Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Scoliosis Jones]

Well, if we've discussed Chun-Li for two days straight, let's talk the other side of the coin.

So, about Tales of...

It’s Lloyd or Yuri. Next

 

[cashregister9]

Well, if we've discussed Chun-Li for two days straight, let's talk the other side of the coin.

So, about Tales of...

Tales Of Vesperia has a character named Estelle...

Tales sounds a lot like Trails

Estelle Bright Confirm11!!!111

 

[Opossum]

Wait hold up.

If I wanted a character who became an Assist Trophy, why would I be anything other than thrilled if they then became playable as DLC?

If I got Waluigi or Starfy or Takamaru or Tiki or Shovel Knight or Dillon or Alucard or (...) I wouldn't be angry about it. That makes no sense.

 

[SharkLord]

Tales Of Vesperia has a character named Estelle...

Tales sounds a lot like Trails

Estelle Bright Confirm11!!!111

And the Crossbell Arc also has a Lloyd.

...Are you sure these are separate series?

 

[Shroob]

It’s less that the discussion is “Byleth bad” but that the rumors typically are rooted in “Byleth bad” and the willingness to believe that Byleth replaced a different character is usually rooted in, “Byleth and Fire Emblem bad”.

We had great discussion for like 2 days, and now it’s gone. A rather uninteresting conversation.

Might play Street Fighter V in a few days to try out some Chun-Li. Don’t think I played her much so it might be cool to learn more about her.

Well, that's just kinda what I've been saying.

There's nothing really left to talk about in regards to Chun Leak. There's nothing really able to confirm or deny it aside from the passage of time, so when we basically get to the point where "No, Chun Li isn't cool, and she's a cop so she's inherently extra not cool!" like what happened earlier today, we've about plateau'd in terms of discussion and can only just.... wait.

It's a leak with nothing really to disprove it, but nothing really to prove it either. March definitely seems like a Capcom primetime month between Rise and SF2's 30th anni, but all we can do is.... wait.

 

[ahemtoday]

I've always though they should make a crossover between the Tales and Mana series, if only so they can call it "Tales of Mana".

 

[SharkLord]

Well, that's just kinda what I've been saying.

There's nothing really left to talk about in regards to Chun Leak. There's nothing really able to confirm or deny it aside from the passage of time, so when we basically get to the point where "No, Chun Li isn't cool, and she's a cop so she's inherently extra not cool!" like what happened earlier today, we've about plateau'd in terms of discussion and can only just.... wait.

It's a leak with nothing really to disprove it, but nothing really to prove it either. March definitely seems like a Capcom primetime month between Rise and SF2's 30th anni, but all we can do is.... wait.

I mean, we do have the Tales series left...

Quick, someone whip up a moveset for a Tales character so we can drum up hype. Someone, anyone, just keep the conversation going.

 

[Shroob]

I mean, we do have the Tales series left...

Quick, someone whip up a moveset for a Tales character so we can drum up hype. Someone, anyone, just keep the conversation going.

........bold of you to assume anyone here even knows anything about Tales of aside from knowing the names Lloyd, Yuri and Velvet.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I've always though they should make a crossover between the Tales and Mana series, if only so they can call it "Tales of Mana".

And if they did a crossover with the Trials series, they could call it Trials of Mana!

...

Wait.

 

[SharkLord]

And if they did a crossover with the Trials series, they could call it Trials of Mana!

...

Wait.

Actually it's the Trails series.

Yeah, I can see why some people still call it Kiseki.

 

[JamesDNaux]

Wait hold up.

If I wanted a character who became an Assist Trophy, why would I be anything other than thrilled if they then became playable as DLC?

If I got Waluigi or Starfy or Takamaru or Tiki or Shovel Knight or Dillon or Alucard or (...) I wouldn't be angry about it. That makes no sense.

How dare they add a character I wanted, I'm going to demand a refund, boycott the game, and forever curse Sakurai's name.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Actually it's the Trails series.

Yeah, I can see why some people still call it Kiseki.

Or as I like to call it
The Trails of the Kiseki Heroes


Don't kill me

 

[PLATINUM7]

Actually it's the Trails series.

Yeah, I can see why some people still call it Kiseki.

Pretty sure they were talking about the motorcycle game.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Actually it's the Trails series.

Pretty sure they were talking about the motorcycle game.

Nope, I switched the vowels around. Every single time I read it.

When you try your best but you don't succeeeeeeeeeed

 

[cashregister9]

Pretty sure they were talking about the motorcycle game.

Yeah Trials Of Cold Steel

 

[PLATINUM7]

Nope, I switched the vowels around. Every single time I read it.

When you try your best but you don't succeeeeeeeeeed

Let me rephrase that:

You should have been talking about the motorcycle game.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Yeah Trials Of Cold Steel

Wait, so I didn't misread that title?

 

[cashregister9]

Wait, so I didn't misread that title?

No it is Trails I just spelled it wrong to tie in with the Motorcycle game. Sorry if I confused you

 

[Wunderwaft]

Wait, so I didn't misread that title?

It is called 英雄伝説 閃の軌跡

 

[Ivander]

........bold of you to assume anyone here even knows anything about Tales of aside from knowing the names Lloyd, Yuri and Velvet.

I do know about most of the early Tales series and a bit of Graces and Xillia. Not so much Berseria and forward. But alongside Symphonia and Vesperia, I do know about Phantasia, Destiny 1 & 2, Eternia, Rebirth, Legendia, Abyss, Hearts and Xillia.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I suppose in this case Brazil would be Discord but whatever

Hello everyone!

It's been a while, huh? Never really thought I'd come back here (or that we'd ever get a new spec thread), but here I am. And just in time to break up speculation on an incredibly dumb topic (I honestly can't believe we're back on Byleth—people really just gotta accept that Byleth is in the game because Nintendo wanted them to be and not for any other inane, conspiratorial reason).

Anyways, I've been chilling and casually speculating in Discord for the past couple of months, and it's been really nice. I don't have much time to post on forums nowadays given my personal life and immense backlog—and to be honest my relationship with speculation in the past was rather unhealthy, which is why I left. However, right now I find myself I'm in lull with my work and a flash of inspiration to write a long-form speculation piece for old time's sake.

Which is why, returning for one night only, tehponycorn presents:

Spoiler: Essay

The Case for Gordon Freeman

Spoiler: Acknowledgements

• As always, I'll check my bias at the door—I don't have any. The closest I've ever gotten to touching Half-Life personally is a couple of games of CS:GO and TF2 I played literal years ago, as well as the countless Half-Life 3 jokes online (as a Kingdom Hearts fan, I can sympathize).
• I'd like to thank everyone over on the Discord for providing support and encouragement for this piece. I probably wouldn't be posting this if y'all hadn't encouraged me to do so. Luigi The President first put this idea in my head, so credit to her where it's due.
• I'd specifically like to thank Wunderwaft for helping me refine my points and providing some additional sources to strengthen my arguments. He's the owner of the Gordon Freeman thread, so if you find yourself convinced by my argument and want to support the character, feel free to head on over there and add yourself to the list of supporters (such as myself)!
• Finally like to thank NonSpecificGuy for unbanning my account lol. Don't worry I didn't break any rules I just didn't trust myself to actually leave back when I left.

Spoiler: Introduction

Since my departure in September, Smash Speculation has been turned on its head with the reveals of Steve Minecraft and Sephiroth. Both shattered fan expectations and established new precedents, showing us that the criteria with which we as speculators judged the likelihood of characters is, at best, faulty, and, at worst, is completely invalid. It feels like the sky is the limit, and if you were to ask me who I thought was coming next I wouldn't know what to tell you.

While Steve and Sephiroth are both monumental reveals in of themselves, I feel like there's still room for another bombshell reveal. It's clear that Sakurai and Nintendo aren't pulling any punches this time around, and returning to the idea of Smash Bros Ultimate "is a celebration of gaming" that Sakurai mentioned in the Byleth Presentation, it's feasible to think that they're going for broke and pulling in the biggest icons they can grab. At this point I wouldn't rule out anyone, including previously thought "impossible" characters such as Gordon Freeman, who I'll be arguing for in this essay.

I'll start by discussing Valve, Steam, and the nature of PC gaming in Japan, specifically mentioning the rise of Steam as a PC gaming platform in Japan. Next, I'll detail the relationship between Nintendo and Valve and dismissing the notion that the two have no business relationship or are enemies of one another. I'll then conclude by talking about the Half-Life series, its influential nature within the realm of PC gaming, its history and future, and the respect and acclaim it receives from Japanese companies and developers.

