus is going to die toNight. kuz/Washed will be town-confirmed though: The chance of kuz being lightning and pulling a gambit is very unlikely, for two reasons mostly: I support what Circus said D1 about scum incapping N1 based on reputation; kuz has a strong reputation here in DGames so he could've killed himself with that gambit, and also, with a comp cop confirmed in the game, that gambit could've been ruined easily, specially again because due to kuz reputation he is N0/N1 likely target. kuz town. Lighting is among Ryker, J, Soupamario, Raziek, Brosuke, in that order. Again, Ryker is a no brainer; didn't like J's interaction with Gorf... talking with scum =/. Soup is super null, Raziek is also null, and Brosuke is also there if by discard process we still haven't found all scum at that point. With kuz confirmed town, his read on DH from the quicktopic (the one based on DH not receiving his role on time) holds more merit, but I think it still holds merit regardless of kuz' alignment.
3.- KevinM Lightning: I think this is the case which provides the lesser information for future; no conclusions for Ryker and Raziek, kuz won't be town-confirmed, and probably Circus is still gonna die unless some scum get greedy trying to kill the opposing scum via incap. This scenario is somewhat good if Circus survives, but if he doesn't I think this scenario is worse than Kevin-Fire-Mafia 'cause we won't have a town clear on kuz
In this scenario also is where we must analyze Gorf's motivations for claiming scum the most. He supposedly did that to get Ryker lynched after seeing himself in a situation in which Gorf wasn't gonna survive the incap toDay, but he didn't bring any new info onto the table; just things we all saw earlier. This kind of gambits are oriented to do some super-high-risk, super-high-reward play, but with the comp cop still unknown at the time Gorf claimed, this gambit could've been ruined easily. mmmm this is all getting quite wifomy and confusing so I'll stop now and I'll be back onto continuing analyzing this only if KevM in fact flips Lightning.
Reads
I'll probably just ignore all the wifom caused by Gorf's claim, and I'd still push on Ryker, followed by J (for the same reasons I explained in the other scenarios. He also inherited Dooms' role which was very scummy D1), Soup and Raziek. Will put an eye on Washed but still even in this case I wouldn't put him high in the scum list. Brosuke comes next and finally DH is still town lol
This list makes no sense in one part: Why isn't KevM at the same degree of scumness as Gorf, when the comp cop said him and you are different alignment?
Also, not linking how wishy-washy you're being about Ryker: one post you say he is town, then possible scum... if you weren't sure, why not call him null in the 1st place, in that pseudo-string of posts you made in page 27 (40ppp)? town-but-possibly-scum is the same thing as not saying anything, and hence serves no purpose
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I had more quotes but with Circus claim + his results they are useless. My reads are already exposed above, based also on each scenario, and yeah KevM needs to die toDay along with Gorf. I also wanted to examine a little more Gorf's motivations for claiming scum, but I'll go into that in more detail only if KevM flips something different than Fire-Mafia. Once Washed and Soupamario post and say whatever they have to say, I'll move my vote onto KevinM.
unvote