Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[True Blue Warrior]

It would be funny if the last character ended up being someone like Octoling, who I doubt would be considered a let down in Japan considering how big Splatoon is over there.

Also I have an idea for buffing Little Mac.

At the very least, I feel like Kazuya will end up being the bigger reveal between the last two characters. I can't imagine why they'd skip out on revealing a more exciting reveal when they have their largest audience of the year.

Honestly though, this last character is doomed to be controversial. Unless the character is someone ridiculously popular, opinions will be all over the place on how this character compares to Sephiroth or Min Min in terms of how hype they are. A lot of people feel like Bayo was a low note for Smash 4 to end on, others feel like she was a high note. The same will probably repeat itself here.

The last character won’t be as controversial as Byleth

 

[Willbuysmash4mw]

Post-release spirit events do deconfirm, especially ones that took place only a year and a half ago. Only base game spirits have been promoted, and that was content decided on years ago. I do get Capcom heavily promoting the series lately, but not everything leads to Smash.

Which means a Pokémon isn’t coming, as I said.

The Min Min and Pyra spirits were made before they knew there would even be a 2nd pass.

It’s not just that only base game spirits can be promoted but actually only Xenoblade 2 and Arms spirits specifically, because those two are the ones Sakurai mentioned as what he wanted in the base game but couldn’t get in because he ran out of time.

 

[The Rhythm Theif]

Thats okay though, because pretty much everything you’d want from SNK is already represented in some way.

Aside from you know who...

 

[Theguy123]

Which means a Pokémon isn’t coming, as I said.

The Min Min and Pyra spirits were made before they knew there would even be a 2nd pass.

It’s not just that only base game spirits can be promoted but actually only Xenoblade 2 and Arms spirits specifically, because those two are the ones Sakurai mentioned as what he wanted in the base game but couldn’t get in because he ran out of time.

any base game spirit can be upgraded. There’s no rules and more importantly you aren’t Nintendo or sakurai so you don’t even get to make the rules.

just because sakurai has specifically said he wanted arms and xenoblade 2 in base roster, it doesn’t mean they’re the only ones that can get promoted. That’s ridiculous.

Anyone who says there’s rules other than 4th party reps not being allowed is being ridiculous. You ain’t sakurai.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

because those two are the ones Sakurai mentioned as what he wanted in the base game

That’s a misconception, he never said that.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Aside from you know who...View attachment 326819

Yeah it's wild they didn't reference Rugal at all beyond the letter in Terry's Trailer

 

[The Rhythm Theif]

Yeah it's wild they didn't reference Rugal at all beyond the letter in Terry's Trailer

And they don't even reference Rera either, despite her appearing in pretty much the entire mainline SamSho games (the two 64 games included) either in person or as Purple Nakoruru.

 

[Schnee117]

Yeah it's wild they didn't reference Rugal at all beyond the letter in Terry's Trailer

That's because the final character is Rugal
But not just regular ol' Rugal, not even Omega Rugal

It's God Rugal

 

[GilTheGreat19]

Wow…
And I thought that after Cloud, we’d all understand that anything can happen.

And for the last time, EVERY CHARACTER HAS HISTORICALLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE RECEIVED WITH MORE POSITIVITY THAN NEGATIVITY

 

[Inferno7]

I’ve said this before but honestly I’m gonna roll the die and say that the last character revealed is going to be a Resident Evil character, mostly likely Jill. I have no “evidence” besides the fact that CAPCOM has been promoting Resident Evil very heavily recently it’s in the public consciousness, and since we’ve gotten FF7, Minecraft & Tekken... Resident Evil is one of the biggest franchises both in the states and overseas. Yes we’ve already gotten a ton of CAPCOM Mii Costumes but like how the characters that were assigned with Kazuya were mostly random it could just as easily be more DLC costumes for characters people really wanted or just whatever Nintendo wants to promote. Yes, I know about the Spirit Battles and everything but cmon, I think nothing aside from maybe assist trophies really de-confirm at this point.

As someone who thought RE was on the table even after the event, I think there's a glaring issue

If there was a RE spirit board, would it really make sense to have Jill/Leon, Wesker and co. as below Legend Class spirits? Not big on RE but I assume Nemesis could fit, however, his design might be a bit too grotesque

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

And what data is there that we could get a big third party as CP11?

