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    Following Sora's announcement as the final fighter coming to Smash Bros. Ultimate, we've got an update on the future of the Newcomer Speculation forum. Please check it out!

    The Future of Ultimate Newcomer Speculation

Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

Nekoo

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Wait...I just realized, what if Kirby doesn't have a Keyblade, but just bright colorful light just to be able to quickly recognize the spell he's using with the colors, because he might not have the menu popping up on top of his stock icon?
 

Aboyd

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For Sora's Event Tourney, since Kingdom Hearts is a big crossover game, I'd like to see the theme be around Guest Characters. For the image, I'd like to see a parody of the Kingdom Hearts All in One and Melody of Memory box arts, but with the frames filled with the guest characters. The name of the tourney?
"Be Our Guest"
 

N3ON

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This might be an interesting thread to go back and read through, now that Ultimate's roster is complete

And just keep in mind that, yes, basically everybody in the thread was wrong about at least something - but don't be too snarky. Try to remember how things were back when this was current. If we made a thread about predicting Smash 6 right now, we'd be just as wrong.
 

Noipoi

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This might be an interesting thread to go back and read through, now that Ultimate's roster is complete

And just keep in mind that, yes, basically everybody in the thread was wrong about at least something - but don't be too snarky. Try to remember how things were back when this was current. If we made a thread about predicting Smash 6 right now, we'd be just as wrong.
People seriously predicted Inkling

C5B8D21E-105F-4FF9-ACA9-542E4C0D20D2.jpg
 

Shroob

Sup?
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For Sora's Event Tourney, since Kingdom Hearts is a big crossover game, I'd like to see the theme be around Guest Characters. For the image, I'd like to see a parody of the Kingdom Hearts All in One and Melody of Memory box arts, but with the frames filled with the guest characters. The name of the tourney?
"Be Our Guest"
You son of a *****, that's genius
 

Nekoo

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This might be an interesting thread to go back and read through, now that Ultimate's roster is complete

And just keep in mind that, yes, basically everybody in the thread was wrong about at least something - but don't be too snarky. Try to remember how things were back when this was current. If we made a thread about predicting Smash 6 right now, we'd be just as wrong.
Please, never have anyone in the smash community be in charge of the roster..
 

Geno Boost

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Star Hill. Why do you ask?
This might be an interesting thread to go back and read through, now that Ultimate's roster is complete

And just keep in mind that, yes, basically everybody in the thread was wrong about at least something - but don't be too snarky. Try to remember how things were back when this was current. If we made a thread about predicting Smash 6 right now, we'd be just as wrong.
Back when people thought the roster will have cuts and be small good thing Sakurai went beyond people expectations
 

DarthEnderX

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5,786
If I remember correctly, Simple and Clean is tied up in an absolute legal nightmare that probably just wasn't worth using outside of the main trailer since that would be considerably easier than its full inclusion. They were already moving heaven and earth for Sora to begin with, so something had to give elsewhere.
Well for one thing, it's not actually from a video game.

The original song, Hikari, was just a song off one of Utada Hikaru's albums that was licensed for KH. It's not a KH song.

It's like if Marcus Phoenix got in Smash and they licensed Mad World for the trailer, but not the game.

None of the pokemon other than Pichu play at all like each other and thats completely and objectively unrelated to their typing at all, they are amongst the most unique fighters in the roster. Likewise, if they added Umbreon for example it would play nothing like Greninja, if they added Electvire it would play nothing like Pikachu, if they added Arcanine it would play nothing like Charizard etc.
Basically: "They play unique, so nothing else matters."

Except, if they added Pokemon of different types, they would ALSO have played completely differently. If they added Decidueye it would play nothing like Greninja, if they added Garchomp it would play nothing like Charizard, etc.

So there's no reason not to do both.

Type is 100% irrelevant and only serves to satisfy some bizarre, unjustifiable dopamine of filling imaginary patterns that make no difference in a concrete sense
Yep. And you will be fighting against that argument until the day you die, because it is never going away.

They had 13 Xehanorts to choose from and not a single one made it in.
That's not true. Terra and Xion were both Xehanorts.

They should sell it as a wallpaper.
Sadly, it's not the right aspect ratio for that.

They should rearrange the characters so it is.
 
