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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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DevaAshera

DevaAshera

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7NATOR said:
I got a question

Do you think more people buy the Fighter Passes, or do you think more people buy the DLC Separately?
Click to expand...
I think most people are completionists when they buy DLC and just buy the Full Fighters Passes.
RileyXY1 said:
This is also how I feel about Geralt of Rivia. Although he's mostly associated with video games, he started out as a literature character and thus I believe that he is ineligible for Smash.
Click to expand...
Pretty much. The only way that non-game characters are eligible is if they are from video game unique content. For example, Geralt isn't eligible because the games are still based on his origin books, compared to characters like Dracula, who is a literature character as well, but was eligible to appear in Smash due to being essentially a new character in the Castlevania series.
So characters based on non-game characters, such as Saber/Artoria Pendragon, who is an adapted version of King Arthur, would be eligible, much like how Alucard, who was also based on a non-game character but is essentially an original character based on the original, almost was chosen over the Belmonts.
Idon said:
Well I've been saying that for Lyn for 18 years now.

View attachment 300457
Click to expand...
Lyn should get in, to be honest..she is possibly the most popular female character in the franchise.
 
7NATOR

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Also, I have a theory when it Comes to the Relationship between Smash and Indie characters, and the future of Smash

Nintendo/Sakurai and the Team are preparing for Indie Characters in the NEXT SMASH Game Roster through Mii Costumes, Assists, and etc.


-This theory is not affected by whether you count Steve as an Indie character or not

-I personally don’t think we’ll get Indie characters in FP2, and I’ll explain in the theory


I think Indie Characters are being prepared to have more influence on the Playable roster in the NEXT Smash game, but Here are the reasons I don’t think we haven’t/will not get any Indie characters (if you don’t count Steve) in the Ultimate Roster

-Most of the Popular Indie franchises either were created around 2014-2015 (or even later), when the Ultimate roster was being decided, or were only starting to get Momentum. Here’s some examples

-Shovel Knight came out late 2014
-FNAF 1 came out Mid 2014
-Gunvolt came out Mid 2014
-Crypt of the Necrodancer came out late 2014, but blew up with Zelda crossover in 2019
-Undertale came out late 2015
-Ori came out early 2015
-Cuphead came out 2017
-Among us came out 2018, but only started getting popular in 2020
-Hollow Knight came out 2018
-Fallguys came out 2020
-Hades came out 2020


The only notable Indie franchises/games that came out earlier are

-Touhou in 1996
-Cave story in 2004 (but popularized in 2010)
-Super Meatboy in 2010
-Shantae got revived around 2010


This is a problem because if you notice, when it comes to 3rd party characters, The franchise they come from usually has a legacy or some years to establish itself has not just a popular game, but something that perhaps has Legs



The Newest franchise added to Smash is Minecraft, which came out in 2009 (and really popularized around 2011 with Java release). When Minecraft was in talks to be added around 2015, it did have 4+ years to establish itself already.

Even if the characters themselves come from Very recent games (Joker and Persona 5) their franchise at least has a legacy.

By the time the Main roster was decided around 2015, Most of the popular Indie games at most only had a year in their legacy. The 4 Exceptions (Touhou, Cave Story, Super Meatboy, Shantae) probably also had major problems with them that they were not prioritized

It’s also possible that a good amount of DLC in Ultimate was also in talks in 2015 as well, or in consideration. Remember negotiations take a long time because everything about that character when they are represented in Smash has to be agreed upon by the Company and Nintendo, which leads into the next point

-Most of the Indies would perhaps need more discussion on Conceptualizing and Translation to Smash, due to most of the Popular Indies being 2D (Meaning there needs to be heavy discussion on Design elements of the characters and stages and etc when translating to 3D)

The only Popular Indies that are 3D Model Based are Five Nights at Freddy’s, Fall Guys, and Hades (?). This is also not including Minecraft

Also a big problem is that besides Touhou, and perhaps Gunvolt, most of these franchises are Western based, though Toby Fox can speak Japanese.