Still none, but the absence of data for something isn't good enough as evidence when there isn't any data against it.

 

[GilTheGreat19]

Spirits with big mouths.

Darn wonder which one will be the legend class iykyk

 

[Ivander]

I don't know. If Phantasy Star does get in, but it's a character from PSO2, I'm not sure how people would react. Japan would probably react positively though as they had Phantasy Star Online 2 for much longer, but I'm not sure how the West would react since PSO2 finally only recently came out to the West. Not to mention PSO2 is very anime(like, it's just so frickin' anime, in looks, gameplay, cutscenes, tropes, you name it) and the main Avatar character does use a sword, which tends to set off alot of Smash fans.

 

[cj.]

pretty much everything you’d want from SNK is already represented in some way.

with the exception of The Last Blade and World Heroes

 

[chocolatejr9]

Darn wonder which one will be the legend class iykyk
View attachment 326820

Why are we still here.. just to suffer?

 

[Perkilator]

Thats okay though, because pretty much everything you’d want from SNK is already represented in some way.

We're only missing Rock Howard and his rockin' theme song, Spread the Wings.

 

[3BitSaurus]

I don't know. If Phantasy Star does get in, but it's a character from PSO2, I'm not sure how people would react. Japan would probably react positively though as they had Phantasy Star Online 2 for much longer, but I'm not sure how the West would react since PSO2 finally only recently came out to the West. Not to mention PSO2 is very anime(like, it's just so frickin' anime, in looks, gameplay, cutscenes, tropes, you name it) and the main Avatar character does use a sword, which tends to set off alot of Smash fans.

Honestly, it probably wouldn't be that bad. At the absolute worst, some initial reactions like Hero's would show up from westerners. But I don't think it would be overwhelmingly bad. P/M and Sephiroth had mostly positive reactions, from what I saw.

Speaking of, you convinced me to feed my soul to try out PSO2. Having a blast in New Genesis so far.

 

[Ivander]

Thats okay though, because pretty much everything you’d want from SNK is already represented in some way.

I don't see no King of the Monsters, so that's a lie.

Speaking of, you convinced me to feed my soul to try out PSO2. Having a blast in New Genesis so far.

Awesome. Although just to be clear, new PSO2:NGS content is going to be slow, so you don't want to rush/you'll want to take your time or do some original PSO2 as there is plenty to do in original PSO2, although be ready for some gameplay element changes as original PSO2 does have some gameplay differences due to being mission-based rather than open-world.

 

[Willbuysmash4mw]

That’s a misconception, he never said that.

Yes he did.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I don't know. If Phantasy Star does get in, but it's a character from PSO2, I'm not sure how people would react. Japan would probably react positively though as they had Phantasy Star Online 2 for much longer, but I'm not sure how the West would react since PSO2 finally only recently came out to the West. Not to mention PSO2 is very anime(like, it's just so frickin' anime, in looks, gameplay, cutscenes, tropes, you name it) and the main Avatar character does use a sword, which tends to set off alot of Smash fans.

Psshh, those people get set off at anything that isn't someone who looks like this with a punch punch kick as a jab

If this happens, enjoy yourself, do not give a flying **** about what negative strangers on the internet have to say

 

[cj.]

I don't see no King of the Monsters, so that's a lie.

Oh god i love that franchise, i forgot to mention it before

 

[Theguy123]

I don't know. If Phantasy Star does get in, but it's a character from PSO2, I'm not sure how people would react. Japan would probably react positively though as they had Phantasy Star Online 2 for much longer, but I'm not sure how the West would react since PSO2 finally only recently came out to the West. Not to mention PSO2 is very anime(like, it's just so frickin' anime, in looks, gameplay, cutscenes, tropes, you name it) and the main Avatar character does use a sword, which tends to set off alot of Smash fans.

anything can happen so I’m not writing it off but isn’t phantasy star relativity quite small sales wise. Seems a bold move for Nintendo to rely on phantasy star to end the pass and keep most happy especially with how niche it is in the west.

