Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[ShotoStar]

I feel like we've had this conversation before...

Anyways, it's certainly possible just as it's possible for any character to be Mii Costume'd (my heart goes out to the Geno fans), but I doubt it if only because of how influential Half-Life is as a series. There's a stark difference between popular internet funnyman Sans and literal genre-definer Gordon Freeman, you know?

Okay but Sans tho?

Nah fr fr I underestimated Mr. Freeman, Gordon Ramsey Freeman himself. I feel as if they did contact Valve for Smash it'd most likely be for a character in Smash, Freeman being a frontrunner but a TF2 character or whoever else could happen but on technicality being Mii Costume'd could happen just saying. I mean they did Mii c--

 

[Wunderwaft]

A solid writeup indeed. Valve is definitely a massive company; Maybe we should start considering them a bit more.

Admittedly, I know jack about Half-Life and Gordon Freeman beyond a Crowbar, and HEV Suit, and apparently a Gravity Gun. Can I get a rundown on his arsenal and what he can do?

If you want an idea on how Gordon could play then someone posted a cool moveset in the thread before, allow me to repost it.

Besides this he has access to other wacky weaponry like the Hivehand, which is an alien weapon that fires homing hornets. Snarks, which are small aliens that run around the stage harming everyone in their path, including Freeman after a set time. In terms of potential Gordon brings a lot of unique ideas.

 

[Louie G.]

Honestly, if we ever got a Valve character I think it would be Chell from Portal. People usually go between Gordon and a TF2 merc but Portal strikes me as a series with more general appeal with, correct me if I'm wrong, a bit more success in Japan as well. And similarly to Half Life, it's often touted as one of the greatest games ever made. Not to mention how much fun creating a moveset around portal shenanigans would be.

Personally I'd prefer TF2 get represented over all of them but I recognize that it's the clear weak link of the three. It doesn't have the historical significance of Half Life or the marketability and brand recognition of Portal... but it's a damn good game that I hold a great deal of nostalgia for.

and that Punch-Out’s battle themes (for the Wii) being remixes of the same theme maybe rubbed the devs the wrong way.

Dammit, if ARMS can have all of its amazing songs that use the same motif then Punch Out can too. It's not fair!

Seriously, I have so many gripes about Punch-Out's lacking representation you have no idea. I'm thankful it gets to be here at all but... man, it gets treated like a retro game like Ice Climber or Duck Hunt rather than a trilogy that spanned three generations of consoles on top of two arcade games.

We don't even have an Assist Trophy - which is a travesty considering all of the amazing enemy boxer characters who are just bursting at the seams with personality and potential for that role.

 

[Flyboy]

If they add a Left 4 Dead survivor I hope they come with Mario Party music.

Great write-up DaybreakHorizon . Gordon or any Valve rep would be awesome. I would love to see a Half Life 2 Switch port, as unlikely as it is, and my desired Valve rep for Smash changes by the day.

 

[cashregister9]

Another big part of Gordon Freeman and the Half-life Series is the concept of "Run. Think. Shoot. Live." If this concept is applied to Smash Bros. in any way it could make a really faithful Freeman move set. Like Gordon could be a very tactical fighter that is fast but also needs to make quick decisions so he can survive or something like that.

 

[Perkilator]

Whoever wants to imagine Gordon's Classic Mode, there's a thread for that.

 

[cashregister9]

Whoever wants to imagine Gordon's Classic Mode, there's a thread for that.

I've done one but I'd love to see other takes on this, there are a lot of ways you can go for Gordon

 

[PLATINUM7]

Not sure what I can contribute to Gordon discussion beyond the following.

Spoiler: kek

I've only very briefly played a Half Life game.

 

[JamesDNaux]

You guys aren't thinking with portals.

 

[RetrogamerMax]

It’s Lloyd or Yuri. Next

Jim Ross: Lloyd vs Yuri next live tonight on Monday Night Raw!

 

[7NATOR]

The Potential of Valve characters in Smash Bros is just a Small part of the puzzle that shows that even if we lose Characters along the Way, Smash Bros as a Franchise still has alot of Potential to have a Very Enticing Roster for gamers, Casuals, etc of all demographics, for the future at least


I Don't think a Valve character is happening, but perhaps Eventually. I do think the Portal Gun has to show up in Smash in some form, even as just an Item

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

You guys aren't thinking with portals.

That's actually a really neat visual on how big portals would be. I might make them a teensy bit smaller in order to make the stage control not super ridiculous.

There's only one thing that can go wrong...

shudders in free-for-all matches

 

[JamesDNaux]

That's actually a really neat visual on how big portals would be. I might make them a teensy bit smaller in order to make the stage control not super ridiculous.