The combination of all this makes me believe there won’t be Indie characters in FP2 and in Ultimate in general. However I do believe Smash 6 will have more Indie influence on the roster, and here’s some of my reasonsings (and how Ultimate is helping with that)

-Indie games not only have gotten more popular, but the Indie franchises are starting to get more Legacy and/or perhaps turn into Actual franchises

-Shovel Knight has had many Expansions released, as well as Crossover titles
-Shantae has had more games produced, and has been getting more popular
-Undertale has been more set into Popular culture and gaming masses, and there is Sequel game in Production
-Five Nights at Freddy’s has had Multiple games come out, span it’s own Library of Fangames, had Books, and has a Movie in Production



And those are just examples, Other Indie franchises are starting to turn into Franchises and having more legacy and Indies as are whole are starting to become more popular


-While conceptualizing everything might be harder, because there aren’t as many resources to Re-use, The cost of including an Indie is probably alot Smaller than characters from Huge companies, and because there’s only a few, or even just one person behind Indie I.Ps, might make discussions easier


-The point of this theory: The Mii Costumes and Assists are giving Indie characters something valuable to re-use next game...3D Assets

The Assist trophy of Shovel Knight, as well as the Mii Costumes of Sans and Cuphead could be used in the future as a blueprint for an actual fighter, since the Design elements are already decided on since the Model is made, and the Model could be re-used to not have to redesign everything.



Which is why I think even if Indie characters (if you don’t count Steve) are just regulated to Costumes, it’s still a Win since it actually has an effect on their chances for the Next Smash roster, since they have assets to re-use, and shows actual discussion with the I.P Holders (that might still be going on)


TL;DR

Nintendo and Sakurai are preparing for Indie characters to have more of an influence on the Next Smash game roster, because through Assists and Mii costumes, they are gaining 3D Assets which is useful for next game for re-usability and already having a basis on the design elements they will have.

Also since Indie franchises are becoming more popular and Bigger, and they likely don’t have as high of licensing costs as Regular companies, they might be more prioritized in the future
 
StarBot

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Professor Pumpkaboo said:
Thats just it, we dont ****in know if they would ask for a boat load of money or not. For all we know, getting him might be hella easy. Everyone is taking what that dude said as fact for some stupid reason and now the whole "Disney rejected Nintendo" Misinformation is ****ing everywhere
Click to expand...
Since your that defensive over Sora, can you please example and justify that Sora DLC in that one SE game that I can't remember the name of...

And you know... that fact he's own by Disney
 
Otoad64

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7NATOR said:
The Newest franchise added to Smash is Minecraft, which came out in 2009 (and really popularized around 2011 with Java release). When Minecraft was in talks to be added around 2015, it did have 4+ years to establish itself already.
Click to expand...
the newest 3rd party series you mean.
 
RileyXY1

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StarBot said:
Since your that defensive over Sora, can you please example and justify that Sora DLC in that one SE game that I can't remember the name of...

And you know... that fact he's own by Disney
Click to expand...
But in that game he was a timed character, meaning that he went away after a while.
 
SNEKeater

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N3ON said:
I think people are looking at Microsoft's stance when it comes to cooperation and collaboration with their rivals and thinking that's more the norm than the exception. Which is obviously backwards. What Microsoft is doing is great for us, but very atypical in business in general.

Sony and Nintendo act as you would expect competitors to act. With very little done in the way to benefit each other, and only cooperating over very general things that hinder them all equally, and would potentially hinder them even more if they weren't proactive about it, like lootbox regulation and piracy.

Now you have the very occasional exception like Kratos in Fortnite. But there you also have to consider that Fortnite is the biggest game out there, and available on basically every platform. Despite Smash being huge, Fortnite is still monumentally bigger, and, crucially, multiplatform. I would be cautious extrapolating too much from it. And if you think that Sony is being austere, consider how unlikely it is for Nintendo to ever allow their IP to exist cross-platform within a product like Fortnite. People speculate over Samus appearing as the other two did and all I can say is good luck.

It also speaks to the revisionism in which people looked at Banjo's inclusion as something that had little standing in its way once the popularity was there.