I know it’s made around 900 million but that’s from gatcha stuff bought by those who play the game and not the actual sales from buying the game which I believe was relatively

You’d think at the bare minimum it would be a rep who’s at least got some level of popularity in the west.

not writing it off though

 

[GilTheGreat19]

Not to mention Phantasy Star is SEGA
A front runner company for this pack
If they decide to pick them AND go a non-Sonic route, that is.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

i thought sephiroth was meant to be first. Didn’t Nintendo accidentally post an image that had sephiroth as challenger pack 6 just before his presentation and then quickly deleted it or am I miss remembering things

You’re 100% confusing this with the SNK leak because that was the only DLC character that was leaked on the Smash website.

 

[SKX31]

You know thinking about it, it really is weird how Min Min/ARMS was the opener for FP2. Like you look at the first pass and there's a pretty clear trajectory: kick it off with a cool surprising third party pick with Joker at TGA and get people immediately on board for FP1, then escalate the hype even further at E3 with Hero and freaking Banjo-Kazooie, and then start to slowly wind things down after everyone's bought the pass with a more low key reveal at the September Direct in the form of Terry and then finish the pass with yet another FE rep lol.

But with FP2 they made the weird decision of starting it off with an ARMS character of all things, and not only that, but it seems like they were planning on just having her be the sole reveal for E3 that year, which just seems so much more low key in comparison to 2018 (where the game was fully announced with everyone returning + Ridley) or 2019 (which again had Hero and Banjo). Meanwhile Steve, unarguably the biggest character of the pass and really the biggest Ultimate newcomer of them all), was also seemingly just planned on being revealed in an ordinary Nintendo Direct in September.

Just seems kinda odd they didn't switch things around and try to prioritise Steve as the first FP2 character revealed at E3 (before COVID oops), and then save Min Min for September.

i thought sephiroth was meant to be first. Didn’t Nintendo accidentally post an image that had sephiroth as challenger pack 6 just before his presentation and then quickly deleted it or am I miss remembering things

I suspect the main reason why is balancing and post-release reception.

ARMS as an IP is built on and based around the idea of the playable characters fighting with really, really long, well, limbs. Like a certain Street Fighter character - Dhalsim - but with the stretchy arms being even more central than Dhalsim's stretchy limbs. This works in ARMS since everyone there has Dhalsim limbs... but not so in Smash.

This creates a major balancing act: it inherently means that an opponent approaching the ARMS character has to guess right once or twice in order to even approach the ARMS character. That's in neutral, where neither character has taken a hit. If the ARMS character lands a hit the opponent oftentimes has to go back to the drawing board. And that is the ARMS character guessing right once.

However, unlike Dhalsim - who tends to struggle up close - Smash's zoners generally also have fast escape / out of shield options. For example, Samus' Screw Attack comes out in 6 frames (1/10th of a second) - no human can react to it - the attack has to be anticipated. Link's Spin Attack is just one frame slower than Samus', but kills pretty early if the strong hit connects. Human reaction times are generally 1/6th of a second for sound (10 frames) and 1/4th of a second for sight (15 frames). That does not count the 5 frame buffer, nor online. Most attacks in Smash are so fast that people looking to shield will oftentimes do so preemptively.

Min Min also has this quick option - her Up Smash is currently at 8 frames, the same as Fox's (and pre-nerf it was one frame faster). That's her strongest kick. Oh and it has a reflector, meaning Min Min also has a quick answer for opponents trying to zone her back. Even if an opponent successfully approaches her (or a lot of zoners) it doesn't mean the approacher gains the advantage. Sure, she - like Link and Samus above - have a lot of endlag, but the start-up is what matters here.

Aaand I didn't mention the fact that the ARMS' long reach also ensure that ledge / off stage scenarios are a pain in the ass for a lot of opponents to deal with at minimum.

In FFAs an ARMS character may not be so inherently potent because FFAs have 2 or more opponents - that said, FFAs oftentimes have one or two players that try to zone / play defensive - whether it is to keep the lead as long as possible, stall for a KO opportunity, or just to fool around. Also, a lot of casual players have trouble dealing with projectiles or other zoning tools. That means that an ARMS character can also become an issue in casual environments - especially since the ARMS playing style might not be considered as exciting as say Falcon's or DK's by a lot of people.

With the above, it becomes imperative to make sure that the strengths are not overwhelming to the point of intense frustration (for casual or more seriously-inclined folks) and that the weaknesses are there still. They decided to go with Min Min being very vurnerable once she's hit / in disadvantage, very poor airspeed meaning she's prone to being juggled, and a recovery that can be intercepted / hit out of.