There's only one thing that can go wrong...

shudders in free-for-all matches

They'd need to be big enough for Ridley to squeeze through.

 

[Idon]

I can't even FATHOM the amount of glitches a seamless Portal type portal would invite, or really, if that's even technologically possible.

 

[cothero]

Although i love the idea of having Gordon in smash, his chances seems as good as none to me. I brought the idea of how unlikely it would be to have Scorpion or Gordon ever getting added in smash in the last discussion thread, but Scorpion's chances looks better than Gordon's to me, despising Mortal Kombat violence and bad reception in Japan. Someone else brought the fact that Valve actually had one Portal game released on Switch, but the game was developed by ClockStone, and not Valve:

Bridge Constructor Portal - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

If he ever gets in, one of most respected Sakurai's condition would be broken: a character that never had any collaboration with or never have been released in a Nintendo console getting in smash. Sakurai staded multiple times that they'll only add characters from games that have been released at least in one Nintendo console. Let's use Cloud as an exemple: FF7 was never released on a Nintendo console, but Final Fantasy in general had a lot of games in nintendo hardwares, so it was natural to have him added. The same goes to Joker: a Persona game (Q: Shadow of the Labyrinth) was released on the 3DS back in 2014.

Unfortunately, Valve or Half-life have never been anywhere near a Nintendo platform and the same goes to people who think that Master Chief will ever get added in smash: it's very different to have Microsoft reps that have been in Nintendo consoles like Banjo (as Rare) or Steve and a Xbox exclusive character like Master Chief.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

If Gordon gets in and there's no ragdoll physics, I say we riot.

 

[Guynamednelson]

If Gordon gets in and there's no ragdoll physics, I say we riot.

ANY Valve rep should come with janky Havok physics.

 

[cashregister9]

ANY Valve rep should come with janky Havok physics.

If I can't do an accelerated back hop then why bother?

 

[7NATOR]

Well since Valve was mentioned, I'm wondering if we get another Western Company in this pass, there's

Activision/Blizzard
Ubisoft
Bethesda
WB Games/Netherrealm Studios
Tencent/Riot
Valve
EA
Epic Games
Take Two
Rockstar
Sony

-Ubisoft and Bethesda did get New Mii Costumes, and depending on that, they might be off the table

-Take Two and Rockstar (I think they are releated) I honestly think are the only companies that probably don't want to be ascioated with Smash, or at least don't care, except maybe Sony

-Sony is Sony

-I think if Fortnite was in, TGA would have been a good time, but then again Anytime is good time I guess. However I'm not sure on Fortnite. I do think that Nintendo perhaps has an interest in More hardcore shooter and/or Battle Royale character in Smash

-I think Gabe did show interest in Smash, but that was Very Recently. I think for Ultimate Valve isn't in the Cards, but Next game is more interesting

-EA is interesting, with stuff like Doug Bowser, and i guess the rumors about Apex in Smash. I've been someone that's actually took the idea seriously, but thinking about it, considering how long Negotiations take and that Apex Debuted in Early 2019, I don't think they would be able to negotiate a Character in time, at least a full playable character, especially considering EA is a Western company. I'll still keep it in mind, Because perhaps EA might surprise us

Also Apex isn't even officially on Switch yet, but it should be soon

and in regards to the other EA Characters like Plants vs Zombie, I personally don't thin so

-Tencent has been helping Nintendo get the Switch in China, and they, along with Riot, been working on projects like Pokemon Moba and stuff. There's there's the League leak, and Riot has shown so much interest in Smash they've made a Project M Mod. MOBA's aren't a Genre that the Nintendo Audience isn't familiar with, though League universe is getting games that delve into other more console oriented Genres, like RPGs.


-Ed Boon has shown interest in Smash for like 5 Years I believe, and Nintendo themselves said there's still an audience for Mortal Kombat on Switch when WB Games themselves were doubting it. I could see negotiations for Mortal Kombat character occuring because I think with Ed's Early interest, there was at least time to take their time negotiating and stuff. However with that being said, I don't know about How much WB Games would ask for. I've not seen Mortal Kombat crossovers at all that's not within WB owned properties. I'm not taking crossovers back when Midway owned the franchise, since that's different ownership. There's also the issues with Lack of Appeal in Japan, and how to represent the Fatalities, but I think Mortal Kombat is not such a far out idea

-Regarding Activision/Blizzard, I think on Nintendo's End there's some evidence to suggest they might have had more interest in Tracer than Crash, with how they had the Overwatch bundle, Free trial, starting a Nintendo direct, etc. Weirdly though, Jeff, the head guy of Blizzard, words it like Nintendo never approached him for Overwatch Characters. There's also those rumors about Tracer being planned, but it didn't happen. I think perhaps Activision might have gotten in the way, before Nintendo could talk to Blizzard. I don't think the Controversy would impact Tracer not making it, since it happened too late for her to be cut, unless she was meant to be in Fighter Pass 2

