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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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RileyXY1

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I don't think that comparison works because Mewtwo was already in Smash and thus wouldn't be a newcomer
A lot of people at the time believed that Pokemon's representation in Smash 4 would just be Brawl's cast along with Mewtwo coming back.
 

True Blue Warrior

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I don't think that comparison works because Mewtwo was already in Smash and thus wouldn't be a newcomer
But Mewtwo was the poster boy for Gen 6 and the Pokemon promoted as the face of that generation, hence the Lucario comparison. The character got a lot of promotion.
 

Pillow

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Idk about Lucario but Greninja never got brought up for Smash 4 from what I saw, everyone was banking on Zoroark happening too
Perhaps not before Smash 4. From what I remember, Smash 4 came out not that long after X/Y was released so Greninja's popularity wasn't solidified yet. But Greninja was continually pushed by TPC for years after, so his inclusion in Smash now seems like a no brainer. TPC could try to turn Cinderace into the new Greninja, seeing as its the signature pokemon of the new anime character and all, but for some reason I just don't see it happening. This could very well be my own personal bias, as a longtime pokemon fan, because I loved Greninja since he was first revealed but have been pretty lukewarm towards Cinderace's design.

I mean looking at the anime and Unite alone shows that Cinderace is the one they seem to push a lot right now. Heck, even the Gotcha music video had Cinderace facing off against Leon's Charizard.
If we are getting a Gen 8 Pokemon, I'd definitely bet on Cinderace. I just feel like Sakurai wouldn't bother with it, specifically as DLC, unless there was a very clear cut option and I don't think Cinderace is quite there yet.
 
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RileyXY1

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Perhaps not before Smash 4. From what I remember, Smash 4 came out not that long after X/Y was released so Greninja's popularity wasn't solidified yet. But Greninja was continually pushed by TPC for years after, so his inclusion in Smash now seems like a no brainer. TPC could try to turn Cinderace into the new Greninja, seeing as its the signature pokemon of the new anime character and all, but for some reason I just don't see it happening. This could very well being personal bias, as a longtime pokemon fan, because I loved Greninja since he was first revealed but have been pretty lukewarm towards Cinderace's design.
Yeah. Cinderace to me looks like a man in a fursuit.
 

Evil Trapezium

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Rex is. Overall, it seems like his Mii Costume leans closer to a base game Mii than a standard DLC Mii
It's funny how people were talking about the possibility of Geno showing up after his Mii costume was released would be a scummy move by Nintendo, yet no one sees an issue with people paying $30 for the whole of Fighter Pass 1 to get a Rex mii costume just to have him appear in Fighter Pass 2 all willy nilly.
 
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Cutie Gwen

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But Mewtwo was the poster boy for Gen 6 and the Pokemon promoted as the face of that generation, hence the Lucario comparison. The character got a lot of promotion.
It literally wasn't, it got 2 megas and one was a sneak peak but it wasn't the first thing people thought of about gen 6 pre or post release
 

WeirdChillFever

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Pokémon is weird in thar bringing up counterpoints to their chances makes them historicallyunderrated, considering we’re just in the one speculation cycle where Pokémon discussion isn’t hailed on a red carpet for being the most obvious thing to happen. Personally, I think it’s in like the top 10 most likely characters, which is of course a huge step down from the bingo free space a Pokémon used to be and I think it takes time to adapt to that new status quo where yeah, it’s uncertain whether we get a new Pokémon newcomer.

This is exacerbated by the fact that, now that Pokémon discussion is not a full subset of regular speculation, people don’t discuss which Pokémon they want, which leads to the general consensus being “man it’s gonna be cinderace isn’t it” which in my opinion isn’t the most exciting prospect. So it leads to a bit of a Fire Emblem effect where people might expect a Pokémon fighter, but then also kinda dread it
 

Fluttershy64

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Mostly because they saw Zoroark as Lucario's "replacement", sort to say, but Zoroark was nothing more than a poor man's Lucario, so it died out while Lucario only got more popular in XY.
Right. As for Pokemon Trainer I remember people thinking that he would be replaced with a Gen 2 or 5 trainer.
 

