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Elements and Attributes Mafia - Game Over!

Kantrip

Kantrip

Kantplay
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Listen up everyone!

Okay, so we have a few mysteries on our hands.

1. Where was the Night Kill last Night?
2. Why didn't Sword get to AM when DH should have hasted him to go first in the NAR?
3. Where are these public messages coming from?
4. What happened to Gheb and Foxy?

I'm going to say what's up right now. We are dealing with Mafia Dark Horse and Indy Lovers Gheb and Foxy.

I'll cover Dark Horse first.

Dark Horse is confirmed to have targeted AM Night 1 with a Haste, Wind-flavoured ability that makes his target go first in the NAR. Lines up with his claim, everything checks out. Night 2 is where things went awry. Dark Horse claims to have done as he was instructed. He was told to Haste Sword who would Protect AM. However, this didn't happen, as AM never got confirmation of Sword's visit. As I've been saying, something either happened to Sword AND DH, or something happened to AM. Before, I was thinking only the latter was possible, because one of my prime scum suspects was out of the game and so only one of the two others could have been tampered with. However, let's look at this with a lying scumDH in mind. There's two avenues DH could have taken as the last mafia. For one, he could have tried to follow the plan to play it safe. Alternatively, he could have attempted to kill someone. I'm pretty sure he would have gone for option two, because he needs to thin numbers to win. So, we're covering mysteries one and two in one shot here. Nabe claims to have targeted DH, which would make DH unable to target anyone who doesn't share his alignment. As mafia, he wouldn't be able to target anyone in this case. So he wouldn't be able to get a kill off, and he wouldn't be able to Haste Sword. Why? Because him and Sword are different alignments.

Okay, I'll get into Gheb and Foxy now.

So Gheb and Foxy have pretty much held the same stances all game. When Gheb pushed for Sword, Foxy pushed for Sword. When Sword got cleared and Gheb didn't get off, Foxy also didn't get off. Foxy's either been riding townGheb's **** all game (unlikely, the slot is Rake/Ran. I don't know too much about Ran except that he doesn't try when he's not town, but Rake's not the mindless ****riding type), or something else is up. Now, all this time, I've been saying Gheb's stonewalling of PJB's and FF's lynches was scummy as balls. Let's be honest, it's pretty ridiculous that he steered away from both scum lynches so hard. That said, everyone who's been saying that's not scumGheb's style with regards to his scummates is correct. What I think was up is that he actually believed the reads, and was pushing so hard against the lynches because he wanted town points for their town flips. What he didn't know was that they actually were scum. Why can't this just be townGheb being incorrect? Well, it could be, but these reads only add to a list of reads both him AND Foxy have had this game that have been really bad. ScumSword after he was cleared being another example. Their reads were so off because they were fake. Foxy copied all of Gheb's stances because the slot wasn't trying to form its own reads (consistent with Ran scum meta), and all of Gheb's stances were really off because he wasn't scumhunting (seriously reread the game and you'll see that Gheb wasn't scumhunting... like... at al).

Whew. Okay, so we have why the indy duo makes sense play-wise. But how do they fit into the Night action play in this game?

Well, both Gheb and Foxy got called out on being neighbours by AM after he picked up on crumbs, I believe. They claimed to have had some strange mechanic with Allying or Betraying which could either make them join forces, do nothing, or kill one of them. So a prisoner's dilemna style thing. I'm not going to say this was entirely bull, but I think we all know that Gheb's choice to Ally himself with his potential partner was a strange one. AM and him had a long conversation about this earlier in the game. Betraying was statistically so much safer when you don't know what you're dealing with, why would town Gheb Ally himself? The answer is because he wasn't town, and once the indy lovers paired up, they gained new abilities at the cost of becoming life-linked. Fair balance, eh? New abilities at the cost of having to both stay alive? Alright, so what were these new abilities?

Indies in DGames usually have 2 things to help them thrive in a game: Something to mess with the rest of the game, and something for survivability. Ready? I'm about to cover mysteries 3 and 4. We've got public messages that aren't explained. I think you know where I'm going with this already. Then we have Gheb/Foxy's mysterious disappearance. Well, I've been trying to rationalize scumGheb convincing townFoxy to take off, but that doesn't make sense. I've also tried to think of a way it might be a passive that saves them from death, but that would mean they are lifelinked, and a scummer and a townie lifelinked together is stupid. Well? As indy lovers their disappearance is very much explained. This is their standard indy survivability power, and I'm thinking it's a passive since we had a public message again last Night. I tried to kill Gheb N1 and N2 with my 50% vig shot. I'm pretty sure it worked N2, triggering the indy lovers' passive, and causing them to take off.