Spoiler: On Valve

I don't think Valve needs any sort of major introduction. They're quite literally the largest and most influential PC gaming company, not only because of their beloved franchises (and inability to count to 3 when it comes to sequels), but because of their digital video game distribution platform, Steam. Steam is by far the most common way of acquiring and playing PC games, with its share only just now being encroached upon by competitors such as Epic Games and GOG. Regardless, Steam consistently pulls in massive numbers of users. In August 2017 Valve reported that Steam saw 67 million monthly active players and 33 million daily active players, as well as 27 million first-time purchasers since January 2016–all of which are significant indicators of size and growth. In January 2018 they set a new concurrent user record with 18.5 million concurrent users, a record which has been beaten twice and now sits at 24.7 million concurrent users as of December 2020. Valve can reasonably be credited for the rise of PC Gaming itself through the development and promotion of their Steam platform, which shows in their ubiquity in the field and their massive userbase.

Also of note is Steam's prominence in Eastern markets. While not as prominent as in American or European markets, in 2017 Asian markets made up 17% of total Steam sales–not an insignificant number. Indeed, PC gaming is on the rise in Japan. A 2018 Famitsu report estimated that there were 15 million PC gamers compared 23 million console players in 2017, and a BCN Retail report from around the same time found an 80% increase in gaming PC sales at one store location compared to the previous year. Another indicator of the growth of PC gaming in Japan would be the adoption of Steam as a platform with which to release major Japanese titles. Companies such as Sega, Square Enix, Capcom, and Bandai-Namco among others, smelling the large amounts of money, have made it a habit to release their major titles on Steam. While primarily intended for abroad markets, this acknowledgement lends validity to PC gaming domestically as well. While not as significant as other means of gaming, PC gaming is becoming increasingly prevalent in Japan–not counting the fact that many prominent game developers, such as Sakurai, acknowledged PC gaming before its growth. But I shouldn't get ahead of myself—I'll come back to this point.

"but tehponycorn!!1!" you say, "Nintendo and Valve are sworn enemies and have a blood rivalry going back decades! No way would they work together on Smash!!"

to which I say,


While it is true that Gabe Newell is on the record discussing Valve's jealousy of Nintendo, taking a look at the full quote provides a different picture:

We’ve always been a little bit jealous of companies like Nintendo. When Miyamoto is sitting down and thinking about the next version of Zelda or Mario, he’s thinking what is the controller going to look like, what sort of graphics and other capabilities. He can introduce new capabilities like motion input because he controls both of those things. And he can make the hardware look as good as possible because he’s designing the software at the same time that’s really going to take advantage of it. So that is something we’ve been jealous of, and that’s something that you’ll see us taking advantage of subsequently.

Valve doesn't resent Nintendo or anything like that. Instead, they respect Nintendo's capability to model new hardware and software simultaneously among other abilities. Looking closer into the relationship between Nintendo and Valve, it's clear that the two share a mutual respect for one another, and it's less that they hate each other and more that things have never lined up right for them to work together.

For one, there's a Portal game on the eShop right now. While not developed by Valve, they're clearly okay releasing games on Nintendo hardware—I'd also argue that this is the technicality Gordon needs to meet the "must appear on a Nintendo console to be in Smash" rule, but the lineup of DLC we've gotten has broken fanrule after fanrule, and the criteria for this rule continues to be stretched further and further that I doubt it even matters at this point, but I digress. We also know that Gabe Newell met with Nintendo executives around 2011-2012 to discuss a joint business venture that, unfortunately, did not work out. You'd think the trail ends there, but it doesn't. Thanks to a confirmed source code leak that included internal company communications, we know that Nintendo reached out to Valve themselves in early 2016, offering 6 figures for an exclusive Half-Life game on the Switch, which would've supposedly been named Half-Life Tactics. While the pastebin of the leak has, unfortunately, been taken down, Wunderwaft managed to post the most important parts in the Gordon Freeman thread. I'll only be quoting the most important parts below, so please head over there if you'd like to read more:

[3:18:12 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: just got out of the nintendo meeting
[3:18:18 PM] Tyler McVicker: Cool
[3:18:33 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: they offered 6 figures for an exclusive
[3:18:47 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: we're thinking about it
...
[3:42:29 PM] Tyler McVicker: Wow they really want HL3
[3:42:45 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: if we do decide to, they would offer between 150k to 400k depending on the franchise
[3:42:56 PM] Tyler McVicker: Haha, they actually do want HL
[3:43:05 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: they specifically asked for an exclusive HL spinoff

Unfortunately, said project was canceled for an unknown reason, though it is commonly speculated that Valve was afraid of the negative reception of the first Half-Life release in years being a Nintendo exclusive.

I think the most important thing to take away from the above leak is that Nintendo knows the value of the Half Life series. Just as we know Nintendo paid money for Monster Hunter Rise to be a timed exclusive, they would've paid money for an exclusive Half-Life game. This is especially important when we consider negotiations for Smash Bros. are known to have occurred over the span of years, such as in the case of Steve, whose negotiations go back to at least 2017. If we further revisit the Dropped Deals leak (which SharkLord posted a very nice summary of) posted shortly after Ultimate's release date, it becomes feasible to think that Nintendo, knowing the value of the Half-Life series, negotiated for Gordon as Smash DLC but ended up putting it on the backburner as the result of the exclusive deal falling through. If they're revisiting previous negotiations, it's further feasible that they would return to their negotiations for Gordon regardless of any deal given the notoriety of the Half-Life series and its recent resurgence (which is, again, a point I'll talk about later). Of course, negotiations could have also taken place at a later time unrelated to the exclusive deal entirely.

Tying into this, Gabe Newell is also on the record saying that Valve would collaborate with Nintendo on anything Smash related. Similar to how Phil Spencer championed Banjo & Kazooie (and probably Steve behind the scenes), Gabe Newell would presumably champion any Valve content in Smash Bros., including Gordon Freeman as a playable character.

So, Nintendo and Valve clearly recognize each other's value and have no problems working together. Rather than any sort of animosity, it is merely the result of unfortunate luck that the two have never worked together in any major way. A pathway for Gordon to be a playable character in Smash Bros. exists thanks to Nintendo's recognition of the significant value of the Half-Life series and Gabe Newell's openness to include Valve content in Smash Bros.

Spoiler: On Half-Life

Similar to Valve and Steam, I don't think Half-Life needs much introduction. It's one of the most influential video games of all time. The Source Engine that Valve created just for Half Life 2 was used to create countless other games (Counter Strike, Team Fortress, G-Mod, etc.), and the series has retained a significant fanbase despite with a decade of silence from Valve (no, we are not talking about Hunt Down the Freeman). There's a very enlightening feature-length documentary on the two aforementioned topics that I'd suggest you check out if you want to learn more about the series.

I think it's kind of mandatory that I provide some sales figures to show the series' popularity in this piece, so here's the paragraph in which I do so. As of December 2008, the series had sold a combined 28.1 million units between games and expansions (9.3 m from Half-Life 1, 9.5 m from Half-Life 2, and 9.3 from expansions). The Orange Box, a pack of Valve games containing Half-Life 2, had sold 3 million units by that time as well. By February 2011, Half-Life 2 had independently sold 12 million copies. Given the amount of time that's passed since these reports, these numbers have surely grown much higher since then. Half-Life Alyx, the most recent release in the series has seemingly surpassed 2 million units sold as of December 2020, and, as of May 2020, had brought in nearly 1 million users to Steam in a record gain. For a VR exclusive release this is incredibly impressive, with it even managing to match Beat Saber–arguably the most popular VR game–in concurrent users on its release day.

While no real data exists to show how the Half-Life series has fared in Japan, there is evidence to suggest that the series holds acclaim among Japanese game developers. To start, Gordon Freeman has received cameos in prominent Japanese releases, such as Phantasy Star Online 2 (Sega), Death Stranding (Kojima Productions), and Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix) (the Half-Life team at Valve even sent FFXV's Community Director a Head Crab hat for the announcement of this).

There's also the incredibly curious case of the Half-Life 2 Japan-exclusive arcade release, which was pretty much the entire game but in arcade form. When asked about why Half-Life 2 was brought to Japan in this way Takuma Hanagata. a developer of the machine, had this to say:

At the time, Half-Life was a world-wide hit, but hadn’t really made an impact in Japan, so we [Taito, the arcade company] developed the arcade version with the aim of showing Japanese players how much fun it was.

For a dominantly Western-favored series, Half-Life is appreciated a surprising amount if the nods and attempts to show it off to Japanese video game players is any indication.

Most notably, Sakurai wrote about Half-Life 2 in a 2004 Famitsu column of his, saying:

I’m not one to follow these types of games particularly close but even I’ve been looking forward to Half-Life 2’s launch. This is the kind of game you upgrade your computer and graphics card for so you can really take in the visuals and environments. It’s that good.