Regarding Crash, I'll be honest and Say that I don't think Crash will be in this DLC, just straight up, but that's just a Feeling though. Regarding the facts, there's rumors like the Crash Document, though there's no evidence to point towards there actually being Stuff about Smash in 2020/2021. Even if there was, that doesn't mean Crash is in. Activision might not be the easiest Company to work with in terms of negotiating a Character. Regarding Nintendo's Interest, I'm not sure. They did call him an icon in the Switch direct when announcing the Trilogy ports, so they perhaps seem him in High regards. I actually don't know how to feel about Crash. I just don't personally think he's in, but that's just me

 

[ChunkySlugger72]

ANY Valve rep should come with janky Havok physics.

Not a bad idea to implement Havok physics engine considering Microsoft is already on board.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Like it or not characters like Waluigi is gonna have to wait until Smash game. There's also a difference between spirits and assists. The former being basically just an image as opposed to assists that are already model animations of characters already made. Assist promotions is wishful thinking and those in denial that people can't accept their character being deconfirmed.

ATs aren’t as hard to make as fighters.

We also only have precedent for one Smash game, as it and this one are the only Smash games to have DLC, with this one having a second season even which started almost two years after the base game was released.

Also, Bomberman, an AT, still got a mii costume as DLC, a mii costume which looks identical to the AT. Min Min, too, while spirits are different than ATs, shows they likely don’t care much about the character already being represented, not to mention Spring Man may have been considered before Min Min was settled on. ATs can also be disabled on certain stages, with a good number of stages disabling multiple of them, so they could likely do the same for if a certain fighter is selected.

They may be disconfirmed, they may not be; AT upgrades could very well not happen at all, but let’s not assert people are somehow in denial when we have good reason to believe Nintendo and Sakurai don’t care and will add a character like Isaac or Waluigi etc. if they want to despite already being given a role two years ago (the length of time, + the plans for round 2 likely not being finalized until after base game, likely being part of why they wouldn’t care).

 

[Guynamednelson]

Not a bad idea to implement Havok physics engine considering Microsoft is already on board.

Brawl already used it. I just don't know how.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Can we not call anyone red herrings ever again and leave that term in Delzethin's videos please.

Okay... didn't mean to offend, I haven't heard of Delzethin but it appears I should not look into them.

 

[ChunkySlugger72]

Brawl already used it. I just don't know how.

(Runs to game shelf to check back of Brawl's case)

Oh yeah, Completely forgot that it did.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Although i love the idea of having Gordon in smash, his chances seems as good as none to me. I brought the idea of how unlikely it would be to have Scorpion or Gordon ever getting added in smash in the last discussion thread, but Scorpion's chances looks better than Gordon's to me, despising Mortal Kombat violence and bad reception in Japan. Someone else brought the fact that Valve actually had one Portal game released on Switch, but the game was developed by ClockStone, and not Valve:

Bridge Constructor Portal - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

If he ever gets in, one of most respected Sakurai's condition would be broken: a character that never had any collaboration with or never have been released in a Nintendo console getting in smash. Sakurai staded multiple times that they'll only add characters from games that have been released at least in one Nintendo console. Let's use Cloud as an exemple: FF7 was never released on a Nintendo console, but Final Fantasy in general had a lot of games in nintendo hardwares, so it was natural to have him added. The same goes to Joker: a Persona game (Q: Shadow of the Labyrinth) was released on the 3DS back in 2014.

Unfortunately, Valve or Half-life have never been anywhere near a Nintendo platform and the same goes to people who think that Master Chief will ever get added in smash: it's very different to have Microsoft reps that have been in Nintendo consoles like Banjo (as Rare) or Steve and a Xbox exclusive character like Master Chief.

I don't think the developer of Portal Bridge Constructor matters so much as the fact that it is a Valve IP. We consider games such as the Hyrule Warriors games or the Capcom Legend of Zelda games Nintendo games because they're centered on Nintendo properties. Thus, Portal Bridge Constructor is a Valve game because it's centered around a Valve property.

I'd argue that's a sufficient technicality for Gordon if we're going to count older Final Fantasy titles or the first Persona Q, but I'd also argue that this rule has lost a significant amount of relevance in the face of characters like Joker and Sephiroth, who were barely associated with Nintendo consoles at the time their negotiations took place. We've shattered fan rules before, and this definitely feels like a rule to be shattered if there was one.

Am I saying Gordon is the likeliest character? No. But I am saying that he's a definite possibility and should not be counted out.

 

[ceterisparibus]

Then its actually impossible.