That said, by releasing the ARMS character first out of FP2 they get the most time possible to listen to feedback and adjust accordingly. I'm pretty sure they'd rather want to avoid a / scenario where two late comers prove so contentious / potentially overwhelming that the conversation starts to centre around those characters. Sm4sh's Bayo saw two patches post-release, Min Min has already seen four (five if you count Small Battlefield). It's also a rwason why I'm hoping that they go with at least three post-CP11 balance patches.

And considering how the reaction has been (especially in Japan, but also amongst quite a few Westerners)... yeah the reaction has reached Sakurai and co's ears. There's been quite a few minor nerfs handed out to try and make her strengths a bit less overwhelming and her weaknesses a bit more defined. They're evidently trying to keep her strengths intact (as they would try to with any ARMS character - they don't want Min Min to be especially weak, that'd defeat the point).

Yes, most of the other FP2 characters also break the mold, but they don't have the sheer range (and thus potentially a massive advantage over most of the cast) that the ARMS provide. Sephiroth's Masamune comes kinda close, but even then it's shorter and he was released after Min Min has been out for 5ish months. Meaning that they had a kinda sorta "blueprint" for Sephiroth.

 

[GilTheGreat19]

You’re 100% confusing this with the SNK leak because that was the only DLC character that was leaked on the Smash website.

Actually, I believe that Theguy may be right on that.

Smash Speculation AFTER the Geno Mii Costume - PapaGenos

Time to get back to Smash Speculation!!! Going over Smash Speculation AFTER the Geno Mii Costume and the Mr. Sakurai Presents Sephiroth video!!!Nintendo Dire...

www.youtube.com

24:42

Dw Theyguy123 I gotchu homie

 

[Theguy123]

You’re 100% confusing this with the SNK leak because that was the only DLC character that was leaked on the Smash website.

I remember papagenos talking about it. Apparently Nintendo uploaded an image before sephiroth’s presentation that said challenger pack 6 and then had sephiroth’s details but then deleted it very quickly which sparked theory’s that sephiroth was meant to be the pass opener. I’m 100% sure. I can go find the video if you want me to and then screenshot the post and post it here if you want me to

 

[Ivander]

anything can happen so I’m not writing it off but isn’t phantasy star relativity quite small sales wise. Seems a bold move for Nintendo to rely on phantasy star to end the pass and keep most happy especially with how niche it is in the west.

I know it’s made around 900 million but that’s from gatcha stuff bought by those who play the game and not the actual sales from buying the game which I believe was relatively

You’d think at the bare minimum it would be a rep who’s at least got some level of popularity in the west.

not writing it off though

PSO2 is free-to-play, so no, it wouldn't have any sales. But because it's free to play, it has to rely on Lottery/Gacha-elements, or as they are called in PSO2, AC Scratches and SG Scratches, with it's outfits. Because that's the only way PSO2 earns SEGA money, is with the system that comes with F2P. To the game's credit, all of the AC stuff can be put on the Personal Shop(aka the game's equivalent to a "Market" feature), so thankfully, if you save your in-game money(even if it has to be alot of it), you can get stuff without needing to pay real money.

The only stuff that can't be put on the Personal Shop is the SG Scratch stuff, but you do gain SG gradually and sometimes they give quite a good amount of SG. But that said, you often want to save those for other better features like the Material Storage, which is a godsend, but also something you have to up-keep as it only lasts for either 30 days or 90 days. That said, a nice feature they gave for the NGS SG Scratches is a Daily Scratch that you can do once per day, so if you're lucky and get what you want, you won't need to worry much about SG.

Edit: 3BitSaurus Oh, before I forget, here's something nice for Meseta making in PSO2: NGS.

https://twitter.com/rappyburst

Basically, keep a lookout on the Alpha Reactor posts. Every day, you can get up to 14 Alpha Reactors a day and sell them for 49,000 Meseta altogether. If you do all the Alpha Reactors every day of the week, you get about 343,000 Meseta a week. When you are able to do all the Weekly Missions, you get 700,000 Meseta a week, so the Weekly Missions plus the Alpha Reactors give you about 1,043,000 Meseta a week.
That'll be useful for not just upgrading your weapons and Armor units, but also for saving up for stuff on the Personal Shop, as some things like hairstyles, Weapon Camos, etc are often sold around the 2-5 Million Meseta mark.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Yes he did.