And with that, everything is covered. Any questions and I'll be happy to clear things up, because I wrote this in one go and have done no editing. With that said,

Vote: Dark Horse
 
Kantrip

Kantrip

Kantplay
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Messages
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And if I just handed us the rest of the scummers after being right on the first two wagons of the game (not to mention starting one of them), y'all best start calling me Kanplay.
 
Aggressive Mediation

Aggressive Mediation

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You made an oversight: where did Swords' protect go if DH didn't target anyone?

Also your case against indyGheb is incredibly convenient and doesn't make sense from an indy protective.
 
Kantrip

Kantrip

Kantplay
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Aggressive Mediation said:
You made an oversight: where did Swords' protect go if DH didn't target anyone?

Also your case against indyGheb is incredibly convenient and doesn't make sense from an indy protective.
Click to expand...
Hmm you're right. Sword still should have made it to you. It would be really convenient to just say "Gheb does messages, Foxy roleblocks" or the other way around, but I don't have anything better.

Why not? His reads were laughably off, and Foxy shared all of them. PJB and FF town with Sword scum? And Foxy pushed me and RR early in the game at different points. Like, I'm realizing that Gheb hard-defending his mates like I've been suggesting isn't his style, but hard-defending people he actually believes to be town for the town points after? Totally.
 
Kantrip

Kantrip

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Sworddancer. said:
This is true.

I'll also like to add that it still doesn't explain why DH would target AM.
Click to expand...
Town points. Sure, he wouldn't know that AM has the passive ability he does, but when mafia is killing S&C, AM is the most high-profile player left. Most likely slot to be watched, it's a pro-town slot to claim to have visited with an ability like he has. FF would have been the one sending in the kill, so DH chose to toss his pro-town power in a pro-town direction so he wouldn't get screwed by a tracker or watcher later.
 
Aggressive Mediation

Aggressive Mediation

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Potassium said:
Hmm you're right. Sword still should have made it to you. It would be really convenient to just say "Gheb does messages, Foxy roleblocks" or the other way around, but I don't have anything better.
Click to expand...
Then why are you voting DH? Your entire case on him hinges on an understanding of how night actions resolved last night, yet you're clearly missing information and explanations, such as where Sworddancer's action went. Your case does not explain that and therefore you cannot be making, let alone acting, upon those assumptions. With this out of the way, where is your mafia choice? You have backed off on Gheb, who you now say is indy, so where is your third mafiat?

Why not? His reads were laughably off, and Foxy shared all of them. PJB and FF town with Sword scum? And Foxy pushed me and RR early in the game at different points. Like, I'm realizing that Gheb hard-defending his mates like I've been suggesting isn't his style, but hard-defending people he actually believes to be town for the town points after? Totally.
Click to expand...
You're stretching that, because they weren't connected at all until after N1 and their play reflects this. D1, they were actually exact opposites on a lot of reads, particularly PJB where they were at odds the entire phase. You are trying to make it into something more than it is. You're not necessarily wrong--they were completely on point D2, and that is the point where they claimed to have become neighbors. The issue is that you're trying to sell this as something bigger than it is.


See, y'know, I could take this epiphany as a whole "good job, Kantrip!" if I didn't spend so long trying to explain to why mafiaGheb doesn't make as much sense. Now suddenly with deadline looming, you're jumping at these points, which is incredible convenient. Right now, you seem to be the #1 candidate for remaining scum. You and Ruy are the least attached members to a pretty tightly-woven night phase. With JTB's vote, we can get you hammered and right now that's where we're looking. Do you have any more corrections to make to your case? If not, I'm going to vote.
 