I mean, is it that much of a stretch to believe that mainline games will get much more focus/marketing than a remake? It doesn't strike me as impossible when most new characters being included in smash come from brand new entries, and the way we missed so many remakes when we had the chance (Shadow Dragon/Majora's mask/Echoes/Omega ruby for smash 4 and WW/Xenoblade DE for ultimate) seems pretty indicative that Nintendo actively wants to prioritize the former.

Especially when the number of characters coming from remakes (which only end up being PT and ZSS) were because Sakurai wanted to include new concepts (having a switching character + wanting more female representation) and came during Brawl, when smash was not as much of a marketing tool as it is now.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Okay... didn't mean to offend, I haven't heard of Delzethin but it appears I should not look into them.

Del's another typical Smash speculation channel who people insist is one of the good ones despite all his videos having the exact same painfully safe "I think we're getting Bandana Dee, a Pokemon and Rex" predictions every time. His most recent video claimed Nintendo characters were likely as they could promote a new game, but said third parties were unlikely because they'd never add a character to promote a new game and called it a red herring despite that not being what that term means.


TLDR: Boringly safe predictions while also a hypocrite

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Aw come on guys. Let not insult Del.

Dude is a nice guy at the end of the day.

 

[A.G.L.]

I suppose in this case Brazil would be Discord but whatever

Hello everyone!

It's been a while, huh? Never really thought I'd come back here (or that we'd ever get a new spec thread), but here I am. And just in time to break up speculation on an incredibly dumb topic (I honestly can't believe we're back on Byleth—people really just gotta accept that Byleth is in the game because Nintendo wanted them to be and not for any other inane, conspiratorial reason).

Anyways, I've been chilling and casually speculating in Discord for the past couple of months, and it's been really nice. I don't have much time to post on forums nowadays given my personal life and immense backlog—and to be honest my relationship with speculation in the past was rather unhealthy, which is why I left. However, right now I find myself I'm in lull with my work and a flash of inspiration to write a long-form speculation piece for old time's sake.

Which is why, returning for one night only, tehponycorn presents:

Spoiler: Essay

The Case for Gordon Freeman

Spoiler: Acknowledgements

• As always, I'll check my bias at the door—I don't have any. The closest I've ever gotten to touching Half-Life personally is a couple of games of CS:GO and TF2 I played literal years ago, as well as the countless Half-Life 3 jokes online (as a Kingdom Hearts fan, I can sympathize).
• I'd like to thank everyone over on the Discord for providing support and encouragement for this piece. I probably wouldn't be posting this if y'all hadn't encouraged me to do so. @Luigi The President first put this idea in my head, so credit to her where it's due.
• I'd specifically like to thank Wunderwaft for helping me refine my points and providing some additional sources to strengthen my arguments. He's the owner of the Gordon Freeman thread, so if you find yourself convinced by my argument and want to support the character, feel free to head on over there and add yourself to the list of supporters (such as myself)!
• Finally like to thank @NonSpecificGuy for unbanning my account lol. Don't worry I didn't break any rules I just didn't trust myself to actually leave back when I left.

Spoiler: Introduction

Since my departure in September, Smash Speculation has been turned on its head with the reveals of Steve Minecraft and Sephiroth. Both shattered fan expectations and established new precedents, showing us that the criteria with which we as speculators judged the likelihood of characters is, at best, faulty, and, at worst, is completely invalid. It feels like the sky is the limit, and if you were to ask me who I thought was coming next I wouldn't know what to tell you.

While Steve and Sephiroth are both monumental reveals in of themselves, I feel like there's still room for another bombshell reveal. It's clear that Sakurai and Nintendo aren't pulling any punches this time around, and returning to the idea of Smash Bros Ultimate "is a celebration of gaming" that Sakurai mentioned in the Byleth Presentation, it's feasible to think that they're going for broke and pulling in the biggest icons they can grab. At this point I wouldn't rule out anyone, including previously thought "impossible" characters such as Gordon Freeman, who I'll be arguing for in this essay.

I'll start by discussing Valve, Steam, and the nature of PC gaming in Japan, specifically mentioning the rise of Steam as a PC gaming platform in Japan. Next, I'll detail the relationship between Nintendo and Valve and dismissing the notion that the two have no business relationship or are enemies of one another. I'll then conclude by talking about the Half-Life series, its influential nature within the realm of PC gaming, its history and future, and the respect and acclaim it receives from Japanese companies and developers.