So when it comes to Master Chief and Kratos, I don't really even consider them in the same position. The former actually seems possible, while the latter is not impossible per-say, but I find Sony less likely to be willing to lend their character to Smash than even Disney. At least Disney probably would for the right (albeit astronomical) price.
Click to expand...
Agreed. I don't get why people expect Sony to play nice with Nintendo. Competitors being like that is the normal thing, not what Microsoft has done so far.

Besides, I don't get the notion why some people assume Sony has to want to play nice in order to get some kind of collaboration between them and Nintendo. I mean, I'd love that to happen, but who knows, maybe the problem here it's Nintendo? I mean we all know they're pretty particular in some aspects, and obviously there's their whole story with Sony.

What I'm trying to say, sometimes feels like people assumes Sony is the problem here, but they never consider that maybe Nintendo is the biggest roadblock here for a potential collaboration. Or like, both of them, which is probably the right answer.

I'd love to see Kratos in Smash, but as of now that is highly unlikely. Sony would probably refuse? Yeah but for them to refuse we would need Nintendo to approach them in first place, which is as unlikely, if not more, as Sony accepting Nintendo's proposal.
 
Miles of SmashWiki

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SMAASH! Puppy said:
Did they ever confirm that it isn't anymore?

EDIT: Last I've heard is that they refuse to say, which probably means it's complicated.
Click to expand...
Even setting aside the non-Nintendo releases, the Switch version is unambiguously listed as just "© PlatinumGames Inc." whereas the Wii U original was "© Nintendo / PlatinumGames Inc.", same as Astral Chain.
 
Idon

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It seems Disney is fine with Kingdom Hearts in Square Enix properties, but so far I haven't seen it get licensed to anything else.
We've got Sora in World of Final Fantasy,
1611535333211.png
Sora in Final Fantasy Record Keeper (twice),
1611535728955.png 1611536193497.png
Sora (twice) in Final Fantasy Brave Exvius,


Kingdom Hearts Cloud in Dissidia (twice),
1611535488267.png
1611535421280.png
and Kingdom Hearts Sephiroth in Dissidia (twice),
1611535494653.png
1611535551859.png
So if I had to guess, I'd say that Disney is lenient on Square Enix using the Kingdom Hearts IP in Final Fantasy specifically, but nowhere and nobody else has the same privileges and easy access to the franchise as them.

Maybe I'll eat crow for this later, but I wouldn't say these crossovers indicate that Disney is very laissez-faire with the Kingdom Hearts franchise and I certainly wouldn't bet on him making a Smash appearance.
It'd be pretty cool though
 
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N3ON

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Idon said:
If we're talking about impossible characters, man what a missed opportunity it was to not include the Astral Chain guys.
Click to expand...
Eh, with the timing of everything I get why they missed the boat, unfortunate as it may be. At least they'll probably get in eventually, since Astral Chain seems likely to continue.

SpectreJordan said:
Nintendo saving big names like Chief for the next game make a lot of sense. Though, I do think that one is a bit risky. Mainly because the MS friendship is really new & could easily change if Phil Spencer isn’t in charge of Xbox when the next Smash is out.
Click to expand...
With Chief, I don't think it makes sense.

What Nintendo and Microsoft have now is very rare and potentially fleeting, and they should make the most of it while it lasts, because as competitors there's nothing to say the dynamic won't revert back to a more standard one by the next title. And I'm sure Nintendo is cognizant of that.

Moreover, unless the next Smash starts development right after this one, as it did for 4 and Ultimate, I don't imagine Nintendo is going to purposely save any characters. That's not how it typically works when there's no immediate plan for more.

SNEKeater said:
Agreed. I don't get why people expect Sony to play nice with Nintendo. Competitors being like that is the normal thing, not what Microsoft has done so far.

Besides, I don't get the notion why some people assume Sony has to want to play nice in order to get some kind of collaboration between them and Nintendo. I mean, I'd love that to happen, but who knows, maybe the problem here it's Nintendo? I mean we all know they're pretty particular in some aspects, and obviously there's their whole story with Sony.