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Geno Boost

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I like how every old 3rd party company (Sega, Namco, Konami, Square-enix) got a new rep (including Ken)
do you feel it’s gonna happen again next time to all of them if every company comes back especially with SNK and Disney getting a new rep too even if it’s an echo?
 

ForsakenM

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I mean... Yes The Geno Support Thread got raided pretty heavy and there were like factions within the thread that either accepted The Gospel According to FMOI or didn't.... I remember clearly having to deal with that crap and I wasn't even in the thread lol just had to keep vigilante due to sheer amount of junk that ensued from all toxicity....

But as for how the posters from this thread behaved and interacted with the Geno thread before and after it was remade well I can't speak to that. Once the thread was remade and the final clamps were put in place to end the hostile environment there, it became just another character support thread. But I'm sure other posters here can vouch for their own behavior during that time.

(why is this important btw? Like is this something that weighs heavily on you ForsakenM ForsakenM ?)
v
I'll preface this by saying that I do find myself sympathetic towards avid Geno supporters. I can totally understand having thought this was his big chance, and not taking it the best seeing him get costumed again, without even so much as a full head. That's ****ed. I get it, and I'm not interested in childish gloating because he didn't make it. Getting burned like that sucks and I'm sorry. If I come off as biased here, that's probably why.

Now, I'm not sure what can really be said about the thread that hasn't been already. I think a lot of people just need to evaluate their behavior and try to manage next cycle better. There were outside instigators but there was also a vocal minority of individuals that felt entitled to be toxic and arrogant about their hopeful, simply because he happens to be a popular request. These same people were also not above stirring drama through naming names.
All we can really do is try not to let things end up that bad again. The blame game is a massive waste of time.

I don't think it was some innate trait of Geno fans specifically that caused the situation. The circumstances that just happened to surround Geno in particular merely brought out the worst in a lot of people - both supporters and detractors - when really, they should have handled it like adults.

^

It's basically just this that I want, but from certain individuals in this thread. There are people active right now who were active then who, through their behavior, propagated the tension and the drama. I dislike people who knowingly take part in something and then act as if only one side is to blame.

In addition, it keeps propagating the idea that Geno Fans were absolutely horrible en mass when it wasn't even nearly that bad, or that this was specifically egregious and stuff like this hasn't happened before when it has, or act like it was all the Geno Fans fault and only theirs when people from GameFAQs were so obsessed that they would stalk the thread just to mock us and celebrate when it wasn't Geno.

This wasn't a phenomenon. This wasn't something that happened just because of how Geno Fans be. Lots of people played a part in this, and any support group can have this happen to them, and if the next Newcomer Thread acts the same way as last time they could very likely repeat the cycle for a completely different support group if they don't embrace what they did wrong an approach it differently next time. Geno Fans have already learned this lesson, but very few people here who were involved have admitted the role they played.

Also Momotsuki Momotsuki I really appreciate your understanding of the entire situation. The only thing I disagree with is that the locking of the old thread and creating of the new didn't just fix the problem: it was done with poor planning and lasted too long at the lowest point Geno fans had been at after riding a very high wave for over a year, and thus it killed both the support thread's numbers for the new thread (it's basically a ghost town, I'm one of the few keeping it alive) and it actually hurt the site's activity for a while if not still seeing some of the effects of it.
 
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ForsakenM

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Messages
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Now i just imagined Sora's trailer but instead of Nintendo characters it's the nicktoon and instead of Sora it's Doug.
Very old response by now but I thought I'd drop it anyway.

Like, I know it isn't feasible, but **** man I would love for Doug to be there so I could fight as Quail Man.

Speaking of which, let's see if I have and easier time doing a Top Ten Most Wanted with NASB. Feel free to do your own! Past Me from while this post is being made says it REALLY is that hard as I was in high school in the mid-2000s and was mostly a CN/kids WB kid before then, so I have almost no attachment to a lot of these 2000s shows. Also they have already done a very good job with coverage in all honesty, much like base roster FighterZ. Also, this list doesn't include any characters from any leaks or datamining.