Spoiler: On Valve

I don't think Valve needs any sort of major introduction. They're quite literally the largest and most influential PC gaming company, not only because of their beloved franchises (and inability to count to 3 when it comes to sequels), but because of their digital video game distribution platform, Steam. Steam is by far the most common way of acquiring and playing PC games, with its share only just now being encroached upon by competitors such as Epic Games and GOG. Regardless, Steam consistently pulls in massive numbers of users. In August 2017 Valve reported that Steam saw 67 million monthly active players and 33 million daily active players, as well as 27 million first-time purchasers since January 2016–all of which are significant indicators of size and growth. In January 2018 they set a new concurrent user record with 18.5 million concurrent users, a record which has been beaten twice and now sits at 24.7 million concurrent users as of December 2020. Valve can reasonably be credited for the rise of PC Gaming itself through the development and promotion of their Steam platform, which shows in their ubiquity in the field and their massive userbase.

Also of note is Steam's prominence in Eastern markets. While not as prominent as in American or European markets, in 2017 Asian markets made up 17% of total Steam sales–not an insignificant number. Indeed, PC gaming is on the rise in Japan. A 2018 Famitsu report estimated that there were 15 million PC gamers compared 23 million console players in 2017, and a BCN Retail report from around the same time found an 80% increase in gaming PC sales at one store location compared to the previous year. Another indicator of the growth of PC gaming in Japan would be the adoption of Steam as a platform with which to release major Japanese titles. Companies such as Sega, Square Enix, Capcom, and Bandai-Namco among others, smelling the large amounts of money, have made it a habit to release their major titles on Steam. While primarily intended for abroad markets, this acknowledgement lends validity to PC gaming domestically as well. While not as significant as other means of gaming, PC gaming is becoming increasingly prevalent in Japan–not counting the fact that many prominent game developers, such as Sakurai, acknowledged PC gaming before its growth. But I shouldn't get ahead of myself—I'll come back to this point.

"but tehponycorn!!1!" you say, "Nintendo and Valve are sworn enemies and have a blood rivalry going back decades! No way would they work together on Smash!!"

to which I say,
View attachment 296727

While it is true that Gabe Newell is on the record discussing Valve's jealousy of Nintendo, taking a look at the full quote provides a different picture:


Valve doesn't resent Nintendo or anything like that. Instead, they respect Nintendo's capability to model new hardware and software simultaneously among other abilities. Looking closer into the relationship between Nintendo and Valve, it's clear that the two share a mutual respect for one another, and it's less that they hate each other and more that things have never lined up right for them to work together.

For one, there's a Portal game on the eShop right now. While not developed by Valve, they're clearly okay releasing games on Nintendo hardware—I'd also argue that this is the technicality Gordon needs to meet the "must appear on a Nintendo console to be in Smash" rule, but the lineup of DLC we've gotten has broken fanrule after fanrule, and the criteria for this rule continues to be stretched further and further that I doubt it even matters at this point, but I digress. We also know that Gabe Newell met with Nintendo executives around 2011-2012 to discuss a joint business venture that, unfortunately, did not work out. You'd think the trail ends there, but it doesn't. Thanks to a confirmed source code leak that included internal company communications, we know that Nintendo reached out to Valve themselves in early 2016, offering 6 figures for an exclusive Half-Life game on the Switch, which would've supposedly been named Half-Life Tactics. While the pastebin of the leak has, unfortunately, been taken down, Wunderwaft managed to post the most important parts in the Gordon Freeman thread. I'll only be quoting the most important parts below, so please head over there if you'd like to read more:



Unfortunately, said project was canceled for an unknown reason, though it is commonly speculated that Valve was afraid of the negative reception of the first Half-Life release in years being a Nintendo exclusive.

I think the most important thing to take away from the above leak is that Nintendo knows the value of the Half Life series. Just as we know Nintendo paid money for Monster Hunter Rise to be a timed exclusive, they would've paid money for an exclusive Half-Life game. This is especially important when we consider negotiations for Smash Bros. are known to have occurred over the span of years, such as in the case of Steve, whose negotiations go back to at least 2017. If we further revisit the Dropped Deals leak (which @SharkLord posted a very nice summary of) posted shortly after Ultimate's release date, it becomes feasible to think that Nintendo, knowing the value of the Half-Life series, negotiated for Gordon as Smash DLC but ended up putting it on the backburner as the result of the exclusive deal falling through. If they're revisiting previous negotiations, it's further feasible that they would return to their negotiations for Gordon regardless of any deal given the notoriety of the Half-Life series and its recent resurgence (which is, again, a point I'll talk about later). Of course, negotiations could have also taken place at a later time unrelated to the exclusive deal entirely.

Tying into this, Gabe Newell is also on the record saying that Valve would collaborate with Nintendo on anything Smash related. Similar to how Phil Spencer championed Banjo & Kazooie (and probably Steve behind the scenes), Gabe Newell would presumably champion any Valve content in Smash Bros., including Gordon Freeman as a playable character.

