Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Mushroomguy12]

Like I always say: every video game character has at least one person who unironically wants them in Smash. Even the bad ones.

Step one: Create a brand new video game with original characters.

Step two: Never release it to the public so that only you have knowledge of your original characters.

Step three: Don’t want your original characters in Smash.

Step four: Profit. You have created video game characters that no one in the world wants in Smash.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I dunno but they seem to regardless.

Based upon what? There's no evidence to suggest Nintendo cares. Sakurai's own speakings of it before suggests he treats it as meaningful, and while outdated information, we have no updates to really suggest otherwise.

Show some evidence that they would care then. So far, the only things we have are precedent based upon no real information in itself, which is essentially a concidence.

 

[The Rhythm Theif]

Step one: Create a brand new video game with original characters.

Step two: Never release it to the public so that only you have knowledge of your original characters.

Step three: Don’t want your original characters in Smash.

Step four: Profit. You have created video game characters that no one in the world wants in Smash.

It's Monopoly. Invest inside some property. Start a corporation, make a logo, do it properly.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Based upon what? There's no evidence to suggest Nintendo cares. Sakurai's own speakings of it before suggests he treats it as meaningful, and while outdated information, we have no updates to really suggest otherwise.

Show some evidence that they would care then. So far, the only things we have are precedent based upon no real information in itself, which is essentially a concidence.

Previous statements might be outdated, but they've also never been contradicted, and I suspect they had a role to play in Min Min as a pick, as she doesn't make sense as the first an only pick.

As far as I'm concerned, Assist Trophy characters are off the table, and you cannot convince me otherwise until we actually get a promotion. In which case, I will be glad to be wrong.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Previous statements might be outdated, but they've also never been contradicted, and I suspect they had a role to play in Min Min as a pick, as she doesn't make sense as the first an only pick.

As far as I'm concerned, Assist Trophy characters are off the table, and you cannot convince me otherwise until we actually get a promotion. In which case, I will be glad to be wrong.

Yeah, they had no role with Min Min. We know the information. Yabuki wanted her. If he wanted Spring Man, either we wouldn't get an ARMS character or it'd be him instead. There's zero correlation to the AT and Min Min with no legitimate evidence to base it upon. Yabuki likes both characters. There's an actual huge popularity push that Min Min got that would make it logical for Yabuki to go towards her over Spring Man possibly, sure. There's also Sakurai stating his two personal picks would be Min Min or Ninjara. There's still no evidence that AT has a role. That's baseless. Sakurai completely not saying his AT factor(just that he wasn't the actual main character) is already something that we see isn't really useful information towards the AT factor. It can be easily interpreted as "I didn't really care about the AT thing anyway", which is why he explained the character in the first place. Even then, let's note that Spirits and Mii Costumes were not detrimental to the choices he made(Rex was almost part of the full character, but couldn't get in for technical reasons). Why do AT's stick out with the closest thing to evidence being a statement over 5 years ago that has no relation to Ultimate either way?

Thus, I see zero legitimate evidence Nintendo actually cared about the AT role at any point. This also means we don't know their opinions of AT's, but either way, we do know they care a lot about business and promoting various games too. If they'd ignore an entire notable NPC role(Spirits are actually notable, unlike Trophies), why would they not ignore an AT role? Min Min is not a legit example here as you have to actually put your own personal theory to make it work. You clearly can't prove it, so it does not help your argument or make for a good one. Headcanons are not evidence.

You don't need to prove Sakurai could say no, either. That's so far the only real evidence we have against them not happening, and we can't say it definitely applies to this game, just that it's pretty likely, especially with there being a total of one character left zero AT promotions.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

snip

Spring Man's role as an Assist Trophy was never mentioned, so no, we do not have all the facts.

I believe that were he not an Assist Trophy, he would have been the pick. You cannot convince me otherwise.

 

[blackghost]

Mario spin-offs are where Waluigi is playable, so where else would you go? Same goes for the vast majority of other available Mario characters, too, since they don't have their own games either. Captain Toad being a notable exception, I suppose.