  1. ****ing Doug goddamn Funny with Quailman put in as much as possible and Porkchop in his moveset!
  2. Henry and June from Kablam!, with a moveset that references all the shows on Kablam!
  3. Daggett and Norbert from Angry Beavers, as a duo like Ren and Stimpy.
  4. Rudy and Snap from Chalk Zone as one character. "You gotta edge guard them Rudy!"
  5. Rocket Power in some form because, even if the show wasn't that good, it would still be a radical inclusion.
  6. El Tigre, not because I have a connection to the show, but because the premise seemed cool (young kid who's dad is a hero and grandpa is a villain, trying to figure out who he is) and I played a flash game of his long ago, and my autistic brain can't let go of "I will have my revenge!" and I want that line in this game.
  7. XJ-9 from My Life as a Teenage Robot. For the homies out there fighting for her. Man, already reached wanting characters for other people, gotta learn to be more selfish.
  8. Timmy Turner with Wanda and Cosmo floating around with him and part of his moveset. Also for the homies.
  9. The cow from that Back of the Barn show or whatever. Think he's called Otis. Apparently people actually want him, so by all means.
  10. Tak. People are actually asking for him as well, so that's a thing.
However, I also have a meme list.
  1. We always support the Hugh Nation here.
  2. Blue from Blue's Clues so I could beat people's ass while making Blue's Clues jokes about the fight. like saying that I 'found a clue' when I figure out what my opponent is doing. Only Steve is acceptable though, if any of the other hosts show up I'm not buying.
  3. Little Bear, for the right to bear arms and to educate how we do things in the forest.
  4. Franklin, for the legendary match-up against Little Bear. Been in the making for years.
  5. Either Winx Club or Monster High so that we have a goofy girly character in the game just absolutely slaying. Maybe Ginger from As Told By Ginger?
  6. Dora The Explorer so that the memes like "Can you spell 'bodied'?" can come to life.
  7. At least one Dreamworks crossover character, but I think the Penguins top the list even as much as I love Kung Fu Panda. Besides, KFP already got a Smash clone in Showdown of Legendary Legends, so he can wait.
 
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dream1ng

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 24, 2016
Messages
433
This wasn't a phenomenon. This wasn't something that happened just because of how Geno Fans be. Lots of people played a part in this, and any support group can have this happen to them, and if the next Newcomer Thread acts the same way as last time they could very likely repeat the cycle for a completely different support group if they don't embrace what they did wrong an approach it differently next time. Geno Fans have already learned this lesson, but very few people here who were involved have admitted the role they played.
I've been lurking and I just gotta speak up on this continued dissonance.

It could happen but it probably won't unless some other fanbase falls victim to a figurehead who got the taste of admiration and then began spinning bull**** for two years and having the fanbase lap it up while everyone who was shouting that the emperor wasn't wearing clothes was chased out of the village.

This was permitted to carry on to the growing detriment of rationality and the understandable irritation of everyone who could see people vesting their hopes in shoddy references. Just like how everyone, Geno fans included, feel when people circulate claims by SamusHunter or Zippo or Hotgirlvideos69 or other clout chasers who obviously lack credibility. When one person posts one of their allegations, the complaints last a whole page or more. Now imagine that but for two years and with dozens of people insisting they're either a) credible or b) just speculating. Which contradict each other, but whatever. That's what you were told.

Other sites rightfully saw Fatmanonice as being one in the same with them. Which he is, and was. It might be one of the only things I've ever seen GameFAQs, resetera, reddit and 4chan all agree on.

It's not really the fault of the Geno fans for being taken for a ride, you were lead to believe the journey ended in the destination you wanted, which made it appealing to get on board. It's a shame so many people were so gullible, and questioning the driver was likely to get you thrown from the car, but intentions, as they usually are, began innocuously enough.

Think about it though. It's no coincidence that virtually none of the people without investment to Geno fell prey to the falsehoods being espoused in that thread. When the lure isn't for you, you can see clearly.

Though the other side did eventually lose their patience and handled Geno fans with frustration, resentment and mockery; for their revolving door of weird theories, for their deference to a fraud, for their strange misplaced confidence that Geno was always just around the corner, often necessitating a thread lock when that didn't materialize, for the fact that criticism of any of it seemingly summoned a supporter who would relay it back to the Geno, and because, like now, arguing about all that regularly monopolized the conversation. The friction wasn't pretty and there was a lot from each side that wasn't warranted. GameFAQs' strange fascination with the comings and goings of the Geno thread being a prime example. But GameFAQs is kinda ****, and they thrive on negativity. If it isn't Geno, some character is being actively disparaged. The division didn't begin from those opposed to the emergent behaviour of the Geno thread though, it began with that behaviour.