So, Nintendo and Valve clearly recognize each other's value and have no problems working together. Rather than any sort of animosity, it is merely the result of unfortunate luck that the two have never worked together in any major way. A pathway for Gordon to be a playable character in Smash Bros. exists thanks to Nintendo's recognition of the significant value of the Half-Life series and Gabe Newell's openness to include Valve content in Smash Bros.

Spoiler: On Half-Life

Similar to Valve and Steam, I don't think Half-Life needs much introduction. It's one of the most influential video games of all time. The Source Engine that Valve created just for Half Life 2 was used to create countless other games (Counter Strike, Team Fortress, G-Mod, etc.), and the series has retained a significant fanbase despite with a decade of silence from Valve (no, we are not talking about Hunt Down the Freeman). There's a very enlightening feature-length documentary on the two aforementioned topics that I'd suggest you check out if you want to learn more about the series.

I think it's kind of mandatory that I provide some sales figures to show the series' popularity in this piece, so here's the paragraph in which I do so. As of December 2008, the series had sold a combined 28.1 million units between games and expansions (9.3 m from Half-Life 1, 9.5 m from Half-Life 2, and 9.3 from expansions). The Orange Box, a pack of Valve games containing Half-Life 2, had sold 3 million units by that time as well. By February 2011, Half-Life 2 had independently sold 12 million copies. Given the amount of time that's passed since these reports, these numbers have surely grown much higher since then. Half-Life Alyx, the most recent release in the series has seemingly surpassed 2 million units sold as of December 2020, and, as of May 2020, had brought in nearly 1 million users to Steam in a record gain. For a VR exclusive release this is incredibly impressive, with it even managing to match Beat Saber–arguably the most popular VR game–in concurrent users on its release day.

While no real data exists to show how the Half-Life series has fared in Japan, there is evidence to suggest that the series holds acclaim among Japanese game developers. To start, Gordon Freeman has received cameos in prominent Japanese releases, such as Phantasy Star Online 2 (Sega), Death Stranding (Kojima Productions), and Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix) (the Half-Life team at Valve even sent FFXV's Community Director a Head Crab hat for the announcement of this).

There's also the incredibly curious case of the Half-Life 2 Japan-exclusive arcade release, which was pretty much the entire game but in arcade form. When asked about why Half-Life 2 was brought to Japan in this way Takuma Hanagata. a developer of the machine, had this to say:


For a dominantly Western-favored series, Half-Life is appreciated a surprising amount if the nods and attempts to show it off to Japanese video game players is any indication.

Most notably, Sakurai wrote about Half-Life 2 in a 2004 Famitsu column of his, saying:


In a later interview on the article, Sakurai defended the ability of players to act freely during cutscenes and said that the game had a "Nintendo vibe" to it. While I would encourage readers to take any argument that cites a Sakurai article with a healthy amount of salt, it's clear in this case that Sakurai holds the Half-Life series in high regard. I would even go so far as to argue that Sakurai would choose to add Gordon Freeman to Smash if presented with him because of this.

Finally, I'd like to address the longevity of the series, since it seems that most of our DLC characters so far cross-promote another game, be it on Nintendo consoles (Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Editiontm) or on competing hardware (Persona 5 Royal, Final Fantasy 7 Remake). While the series was dormant for over a decade, in an announcement about Half Life Alyx, Gabe Newell said that "Everyone at Valve is excited to be returning to the world of Half-Life." A multimedia documentary about the making of Half-Life Alyx also revealed information about at least 3 Half-Life projects that were in development but were, unfortunately, canceled, showing that despite the 12 years of silence attempts were made from within Valve to release new games in the series. If only Portal could get the same treatment.

It's clear that Half-Life is not only an important series for Valve, but it's also one that they will continue to revisit in the future. If approached to negotiate for a character in Smash, Valve would surely put Half-Life on the table as including a Half-Life character in Smash Bros. would carry the most significant promotional value for both Nintendo and Valve.

Spoiler: Conclusion

In conclusion, the relationship between Nintendo and Valve is not as bad as fans make it out to be, with the two companies sharing a mutual respect and understanding of each other's value. Valve is an incredibly influential company within the sphere of PC gaming, which is currently experiencing massive growth in the Japanese market. Half-Life as a series has not only defined an entire generation of PC gaming, but is also highly respected among prominent Japanese video game developers and companies—including Sakurai and Nintendo. Provided this alongside Gabe Newell's statements on including Valve properties in Smash Bros., it is not as far a reach as one would think for Gordon Freeman to be one of our next DLC fighters. At the very least, I would consider him a definite likelihood and would not underestimate his chances.

