The one thing I'm wondering about is what Natedrake said before the presentation
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This was in the comment thread about characters we won't be seeing join the fight anytime soon. He was adamant about these characters
-Dante
-Crash
-Sora
-Ryu Hayabusa
-Master Chief
-Other "Trending" Characters
Not happening. The only character he said has some sort of Chance was Waluigi, which is quite a response to say
I know Natedrake isn't perfect, and I don't recall him being privy to Smash Leaks, even though he said he was in the know of some of the charcaters in advance. In any case, if we did want to take his Word, I have to wonder what led to the Conclusion that Only Waluigi of these characters mentioned had some sort of chance
My guess is either and/or Combination of the following
-He know it isn't a Company that's new to Smash, in terms of Playable characters or Perhaps Miis. The fact that he discounted Ryu, despite Koei being a Japanese Company, and one close to Nintendo Would perhaps suggest whether Japanese or Western, it's not a New Company
-He knows it's a Nintendo character. Waluigi is Nintendo, but the other characters mentioned are 3rd party
-He Knows that the character is one that's "already in the game". I Imagine it's harder to tell the status of characters that are in Smash in some form, compared to characters that haven't made an appearance. If you hear a Character not present in Smash and Smash in the same connotation, Lightblubs start ringing out
One thing I've seen common among Leaks/Rumors is that while they might hear of a character, the exact situation of how that character is gonna be represented in the game is hard to tell.
One of the big reasons Paraleak Suggested Undertale as one of the Fighters in FP1 was because there was a Music track that was said to be negotiated for, and Up to this point, Music Tracks had not really accompanied the Mii costumes ingame.
I Remember Dante and Dovahkin being suggested as Potential fighters, and then look where they end up, as Mii Costumes
I think the Biggest Tell about whether a Character will show up as Playable or Not is whether they hear of Stages, More Music tracks than necessary, something that would only come with Playable characters. I know bringing him up might look sort of wonky, but it's necessary. Fatmanonice did apprantly hear about Three Houses Stages, and that should have tipped him off into Byleth perhaps being a character. It didn't end up that way, but it is what it is
I went on a Tangent, but the whole story is that If this is to be believed, and that names have come up as CP11 (which I'm sure they have), I Imagine that that none of the big tells of a Potential character (Stages, bunch of Music, Perhaps even Spirits) have come up
In my personal Opinion, it's looking likely to be a Character from a Franchise already in the game, or even perhaps a Character that's already in the game. I think in the cases of Characters or Franchises not represented, like Crash Bandicoot, Sora Kingdom Hearts, and Halo Master Chief, Hearing of Stages or other subsidiary characters as potential spirits would increase the chances of those characters actually being a thing, since they aren't in the game in any form, but it seems that nothing that would come as a Subsidiary for a Character coming to Smash Ultimate as Playable (with their Challenger pack) has been heard
This would drop the chances of something entirely new to smash, and would point in the direction of Something already in Smash. The thing to keep in mind with FP2 is that Steve is the only character that was previously unrelated to Smash. Min Min, Sephiroth, Pyra/Mythra, and Kazuya had some relation to Smash either through themselves or their Franchise being represented in some way, so it might be easier to Dress them in ambiguity since they have some sort of relation to Smash already