I was especially impressed when I started playing Half-Life 2. My jaw hit the floor. I couldn’t look away from my monitor, it looked so good, and it’s great how they implemented the physics system. ‘Was this the next generation of gaming?’ I thought to myself. I couldn’t believe we were going to be getting this high a level of games in the future.

In a later interview on the article, Sakurai defended the ability of players to act freely during cutscenes and said that the game had a "Nintendo vibe" to it. While I would encourage readers to take any argument that cites a Sakurai article with a healthy amount of salt, it's clear in this case that Sakurai holds the Half-Life series in high regard. I would even go so far as to argue that Sakurai would choose to add Gordon Freeman to Smash if presented with him because of this.

Finally, I'd like to address the longevity of the series, since it seems that most of our DLC characters so far cross-promote another game, be it on Nintendo consoles (Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Editiontm) or on competing hardware (Persona 5 Royal, Final Fantasy 7 Remake). While the series was dormant for over a decade, in an announcement about Half Life Alyx, Gabe Newell said that "Everyone at Valve is excited to be returning to the world of Half-Life." A multimedia documentary about the making of Half-Life Alyx also revealed information about at least 3 Half-Life projects that were in development but were, unfortunately, canceled, showing that despite the 12 years of silence attempts were made from within Valve to release new games in the series. If only Portal could get the same treatment.

It's clear that Half-Life is not only an important series for Valve, but it's also one that they will continue to revisit in the future. If approached to negotiate for a character in Smash, Valve would surely put Half-Life on the table as including a Half-Life character in Smash Bros. would carry the most significant promotional value for both Nintendo and Valve.

Spoiler: Conclusion

In conclusion, the relationship between Nintendo and Valve is not as bad as fans make it out to be, with the two companies sharing a mutual respect and understanding of each other's value. Valve is an incredibly influential company within the sphere of PC gaming, which is currently experiencing massive growth in the Japanese market. Half-Life as a series has not only defined an entire generation of PC gaming, but is also highly respected among prominent Japanese video game developers and companies—including Sakurai and Nintendo. Provided this alongside Gabe Newell's statements on including Valve properties in Smash Bros., it is not as far a reach as one would think for Gordon Freeman to be one of our next DLC fighters. At the very least, I would consider him a definite likelihood and would not underestimate his chances.

Spoiler: Postscript

It's kind of weird being back. I'm sure some people might think my former goodbyes are now cheapened, but I stand by what I said back then. My life only continues to get busy (I'm starting work on my undergrad thesis and two other research initiatives next semester) and I'm actually making progress on my backlog of games (I'm playing Devil May Cry 3 on Switch right now and it's really fun). I might stick around for a bit to answer any questions on this essay or give my thoughts on current speculation, but otherwise I wanted to just pop in, drop an essay, and vanish into the ether for an indiscriminate amount of time again.

Except, before I do so, let it be known that I wrote about both Steve and Sephiroth and it's a shame I was not here to flex my 500 IQ speculation. ;(

Anyways, I hope everyone's staying healthy and safe, and happy holidays to you all! I suppose in a way this is an early Christmas present, so I sincerely hope you enjoyed reading!

 

[ZephyrZ]

Something that seems off to me the wrong way about this Byleth/Monster Hunter rumor is that it seems to imply that they take a moveset concept first, and then pick a character to match it. I could see them doing that in the earlier titles maybe but not in Smash 4 or Ultimate.

Most characters these days seem to have move sets totally tailor made for them. Steve doesn't have a moveset revolving around blocks because they wanted to make a character who revolved around blocks, its because Minecraft itself is a game about blocks. Sephiroth doesn't have a long katana because they wanted a character with ridiculous range, he has a long katana because he's hecking Sephiroth.

As with Byleth I feel like the reason he uses the same weapons he does is because they wanted to condense the abilities of the Three Houses lords into one character, and to hopefully deter criticism from him being another sword user (which obviously failed but I digress). I seriously kind of doubt the looked at Monster Hunter and their gargantuan, over the top weapons meant for killing giant creatures then looked at Byleth with much more reasonably sized ones meant for killing people and went "yeah, close enough".

 

[Guynamednelson]

Wait hold up.

If I wanted a character who became an Assist Trophy, why would I be anything other than thrilled if they then became playable as DLC?

If I got Waluigi or Starfy or Takamaru or Tiki or Shovel Knight or Dillon or Alucard or (...) I wouldn't be angry about it. That makes no sense.

me when I get to experience isaac with actual earthbending before i'm 35

 

[Louie G.]

Well, if we've discussed Chun-Li for two days straight, let's talk the other side of the coin.

So, about Tales of...

I think Chun-Li has taken control of the conversation because Lloyd has been discussed as far back as Smash 4, and has always been deemed one of the leading candidates from Namco. I've been saying that Yuri has just as good a shot for a while, because of his role as the most popular protagonist, but I've been met with a good amount of resistance on that from fans of Lloyd. Nowadays I do think Lloyd probably has the best chance if anyone, but even if that 5ch stuff pans out it sounded like they were more of a suggestion than anything that went anywhere.

But yeah, Chun-Li is fresh and new while Tales has been discussed about as much as it can be since DLC began. Maybe they will maybe they won't. Personally with the way Namco costumes have been going I wouldn't put much stock in it myself.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Well, I'm gonna change the topic the one way I can think how: by randomly posting music and hoping we can talk about it in Smash!

Sounds like a plan!

Package it with Hayabusa, Koei! That **** is fire!

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Wait hold up.

If I wanted a character who became an Assist Trophy, why would I be anything other than thrilled if they then became playable as DLC?

If I got Waluigi or Starfy or Takamaru or Tiki or Shovel Knight or Dillon or Alucard or (...) I wouldn't be angry about it. That makes no sense.

You don't consider it likely, therefore you'd actually be disgusted and hate the idea because wanting something but thinking it won't happen is a take far too nuanced for some people

 

[Glory2Snowstar]

Sounds like a plan!

Package it with Hayabusa, Koei! That **** is fire!

I always though that both Earthbound and Punch-Out could have used better musical representation. I’m guessing that Earthbound’s sampling made things difficult from a legal standpoint, and that Punch-Out’s battle themes (for the Wii) being remixes of the same theme maybe rubbed the devs the wrong way.
I just think that Soda Popinski’s theme in Smash would have been perfect and that Earthbound not having many battle themes in Smash at all when half of the tracks from Mother 2 became memes is a big missed opportunity.

 

[Wunderwaft]

I suppose in this case Brazil would be Discord but whatever

Hello everyone!

It's been a while, huh? Never really thought I'd come back here (or that we'd ever get a new spec thread), but here I am. And just in time to break up speculation on an incredibly dumb topic (I honestly can't believe we're back on Byleth—people really just gotta accept that Byleth is in the game because Nintendo wanted them to be and not for any other inane, conspiratorial reason).

Anyways, I've been chilling and casually speculating in Discord for the past couple of months, and it's been really nice. I don't have much time to post on forums nowadays given my personal life and immense backlog—and to be honest my relationship with speculation in the past was rather unhealthy, which is why I left. However, right now I find myself I'm in lull with my work and a flash of inspiration to write a long-form speculation piece for old time's sake.

Which is why, returning for one night only, tehponycorn presents:

Spoiler: Essay

The Case for Gordon Freeman

Spoiler: Acknowledgements

• As always, I'll check my bias at the door—I don't have any. The closest I've ever gotten to touching Half-Life personally is a couple of games of CS:GO and TF2 I played literal years ago, as well as the countless Half-Life 3 jokes online (as a Kingdom Hearts fan, I can sympathize).
• I'd like to thank everyone over on the Discord for providing support and encouragement for this piece. I probably wouldn't be posting this if y'all hadn't encouraged me to do so. Luigi The President first put this idea in my head, so credit to her where it's due.
• I'd specifically like to thank Wunderwaft for helping me refine my points and providing some additional sources to strengthen my arguments. He's the owner of the Gordon Freeman thread, so if you find yourself convinced by my argument and want to support the character, feel free to head on over there and add yourself to the list of supporters (such as myself)!
• Finally like to thank NonSpecificGuy for unbanning my account lol. Don't worry I didn't break any rules I just didn't trust myself to actually leave back when I left.

Spoiler: Introduction

Since my departure in September, Smash Speculation has been turned on its head with the reveals of Steve Minecraft and Sephiroth. Both shattered fan expectations and established new precedents, showing us that the criteria with which we as speculators judged the likelihood of characters is, at best, faulty, and, at worst, is completely invalid. It feels like the sky is the limit, and if you were to ask me who I thought was coming next I wouldn't know what to tell you.