Spoiler: Postscript

It's kind of weird being back. I'm sure some people might think my former goodbyes are now cheapened, but I stand by what I said back then. My life only continues to get busy (I'm starting work on my undergrad thesis and two other research initiatives next semester) and I'm actually making progress on my backlog of games (I'm playing Devil May Cry 3 on Switch right now and it's really fun). I might stick around for a bit to answer any questions on this essay or give my thoughts on current speculation, but otherwise I wanted to just pop in, drop an essay, and vanish into the ether for an indiscriminate amount of time again.

Except, before I do so, let it be known that I wrote about both Steve and Sephiroth and it's a shame I was not here to flex my 500 IQ speculation. ;(

Anyways, I hope everyone's staying healthy and safe, and happy holidays to you all! I suppose in a way this is an early Christmas present, so I sincerely hope you enjoyed reading!

A legend has graced us with his presence!

Im not sure on Gordon Freeman considering the purgatory Half Life 3 is in. That said he would definitely be an interesting character, so im all for it.



As for Chun-Li does anyone else think it is really strange they chose Guile as the assist trophy over her? It makes more sense to choose Chun-Li as she is more iconic. So possibly I can see Capcom choosing to save her for later. It does seem like whatever crossover game Ryu is in, Chun-Li follows him.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Aw come on guys. Let not insult Del.

Dude is a nice guy at the end of the day.

I'm not attacking his personality. I'm criticizing his videos, especially as this defence was always used to go "Noooo my favourite Smash speculation youtuber doesn't clickbait he's so nice and funny" in the past

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Del's another typical Smash speculation channel who people insist is one of the good ones despite all his videos having the exact same painfully safe "I think we're getting Bandana Dee, a Pokemon and Rex" predictions every time. His most recent video claimed Nintendo characters were likely as they could promote a new game, but said third parties were unlikely because they'd never add a character to promote a new game and called it a red herring despite that not being what that term means.


TLDR: Boringly safe predictions while also a hypocrite

I'm pretty sure the red herring thing was about people thinking that characters who were discussed a lot would be more likely because they are discussed a lot, and not about a new game being promoted. Still the wrong use, but at least it wasn't a bad argument. He also tends to think first party characters and third party characters play by different rules, so I don't think it was that hypocritical in context. That said, I would agree if you said he was biased toward certain characters and doesn't change things up much even when new characters come out.

He basically ignores leaks, so a lot of the characters we discuss here wouldn't fly in his book.

 

[epicmartin7]

Hi! Just wanted to come back in and say I did some more math stuffs. However, this time, I used math to gauge Fighter 9's potential background colors. This is the results I got.

Spoiler: All Potential Colors for Fighter 9 Using Math

If you're wondering how I did it, here's an explanation.

Spoiler: Explanation

• I ratioed the RGB values of each DLC character background. The DLC character that releases after another has its value in the numerator, while the predecessor is in the denominator. So, essentially DLC2/DLC1.
• I then document the current average, along with all the past averages.
• This is important, because I take all the past averages, including the current one, and make it my Y-axis. The X-axis then represents the number of terms being divided in that specific average.
• I then map a function to it that is the closest match to the data.
• From there, my goal is to figure out how that average might evolve over time using the function.
• I then plug that average into the average equation I want to use, and work backwards to find my values.

If you want some screenshots from my setup, here you go!

Spoiler: Screenshots from Desmos

So... basically, what does this mean? Well, statistically speaking, it seems like Fighter 9 could be trending towards a Green or Blue background, based on past data.

In terms of character speculation though? I'd say... not much since this will most likely be wrong I imagine. But, hey, this was fun to do! Let me know what you guys think!

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I'm pretty sure the red herring thing was about people thinking that characters who were discussed a lot would be more likely because they are discussed a lot, and not about a new game being promoted. Still the wrong use, but at least it wasn't a bad argument. He also tends to think first party characters and third party characters play by different rules, so I don't think it was that hypocritical in context. That said, I would agree if you said he was biased toward certain characters and doesn't change things up much even when new characters come out.

He basically ignores leaks, so a lot of the characters we discuss here wouldn't fly in his book.

I can see what you mean on that front but it's hardly the first time he'd be hypocritical, not to mention that it smells like bull**** to say "This character I don't like gets talked about a lot and thus is unlikely. The characters I keep saying are likely are constantly talked about. This makes them super likely. Ignoring leaks and focusing entirely on your own speculation would be cool if it wasn't literally the same characters every single time and if he doesn't downplay characters he doesn't like, but he's done that for the base roster, so much so to the point he whined that Incineroar didn't make any sense to include over Lycanroc, his most wanted, and that he's still blatantly downplaying popular characters in favour of his favourites

 

[Shroob]

Hi! Just wanted to come back in and say I did some more math stuffs. However, this time, I used math to gauge Fighter 9's potential background colors. This is the results I got.