#HBC | Dancer

#HBC | Dancer

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Potassium said:
Town points. Sure, he wouldn't know that AM has the passive ability he does, but when mafia is killing S&C, AM is the most high-profile player left. Most likely slot to be watched, it's a pro-town slot to claim to have visited with an ability like he has. FF would have been the one sending in the kill, so DH chose to toss his pro-town power in a pro-town direction so he wouldn't get screwed by a tracker or watcher later.
Click to expand...
Ehhhhhhhhhh, this is really stretching it. I agree with you that DH scum clears up a lot but a lot of assumptions have to be made to justify DH targeting AM and occam's razor states that assumptions are no good when it comes to finding the truth.

=/
 
Kantrip

Kantrip

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Aggressive Mediation said:
Then why are you voting DH? Your entire case on him hinges on an understanding of how night actions resolved last night, yet you're clearly missing information and explanations, such as where Sworddancer's action went. Your case does not explain that and therefore you cannot be making, let alone acting, upon those assumptions. With this out of the way, where is your mafia choice? You have backed off on Gheb, who you now say is indy, so where is your third mafiat?

You're stretching that, because they weren't connected at all until after N1 and their play reflects this. D1, they were actually exact opposites on a lot of reads, particularly PJB where they were at odds the entire phase. You are trying to make it into something more than it is. You're not necessarily wrong--they were completely on point D2, and that is the point where they claimed to have become neighbors. The issue is that you're trying to sell this as something bigger than it is.


See, y'know, I could take this epiphany as a whole "good job, Kantrip!" if I didn't spend so long trying to explain to why mafiaGheb doesn't make as much sense. Now suddenly with deadline looming, you're jumping at these points, which is incredible convenient. Right now, you seem to be the #1 candidate for remaining scum. You and Ruy are the least attached members to a pretty tightly-woven night phase. With JTB's vote, we can get you hammered and right now that's where we're looking. Do you have any more corrections to make to your case? If not, I'm going to vote.
Click to expand...
Still say Dark Horse is mafia.

If he's not, where's your explanation for everything that's been going on? Why didn't his haste on SD work? Could it, possibly, have something to do with Nabe magnetizing him? If something's not up with DH, it's up with Nabe, but I'm heavily leaning towards DH because it makes that much more sense. Lynching me right now is stupid though.

Like, you have your 3 scumpicks. NONE OF THEM MAKE SENSE. JTB's actions are confirmed, how is he mafia? Where is the NK? Nabe wasn't messed with last Night, so where is the NK? Gheb is gone, what's your explanation for that? I thought you've been saying he doesn't make sense as mafia? Where's the NK? Dark Horse is the best explanation and you're ignoring it because of one oversight when all of you theories have MULTIPLE.

I have to leave to get ready for my graduation soon, and I won't be back before deadline after that. I hope you all can realize that what I'm saying actually holds weight, even if you have to lynch me first to do so. Plan your Night phase smartly and please, for the love of god, lynch Dark Horse, Gheb, and Nabe. That order's the best, but if Gheb doesn't come back and the game's still going after Dark Horse, Nabe has to be next to go. Everyone else is town.

Peace and good luck
 
Kantrip

Kantrip

Kantplay
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Sworddancer. said:
Ehhhhhhhhhh, this is really stretching it. I agree with you that DH scum clears up a lot but a lot of assumptions have to be made to justify DH targeting AM and occam's razor states that assumptions are no good when it comes to finding the truth.

=/
Click to expand...
So what am I being lynched for, if assumptions are bad?
 
#HBC | Dancer

#HBC | Dancer

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Nabe said:
?
Click to expand...
I am really heavily conflicted on this.

On I'm sorry but on my good conscious I can not lynch someone who's been here the whole game, genuinely trying to the very end, is deffo not mafia, and has wore his heart on his sleeve this entire time. Kantrip has been jumping on several targets toDay which I don't like. First it was Nabe and now it's DH. This worried me just because it wasn't convincing that he really cared about who died. However I'm finding it hard to justify not liking someone for that over someone who just hasn't been here AND someone who solves Night action dilemmas.

Nabe what do you think?
 
#HBC | Dancer

#HBC | Dancer

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Also I'm not really sure either how scum Kantrip resolves Night action inconsistencies either. Someone will have to explain that one to me.
 