Me, I have nothing but respect for the supporters who kept their heads above water during that whole debacle. It was a lot.

Everyone here is being too polite to say it, and they probably want to let sleeping dogs lie, but that's a huge part of why this **** went down. It wasn't the only factor but it was definitely a major one. Before that happened the fanbase was maybe a little idealistic, but pretty unproblematic, all things considered.
 

Momotsuki

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Uh....

lol
I believe this person has also went on to disapprove of bringing everyone back now that it did in fact happen. Specifically on the RTC thread. Not trying to stir drama or anything, I just think that offers some insight onto this post in particular, seeing it get brought up.
I don't really get it, honestly. Unironic anti-EIH folks just don't make sense to me.
 
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Cap'n Jack

Smash Lord
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Apr 23, 2015
Messages
1,316
Since I'm currently in the habit of rushing to post my final Speculation pieces about Ultimate, I'm here to hit y'all with another one. I present:

DaybreakHorizon's Smash Ultimate Speculation Essay Tier List

  • I don't have much in the way of acknowledgements for this piece, since it's largely a copy/paste from a Discord essay I wrote, but I would like to acknowledge and sincerely thank y'all for the support I've received for my writing over the last 3 years. I don't think I'd have been able to keep up my writing and critical thinking skills as well as I've been able to if it weren't for this outlet, and it's been fun being able to research and write about different characters over the course of speculation.
I've written a lot about Smash Ultimate over the past 3 or so years. To give an approximation, I've written around 50,000 words across 12 major essays and essay series. As a hobbyist writer and essayist, Smash has been my primary outlet since DLC speculation began in December 2018, and I'd like to take this opportunity to reflect a bit on each essay, where I was at when writing them, and how I think they hold up today.

Even though they weren't enough to get me on the Smashboards Writing Team (apparently I didn't provide enough writing samples even though at the time I had like 7 essays in my signature which is literally available on my profile NO I AM NOT MAD), I think this'll be a fun little endeavor.

Also it's like no work at all since I did most of the work last December and posted it to Discord, so I'm essentially just bringing this over here and adding some minor content. Low effort for free internet likes to boost my fragile ego :p. The essays are ranked within tier, as well as across tiers, which will be indicated with standard numerical rankings. I'll be excluding my recent reflection pieces since they're a completely different type of essay as compared to my argumentative essays, and as such can't be ranked by the same criteria. Just to cover that base, they'd generally float around the Great or Good tiers, if only because both were somewhat of rush jobs. With that being said, let's get into it!
These essays are simply my best. They're incredibly strong arguments, make points that are still relevant to this day, and are works I'm personally proud of.

1. The Second Square Enix Character Argument
My magnum opus of Smash Speculation essays. Each essay is quality (since I worked on them over the course of like 3 weeks), with the Sora essay probably being my best piece period. The Bravely essay is no slouch, and the Geno essay also bears mention because it was probably the most comprehensive, unbiased argument about Geno and addressed both sides equally. Also, let it be known I ****ing called Sephiroth in this essay, even if I ranked FF as a series lower than Bravely, Nier, and TWEWY.

2. We Never Saw It Coming: The Game Awards as a Case Study for Doubt
I hold a soft spot for this piece. Despite it being incredibly early in my writing career–only my second long-form speculation piece–and it clocks in on the shorter side of things. Despite that, it's concise and to the point, and I believe the point it makes about not trusting insiders at their word was relevant for the entirety of Smash Ultimate speculation and will be relevant during speculation of the next Smash Bros. game, so that we don't allow clout-chasing insiders to gain the influence and promote toxicity within the fanbase as they did this last cycle.

3. The Case for Gordon Freeman
Logically speaking I think this is one of, if not my strongest piece since I approached it with the mindset of an argumentative philosophy essay (I actually just wrote a 2300 word one so go figure). A really interesting character to argue for and I loved diving into the evidence to create my arguments. Also, it had impeccable timing to defeat ****ty Imran Khan speculation and introduce a fun new topic. Gordon is a critically underrated character and now that Sora's completely blown the door open for" impossible" character picks, I think Nintendo approaching Valve–or even vice versa–to get him in Smash is far more likely than any of us thing.