While Steve and Sephiroth are both monumental reveals in of themselves, I feel like there's still room for another bombshell reveal. It's clear that Sakurai and Nintendo aren't pulling any punches this time around, and returning to the idea of Smash Bros Ultimate "is a celebration of gaming" that Sakurai mentioned in the Byleth Presentation, it's feasible to think that they're going for broke and pulling in the biggest icons they can grab. At this point I wouldn't rule out anyone, including previously thought "impossible" characters such as Gordon Freeman, who I'll be arguing for in this essay.

I'll start by discussing Valve, Steam, and the nature of PC gaming in Japan, specifically mentioning the rise of Steam as a PC gaming platform in Japan. Next, I'll detail the relationship between Nintendo and Valve and dismissing the notion that the two have no business relationship or are enemies of one another. I'll then conclude by talking about the Half-Life series, its influential nature within the realm of PC gaming, its history and future, and the respect and acclaim it receives from Japanese companies and developers.

Spoiler: On Valve

I don't think Valve needs any sort of major introduction. They're quite literally the largest and most influential PC gaming company, not only because of their beloved franchises (and inability to count to 3 when it comes to sequels), but because of their digital video game distribution platform, Steam. Steam is by far the most common way of acquiring and playing PC games, with its share only just now being encroached upon by competitors such as Epic Games and GOG. Regardless, Steam consistently pulls in massive numbers of users. In August 2017 Valve reported that Steam saw 67 million monthly active players and 33 million daily active players, as well as 27 million first-time purchasers since January 2016–all of which are significant indicators of size and growth. In January 2018 they set a new concurrent user record with 18.5 million concurrent users, a record which has been beaten twice and now sits at 24.7 million concurrent users as of December 2020. Valve can reasonably be credited for the rise of PC Gaming itself through the development and promotion of their Steam platform, which shows in their ubiquity in the field and their massive userbase.

Also of note is Steam's prominence in Eastern markets. While not as prominent as in American or European markets, in 2017 Asian markets made up 17% of total Steam sales–not an insignificant number. Indeed, PC gaming is on the rise in Japan. A 2018 Famitsu report estimated that there were 15 million PC gamers compared 23 million console players in 2017, and a BCN Retail report from around the same time found an 80% increase in gaming PC sales at one store location compared to the previous year. Another indicator of the growth of PC gaming in Japan would be the adoption of Steam as a platform with which to release major Japanese titles. Companies such as Sega, Square Enix, Capcom, and Bandai-Namco among others, smelling the large amounts of money, have made it a habit to release their major titles on Steam. While primarily intended for abroad markets, this acknowledgement lends validity to PC gaming domestically as well. While not as significant as other means of gaming, PC gaming is becoming increasingly prevalent in Japan–not counting the fact that many prominent game developers, such as Sakurai, acknowledged PC gaming before its growth. But I shouldn't get ahead of myself—I'll come back to this point.

"but tehponycorn!!1!" you say, "Nintendo and Valve are sworn enemies and have a blood rivalry going back decades! No way would they work together on Smash!!"

to which I say,
View attachment 296727

While it is true that Gabe Newell is on the record discussing Valve's jealousy of Nintendo, taking a look at the full quote provides a different picture:


Valve doesn't resent Nintendo or anything like that. Instead, they respect Nintendo's capability to model new hardware and software simultaneously among other abilities. Looking closer into the relationship between Nintendo and Valve, it's clear that the two share a mutual respect for one another, and it's less that they hate each other and more that things have never lined up right for them to work together.

For one, there's a Portal game on the eShop right now. While not developed by Valve, they're clearly okay releasing games on Nintendo hardware—I'd also argue that this is the technicality Gordon needs to meet the "must appear on a Nintendo console to be in Smash" rule, but the lineup of DLC we've gotten has broken fanrule after fanrule, and the criteria for this rule continues to be stretched further and further that I doubt it even matters at this point, but I digress. We also know that Gabe Newell met with Nintendo executives around 2011-2012 to discuss a joint business venture that, unfortunately, did not work out. You'd think the trail ends there, but it doesn't. Thanks to a confirmed source code leak that included internal company communications, we know that Nintendo reached out to Valve themselves in early 2016, offering 6 figures for an exclusive Half-Life game on the Switch, which would've supposedly been named Half-Life Tactics. While the pastebin of the leak has, unfortunately, been taken down, Wunderwaft managed to post the most important parts in the Gordon Freeman thread. I'll only be quoting the most important parts below, so please head over there if you'd like to read more:



Unfortunately, said project was canceled for an unknown reason, though it is commonly speculated that Valve was afraid of the negative reception of the first Half-Life release in years being a Nintendo exclusive.

I think the most important thing to take away from the above leak is that Nintendo knows the value of the Half Life series. Just as we know Nintendo paid money for Monster Hunter Rise to be a timed exclusive, they would've paid money for an exclusive Half-Life game. This is especially important when we consider negotiations for Smash Bros. are known to have occurred over the span of years, such as in the case of Steve, whose negotiations go back to at least 2017. If we further revisit the Dropped Deals leak (which SharkLord posted a very nice summary of) posted shortly after Ultimate's release date, it becomes feasible to think that Nintendo, knowing the value of the Half-Life series, negotiated for Gordon as Smash DLC but ended up putting it on the backburner as the result of the exclusive deal falling through. If they're revisiting previous negotiations, it's further feasible that they would return to their negotiations for Gordon regardless of any deal given the notoriety of the Half-Life series and its recent resurgence (which is, again, a point I'll talk about later). Of course, negotiations could have also taken place at a later time unrelated to the exclusive deal entirely.

Tying into this, Gabe Newell is also on the record saying that Valve would collaborate with Nintendo on anything Smash related. Similar to how Phil Spencer championed Banjo & Kazooie (and probably Steve behind the scenes), Gabe Newell would presumably champion any Valve content in Smash Bros., including Gordon Freeman as a playable character.

So, Nintendo and Valve clearly recognize each other's value and have no problems working together. Rather than any sort of animosity, it is merely the result of unfortunate luck that the two have never worked together in any major way. A pathway for Gordon to be a playable character in Smash Bros. exists thanks to Nintendo's recognition of the significant value of the Half-Life series and Gabe Newell's openness to include Valve content in Smash Bros.

Spoiler: On Half-Life

Similar to Valve and Steam, I don't think Half-Life needs much introduction. It's one of the most influential video games of all time. The Source Engine that Valve created just for Half Life 2 was used to create countless other games (Counter Strike, Team Fortress, G-Mod, etc.), and the series has retained a significant fanbase despite with a decade of silence from Valve (no, we are not talking about Hunt Down the Freeman). There's a very enlightening feature-length documentary on the two aforementioned topics that I'd suggest you check out if you want to learn more about the series.

I think it's kind of mandatory that I provide some sales figures to show the series' popularity in this piece, so here's the paragraph in which I do so. As of December 2008, the series had sold a combined 28.1 million units between games and expansions (9.3 m from Half-Life 1, 9.5 m from Half-Life 2, and 9.3 from expansions). The Orange Box, a pack of Valve games containing Half-Life 2, had sold 3 million units by that time as well. By February 2011, Half-Life 2 had independently sold 12 million copies. Given the amount of time that's passed since these reports, these numbers have surely grown much higher since then. Half-Life Alyx, the most recent release in the series has seemingly surpassed 2 million units sold as of December 2020, and, as of May 2020, had brought in nearly 1 million users to Steam in a record gain. For a VR exclusive release this is incredibly impressive, with it even managing to match Beat Saber–arguably the most popular VR game–in concurrent users on its release day.

While no real data exists to show how the Half-Life series has fared in Japan, there is evidence to suggest that the series holds acclaim among Japanese game developers. To start, Gordon Freeman has received cameos in prominent Japanese releases, such as Phantasy Star Online 2 (Sega), Death Stranding (Kojima Productions), and Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix) (the Half-Life team at Valve even sent FFXV's Community Director a Head Crab hat for the announcement of this).

There's also the incredibly curious case of the Half-Life 2 Japan-exclusive arcade release, which was pretty much the entire game but in arcade form. When asked about why Half-Life 2 was brought to Japan in this way Takuma Hanagata. a developer of the machine, had this to say:


For a dominantly Western-favored series, Half-Life is appreciated a surprising amount if the nods and attempts to show it off to Japanese video game players is any indication.

Most notably, Sakurai wrote about Half-Life 2 in a 2004 Famitsu column of his, saying:


In a later interview on the article, Sakurai defended the ability of players to act freely during cutscenes and said that the game had a "Nintendo vibe" to it. While I would encourage readers to take any argument that cites a Sakurai article with a healthy amount of salt, it's clear in this case that Sakurai holds the Half-Life series in high regard. I would even go so far as to argue that Sakurai would choose to add Gordon Freeman to Smash if presented with him because of this.