Aggressive Mediation

Aggressive Mediation

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Potassium said:
Like, you have your 3 scumpicks. NONE OF THEM MAKE SENSE. JTB's actions are confirmed, how is he mafia? Where is the NK? Nabe wasn't messed with last Night, so where is the NK? Gheb is gone, what's your explanation for that? I thought you've been saying he doesn't make sense as mafia? Where's the NK? Dark Horse is the best explanation and you're ignoring it because of one oversight when all of you theories have MULTIPLE.
Click to expand...
Where is the NK, where is the NK, where is the NK has been something I have been preaching all day phase, don't spit it back at me. The issue with Dark Horse is twofold: where is the NK and where's the roleblock? In order for DH to have interfered, he would have needed some sort of endgame. He can NARboost himself and shoot someone--but he didn't. Yes, he was paralyzed, but in order for this night phase to have played out, he would have ignored every other slot, no killed, and had a roleblock in addition to a NAR on one role. With Gheb, the NK evaporates into smoke. It's literally the only reason I have him as scum--it's the single simplest solution to where the NK even went. JTB's actions are confirmed but if he has a NK in addition, he had nothing touching him from stopping him to pull the trigger; however, once more, I don't see why he would shoot Gheb or Foxy. Nabe is in a similar boat. He has a magnetize which works as a functional roleblock and nothing that prevented him from shooting outside of it, but once more, I don't understand why he shoots Gheb or Foxy. Ruy theoretically could have pulled a trigger but I doubt it both because of the way he's played the game. I think he's town, whereas I think JTB or Nabe's slot have offered little for the game to analyze on play and both have questionable NA choices in regards to their roles. I'm still confused as to why JTB targeted BadWolf as well.

Kantrip, we are lynching you because of things I have previously outlined. Your play is very solid, but your claim is rather garbage--a 50/50 vig in the rest of this game seems so balls and your targets (both nights being Gheb when we had inactiveHando and inactiveJTB around) do not make sense. Your play is solidly not-mafia, similarly to Ruy, however you have solid links to being an indy. This is probably the best shot we have at lynching scum. Outside of that, it's a shot in the dark at PoE picks. The advantage to keeping you around is to see if the neighborhood comes back regardless of your role and we find any information they can give us about their roles.
 
#HBC | Nabe

#HBC | Nabe

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Sworddancer. said:
I am really heavily conflicted on this.

On I'm sorry but on my good conscious I can not lynch someone who's been here the whole game, genuinely trying to the very end, is deffo not mafia, and has wore his heart on his sleeve this entire time. Kantrip has been jumping on several targets toDay which I don't like. First it was Nabe and now it's DH. This worried me just because it wasn't convincing that he really cared about who died. However I'm finding it hard to justify not liking someone for that over someone who just hasn't been here AND someone who solves Night action dilemmas.

Nabe what do you think?
Click to expand...
I voiced those same qualms about Kantrip's vote for me a couple pages back. But I put DH back on the table because I realized it cleared up the other problems from the thread. I've been suspicious of him since joining the game, hence my NA on him. DH is a good pick.

If you think Kantrip is indy, then see this as an attempt to take a truth (DH is mafia) and pair it with a falsehood (indy pair) to give himself lynch room down the road. DH being mafia is a separate and potentially powerful point.
 
Aggressive Mediation

Aggressive Mediation

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Sworddancer. said:
Also I'm not really sure either how scum Kantrip resolves Night action inconsistencies either. Someone will have to explain that one to me.
Click to expand...
A lot of information lies in the neighborhood that we don't have. I'm not saying we can't act because of it, I'm simply saying we cannot rush to conclusions based on issues with the information we have right now because that neighborhood probably holds the rest of the answers to the questions that we currently have. There is too much left on the board to assume we will be able to answer everything with a single flip. Right now, the unknown factors that may or may not overlap are the neighborhood, one mafia, and one independent, and one possible indy lovers. There may be overlap between these possibilities.
 
Aggressive Mediation

Aggressive Mediation

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Sworddancer. said:
Okay noooooooooooo.

Lets lynch Nabe. Or DH.

Vote: DH
Click to expand...
Why? What prompted the switch? The primary reason Kantrip put him forward is because he clears up NA inconsistencies--but how? There are still questions that won't be answered. Where did Swords' protect go? He'd have both a NAR boost and a NK that he could use in tandem with a roleblock that somehow beat out Nabe's magnetize in NAR. He doesn't have any endgame in mind as mafia here if this is the case.
 
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