RileyXY1

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Pokémon is weird in thar bringing up counterpoints to their chances makes them historicallyunderrated, considering we’re just in the one speculation cycle where Pokémon discussion isn’t hailed on a red carpet for being the most obvious thing to happen. Personally, I think it’s in like the top 10 most likely characters, which is of course a huge step down from the bingo free space a Pokémon used to be and I think it takes time to adapt to that new status quo where yeah, it’s uncertain whether we get a new Pokémon newcomer.

This is exacerbated by the fact that, now that Pokémon discussion is not a full subset of regular speculation, people don’t discuss which Pokémon they want, which leads to the general consensus being “man it’s gonna be cinderace isn’t it” which in my opinion isn’t the most exciting prospect. So it leads to a bit of a Fire Emblem effect where people might expect a Pokémon fighter, but then also kinda dread it
Yeah. The fact that Pokemon rarely (if ever) goes back to older gens for new fighters just makes this problem worse.
 

SharkLord

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It's funny how people were talking about the possibility of Geno showing up after his Mii costume was released would be a **** move by Nintendo, yet no one sees an issue with people paying $30 for the whole of Fighter Pass 1 to get a Rex mii costume just to have him appear in Fighter Pass 2 all willy nilly.
Yeah, not sure where that idea comes from. Don't think it'd necessarily be scummy so much as an odd business decision. If you put out one little bit of content only to make a far superior version shortly after, it would just cut off the profit made from the smaller pack. To make the most of it, you'd want to make sure there isn't any overlap in the content.

Though, technically speaking Rex is free, unless all five Challenger Packs in FP1 suddenly cost nothing and a single costume is now worth $25.
 
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chocolatejr9

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It's funny how people were talking about the possibility of Geno showing up after his Mii costume was released would be a scummy move by Nintendo, yet no one sees an issue with people paying $30 for the whole of Fighter Pass 1 to get a Rex mii costume just to have him appear in Fighter Pass 2 all willy nilly.
To be fair, Geno's Mii Costume coming back was pretty obvious in hindsight.

Well, for me, anyways. I figured it out tge moment Heihachi's came back. It was a matter of when, not if.
 

True Blue Warrior

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The people who thought that Greninja could get in thought he was going to be part of a Kalos Trainer character. Or they thought Sylveon was going to be the Gen 6 newcomer. However, most people thought the most likely and ideal roster was :pikachu2::jigglypuff: :pt:(:squirtle::ivysaur::charizard:):lucario: +:mewtwopm: .
 

Pillow

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Pokémon is weird in thar bringing up counterpoints to their chances makes them historicallyunderrated, considering we’re just in the one speculation cycle where Pokémon discussion isn’t hailed on a red carpet for being the most obvious thing to happen. Personally, I think it’s in like the top 10 most likely characters, which is of course a huge step down from the bingo free space a Pokémon used to be and I think it takes time to adapt to that new status quo where yeah, it’s uncertain whether we get a new Pokémon newcomer.

This is exacerbated by the fact that, now that Pokémon discussion is not a full subset of regular speculation, people don’t discuss which Pokémon they want, which leads to the general consensus being “man it’s gonna be cinderace isn’t it” which in my opinion isn’t the most exciting prospect. So it leads to a bit of a Fire Emblem effect where people might expect a Pokémon fighter, but then also kinda dread it
Ultimate DID have the free bingo space Pokemon. It was Incineroar. If we were discussing a new game, rather than DLC, then I think the general sentiment would be that a new pokemon is pretty much guaranteed. It doesn't help that Sakurai really likes making DLC fighters as unique as possible, and Cinderace shares some similarities to the previous pokemon entry, Incineroar, due to them both being fire types (Yeah they'd play totally differently, but their attacks would have visually similar flame effects which Sakurai might try to avoid).
 