What I'm trying to say, sometimes feels like people assumes Sony is the problem here, but they never consider that maybe Nintendo is the biggest roadblock here for a potential collaboration. Or like, both of them, which is probably the right answer.

I'd love to see Kratos in Smash, but as of now that is highly unlikely. Sony would probably refuse? Yeah but for them to refuse we would need Nintendo to approach them in first place, which is as unlikely, if not more, as Sony accepting Nintendo's proposal.
Click to expand...
I mean, if Nintendo is fine putting Microsoft characters in Smash they'd probably be fine putting Sony characters in as well. I suspect "the fault" would mostly lie with Sony on this. It's just that "the fault" is simply competitors being competitors, so I don't begrudge them.

I know if the shoe were on the other foot, Nintendo would probably be even less likely to cooperate. Nintendo is one of the stingiest, strictest IP holders not just in gaming, but in general.

The lack of cooperation is just the status quo. It's unfortunate, but to condemn a certain company doing it is to look past almost all the others who do the same. This is just Microsoft making Sony look bad, which is funny, but not really Sony's fault.

Miles of SmashWiki said:
We didn't get Wonder-Red when TW101 was still a Nintendo IP, either. Rather unfortunate.
Click to expand...
Yeah but W101 bombed so hard Nintendo actually allowed it to be multiplatform. Which is almost incomprehensible for Nintendo. Astral Chain was actually a success.

Cutie Gwen said:
I can be ur one winged angel.... or ur one winged devil...
Click to expand...
*One winged angle
 
Idon

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Ivander said:
Hope that Fire Emblem 6/7 remake comes around the time when Sakurai or the new guy is designing the next roster for the next game......even then, hope that Lyn comes to their minds considering Chrom was chosen over Alm and Celica.
Click to expand...
Chrom had one thing Alm and Celica didn't.
1611536849693.png
memes
And also he's super popular in Japan.
 
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Rie Sonomura

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ES. Dinah said:
Well, do the first 10 or so seconds of the accolades trailer count as being in a trailer?

Click to expand...
Technically yes, but Elma had a whole trailer dedicated ONLY to her. While X was still confined to the Wii U, no less.

and I say this as someone who wants both KOS-MOS and Elma...
 
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ES. Dinah

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Rie Sonomura said:
Technically yes, but Elma had a whole trailer dedicated ONLY to her

and I say this as someone who wants both KOS-MOS and Elma...
Click to expand...
I reckon Monolith didn't want KOS-MOS to have a trailer given her pull rate. The announcement blew up on twitter already and was by far the most popular announcement. I'd like Elma and KOS-MOS too.... I just wanted to clarify that I feel a character trailer doesn't mean much especially since they were trying to sell the expansion pass with the whole challenge trial mode. But that's just me!
 
PLATINUM7

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Idon said:
It seems Disney is fine with Kingdom Hearts in Square Enix properties, but so far I haven't seen it get licensed to anything else.
We've got Sora in World of Final Fantasy,
View attachment 300463
Sora in Final Fantasy Record Keeper (twice),
View attachment 300471View attachment 300473
Sora (twice) in Final Fantasy Brave Exvius,


Kingdom Hearts Cloud in Dissidia (twice),
View attachment 300466View attachment 300464
and Kingdom Hearts Sephiroth in Dissidia (twice),
View attachment 300467View attachment 300468
So if I had to guess, I'd say that Disney is lenient on Square Enix using the Kingdom Hearts IP in Final Fantasy specifically, but nowhere and nobody else has the same privileges and easy access to the franchise as them.

Maybe I'll eat crow for this later, but I wouldn't say these crossovers indicate that Disney is very laissez-faire with the Kingdom Hearts franchise and I certainly wouldn't bet on him making a Smash appearance.
It'd be pretty cool though
Click to expand...
I don't think Disney is involved in the Dissidia stuff as Square still owns the characters and I believe that extends to their KH designs. The only other KH crossover in a video game is I think in a Tsum Tsum mobile game.

Outside of video games, Kingdom Hearts has been licensed for a TCG and board game but who knows how much those licenses reflect getting him in Smash.
 