Finally, I'd like to address the longevity of the series, since it seems that most of our DLC characters so far cross-promote another game, be it on Nintendo consoles (Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Editiontm) or on competing hardware (Persona 5 Royal, Final Fantasy 7 Remake). While the series was dormant for over a decade, in an announcement about Half Life Alyx, Gabe Newell said that "Everyone at Valve is excited to be returning to the world of Half-Life." A multimedia documentary about the making of Half-Life Alyx also revealed information about at least 3 Half-Life projects that were in development but were, unfortunately, canceled, showing that despite the 12 years of silence attempts were made from within Valve to release new games in the series. If only Portal could get the same treatment.

It's clear that Half-Life is not only an important series for Valve, but it's also one that they will continue to revisit in the future. If approached to negotiate for a character in Smash, Valve would surely put Half-Life on the table as including a Half-Life character in Smash Bros. would carry the most significant promotional value for both Nintendo and Valve.

Spoiler: Conclusion

In conclusion, the relationship between Nintendo and Valve is not as bad as fans make it out to be, with the two companies sharing a mutual respect and understanding of each other's value. Valve is an incredibly influential company within the sphere of PC gaming, which is currently experiencing massive growth in the Japanese market. Half-Life as a series has not only defined an entire generation of PC gaming, but is also highly respected among prominent Japanese video game developers and companies—including Sakurai and Nintendo. Provided this alongside Gabe Newell's statements on including Valve properties in Smash Bros., it is not as far a reach as one would think for Gordon Freeman to be one of our next DLC fighters. At the very least, I would consider him a definite likelihood and would not underestimate his chances.

Spoiler: Postscript

It's kind of weird being back. I'm sure some people might think my former goodbyes are now cheapened, but I stand by what I said back then. My life only continues to get busy (I'm starting work on my undergrad thesis and two other research initiatives next semester) and I'm actually making progress on my backlog of games (I'm playing Devil May Cry 3 on Switch right now and it's really fun). I might stick around for a bit to answer any questions on this essay or give my thoughts on current speculation, but otherwise I wanted to just pop in, drop an essay, and vanish into the ether for an indiscriminate amount of time again.

Except, before I do so, let it be known that I wrote about both Steve and Sephiroth and it's a shame I was not here to flex my 500 IQ speculation. ;(

Anyways, I hope everyone's staying healthy and safe, and happy holidays to you all! I suppose in a way this is an early Christmas present, so I sincerely hope you enjoyed reading!

Great essay!

I was looking forward to this one and it didn't disappoint. Gordon is someone I like bringing up even if he doesn't seem that likely in retrospect compared to everyone else. Regardless, he does have a chance that is usually under looked and I'm glad you didn't pull any punches for it.

 

[Perkilator]

Don't know about you, but it doesn't look like we're talking about it anymore. Just looks like Byleth again. Same old, same old...

So let's talk about Sakura Wars instead!

...Or we can scream about Assist Trophies again...

...or question Sora's legality...

 

[kylexv]

Nintendo ninjas have been proven to be kind of real.

New Nintendo leaks shows how they spied and legally threatened a 3DS CFW/homebrew developer, would approach him at his homehttps://t.co/UTQEt5eT6p

— NESbot (@NESbot_feed) December 22, 2020

Nintendo will forever be petty without rhyme or reason.

It gets crazy, though. Nintendo legit stalked a 3DS hacker, tracking his activity in his house and his trips made outside of his house.
Wild stuff (and quite creepy too), but apparently is a common tactic for corporations.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Great essay!

I was looking forward to this one and it didn't disappoint. Gordon is someone I like bringing up even if he doesn't seem that likely in retrospect compared to everyone else. Regardless, he does have a chance that is usually under looked and I'm glad you didn't pull any punches for it.

Good thing I had the motivation to do so! Gordon in Smash is a really interesting thought, considering that he was seen as "impossible" until our notions of speculation were kinda shattered. He's a really interesting character from an incredibly influential series, so I'd love to see him in the game.

 

[SirBillyBob]

If there is one thing that's going for Gordon, it's that you don't have to get a voice actor.

 

[SharkLord]

I suppose in this case Brazil would be Discord but whatever

Hello everyone!

It's been a while, huh? Never really thought I'd come back here (or that we'd ever get a new spec thread), but here I am. And just in time to break up speculation on an incredibly dumb topic (I honestly can't believe we're back on Byleth—people really just gotta accept that Byleth is in the game because Nintendo wanted them to be and not for any other inane, conspiratorial reason).

Anyways, I've been chilling and casually speculating in Discord for the past couple of months, and it's been really nice. I don't have much time to post on forums nowadays given my personal life and immense backlog—and to be honest my relationship with speculation in the past was rather unhealthy, which is why I left. However, right now I find myself I'm in lull with my work and a flash of inspiration to write a long-form speculation piece for old time's sake.

Which is why, returning for one night only, tehponycorn presents:

Spoiler: Essay

The Case for Gordon Freeman

Spoiler: Acknowledgements

• As always, I'll check my bias at the door—I don't have any. The closest I've ever gotten to touching Half-Life personally is a couple of games of CS:GO and TF2 I played literal years ago, as well as the countless Half-Life 3 jokes online (as a Kingdom Hearts fan, I can sympathize).
• I'd like to thank everyone over on the Discord for providing support and encouragement for this piece. I probably wouldn't be posting this if y'all hadn't encouraged me to do so. Luigi The President first put this idea in my head, so credit to her where it's due.
• I'd specifically like to thank Wunderwaft for helping me refine my points and providing some additional sources to strengthen my arguments. He's the owner of the Gordon Freeman thread, so if you find yourself convinced by my argument and want to support the character, feel free to head on over there and add yourself to the list of supporters (such as myself)!
• Finally like to thank NonSpecificGuy for unbanning my account lol. Don't worry I didn't break any rules I just didn't trust myself to actually leave back when I left.

Spoiler: Introduction

Since my departure in September, Smash Speculation has been turned on its head with the reveals of Steve Minecraft and Sephiroth. Both shattered fan expectations and established new precedents, showing us that the criteria with which we as speculators judged the likelihood of characters is, at best, faulty, and, at worst, is completely invalid. It feels like the sky is the limit, and if you were to ask me who I thought was coming next I wouldn't know what to tell you.

While Steve and Sephiroth are both monumental reveals in of themselves, I feel like there's still room for another bombshell reveal. It's clear that Sakurai and Nintendo aren't pulling any punches this time around, and returning to the idea of Smash Bros Ultimate "is a celebration of gaming" that Sakurai mentioned in the Byleth Presentation, it's feasible to think that they're going for broke and pulling in the biggest icons they can grab. At this point I wouldn't rule out anyone, including previously thought "impossible" characters such as Gordon Freeman, who I'll be arguing for in this essay.

I'll start by discussing Valve, Steam, and the nature of PC gaming in Japan, specifically mentioning the rise of Steam as a PC gaming platform in Japan. Next, I'll detail the relationship between Nintendo and Valve and dismissing the notion that the two have no business relationship or are enemies of one another. I'll then conclude by talking about the Half-Life series, its influential nature within the realm of PC gaming, its history and future, and the respect and acclaim it receives from Japanese companies and developers.

Spoiler: On Valve

I don't think Valve needs any sort of major introduction. They're quite literally the largest and most influential PC gaming company, not only because of their beloved franchises (and inability to count to 3 when it comes to sequels), but because of their digital video game distribution platform, Steam. Steam is by far the most common way of acquiring and playing PC games, with its share only just now being encroached upon by competitors such as Epic Games and GOG. Regardless, Steam consistently pulls in massive numbers of users. In August 2017 Valve reported that Steam saw 67 million monthly active players and 33 million daily active players, as well as 27 million first-time purchasers since January 2016–all of which are significant indicators of size and growth. In January 2018 they set a new concurrent user record with 18.5 million concurrent users, a record which has been beaten twice and now sits at 24.7 million concurrent users as of December 2020. Valve can reasonably be credited for the rise of PC Gaming itself through the development and promotion of their Steam platform, which shows in their ubiquity in the field and their massive userbase.

Also of note is Steam's prominence in Eastern markets. While not as prominent as in American or European markets, in 2017 Asian markets made up 17% of total Steam sales–not an insignificant number. Indeed, PC gaming is on the rise in Japan. A 2018 Famitsu report estimated that there were 15 million PC gamers compared 23 million console players in 2017, and a BCN Retail report from around the same time found an 80% increase in gaming PC sales at one store location compared to the previous year. Another indicator of the growth of PC gaming in Japan would be the adoption of Steam as a platform with which to release major Japanese titles. Companies such as Sega, Square Enix, Capcom, and Bandai-Namco among others, smelling the large amounts of money, have made it a habit to release their major titles on Steam. While primarily intended for abroad markets, this acknowledgement lends validity to PC gaming domestically as well. While not as significant as other means of gaming, PC gaming is becoming increasingly prevalent in Japan–not counting the fact that many prominent game developers, such as Sakurai, acknowledged PC gaming before its growth. But I shouldn't get ahead of myself—I'll come back to this point.