Otoad64

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It's funny how people were talking about the possibility of Geno showing up after his Mii costume was released would be a scummy move by Nintendo, yet no one sees an issue with people paying $30 for the whole of Fighter Pass 1 to get a Rex mii costume just to have him appear in Fighter Pass 2 all willy nilly.
well, you don't pay for the mii costume you pay for the fighter's pass and they hand you the costume as a bonus. You don't buy the fighter's pass for a rex costume
 

True Blue Warrior

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It literally wasn't, it got 2 megas and one was a sneak peak but it wasn't the first thing people thought of about gen 6 pre or post release
It also was prominently featured in Pokemon Origins and Pokemon the Movie: Genesect and the Legend Awakened. You cannot forget just how much more promoted Mewtwo was than any new Pokemon at the time. And having two Megas is a huge deal as that was the big new feature of Gen 6 and only one other Pokemon had two.
 

WeirdChillFever

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Ultimate DID have the free bingo space Pokemon. It was Incineroar. If we were discussing a new game, rather than DLC, then I think the general sentiment would be that a new pokemon is pretty much guaranteed. It doesn't help that Sakurai really likes making DLC fighters as unique as possible, and Cinderace shares some similarities to the previous pokemon entry, Incineroar, due to them both being fire types (Yeah they'd play totally differently, but their attacks would have visually similar flame effects which Sakurai might try to avoid).
Yes, though I’d say that a new Pokémon doesn’t have to be Cinderace, nor does Cinderace have to play like Incineroar, especially when the abundance of fire moves on the roster didn’t stop him from adding the tiger wrestler in the first place.
 

Lamperouge

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It's funny how people were talking about the possibility of Geno showing up after his Mii costume was released would be a scummy move by Nintendo, yet no one sees an issue with people paying $30 for the whole of Fighter Pass 1 to get a Rex mii costume just to have him appear in Fighter Pass 2 all willy nilly.
Good thing nobody paid $30 for the Rex costume. I doubt anyone would be furious that their FP1 bonus became obsolete if the real deal was playable later on.
 

True Blue Warrior

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Daily reminder we didn’t get a new Pokemon as DLC for Smash 4, so it’s not exactly a trend for Pokemon to always get a newcomer no matter what. There was enough room for two DLC characters for the highest-grossing media franchise of all time back then, mind you.
 

Koopaul

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Cons
May be seen as too violent for Smash.
The interview did not look good for Doomguy's chances.
Okay here's the biggest cons.

-Incredibly niche series in Japan
-Vault Boy Mii costume was introduced in Fighters Pass 2.

Vault Boy Mii costume means Nintendo negotiated with Bethesda for it before Fighters Pass 2 began. If we are to get a Bethesda fighter, those negotiations would have occured at the same time as Vault Boy. So for what reason did they release the Vault Boy Mii costume with Min Min? Wouldn't it have been released alongside an actual Bethesda fighter? Unless there are a couple of Doom Mii costumes to release along with Doom Slayer so they wanted to give Vault Boy his own time to shine. But that seems very unlikely.

Vault Boy might be the single most biggest factor against Doom or Skyrim. Had Vault Boy been released in Fighter Pass 1, this might be a different story.
 
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Pillow

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Yes, though I’d say that a new Pokémon doesn’t have to be Cinderace, nor does Cinderace have to play like Incineroar, especially when the abundance of fire moves on the roster didn’t stop him from adding the tiger wrestler in the first place.
I think you might've misread my comment a bit. Cinderace would definitely not play anything like Incineroar. But they share a similar fire theme, which might be one factor that'd contribute to Sakurai not being that interested, as he just added a fire themed Pokemon to the franchise.

Honestly, I could see a really cool moveset for Cinderace involving a fiery soccerball gimmick, but the character itself wouldn't excite that many people. I think Nintendo also knows this, as they definitely would have followed reception to Byleth/Min Min in comparison to the 3rd party characters.
 

Perkilator

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It's funny how people were talking about the possibility of Geno showing up after his Mii costume was released would be a scummy move by Nintendo, yet no one sees an issue with people paying $30 for the whole of Fighter Pass 1 to get a Rex mii costume just to have him appear in Fighter Pass 2 all willy nilly.
Rex didn't release at the same time as a Challenger Pack; he was announced as a bonus to the Vol. 1 Pass, in a time when Vol. 2 wasn't planned yet. Geno, on the other hand, came in a Challenger Pack that was halfway through Vol. 2.
 