There is no Mario Party or Mario Sports stage, and these games still have an abundance of music not yet in Smash. While spirits would be trickier, I think it would be doable, but still the weakest part of a Waluigi challenger pack, admittedly. But somehow I have the impression that the spirit board is considered the least interesting part of any challenger pack, anyway.

Actually when you look at the mario side chaarcter plenty of them have games or play major roles in mario mainline games.
yoshi, peach, bowser, baby luigi, baby mario, toad, toddette, to name some all have been playable in games. waluigi hasnt.

Fine ill lower the bar. lets say Waluigi doesnt need spirits. Music and stage still are mainstays of smash DLC releases. What tracks of music or stages are tied to Waluigi? you need something definitive to release the character with. that not up for debate.

 

[blackghost]

Previous statements might be outdated, but they've also never been contradicted, and I suspect they had a role to play in Min Min as a pick, as she doesn't make sense as the first an only pick.

As far as I'm concerned, Assist Trophy characters are off the table, and you cannot convince me otherwise until we actually get a promotion. In which case, I will be glad to be wrong.

minmin was picked becuase she was requested by the director of the game. and minmin is the director's favorite character. Remember this moment?

look who he picked. minmin also had the benefit of having more moveset variety with her kicks.

 

[Theguy123]

They aren't going to care about AT's in itself. Why would they?

by this logic they aren’t going to care to add banjo. Why would they…. Ohh wait

 

[chocolatejr9]

Step one: Create a brand new video game with original characters.

Step two: Never release it to the public so that only you have knowledge of your original characters.

Step three: Don’t want your original characters in Smash.

Step four: Profit. You have created video game characters that no one in the world wants in Smash.

Eh, in this day and age, it would get leaked eventually...

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

by this logic they aren’t going to care to add banjo. Why would they…. Ohh wait

You quoted it wrong.

There's no basis for this comparison. Banjo & Kazooie was directly stated by Phil Spencer as someone he would be glad to negotiate with Nintendo to get in. That's actual reason to care. The character is a massively popular gaming icon from a Nintendo era that did well on the ballot. That's an actual reason to care. Nintendo spent time to get in good with Microsoft, and Minecraft also led to BK getting in. It's not so much of a reason to care as there's actual reasons behind it. And even then, Microsoft is the one who got the advertisement for Xbox Gamepass, on their own systems only. So adding them did not lead to any new BK merchandise that helps Nintendo beyond the inevitable amiibo. It's clearly l lopsided. On the other hand, look at what they could get with Microsoft alone. So many deals and such. So why would they care? Because business actually brought good things for them and he was worth adding for multiple reasons.

How does this remotely correlate to them caring or not caring about AT's?

 

[Theguy123]

On the topic of wether assists decomfirm or not I personally don’t believe they do for 1 simple reason. Min mins trailer. They literally included spring man in both arms trailers. If assists deconfirmed then they’d have left him out of the trailers

 

[Sucumbio]

Step one: Create a brand new video game with original characters.

Step two: Never release it to the public so that only you have knowledge of your original characters.

Step three: Don’t want your original characters in Smash.

Step four: Profit. You have created video game characters that no one in the world wants in Smash.

Ha! I'm gonna go find one of those million dollar math problems and ask you to solve it cause that was just darn clever and that's the kinda out of the box thinking humanity needs.

@discussion on ... Wait what is it now... .......... .... Oh right ..no grr fine scroll up...hm.. f minmin ohhhhh but yeah Assist Trophy being a deconfirmation aggravates me cause Mac so ... Oh! Master Chief I prefer the beam sword in game but gunner is probably the safer choice for all around aesthetic.

 

[RoboFist]

Related but super unpopular opinion:

I don't really enjoy playing the "I don't want them in Smash" game. There's already too much negativity overall in this fandom and way too many great characters that are deconfirmed as it is. Even if franchises like Fire Emblem and Pokemon get another rep at the end of all this...yes, I'll be impossibly disappointed at such a tone-deaf choice, but the possibility for something unique is at least there for me. Even Fortnite, a game I actively dislike, could give us a rep with a fun moveset.