"but tehponycorn!!1!" you say, "Nintendo and Valve are sworn enemies and have a blood rivalry going back decades! No way would they work together on Smash!!"

to which I say,
View attachment 296727

While it is true that Gabe Newell is on the record discussing Valve's jealousy of Nintendo, taking a look at the full quote provides a different picture:


Valve doesn't resent Nintendo or anything like that. Instead, they respect Nintendo's capability to model new hardware and software simultaneously among other abilities. Looking closer into the relationship between Nintendo and Valve, it's clear that the two share a mutual respect for one another, and it's less that they hate each other and more that things have never lined up right for them to work together.

For one, there's a Portal game on the eShop right now. While not developed by Valve, they're clearly okay releasing games on Nintendo hardware—I'd also argue that this is the technicality Gordon needs to meet the "must appear on a Nintendo console to be in Smash" rule, but the lineup of DLC we've gotten has broken fanrule after fanrule, and the criteria for this rule continues to be stretched further and further that I doubt it even matters at this point, but I digress. We also know that Gabe Newell met with Nintendo executives around 2011-2012 to discuss a joint business venture that, unfortunately, did not work out. You'd think the trail ends there, but it doesn't. Thanks to a confirmed source code leak that included internal company communications, we know that Nintendo reached out to Valve themselves in early 2016, offering 6 figures for an exclusive Half-Life game on the Switch, which would've supposedly been named Half-Life Tactics. While the pastebin of the leak has, unfortunately, been taken down, Wunderwaft managed to post the most important parts in the Gordon Freeman thread. I'll only be quoting the most important parts below, so please head over there if you'd like to read more:



Unfortunately, said project was canceled for an unknown reason, though it is commonly speculated that Valve was afraid of the negative reception of the first Half-Life release in years being a Nintendo exclusive.

I think the most important thing to take away from the above leak is that Nintendo knows the value of the Half Life series. Just as we know Nintendo paid money for Monster Hunter Rise to be a timed exclusive, they would've paid money for an exclusive Half-Life game. This is especially important when we consider negotiations for Smash Bros. are known to have occurred over the span of years, such as in the case of Steve, whose negotiations go back to at least 2017. If we further revisit the Dropped Deals leak (which SharkLord posted a very nice summary of) posted shortly after Ultimate's release date, it becomes feasible to think that Nintendo, knowing the value of the Half-Life series, negotiated for Gordon as Smash DLC but ended up putting it on the backburner as the result of the exclusive deal falling through. If they're revisiting previous negotiations, it's further feasible that they would return to their negotiations for Gordon regardless of any deal given the notoriety of the Half-Life series and its recent resurgence (which is, again, a point I'll talk about later). Of course, negotiations could have also taken place at a later time unrelated to the exclusive deal entirely.

Tying into this, Gabe Newell is also on the record saying that Valve would collaborate with Nintendo on anything Smash related. Similar to how Phil Spencer championed Banjo & Kazooie (and probably Steve behind the scenes), Gabe Newell would presumably champion any Valve content in Smash Bros., including Gordon Freeman as a playable character.

So, Nintendo and Valve clearly recognize each other's value and have no problems working together. Rather than any sort of animosity, it is merely the result of unfortunate luck that the two have never worked together in any major way. A pathway for Gordon to be a playable character in Smash Bros. exists thanks to Nintendo's recognition of the significant value of the Half-Life series and Gabe Newell's openness to include Valve content in Smash Bros.

Spoiler: On Half-Life

Similar to Valve and Steam, I don't think Half-Life needs much introduction. It's one of the most influential video games of all time. The Source Engine that Valve created just for Half Life 2 was used to create countless other games (Counter Strike, Team Fortress, G-Mod, etc.), and the series has retained a significant fanbase despite with a decade of silence from Valve (no, we are not talking about Hunt Down the Freeman). There's a very enlightening feature-length documentary on the two aforementioned topics that I'd suggest you check out if you want to learn more about the series.

I think it's kind of mandatory that I provide some sales figures to show the series' popularity in this piece, so here's the paragraph in which I do so. As of December 2008, the series had sold a combined 28.1 million units between games and expansions (9.3 m from Half-Life 1, 9.5 m from Half-Life 2, and 9.3 from expansions). The Orange Box, a pack of Valve games containing Half-Life 2, had sold 3 million units by that time as well. By February 2011, Half-Life 2 had independently sold 12 million copies. Given the amount of time that's passed since these reports, these numbers have surely grown much higher since then. Half-Life Alyx, the most recent release in the series has seemingly surpassed 2 million units sold as of December 2020, and, as of May 2020, had brought in nearly 1 million users to Steam in a record gain. For a VR exclusive release this is incredibly impressive, with it even managing to match Beat Saber–arguably the most popular VR game–in concurrent users on its release day.

While no real data exists to show how the Half-Life series has fared in Japan, there is evidence to suggest that the series holds acclaim among Japanese game developers. To start, Gordon Freeman has received cameos in prominent Japanese releases, such as Phantasy Star Online 2 (Sega), Death Stranding (Kojima Productions), and Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix) (the Half-Life team at Valve even sent FFXV's Community Director a Head Crab hat for the announcement of this).

There's also the incredibly curious case of the Half-Life 2 Japan-exclusive arcade release, which was pretty much the entire game but in arcade form. When asked about why Half-Life 2 was brought to Japan in this way Takuma Hanagata. a developer of the machine, had this to say:


For a dominantly Western-favored series, Half-Life is appreciated a surprising amount if the nods and attempts to show it off to Japanese video game players is any indication.

Most notably, Sakurai wrote about Half-Life 2 in a 2004 Famitsu column of his, saying:


In a later interview on the article, Sakurai defended the ability of players to act freely during cutscenes and said that the game had a "Nintendo vibe" to it. While I would encourage readers to take any argument that cites a Sakurai article with a healthy amount of salt, it's clear in this case that Sakurai holds the Half-Life series in high regard. I would even go so far as to argue that Sakurai would choose to add Gordon Freeman to Smash if presented with him because of this.

Finally, I'd like to address the longevity of the series, since it seems that most of our DLC characters so far cross-promote another game, be it on Nintendo consoles (Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Editiontm) or on competing hardware (Persona 5 Royal, Final Fantasy 7 Remake). While the series was dormant for over a decade, in an announcement about Half Life Alyx, Gabe Newell said that "Everyone at Valve is excited to be returning to the world of Half-Life." A multimedia documentary about the making of Half-Life Alyx also revealed information about at least 3 Half-Life projects that were in development but were, unfortunately, canceled, showing that despite the 12 years of silence attempts were made from within Valve to release new games in the series. If only Portal could get the same treatment.

It's clear that Half-Life is not only an important series for Valve, but it's also one that they will continue to revisit in the future. If approached to negotiate for a character in Smash, Valve would surely put Half-Life on the table as including a Half-Life character in Smash Bros. would carry the most significant promotional value for both Nintendo and Valve.

Spoiler: Conclusion

In conclusion, the relationship between Nintendo and Valve is not as bad as fans make it out to be, with the two companies sharing a mutual respect and understanding of each other's value. Valve is an incredibly influential company within the sphere of PC gaming, which is currently experiencing massive growth in the Japanese market. Half-Life as a series has not only defined an entire generation of PC gaming, but is also highly respected among prominent Japanese video game developers and companies—including Sakurai and Nintendo. Provided this alongside Gabe Newell's statements on including Valve properties in Smash Bros., it is not as far a reach as one would think for Gordon Freeman to be one of our next DLC fighters. At the very least, I would consider him a definite likelihood and would not underestimate his chances.

Spoiler: Postscript

It's kind of weird being back. I'm sure some people might think my former goodbyes are now cheapened, but I stand by what I said back then. My life only continues to get busy (I'm starting work on my undergrad thesis and two other research initiatives next semester) and I'm actually making progress on my backlog of games (I'm playing Devil May Cry 3 on Switch right now and it's really fun). I might stick around for a bit to answer any questions on this essay or give my thoughts on current speculation, but otherwise I wanted to just pop in, drop an essay, and vanish into the ether for an indiscriminate amount of time again.

Except, before I do so, let it be known that I wrote about both Steve and Sephiroth and it's a shame I was not here to flex my 500 IQ speculation. ;(

Anyways, I hope everyone's staying healthy and safe, and happy holidays to you all! I suppose in a way this is an early Christmas present, so I sincerely hope you enjoyed reading!