SharkLord

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Slowpoke. (Damn, mixed it up with Slowbro initially, thanks C chocolatejr9 )

I mean, the Mon's in an ongoing KFC / Pokemon push in China together with already-in Mons (the link to Zhuge's post has an auto-play ad in it, so everyone knows):



(Yeah, I know, just want to see what the Pros / Cons would be. I can guess a couple Cons already, but still, I'm curious.)
Y'know what I'm just gonna do the entire Slowpoke line and it's variations
PROS:
  • Fairly popular and well-known Pokemon
  • Galarian variant was pushed decently well in the DLC, showing up for free before you download the Isle of Armor and all
  • Easy joke of being the sixth character in FP2 because it was invited from the beginning, but was just so slow it happened after all the intended DLC was released.
CONS:
  • Gen 1 is already pretty heavily represented
  • SwSh Spirit Event suggests that a Gen 8 Pokemon isn't in the works, which is a bit of a blow to the Galarian Slowpoke idea.
  • Many other Pokemon from both generations to choose from
Overall: Probably not
Mimikyu, officially the most popular pokemon not yet in Smash.
PROS:
  • As you mentioned, it is indeed very popular
CONS:
  • Generation 7 is already represented with Incineroar, alongside many Pokeballs and enough Spirits to fill out a Spirit Board on it's own
  • Generation 8 likely takes priority due to recency... But again, the timing of the Spirit Event implies that it's not in the cards.
Overall: Maybe next time
 

Cutie Gwen

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It also was prominently featured in Pokemon Origins and Pokemon the Movie: Genesect and the Legend Awakened. You cannot forget just how much more promoted Mewtwo was than any new Pokemon at the time. And having two Megas is a huge deal as that was the big new feature of Gen 6 and only one other Pokemon had two.
Yeah that movie was the sneak peak I mentioned, Mega Mewtwo Y was the only gen 6 content in there and back then, we didn't know megas existed when that movie came out either, it was even dubbed Awakened Forme for a while, everything else was at most, Gen 5. Calling Mewtwo Y a gen 6 posterboy sounds like calling Bonsly and Munchlax the most popular gen 4 mons
 

WeirdChillFever

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I think you might've misread my comment a bit. Cinderace would definitely not play anything like Incineroar. But they share a similar fire theme, which might be one factor that'd contribute to Sakurai not being that interested, as he just added a fire themed Pokemon to the franchise.

Honestly, I could see a really cool moveset for Cinderace involving a fiery soccerball gimmick, but the character itself wouldn't excite that many people. I think Nintendo also knows this, as they definitely would have followed reception to Byleth/Min Min in comparison to the 3rd party characters.
Yes, but the fire effect was already more present on the roster than water-type moves or a grass-inspired moveset, even if it wasn’t on Pokémon. Between Captain Falcon, Roy, Mario and others, fire already had quite the presence on the roster, whereas no earthbender or grass-type was in, for example. And yet, that didn’t stop Incineroar from retreading one of the more common elements on the roster.
 

Pillow

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Yes, but the fire effect was already more present on the roster than water-type moves or a grass-inspired moveset, even if it wasn’t on Pokémon. Between Captain Falcon, Roy, Mario and others, fire already had quite the presence on the roster, whereas no earthbender or grass-type was in, for example. And yet, that didn’t stop Incineroar from retreading one of the more common elements on the roster.
That's true, but I think that the both being pokemon thing is a big deal. Again, I don't think Cinderace is unlikely, per se, just that there are a lot of small factors weighing against its inclusion.

The uncertainty with Pokémon and Rex/Pyra is essentially why they're so often the focus of first party speculation. There's evidence for and against both, and their appearance in the second half the pass both would and wouldn't be a surprise.
If not for the costume thing, I think Rex/Pyra would widely be considered as the most likely DLC candidate.
 