All that being said, now that Dante's deconfirmed, there are only three characters left in the entirety of video gamedom that would genuinely make me upset if they were the final DLC character.

The first being Waluigi.

 

[Sucumbio]

Related but super unpopular opinion:

I don't really enjoy playing the "I don't want them in Smash" game. There's already too much negativity overall in this fandom and way too many great characters that are deconfirmed as it is. Even if franchises like Fire Emblem and Pokemon get another rep at the end of all this...yes, I'll be impossibly disappointed at such a tone-deaf choice, but the possibility for something unique is at least there for me. Even Fortnite, a game I actively dislike, could give us a rep with a fun moveset.

All that being said, now that Dante's deconfirmed, there are only three characters left in the entirety of video gamedom that would genuinely make me upset if they were the final DLC character.

The first being Waluigi.

View attachment 324941

Why is Dante deconfirmed?

 

[Idon]

Why is Dante deconfirmed?

He got a mii costume like... a month ago.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Why is Dante deconfirmed?

Cause hes been beat by Cosplayers.

 

[Theguy123]

You quoted it wrong.

There's no basis for this comparison. Banjo & Kazooie was directly stated by Phil Spencer as someone he would be glad to negotiate with Nintendo to get in. That's actual reason to care. The character is a massively popular gaming icon from a Nintendo era that did well on the ballot. That's an actual reason to care. Nintendo spent time to get in good with Microsoft, and Minecraft also led to BK getting in. It's not so much of a reason to care as there's actual reasons behind it. And even then, Microsoft is the one who got the advertisement for Xbox Gamepass, on their own systems only. So adding them did not lead to any new BK merchandise that helps Nintendo beyond the inevitable amiibo. It's clearly l lopsided. On the other hand, look at what they could get with Microsoft alone. So many deals and such. So why would they care? Because business actually brought good things for them and he was worth adding for multiple reasons.

How does this remotely correlate to them caring or not caring about AT's?

My point was that if they care enough to add banjo who’s been irrelevant for decades then they if they want to they’ll add an AT to the roster

 

[Idon]

My point was that if they care enough to add banjo who’s been irrelevant for decades then they if they want to they’ll add an AT to the roster

Sounds like false equivalence to me.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Fine ill lower the bar. lets say Waluigi doesnt need spirits. Music and stage still are mainstays of smash DLC releases. What tracks of music or stages are tied to Waluigi? you need something definitive to release the character with. that not up for debate.

Waluigi Pinball, easy.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

My point was that if they care enough to add banjo who’s been irrelevant for decades then they if they want to they’ll add an AT to the roster

Oh, the other point. You sounded like they'd ignore an AT as is. Generally, short sentences aren't that useful of points.

As I said, Banjo is a lot more complicated that "lol relevance". He had a lot that let him get in. I wouldn't compare him to an AT situation anyway. Cause BK are pretty special circumstances that are hard to repeat.

 

[Perkilator]

On the topic of wether assists decomfirm or not I personally don’t believe they do for 1 simple reason. Min mins trailer. They literally included spring man in both arms trailers. If assists deconfirmed then they’d have left him out of the trailers

I'm pretty sure that's not how that works.

 

[warubyun]

Actually when you look at the mario side chaarcter plenty of them have games or play major roles in mario mainline games.
yoshi, peach, bowser, baby luigi, baby mario, toad, toddette, to name some all have been playable in games. waluigi hasnt.

Fine ill lower the bar. lets say Waluigi doesnt need spirits. Music and stage still are mainstays of smash DLC releases. What tracks of music or stages are tied to Waluigi? you need something definitive to release the character with. that not up for debate.