A solid writeup indeed. Valve is definitely a massive company; Maybe we should start considering them a bit more.

Admittedly, I know jack about Half-Life and Gordon Freeman beyond a Crowbar, and HEV Suit, and apparently a Gravity Gun. Can I get a rundown on his arsenal and what he can do?

 

[ShotoStar]

I suppose in this case Brazil would be Discord but whatever

Hello everyone!

It's been a while, huh? Never really thought I'd come back here (or that we'd ever get a new spec thread), but here I am. And just in time to break up speculation on an incredibly dumb topic (I honestly can't believe we're back on Byleth—people really just gotta accept that Byleth is in the game because Nintendo wanted them to be and not for any other inane, conspiratorial reason).

Anyways, I've been chilling and casually speculating in Discord for the past couple of months, and it's been really nice. I don't have much time to post on forums nowadays given my personal life and immense backlog—and to be honest my relationship with speculation in the past was rather unhealthy, which is why I left. However, right now I find myself I'm in lull with my work and a flash of inspiration to write a long-form speculation piece for old time's sake.

Which is why, returning for one night only, tehponycorn presents:

Spoiler: Essay

The Case for Gordon Freeman

Spoiler: Acknowledgements

• As always, I'll check my bias at the door—I don't have any. The closest I've ever gotten to touching Half-Life personally is a couple of games of CS:GO and TF2 I played literal years ago, as well as the countless Half-Life 3 jokes online (as a Kingdom Hearts fan, I can sympathize).
• I'd like to thank everyone over on the Discord for providing support and encouragement for this piece. I probably wouldn't be posting this if y'all hadn't encouraged me to do so. Luigi The President first put this idea in my head, so credit to her where it's due.
• I'd specifically like to thank Wunderwaft for helping me refine my points and providing some additional sources to strengthen my arguments. He's the owner of the Gordon Freeman thread, so if you find yourself convinced by my argument and want to support the character, feel free to head on over there and add yourself to the list of supporters (such as myself)!
• Finally like to thank NonSpecificGuy for unbanning my account lol. Don't worry I didn't break any rules I just didn't trust myself to actually leave back when I left.

Spoiler: Introduction

Since my departure in September, Smash Speculation has been turned on its head with the reveals of Steve Minecraft and Sephiroth. Both shattered fan expectations and established new precedents, showing us that the criteria with which we as speculators judged the likelihood of characters is, at best, faulty, and, at worst, is completely invalid. It feels like the sky is the limit, and if you were to ask me who I thought was coming next I wouldn't know what to tell you.

While Steve and Sephiroth are both monumental reveals in of themselves, I feel like there's still room for another bombshell reveal. It's clear that Sakurai and Nintendo aren't pulling any punches this time around, and returning to the idea of Smash Bros Ultimate "is a celebration of gaming" that Sakurai mentioned in the Byleth Presentation, it's feasible to think that they're going for broke and pulling in the biggest icons they can grab. At this point I wouldn't rule out anyone, including previously thought "impossible" characters such as Gordon Freeman, who I'll be arguing for in this essay.

I'll start by discussing Valve, Steam, and the nature of PC gaming in Japan, specifically mentioning the rise of Steam as a PC gaming platform in Japan. Next, I'll detail the relationship between Nintendo and Valve and dismissing the notion that the two have no business relationship or are enemies of one another. I'll then conclude by talking about the Half-Life series, its influential nature within the realm of PC gaming, its history and future, and the respect and acclaim it receives from Japanese companies and developers.

Spoiler: On Valve

I don't think Valve needs any sort of major introduction. They're quite literally the largest and most influential PC gaming company, not only because of their beloved franchises (and inability to count to 3 when it comes to sequels), but because of their digital video game distribution platform, Steam. Steam is by far the most common way of acquiring and playing PC games, with its share only just now being encroached upon by competitors such as Epic Games and GOG. Regardless, Steam consistently pulls in massive numbers of users. In August 2017 Valve reported that Steam saw 67 million monthly active players and 33 million daily active players, as well as 27 million first-time purchasers since January 2016–all of which are significant indicators of size and growth. In January 2018 they set a new concurrent user record with 18.5 million concurrent users, a record which has been beaten twice and now sits at 24.7 million concurrent users as of December 2020. Valve can reasonably be credited for the rise of PC Gaming itself through the development and promotion of their Steam platform, which shows in their ubiquity in the field and their massive userbase.

Also of note is Steam's prominence in Eastern markets. While not as prominent as in American or European markets, in 2017 Asian markets made up 17% of total Steam sales–not an insignificant number. Indeed, PC gaming is on the rise in Japan. A 2018 Famitsu report estimated that there were 15 million PC gamers compared 23 million console players in 2017, and a BCN Retail report from around the same time found an 80% increase in gaming PC sales at one store location compared to the previous year. Another indicator of the growth of PC gaming in Japan would be the adoption of Steam as a platform with which to release major Japanese titles. Companies such as Sega, Square Enix, Capcom, and Bandai-Namco among others, smelling the large amounts of money, have made it a habit to release their major titles on Steam. While primarily intended for abroad markets, this acknowledgement lends validity to PC gaming domestically as well. While not as significant as other means of gaming, PC gaming is becoming increasingly prevalent in Japan–not counting the fact that many prominent game developers, such as Sakurai, acknowledged PC gaming before its growth. But I shouldn't get ahead of myself—I'll come back to this point.

"but tehponycorn!!1!" you say, "Nintendo and Valve are sworn enemies and have a blood rivalry going back decades! No way would they work together on Smash!!"

to which I say,
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While it is true that Gabe Newell is on the record discussing Valve's jealousy of Nintendo, taking a look at the full quote provides a different picture:


Valve doesn't resent Nintendo or anything like that. Instead, they respect Nintendo's capability to model new hardware and software simultaneously among other abilities. Looking closer into the relationship between Nintendo and Valve, it's clear that the two share a mutual respect for one another, and it's less that they hate each other and more that things have never lined up right for them to work together.

For one, there's a Portal game on the eShop right now. While not developed by Valve, they're clearly okay releasing games on Nintendo hardware—I'd also argue that this is the technicality Gordon needs to meet the "must appear on a Nintendo console to be in Smash" rule, but the lineup of DLC we've gotten has broken fanrule after fanrule, and the criteria for this rule continues to be stretched further and further that I doubt it even matters at this point, but I digress. We also know that Gabe Newell met with Nintendo executives around 2011-2012 to discuss a joint business venture that, unfortunately, did not work out. You'd think the trail ends there, but it doesn't. Thanks to a confirmed source code leak that included internal company communications, we know that Nintendo reached out to Valve themselves in early 2016, offering 6 figures for an exclusive Half-Life game on the Switch, which would've supposedly been named Half-Life Tactics. While the pastebin of the leak has, unfortunately, been taken down, Wunderwaft managed to post the most important parts in the Gordon Freeman thread. I'll only be quoting the most important parts below, so please head over there if you'd like to read more:



Unfortunately, said project was canceled for an unknown reason, though it is commonly speculated that Valve was afraid of the negative reception of the first Half-Life release in years being a Nintendo exclusive.

I think the most important thing to take away from the above leak is that Nintendo knows the value of the Half Life series. Just as we know Nintendo paid money for Monster Hunter Rise to be a timed exclusive, they would've paid money for an exclusive Half-Life game. This is especially important when we consider negotiations for Smash Bros. are known to have occurred over the span of years, such as in the case of Steve, whose negotiations go back to at least 2017. If we further revisit the Dropped Deals leak (which SharkLord posted a very nice summary of) posted shortly after Ultimate's release date, it becomes feasible to think that Nintendo, knowing the value of the Half-Life series, negotiated for Gordon as Smash DLC but ended up putting it on the backburner as the result of the exclusive deal falling through. If they're revisiting previous negotiations, it's further feasible that they would return to their negotiations for Gordon regardless of any deal given the notoriety of the Half-Life series and its recent resurgence (which is, again, a point I'll talk about later). Of course, negotiations could have also taken place at a later time unrelated to the exclusive deal entirely.

Tying into this, Gabe Newell is also on the record saying that Valve would collaborate with Nintendo on anything Smash related. Similar to how Phil Spencer championed Banjo & Kazooie (and probably Steve behind the scenes), Gabe Newell would presumably champion any Valve content in Smash Bros., including Gordon Freeman as a playable character.

So, Nintendo and Valve clearly recognize each other's value and have no problems working together. Rather than any sort of animosity, it is merely the result of unfortunate luck that the two have never worked together in any major way. A pathway for Gordon to be a playable character in Smash Bros. exists thanks to Nintendo's recognition of the significant value of the Half-Life series and Gabe Newell's openness to include Valve content in Smash Bros.