SharkLord

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Alright, last evaluations.
chocolatejr9 said:
Well, since I'm the designated Euden guy around here...
Click to expand...
PROS:
  • Recent Nintendo IP
  • Nintendo's first fully original mobile game, giving it a degree of significance and appeal towards the casual/mobile market
  • Has absolutely no base game representation whatsoever, which is odd considering how we got deep picks like Goku and Girl from Hajimari no Mori or whatever her name was
  • Gets enough push to have crossovers with big series like Mega Man, Monster Hunter, and Persona 5
CONS:
  • Apparently makes less money than other Nintendo mobile games, like Fire Emblem Heroes
  • Nintendo quoted as wanting to shift focus away from the mobile market
  • Unavailable in Europe outside of the UK
  • Potential competition from fellow Cygames creation Granblue Fantasy, which shouldn't be too hard to get the rights to
Overall: Has a bit of work to put in, but I think he still has a fighting chance. I'd keep my eye on him if I were you
Perkilator said:
Okay. How about Bandana Dee?
Click to expand...
PROS:
  • Popular request for Smash, especially in Japan apparently
  • Consistently appears throughout the series, moreso than almost any other character (From KSSU onward and only counting the main games, more than even King Dedede and Meta Knight)
  • Consistently depicted alongside the main trio
  • Made to represent the Waddle Dees, which are the second closest thing to a third pillar.
  • Potential upcoming 3D Kirby game gives incentive to push the series
CONS:
  • DLC doesn't seem to favor already-represented series.
  • Nintendo could see Kirby as being represented well enough already
Overall: Might need to put a bit of work in to get there, but he seems to be in a pretty decent spot, all things considered.

And that's the last of 'em. As I mentioned before, the majority of the first-parties I went over suffer from some combination of not enough content for a full pack, not having incentive to push their content, not being on modern consoles, deconfirmed by post-launch content from their series, or competition that would push them out of priority. From what I can gather, I think the ones who have at least a decent shot are Rex, Euden, and Bandana Dee, the latter two not seeing as much attention. Maybe we should look into them a bit more closely.
 
DevaAshera

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Idon said:
It seems Disney is fine with Kingdom Hearts in Square Enix properties, but so far I haven't seen it get licensed to anything else.
We've got Sora in World of Final Fantasy,
View attachment 300463
Sora in Final Fantasy Record Keeper (twice),
View attachment 300471View attachment 300473
Sora (twice) in Final Fantasy Brave Exvius,


Kingdom Hearts Cloud in Dissidia (twice),
View attachment 300466View attachment 300464
and Kingdom Hearts Sephiroth in Dissidia (twice),
View attachment 300467View attachment 300468
So if I had to guess, I'd say that Disney is lenient on Square Enix using the Kingdom Hearts IP in Final Fantasy specifically, but nowhere and nobody else has the same privileges and easy access to the franchise as them.

Maybe I'll eat crow for this later, but I wouldn't say these crossovers indicate that Disney is very laissez-faire with the Kingdom Hearts franchise and I certainly wouldn't bet on him making a Smash appearance.
It'd be pretty cool though
Click to expand...
Honestly, it could also be that no one has really tried to license Kingdom Hearts content or those that did were trying for T for Teen rated stuff like Soul Calibur. I can't really think of very many series that would really try to get the rights to use Sora, to be honest..there aren't that many crossover games, outside of Final Fantasy crossovers and Smash Bros that would be a good fit for Sora
 
ALongWistfulSquiggle

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PLATINUM7 said:
I don't think Disney is involved in the Dissidia stuff as Square still owns the characters and I believe that extends to their KH designs. The only other KH crossover in a video game is I think in a Tsum Tsum mobile game.

Outside of video games, Kingdom Hearts has been licensed for a TCG and board game but who knows how much those licenses reflect getting him in Smash.
Click to expand...
I believe Dissidia was originally meant to be a Kingdom Hearts game. Disney said no so the project was converted into a Final Fantasy IP. I don't know that it means anything today, but an interesting tidbit.
 