4. The Case Minecraft Steve and the "Smash Bubble" Effect
More than anything I appreciate this piece's purpose and lasting relevancy; A scathing critique of the core fandom's over-reliance on fan polls as a means of assessing a character's likelihood that managed to stick a bit as a fanbase term and a correct prediction before Steve was a popular speculation pick. You can't ask for much else in my opinion. Also it's just a well-written piece in how I lay out my arguments, though I feel like I could've elaborated on Nintendo and Microsoft's relationship and Steve's popularity outside the core fanbase.
These essays are some of my more quality writing and hold up well, but aren't as good as the above essays.

5. Characters to Look Out For: Don-chan
Introduces the first Characters to Look Out For series of essays really well. Argument wise it's really solid, and Don-chan wass a really interesting dark horse pick to argue for. I definitely had motivation here and it shows in how strong the argument is in my opinion. Also has what is probably the best quote from any essay of mine:

As a whole, this is definitely one of my more humorous essays, and as a whole it makes me smile.

6. Characters to Look Out For: 2B
Just a really strong essay, which shows in how I just incorporated it into my Second Ultimate Square Enix character argument and simply added onto it when discussing 2B. It's a very comprehensive argument on 2B, her notoriety, and why/how she could get into Smash. For a straightforward character argument, this essay is probably my best.

7. Characters to Look Out For: Layton & Jonesy
The Layton essay is much stronger than the Jonesy piece, as it goes deeper and discusses the European Market and Level-5 as a company, both of which are compelling topics that probably could've used more detail than what they got. The Jonesy essay is honestly like a bonus compared to the main dish that is the Layton essay, as it's just a collection of points for Jonesy in Smash rather than a comprehensive argument. Either way both are solid, and together they make this piece strong.

Yes, this tier is essentially just my first Characters to Look Out For series, but to be fair it was a really good series in my opinion.
These essays are good, but are lacking in some way, whether it be in content or the writing process.

8. The Definitive Case for Lloyd Irving
One of my earlier pieces and probably my most straightforward. I think it's most emblematic of Good Tier because it lacks the finer technique of my newer pieces, nor does it have an interesting topic to set it apart like my essays on The Game Awards and Minecraft Steve (being Insiders in the community . It's a longform speculation piece that accomplishes its purpose and nothing else.

9. The Second Set of Characters to Look Out For in Ultimate DLC
A solid series of essays carried by my technical knowledge of writing, but they're clearly lacking to me given the negative amount of motivation they were written with. I think I was supposed to write on like 3 additional characters (I can remember Sol Badguy and Kiryu specifically) but ended up cutting them because I was so burnt out on speculation and just wanted to leave Smashboards. It's a definite shame because each of the characters I wrote about are interesting in their own right, and League of Legends was a topic I'd been looking to write about for months. I know that if I'd had more motivation the LoL essay definitely could've been one of my best essays given my interest in the topic, and it's disappointing to now see my writing live up to that potential.

10. In Defense of Phoenix Wright
I'll be real and say that this was half a spite piece because I just really didn't like Scoliosis Jone's article on Capcom characters and had some petty grudge against him for a reason I can't remember. It was petty and leaves a bad taste in my mouth. The argument is good, but I approached writing it from the wrong angle, and I don't think I'll ever be able to look past that.
By essay standards, they're probably good. By my own standards, they're my weakest works.

11. The Gran(d) Case for Granblue
I'm gonna admit this was written with big bias-tinted goggles. I kinda just wanted to talk about Granblue and thought I'd do so in big speculation essay form. Half of the essay is me explaining to Smashboards why Granblue is cool and the other half is a minor argument. It's kinda like this:

Which is fine, but it does not hold up as an argumentative essay, especially compared to my other, better works. I definitely could've put more effort into the actual argument part of the essay.

12. The Ultimate Square Enix Argument
Probably a controversial placement since it's my first piece and it's what essentially put me on the map, but honestly this is my weakest work. For one, it's plagued by grammatical errors such as block paragraphs, run-on sentences, and comma splicing—it's just ugly to look at in places. The Dragon Quest essay is the only redeeming part of this piece, as it's a rather comprehensive (if not biased) argument.

Speaking of bias, it runs rampant in this piece as well. There's clear bias for Dragon Quest and Sora and against Geno. I only really write on these three characters and the other ones don't get nearly as much attention as they should've. It's an incredibly informal piece as well and doesn't take itself too seriously, which combined with the rampant bias undermines the entire work.

