Y'know it's funny. I'm one of those who fully believes that assist trophies can't be upgraded to playable characters. I'm also somewhat of a general hater of the Sonic franchise in general. But I feel like in the hypothetical scenario that we do get an echo pass, then Shadow will make the cut.
The main reason I feel like assists won't become playable, is that from a marketing perspective, people like new and exciting things. So if they're going to expend the effort to make a full new character, it's not going to be simply re-using assets from an assist and upgrading it, which might make some people feel cheated for paying full price of a character.
An echo DLC would probably be priced cheaper than a full character. Shadow also kind of hits that sweet spot of being hugely popular while also being a relatively easy concept to work onto an echo, just paint sonic black, give him some new run animation and possibly replace his down B with something like Bayonetta's.
You know, I Disagree with everything you said here, But I do like Good arguments and you did give some reasoning to why you don't think Assists will be playable that's not just based on precedent, which has been one of the things that's been consistently broken in this Fighter Pass
I could see the logic here. There are other potential candidates that don't have Full 3D Assets in the game already, that won't have people shouting that they are being scammed out of their money, since some people do believe that promoting an Assist doesn't take much time, and that Nintendo is just holding back these characters just because.
At the same time though, There's still alot of people that want to see Characters like Waluigi, Shadow, Isaac, Skull Kid, Shovel Knight, etc, much more than people would be mad. Like I'm sure Nintendo knew that Byleth wouldn't go over well, and yet they thought the Positives outweighed the negatives and went with it anyway. It's probably the same situation here, and here's why
-While Promoted Assists still need to have the time it takes to make a full character, because they already do have 3D Assets to re-use in the game already, it makes the process easier than characters with no 3D Asset in the game. We have been seeing that Assist Assets can be re-used for playable elements, as Bomberman's costume is his Assist model over the Mii Brawler Skeleton.
-Alot of the Popular Assists have their own merit for joining, that should be considered. Characters like Waluigi, Shadow, Isaac, Skull Kid, Shovel Knight, & Knuckles are either Iconic, Popular, Requested, or a combination of the 3.
-I guess for the speculation community, there would be no more vitriol about the Assist rule,
Now more onto Shadow, Shadow is not just Black Sonic. People defend characters like all the Fire Emblem characters or the Dragon Quest Heroes because to some people they look like characters already in abundance in the game already, but that they shouldn't be judged based off their Initial Apperance. This is all true
Yet Shadow kind of gets overlooked because of his Similarities in look to Sonic, despite the fact that he has alot of Design elements that are different from Sonic...and we're also talking about Shadow here, who's a hugely recognizable character anyway. It's like dismissing Luigi since he's just Green Mario, it's not that simple
Now granted, I'll admit that there is more in favor of Shadow being too similar to Sonic than the whole "Anime Sword Fighter thing" because Shadow has played like Sonic in some Sonic games. However this Same thing isn't nearly put on Tails and Knuckles, who have also played like Sonic in some Sonic games too. It's kind of Hypocritical I would say
Shadow as an echo still could theoretically work, but I Heavily doubt that Shadow would just be an echo, and he's much more likely to be his own character, for these reasons
-Sega has to approve of a Shadow echo. While Shadow has played like Sonic in some games, that doesn't mean the conversion will work to Smash. Sonic is a different type of game from Smash. Even in the games where Shadow plays like Sonic, either in Cutscenes or Boss Fights, He heavily shows off his Chaos powers, and he's the only character currently that shows off Chaos abilities these days. there's also the fact that Shadow's Personality does not jive with the type of moves Sonic does, so I doubt they want him to be an echo
-Shadow has enough Merit to be his own character. He's an Iconic, Popular character both within his series and in Smash requests, and he's still heavily relevant to his Franchise as well, With Sonic being relevant to gaming despite all the hiccups in the series. He's also has shown off abilities that would separate him not just from Sonic, but also from the rest of the cast
I stress the merit thing because people have in the past said that Shadow would only be an echo because Dark Samus was one, despite how Dark Samus does not have as much merit to join Smash on her own compared to Shadow
-Even with minimal changes, Shadow would probably have to be balanced around the rest of the cast because of how Sonic's Moveset is. Sonic's Moveset is heavily votatile and even Small changes can drastically change the balance of the character. giving a character like Sonic a counter that slows down time would Heavily change how you fight against Shadow as an echo.
-Plus, with how people say Sonic's Moveset is underwhelming, boring, or annoying to fight, I really doubt people would Really want Shadow as an echo fighter of Sonic, because I don't think people want a copy of a moveset that has been as critized as Sonic's
Now whether you believe Shadow has a chance or not is up to you. I know most people here really don't think Shadow has a shot. I actually believe I'm the only one here that's actively predicting him in Fighter Pass 2, and I think that's also shared on other websites like Gamefaqs and Discord. I only know like one other person that believes Shadow will be in Fighter Pass 2.
I'm just giving my side of everything