Spoiler: All Potential Colors for Fighter 9 Using Math

View attachment 296740

If you're wondering how I did it, here's an explanation.

Spoiler: Explanation

• I ratioed the RGB values of each DLC character background. The DLC character that releases after another has its value in the numerator, while the predecessor is in the denominator. So, essentially DLC2/DLC1.
• I then document the current average, along with all the past averages.
• This is important, because I take all the past averages, including the current one, and make it my Y-axis. The X-axis then represents the number of terms being divided in that specific average.
• I then map a function to it that is the closest match to the data.
• From there, my goal is to figure out how that average might evolve over time using the function.
• I then plug that average into the average equation I want to use, and work backwards to find my values.

If you want some screenshots from my setup, here you go!

Spoiler: Screenshots from Desmos

View attachment 296741
View attachment 296742
View attachment 296743

So... basically, what does this mean? Well, statistically speaking, it seems like Fighter 9 could be trending towards a Green or Blue background, based on past data.

In terms of character speculation though? I'd say... not much since this will most likely be wrong I imagine. But, hey, this was fun to do! Let me know what you guys think!

Blue
Which is Chun Li's primary color

Ah ye it's habbenin' m8s

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Hi! Just wanted to come back in and say I did some more math stuffs. However, this time, I used math to gauge Fighter 9's potential background colors. This is the results I got.

Spoiler: All Potential Colors for Fighter 9 Using Math

View attachment 296740

If you're wondering how I did it, here's an explanation.

Spoiler: Explanation

• I ratioed the RGB values of each DLC character background. The DLC character that releases after another has its value in the numerator, while the predecessor is in the denominator. So, essentially DLC2/DLC1.
• I then document the current average, along with all the past averages.
• This is important, because I take all the past averages, including the current one, and make it my Y-axis. The X-axis then represents the number of terms being divided in that specific average.
• I then map a function to it that is the closest match to the data.
• From there, my goal is to figure out how that average might evolve over time using the function.
• I then plug that average into the average equation I want to use, and work backwards to find my values.

If you want some screenshots from my setup, here you go!

Spoiler: Screenshots from Desmos

View attachment 296741
View attachment 296742
View attachment 296743

So... basically, what does this mean? Well, statistically speaking, it seems like Fighter 9 could be trending towards a Green or Blue background, based on past data.

In terms of character speculation though? I'd say... not much since this will most likely be wrong I imagine. But, hey, this was fun to do! Let me know what you guys think!

Well I guess it’s confirmed....Frogger will join the fight!

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Since we all know the best commercials have dogs in them, I'm going to shill Yuri Lowell, not by talking about Yuri, but about his pupper Repede:

Yup, he's got a pipe. It allegedly belonged to his previous owner and he never leaves without it. Also, similar to Sif or Zacian, he has a knife he can use to attack his opponents. Did I mention he's a playable character? I didn't, but he is. He's got a real independent streak and decides what he wants to do all on his own.

With a doggo this grand, Yuri can't be that bad. (Morally he actually is pretty bad in some areas, but we'll save that for another day).

Yuri for Smash.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Del's another typical Smash speculation channel who people insist is one of the good ones despite all his videos having the exact same painfully safe "I think we're getting Bandana Dee, a Pokemon and Rex" predictions every time. His most recent video claimed Nintendo characters were likely as they could promote a new game, but said third parties were unlikely because they'd never add a character to promote a new game and called it a red herring despite that not being what that term means.


TLDR: Boringly safe predictions while also a hypocrite

Not to rag on Delz too much, since he is one of my favorite speculators and content creators in general, but the fact his videos without fail start with a Herodotean soliloquy about the folly of the Smash fanbase before delivering the blandest predictions known to man will always have a special kind of irony to it.

 

[N3ON]

I always got on well with Del when he was more active here but I do have to agree that his picks are obscenely safe and therefore often wrong.

 

[ZephyrZ]

Since we all know the best commercials have dogs in them, I'm going to shill Yuri Lowell, not by talking about Yuri, but about his pupper Repede:
View attachment 296744
Yup, he's got a pipe. It allegedly belonged to his previous owner and he never leaves without it. Also, similar to Sif or Zacian, he has a knife he can use to attack his opponents. Did I mention he's a playable character? I didn't, but he is. He's got a real independent streak and decides what he wants to do all on his own.

With a doggo this grand, Yuri can't be that bad. (Morally he actually is pretty bad in some areas, but we'll save that for another day).

Yuri for Smash.

Screw Yuri, you just sold me on Repede in Smash.

 

[Idon]

Look, I take offense with the fact Delzethin called Dante a red herring...

clearly his hair is white.