As I said in intro of the Second Square Character Argument, I wrote that work partially to prove to myself that I could do better after learning more about writing in general and finding my own voice and style as a writer. I think that work makes up for a lot of the shortcomings. It's good if you want a point of comparison with which to show how much I've improved as a writer over the course of two years—compare it to the Gordon Freeman essay for the most effect—but otherwise it is not good™.
I don't have much in the form of closing thoughts since I said my piece in my reflection on Sora. This was a bit of an impulse write since it was easy (the most effort went into formatting and minor grammatical fixes), but I figured having it here for posterity would be nice. Overall it's strange thinking I have 12 major essays, some of which are large essay series. This is definitely something I'll have to bring to my grave with me, at the very least when dating, because no girl is going to find 50,000 words written on Smashboards attractive (unfortunately). Overall I still stand by the rankings and their reasoning, but it was an absolute joy to write each and every single one of them. To close, I'll repeat what I said in the acknowledgements: I'm glad to have had this outlet, and again I'd like to thank y'all for the support my written works have received over the piece.

Now, if you'll excuse I'm going to go watch Sora's trailer again before working on the homework I've been procrastinating on this entire time.
If you want a TL;DR, this is essentially it:
View attachment 334135

(couldn't help making the joke)

Definitely give it a read if you have the time though. This'll be my last speculation piece for a good while (this time for real), but like I said previously I'll be around.

Now, back to your regularly scheduled...Geno discussion by the looks of things...😐
It always goes back to Geno, huh?
Are you where the Smash Bubble term came from?
 
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CroonerMike

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 6, 2013
Messages
1,876
This might be an interesting thread to go back and read through, now that Ultimate's roster is complete

And just keep in mind that, yes, basically everybody in the thread was wrong about at least something - but don't be too snarky. Try to remember how things were back when this was current. If we made a thread about predicting Smash 6 right now, we'd be just as wrong.
Ahhh yes, Linkle brings me back to when everyone thought that if it’s a new Nintendo character, they will
Be in smash bros. Good times.
 

Megadoomer

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There are canon implications for Kirby being unable to wield a Keyblade but being able to wield the Mondado, Failnaught, and Ragnell and I think that's hilarious.
I'm assuming there's some bit of Kirby or Kingdom Hearts lore to indicate that Kirby is somehow wielding the Keyblade in its purest, most powerful form.
 

Ura

Smash Legend
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Feb 4, 2014
Messages
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SW-2772-0149-6703
This might be an interesting thread to go back and read through, now that Ultimate's roster is complete

And just keep in mind that, yes, basically everybody in the thread was wrong about at least something - but don't be too snarky. Try to remember how things were back when this was current. If we made a thread about predicting Smash 6 right now, we'd be just as wrong.
As the thread creator, wow major cringe in hindsight lol.

What can I say, it was a different time. We were all oblivious to what was to come. A simple time indeed.
 

Garteam

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Canada, eh?
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Garteam
"Hey, here're these predictions for Smash 5 right after Smash for Wii U/3DS concluded their DLC development. I know a lot of predictions look funny with how the roster has evolved during Ultimate, but let's remember we have the benefit of hindsight here."

Thread proceeds to snark about people making wrong predictions because we have the benefit of living 5 years in the future

It's a good thing this thread has never been wrong before. Now, if you don't mind I have to go play as the fighter that ended the first pass, Dante, and our E3 2021 reveal, Master Chief.
 

Firox

Smash Master
Joined
Jan 7, 2019
Messages
3,328
Man.
I still cant believe I was one of the like...3 persons saying he's bring back everyone pre-announcement/reveal
I mean, to be fair, we had two games' worth of precedent for character cutting. With how huge the roster was getting, character cuts seemed inevitable. Hell, even now, it seems that most people are fairly sure that the next Smash will end up cutting fighters, and to be frank, unless Nintendo really busts their hump, I think Smash will eventually go the way of Pokemon, being forced to inevitably cut characters due to the sheer logistical nightmare it would be program and secure the rights for 100+ characters. At some point, the franchise is going to hit critical mass if it hasn't already.
 
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Momotsuki

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endleSSS
With regards to predicting no cuts+EIH... as some did...