Speed Weed

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N3ON said:
Yeah but W101 bombed so hard Nintendo actually allowed it to be multiplatform. Which is almost incomprehensible for Nintendo. Astral Chain was actually a success.
Click to expand...
This marks yet another day where I get whiplash from suddenly remembering that we quite literally have a Nintendo IP on the PS4 right now, but instead of being like SUPA MARIO ON DA PS4 or whatever, it's actually a very niche game that bombed so hard that Nintendo, I repeat, ****ing Nintendo, let it go multiplatform.

There are so many layers to this. It's amazing
 
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PLATINUM7

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chocolatejr9

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SharkLord said:
Alright, last evaluations.

PROS:
  • Recent Nintendo IP
  • Nintendo's first fully original mobile game, giving it a degree of significance and appeal towards the casual/mobile market
  • Has absolutely no base game representation whatsoever, which is odd considering how we got deep picks like Goku and Girl from Hajimari no Mori or whatever her name was
  • Gets enough push to have crossovers with big series like Mega Man, Monster Hunter, and Persona 5
CONS:
  • Apparently makes less money than other Nintendo mobile games, like Fire Emblem Heroes
  • Nintendo quoted as wanting to shift focus away from the mobile market
  • Unavailable in Europe outside of the UK
  • Potential competition from fellow Cygames creation Granblue Fantasy, which shouldn't be too hard to get the rights to
Overall: Has a bit of work to put in, but I think he still has a fighting chance. I'd keep my eye on him if I were you

PROS:
  • Popular request for Smash, especially in Japan apparently
  • Consistently appears throughout the series, moreso than almost any other character (From KSSU onward and only counting the main games, more than even King Dedede and Meta Knight)
  • Consistently depicted alongside the main trio
  • Made to represent the Waddle Dees, which are the second closest thing to a third pillar.
  • Potential upcoming 3D Kirby game gives incentive to push the series
CONS:
  • DLC doesn't seem to favor already-represented series.
  • Nintendo could see Kirby as being represented well enough already
Overall: Might need to put a bit of work in to get there, but he seems to be in a pretty decent spot, all things considered.

And that's the last of 'em. As I mentioned before, the majority of the first-parties I went over suffer from some combination of not enough content for a full pack, not having incentive to push their content, not being on modern consoles, deconfirmed by post-launch content from their series, or competition that would push them out of priority. From what I can gather, I think the ones who have at least a decent shot are Rex, Euden, and Bandana Dee, the latter two not seeing as much attention. Maybe we should look into them a bit more closely.
Click to expand...
FINALLY, someone who takes my Euden claims seriously! I swear, it feels like people look at me like I'm crazy whenever I mention him...
 
ALongWistfulSquiggle

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Ben Holt

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Speed Weed said:
This marks yet another day where I get whiplash from suddenly remembering that we quite literally have a Nintendo IP on the PS4 right now, but instead of being like SUPA MARIO ON DA PS4 or whatever, it's actually a very niche game that bombed so hard that Nintendo, I repeat, ****ing Nintendo, let it go multiplatform.

There are so many layers to this. It's amazing
Click to expand...
Well, we still got Donkey Kong and Mario Bros. on Atari 2600. And Hotel Mario and the Zelda games that shall not be mentioned on CD-I.
And Super Mario Bros. Special for Japanese PCs.

Though as a kid, I had the Super Mario Bros. Super Show box set that I played on my PS2, as that was the DVD player we had.
That's KINDA Mario on PlayStation.
 
N3ON

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Ben Holt said:
Well, we still got Donkey Kong and Mario Bros. on Atari 2600. And Hotel Mario and the Zelda games that shall not be mentioned on CD-I.
And Super Mario Bros. Special for Japanese PCs.

Though as a kid, I had the Super Mario Bros. Super Show box set that I played on my PS2, as that was the DVD player we had.
That's KINDA Mario on PlayStation.
Click to expand...
This is some "technically Ultimate is Smash 6" **** right here. :p
 
7NATOR

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If Sora can't come to Smash, Perhaps he can be put in the next Marvel vs Capcom
 
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