Nope, this is the only thing he said in regards to Xenoblade 2 and ARMS for the base roster.

 

[Cosmic77]

Considering how the Heihachi costume was revealed about one year before a Tekken fighter was added, I'd advise against treating DLC Spirits and the franchises/games they represent as hard deconfirms.

I mean, with the exception of Steve, every fighter in this pass has danced around existing content. While I do think it'd be weird to make Spirits that relate to an upcoming fighter, I also can understand that the Spirits work as easy promotion for recent releases. They aren't very time-consuming, and we've already seen through Min Min and Pyra how they'd handle making a Spirit Board for a game with existing Spirits.

Personally, even if the last character isn't related to an existing Spirit, I still think people are too quick to label characters as deconfirmed just because of a Spirit Event, especially when it comes to Spirits that are one, maybe two years old by now.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

This creates a major balancing act: it inherently means that an opponent approaching the ARMS character has to guess right once or twice in order to even approach the ARMS character. That's in neutral, where neither character has taken a hit. If the ARMS character lands a hit the opponent oftentimes has to go back to the drawing board. And that is the ARMS character guessing right once.

However, unlike Dhalsim - who tends to struggle up close - Smash's zoners generally also have fast escape / out of shield options. For example, Samus' Screw Attack comes out in 6 frames (1/10th of a second) - no human can react to it - the attack has to be anticipated. Link's Spin Attack is just one frame slower than Samus', but kills pretty early if the strong hit connects. Human reaction times are generally 1/6th of a second for sound (10 frames) and 1/4th of a second for sight (15 frames). That does not count the 5 frame buffer, nor online. Most attacks in Smash are so fast that people looking to shield will oftentimes do so preemptively.

It’s weird that projectile invincibility frames isn’t something that is widely implemented among characters that struggle with projectiles. Characters like Ganondorf, Kirby and Luigi could use tools like these.

 

[Shroob]

So, what'll you think they'll do next week?


Last week was Nindies
This week was Pokemon


I kinda doubt we'll get the General Direct next week, probably a week of downtime until September rolls around, but I still think they'll drop something, maybe a new game like last year when they randomly dropped that Kirby game.

 

[Theguy123]

was just thinking, if the last character is from an M rated game or series then we’ll officially have an M rated character/series in base roster, pass 1 and pass 2. Kinda neat

simon being the M rated base roster character/series

joker being the M rated pass 1 character/series

and then whoever the M rated character/series is if they’re last

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I’m still kinda feeling a stand-alone Smash Ultimate Final Video Presentation next week

idk why but I just feel it in my bones

 

[CannonStreak]

I’m still kinda feeling a stand-alone Smash Ultimate Final Video Presentation next week

idk why but I just feel it in my bones

Yeah, you're being too overconfident on that.

 

[Shroob]

I’m still kinda feeling a stand-alone Smash Ultimate Final Video Presentation next week

idk why but I just feel it in my bones

As neat as it'd be, I kinda doubt it.


The September Direct will be the last Direct for the year for Nintendo, announcing the character early would basically cause a huge amount of people to not tune in.

 

[GilTheGreat19]

I’m still kinda feeling a stand-alone Smash Ultimate Final Video Presentation next week

idk why but I just feel it in my bones

Part of me wants you to be right

the other part of me only wants a small official hint (and/or maybe) teaser IF ANYTHING

 

[Theguy123]

I hope the last character is someone nobody is expecting or talking about. Obviously I hope it’s someone I know but the chances of that happening are low since I don’t play that many games so i just hope it’s a character and franchise no one is expecting so I can at least feel surprised.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

I’m still kinda feeling a stand-alone Smash Ultimate Final Video Presentation next week

idk why but I just feel it in my bones

I’m not mentally prepared for the final fighter next week lol.

Feels like Kazuya released yesterday.

 

[CannonStreak]

I hope the last character is someone nobody is expecting or talking about. Obviously I hope it’s someone I know but the chances of that happening are low since I don’t play that many games so i just hope it’s a character and franchise no one is expecting so I can at least feel surprised.

Okay then, Bubsy, anyone?