Alice and Bob talk about the weather. The forecasts all say it's going to rain. Alice stubbornly insists that it will not rain despite this. Not because she's a meteorologist herself, but because she just doesn't like the rain. So that's what she wants, and so she's dying on that hill.
Bob laughs and reminds her that it will in fact rain, as per the many forecasts.

It doesn't rain.

Hindsight bias is one thing, but if you were right in advanced.. as some were...
My main question... were those that predicted EIH prior to Ultimate's reveal rational to do so? Does having been right have any bearing on that?
 
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Sucumbio

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With regards to predicting no cuts+EIH... as some did...


Alice and Bob talk about the weather. The forecasts all say it's going to rain. Alice stubbornly insists that it will not rain despite this. Not because she's a meteorologist herself, but because she just doesn't like the rain. So that's what she wants, and so she's dying on that hill.
Bob laughs and reminds her that it will in fact rain, as per the many forecasts.

It doesn't rain.

Was Alice thus the reasonable one?
Ooo nice brain teaser.

I would say Alice did not make a reasonable prediction but rather a lucky one because the data suggested rain was forecast. It turned out she was right but at the same time her prediction was understandably dubious. But then again this is why weather forecasting is one of the few jobs you can be wrong and still have a job lol. Must be nice...
 

Momotsuki

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Y'know, Sora was specified as the ballot's most requested newcomer.
What are the odds the winner of the ballot was one of the cut veterans? Snake and Wolf come to mind as fast contenders. I could totally see either of those two having topped it.
Could have the cut veterans' ballot performance been what inspired EIH?

Even beyond the Bayonetta scam and the Sora not-scam, it's fun to think about how much influence the ballot likely had.
 
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Nekoo

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I mean, my reasoning for why there wouldn't be any cut was sound. Maybe I'll go back to find my post but I clearly remember something along the line of "No way they would cut characters, or someone like Cloud, when the time of devs would mean they already were planning the next game when releasing him for smash 4."

Which...While being a forecast, ended up being quite a ****ing good one in insight and a balsy move since we did learn that Smash ultimate main document was done literally the day of the final smash 4 presentation.

EDIT: LMAO FOUND ONE

1634141929163.png


I still have like three more like this, where I discuss how the timeline means there probably was no cut at all
 
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Hydreigonfan01

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Y'know, Sora was specified as the ballot's most requested newcomer.
What are the odds the winner of the ballot was one of the cut veterans? Snake and Wolf come to mind as fast contenders. I could totally see either of those two having topped it.
Could have the cut veterans' ballot performance been what inspired EIH?

Even beyond the Bayonetta scam and the Sora not-scam, it's fun to think about how much influence the ballot likely had.
Yeah, Snake was the most requested veteran and probably by a mile.
 

Momotsuki

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Yeah, Snake was the most requested veteran and probably by a mile.
Mhm, but I moreso mean that I think he may have beaten not only other cut veterans, but also any newcomers. It feels entirely possible to me.
The choice to have Snake be the face of EIH certainly indicates that he did very well on the ballot, I'd say.
 

Nekoo

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Mhm, but I moreso mean that I think he may have beaten not only other cut veterans, but also any newcomers. It feels entirely possible to me.
The choice to have Snake be the face of EIH certainly indicates that he did very well on the ballot, I'd say.
Irc we already know that Veterant did amazingly well, which is why EVERYONE IS HERE happened
Now, if it did better than newcomers? I'm not sure. I can see Snake do better than some newcomers like Chrom and Dark Samus...Which we knew were popular ballot pick
But Snake doing better than Sora/Ridley/K Rool/Banjo when we know Sora topped them all?
I'm...Not sure at all.
 

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Irc we already know that Veterant did amazingly well, which is why EVERYONE IS HERE happened
Now, if it did better than newcomers? I'm not sure. I can see Snake do better than some newcomers like Chrom and Dark Samus...Which we knew were popular ballot pick
But Snake doing better than Sora/Ridley/K Rool/Banjo when we know Sora topped them all?
I'm...Not sure at all.
I would absolutely be willing to bet that Snake did better than Ridley and maybe even Banjo. The Ice Climbers, Snake, and Wolf were 100% the most requested veterans, and we know veterans took a lot of the top spots based on what Sakurai said. Even Ridley had to contend with those who thought voting for him was a waste due to his boss role existing, while Snake didn't have that.

Basically, if Snake wasn't in the top five at the very lowest, I'd be incredibly surprised.
 
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