Spoiler: On Half-Life

Similar to Valve and Steam, I don't think Half-Life needs much introduction. It's one of the most influential video games of all time. The Source Engine that Valve created just for Half Life 2 was used to create countless other games (Counter Strike, Team Fortress, G-Mod, etc.), and the series has retained a significant fanbase despite with a decade of silence from Valve (no, we are not talking about Hunt Down the Freeman). There's a very enlightening feature-length documentary on the two aforementioned topics that I'd suggest you check out if you want to learn more about the series.

I think it's kind of mandatory that I provide some sales figures to show the series' popularity in this piece, so here's the paragraph in which I do so. As of December 2008, the series had sold a combined 28.1 million units between games and expansions (9.3 m from Half-Life 1, 9.5 m from Half-Life 2, and 9.3 from expansions). The Orange Box, a pack of Valve games containing Half-Life 2, had sold 3 million units by that time as well. By February 2011, Half-Life 2 had independently sold 12 million copies. Given the amount of time that's passed since these reports, these numbers have surely grown much higher since then. Half-Life Alyx, the most recent release in the series has seemingly surpassed 2 million units sold as of December 2020, and, as of May 2020, had brought in nearly 1 million users to Steam in a record gain. For a VR exclusive release this is incredibly impressive, with it even managing to match Beat Saber–arguably the most popular VR game–in concurrent users on its release day.

While no real data exists to show how the Half-Life series has fared in Japan, there is evidence to suggest that the series holds acclaim among Japanese game developers. To start, Gordon Freeman has received cameos in prominent Japanese releases, such as Phantasy Star Online 2 (Sega), Death Stranding (Kojima Productions), and Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix) (the Half-Life team at Valve even sent FFXV's Community Director a Head Crab hat for the announcement of this).

There's also the incredibly curious case of the Half-Life 2 Japan-exclusive arcade release, which was pretty much the entire game but in arcade form. When asked about why Half-Life 2 was brought to Japan in this way Takuma Hanagata. a developer of the machine, had this to say:


For a dominantly Western-favored series, Half-Life is appreciated a surprising amount if the nods and attempts to show it off to Japanese video game players is any indication.

Most notably, Sakurai wrote about Half-Life 2 in a 2004 Famitsu column of his, saying:


In a later interview on the article, Sakurai defended the ability of players to act freely during cutscenes and said that the game had a "Nintendo vibe" to it. While I would encourage readers to take any argument that cites a Sakurai article with a healthy amount of salt, it's clear in this case that Sakurai holds the Half-Life series in high regard. I would even go so far as to argue that Sakurai would choose to add Gordon Freeman to Smash if presented with him because of this.

Finally, I'd like to address the longevity of the series, since it seems that most of our DLC characters so far cross-promote another game, be it on Nintendo consoles (Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Definitive Editiontm) or on competing hardware (Persona 5 Royal, Final Fantasy 7 Remake). While the series was dormant for over a decade, in an announcement about Half Life Alyx, Gabe Newell said that "Everyone at Valve is excited to be returning to the world of Half-Life." A multimedia documentary about the making of Half-Life Alyx also revealed information about at least 3 Half-Life projects that were in development but were, unfortunately, canceled, showing that despite the 12 years of silence attempts were made from within Valve to release new games in the series. If only Portal could get the same treatment.

It's clear that Half-Life is not only an important series for Valve, but it's also one that they will continue to revisit in the future. If approached to negotiate for a character in Smash, Valve would surely put Half-Life on the table as including a Half-Life character in Smash Bros. would carry the most significant promotional value for both Nintendo and Valve.

Spoiler: Conclusion

In conclusion, the relationship between Nintendo and Valve is not as bad as fans make it out to be, with the two companies sharing a mutual respect and understanding of each other's value. Valve is an incredibly influential company within the sphere of PC gaming, which is currently experiencing massive growth in the Japanese market. Half-Life as a series has not only defined an entire generation of PC gaming, but is also highly respected among prominent Japanese video game developers and companies—including Sakurai and Nintendo. Provided this alongside Gabe Newell's statements on including Valve properties in Smash Bros., it is not as far a reach as one would think for Gordon Freeman to be one of our next DLC fighters. At the very least, I would consider him a definite likelihood and would not underestimate his chances.

Spoiler: Postscript

It's kind of weird being back. I'm sure some people might think my former goodbyes are now cheapened, but I stand by what I said back then. My life only continues to get busy (I'm starting work on my undergrad thesis and two other research initiatives next semester) and I'm actually making progress on my backlog of games (I'm playing Devil May Cry 3 on Switch right now and it's really fun). I might stick around for a bit to answer any questions on this essay or give my thoughts on current speculation, but otherwise I wanted to just pop in, drop an essay, and vanish into the ether for an indiscriminate amount of time again.

Except, before I do so, let it be known that I wrote about both Steve and Sephiroth and it's a shame I was not here to flex my 500 IQ speculation. ;(

Anyways, I hope everyone's staying healthy and safe, and happy holidays to you all! I suppose in a way this is an early Christmas present, so I sincerely hope you enjoyed reading!

BASED KINO RAW THE RETURN OF THE KING

Anyways about your essay idk chief I could still see Gordon Freeman being Mii Costume'd they Mii Costume'd Sans, the internet funny man soooooo.....

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

A solid writeup indeed. Valve is definitely a massive company; Maybe we should start considering them a bit more.

Admittedly, I know jack about Half-Life and Gordon Freeman beyond a Crowbar, and HEV Suit, and apparently a Gravity Gun. Can I get a rundown on his arsenal and what he can do?

That's definitely a question more suited for Wunderwaft and the Gordon Thread. I write about the character's chances from a macro perspective, so I don't really focus on the smaller things like what they could do specifically. Sorry!

 

[Guynamednelson]

Good thing I had the motivation to do so! Gordon in Smash is a really interesting thought, considering that he was seen as "impossible" until our notions of speculation were kinda shattered. He's a really interesting character from an incredibly influential series, so I'd love to see him in the game.

I would be fine with Freeman or Scout in Smash, but I also think the Left 4 Dead survivors are rather underrated as a Valve choice, and not just because I've replayed it nonstop since its recent update. The game is surprisingly popular in Japan for an FPS that can only be played on computers and Xbox consoles, which is reflected in it having its own arcade game and plenty of Japanese content on the Steam Workshop. Not to mention all the L4D-likes that've popped up from its initial wave of popularity.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

BASED KINO RAW THE RETURN OF THE KING

Anyways about your essay idk chief I could still see Gordon Freeman being Mii Costume'd they Mii Costume'd Sans, the internet funny man soooooo.....

I feel like we've had this conversation before...

Anyways, it's certainly possible just as it's possible for any character to be Mii Costume'd (my heart goes out to the Geno fans), but I doubt it if only because of how influential Half-Life is as a series. There's a stark difference between popular internet funnyman Sans and literal genre-definer Gordon Freeman, you know?

 

[SirBillyBob]

I would be fine with Freeman or Scout in Smash, but I also think the Left 4 Dead survivors are rather underrated as a Valve choice, and not just because I've replayed it nonstop since its recent update. The game is surprisingly popular in Japan for an FPS that can only be played on computers and Xbox consoles, which is reflected in it having its own arcade game and plenty of Japanese content on the Steam Workshop. Not to mention all the L4D-likes that've popped up from its initial wave of popularity.

If a L4D survivor gets in then that means this video is canon:

 

[cashregister9]

A solid writeup indeed. Valve is definitely a massive company; Maybe we should start considering them a bit more.

Admittedly, I know jack about Half-Life and Gordon Freeman beyond a Crowbar, and HEV Suit, and apparently a Gravity Gun. Can I get a rundown on his arsenal and what he can do?

Gordon's Arsenal is pretty simple and varied
-Crowbar: Whack things
-Gravity Gun: He can pick up objects from a certain distance and launch them at things
-SMG
-Rifle
-Shotgun
-RPG
-Pistol
-Revolver
-Grenades
-Satchel Charge
-Crossbow
-Gauss Gun: It shoots a quick beam and has a lot of knockback and pushes Gordon away
-Gluon Gun: It is basically the proton pack from Ghostbusters
-Snark: Little bugs that can run around and Explode
-Hivehand: This allows Gordon to shoot Homing Bees
-Bugbait: Gordon can use this to summon Giant bugs named Antlions

Those are the basics the HEV Suit is just a Hazardous Environment Suit

Gordon also uses a large variety of Vehicles throughout the series.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Gauss Gun: It shoots a quick beam

Said beam also pushes him back when used in the air, so it could also work as his up-B.