I`ve been thinking a lot about Smash speculation today, mostly cause I was bored, and I`m seeing a lot of patterns between the waves of dlc. Because Nintendo/Sakurai probably wants to target certain demographics with Smash inclusions, they probably have certain criteria in mind when picking characters. Since fighter pass one and the Smash4 dlc already sold really well, it would probably make sense for Smash dlc to continue to appeal to those demographics. Anyways, I made up these categories I think all current dlc characters fall into. I know there are probably some other categories that aren't on here or that I didn't think of but these are the ones I thought were the most consistent and made the most sense to me.
Playstation Characters
Characters who are more associated with popular Playstation games and don't have much of a connection or history with Nintendo. Unexpected out of left field picks that are meant to make Playstation fans want to buy a Smash game. This doesn't really apply to other Nintendo competitors, like Xbox, as much simply because Nintendo and Playstation dominate the Japanese console market; this is also a similar reason why these characters come from popular Japanese games (no Crash Bandicoot, yet...)
-Cloud who represented the at the time Playstation exclusive Final Fantasy VII
-Joker who represents Persona 5
-Sephiroth who represents the recently released Final Fantasy VII remake (part 1 of 24)
Fan Favourites
Long time fan favourites that appeal to current Smash fans and encourage them to buy dlc. That might be pretty obvious, but an important factor I've been considering is that the Smash character ballot might still be used to choose these characters. The Smash Ballot is more than a few years old, and the speculation landscape may have changed a lot since, but it's still probably the best source of information to determine which characters are popular with fans. Even if there is a lot of support for certain characters that can be seen over social media, it would be hard for Nintendo to quantify support for those characters or how receptive a majority of fans would be towards those characters. It's also not possible to know how much support a character actually got during the Smash Ballots, but I think fan ballots and intuition can be used to make somewhat good guesses.
-Bayonetta, who may have won the ballot possibly...
-Hero, or Erdrick more specifically who was probably pretty popular on the Japanese side of the Ballot
-Banjo and Kazooie
-Steve? It's hard to determine but he does come up pretty frequently on fanmade Smash Ballots and his popularity would make sense
Fighting Game Characters
Characters who appeal to a large amount of general fighting game fans. Probably characters who attract people who are more interested in other, non-Smash, fighting games. I'm less certain about this category because these characters might be able to fit into fan favourites, and there's only two.
-Ryu
-Terry
Promotional Characters
Characters whose main purpose is to promote a specific Nintendo game/franchise, unlike other characters whose inclusion is meant to promote Smash dlc. Controversial characters some may refer to as "shill picks."
-Corrin
-Byleth
-Min Min who I'd call a promotional character rather than a fighting game character. She may be from a fighting game, but its a very different kind of game that doesn't have the same appeal as Street Fighter or Fatal Fury. Also, I think her inclusion did much more to promote ARMS to Smash fans than the other way around.
Anyways, just something I was thinking a lot about today and thought might be interesting.
Some thoughts
-Steve I would say is a Combination of everything on this list, including the Fan Demand, as I'm sure many of the 1.8 million people that voted on the ballot (which is WAY More than the hardcore fandom) like Minecraft and wanted to see it represented
-If Hero was considered a popular pick for Japan, I would also add Sephiroth to that list as well perhaps
-Min-Min might have been trying to promote to the Hardcore Fighting game crowd perhaps
-On the appeal to Hardcore Fighting games audience, it makes sense because as Smash is a Fighting game, There's gonna be alot of Fighting game players that play Smash. Getting characters from the Traditional side also furthers to appeal to people that are apprehensive of trying out a Non-Traditional Fighting game.
I think it's also very useful that Fighting game characters already have movesets ready for Fighting. It makes the Moveset conception easier to deal with, at least with knowning how to animate everything. Implementing the mechanics could be a challenge, but overall it's an advantage these characters
It's also kind of similar to the idea of Platformer characters, since there is alot of platforming in Smash. and with RPG's, it's because RPG's usually have Protags and characters get attached to, and Smash is all about pitting the characters together.
RPG's and Fighting game characters have dominated the DLC Character spread. Steve, Banjo, and Bayonetta were the only characters that strayed from the RPG and Fighting game dominance, and Bayonetta was the only character that added a genre not represented in Smash
I think we will definitely get another Fighting game Character, whether it's Chun-Li, Sol, Scorpion, or Ryu Hayabusa. The Ryu Amiibo theory might also be a point in this happening as well
With Lloyd missing, we might get another RPG Character as well. yes