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True Blue Warrior

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Yeah that movie was the sneak peak I mentioned, Mega Mewtwo Y was the only gen 6 content in there and back then, we didn't know megas existed when that movie came out either, it was even dubbed Awakened Forme for a while, everything else was at most, Gen 5. Calling Mewtwo Y a gen 6 posterboy sounds like calling Bonsly and Munchlax the most popular gen 4 mons
Thing is, no other Pokemon was promoted as much as Mewtwo during Gen 6 and since Sakurai’s criteria for Pokemon relates to what was the “hot” Pokemon at the time, no other Pokemon was as “hot” as Mewtwo, hence why it was surprising that Mewtwo was only DLC. Lucario was the “hot” Pokemon during Gen 4 and so Mewtwo was likewise for Gen 6. Being new or not doesn’t really matter as Lucario was always promoted unlike with Greninja (Lucario even made a big splash debut in a 2005 anime movie, the same year the roster for Brawl was finalised).
 

N3ON

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At the beginning of Pokemon speculation last time, people believed it would be Zoroark. I think that's well founded, and would've been the case had Gen V remained the most recent gen to utilize. People downplay that Zoroark was popular at a time, though being the promotional darling was more important. There were other suggestions throughout the gen as well. Victini towards the beginning and Genesect towards the end, but Zoroark was the constant.

However, then Gen VI was revealed, and expectation shifted. However, there was no Lucario or Zoroark of this gen, so to speak. There was Sylveon, who people dismissed as a plausible candidate. Though I didn't expect her either, frankly, I think she could've worked. But that's neither here nor there. There was also Mega Mewtwo Y, but he was just a Mega Evolution. Very few people believed we'd get just one of the starters, so opinion was mostly that they'd just retain Brawl's cast, and hopefully add Mewtwo back. I imagine there were also a few who believed we'd get a Kalos trainer, though they weren't prominent.

Lucario was seen as the most likely to be cut, but it wasn't a ubiquitous thought. It also decreased when Toon Link, another character often expected to face a possible cut, returned.
 

SharkLord

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Toadette!
PROS:
  • Recently popular Mario character, even getting a unique powerup in New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe
CONS:
  • Hasn't had a starring role or a game she's heavily tied to that can't be represented by others as well
  • Lack of Smash requests
  • Might be passed over in favor of Captain Toad or a general Toad, though an appearance as an alt is still possible
  • Mario is already heavily represented, without much bases left to cover
Overall: Maybe next time.
Ganon

Redd

Sceptile

Mona

Matt from Wii Sports
Ganon
PROS:
  • Iconic Zelda character
  • Still fits the Triforce trio pattern
CONS:
  • Not as much bases left to cover from his era
  • Ancient Armor Mii would most likely come with a Zelda character, not as a general bonus
Overall: Maybe next time

Redd
PROS:
  • Recurring character in the series
  • New Horizons hit it big
CONS:
  • Pass decided too early to gauge NH's success
  • New Horizons already got a Spirit Event
  • More likely to add Tom Nook first
Overall: Not really feeling it

Sceptile
PROS:
  • Fairly popular Pokemon
  • Represents Gen 3
CONS:
  • Lacks recency
  • Not much incentive to push Gen 3
Overall: Maybe next time

I'll do your other requests later. Next time, only one character, please. I can only evaluate so many at once before I start tiring
 

Miles of SmashWiki

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Its definitely a start. It and Cadence of Hyrule suggest they're starting to become a bit more comfortable with it gradually.
I mean there's also Mario + Rabbids (Ubisoft), Pokken Tournament (Bandai Namco), Hyrule and FE Warriors (Koei Tecmo), etc. Those are more big-name developers but the overall point is that Nintendo seems pretty comfortable nowadays working with outside developers on their IPs.

Even just for ports, Twilight Princess HD was outsourced to an Australian dev, while DKCR and Xenoblade were ported to 3DS by an American dev which had also worked on Pilotwings Resort.
 

DarthEnderX

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Newcomer thread, you can hold me to this. If a Gen 8 Pokemon makes it as DLC, I will not only make a Gru moveset, but also an entire Despicable Me-themed challenger pack.
Why is YOUR punishment also a punishment for us?

To be fair, Geno's Mii Costume coming back was pretty obvious in hindsight.

Well, for me, anyways. I figured it out tge moment Heihachi's came back. It was a matter of when, not if.
I think a lot of people knew it. But people were at least hoping he'd get a Sans upgrade.
 
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