Why can't Waluigi and any eventual pack of his act as general spin-off representation? Why would everything have to directly pertain to him in particular? Sure, there are options, like e.g. Waluigi Pinball or Waluigi's Island for stages or Waluigi's theme from Mario Strikers for music, but why unnecessarily restrict yourself when you could just go "make him the spin-off dude" and draw from a much larger pool of options? None of the other challenger packs have rigidly followed this model of restricting stage and music options to being character-specific, so it makes no sense to do so in this case.

If anything it only seems like a completely arbitrary hurdle. Much like the "he needs his own game first" thing, which doesn't seem to be brought up for literally any other potential newcomer. Also, I have a feeling that your definition of Mario side character is much different from mine if it includes Yoshi, Peach and Bowser.

 

[Theguy123]

I'm pretty sure that's not how that works.

theres no reason for them to include an AT in the 2 trailers if they didn’t have a shot. There’s literally no reason to make people think an AT has a chance if they don’t.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

theres no reason for them to include an AT in the 2 trailers if they didn’t have a shot. There’s literally no reason to make people think an AT has a chance if they don’t.

There's two reasons; he's the mascot of the franchise(at this time. Could change) and they had a list of 15 possible characters(who Nintendo would be responsible for anyway, since they are the ones who would want ARMS advertised). It incidentally also implies they really don't care about the AT status. Either them and/or Sakurai. Why else would they advertise Spring Man as possible? He didn't get in, yet he's presented as possible? That's some pretty hard evidence he's on the table. It's probably more on Nintendo's end though.

 

[GilTheGreat19]

Heres a thought. If Masterchief was added as a Mii Costume in the Final Wave, would he be a Swordfighter using the Beam Sword or a Gunner using a random gun?

The Beam Sword is the most iconic Halo weapon, but it just feels right to make Chief a gunner given Halos general gameplay.

I think it’s called the Energy Sword and not the Beam Sword. Unless I’m mistaken and they’re both correct.

 

[Perkilator]

theres no reason for them to include an AT in the 2 trailers if they didn’t have a shot. There’s literally no reason to make people think an AT has a chance if they don’t.

Even as someone who still maintains that AT's do deconfirm, I'm not sure this is really evidence that they don't.

 

[The Rhythm Theif]

Even as someone who still maintains that AT's do deconfirm, I'm not sure this is really evidence that they don't.

Well. That makes two of us.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

“Yes, yes, yes, it’s Waluigi’s time to shine on the Speculation thread wahwah!” - Waluigi reading the last few pages

 

[Perkilator]

Well. That makes two of us.

I guess you can say...

...they're reaching harder than the entire ARMS cast.

YEEAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH

 

[GilTheGreat19]

…
So who’s gonna tell Perkilator that that joke has been made before

 

[ArkSPiTFirE]

There's certainly no evidence to suggest ATs will be promoted until it happens. That said, it could be a total non-issue, but until they decide to pick one out of that AT roster then we'll never know.

In my head, I reckon it comes up in discussion and could hold back a characters chances just on the basis that they are present on stage. A conversation about any given character probably has lots of layers to it. I don't believe Nintendo or Sakurai would say "No" to anyone just on the basis of being AT, but it could be one of many reasons why they might choose another character at this time. "Hey look, Tekken has less of those problems being talked about, and we've wanted Tekken in for a while. All in favour?"

 

[N3ON]

Correct me if I misunderstood but by “negligible” do you refer to a character that overall lacks an adequate following or fan base?

I mean a character's support in any given region is never going to be absolutely nothing, but characters with more rounded popularity globally just stand in better stead, so if a certain character has little popularity in a certain region, that's not going to aid in their case.

In fact, it may require the popularity in other region(s) to be that much more profound so as to offset the imbalance.

 

[The Rhythm Theif]

YEEAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH

God, I miss the days when I could actually find that video without it being included alongside other clips.

 

[GilTheGreat19]

I mean a character's support in any given region is never going to be absolutely nothing, but characters with more rounded popularity globally just stand in better stead, so if a certain character has little popularity in a certain region, that's not going to aid in their case.

In fact, it may require the popularity in other region(s) to be that much more profound so as to offset the imbalance.

Ah I see (and agree). Thanks for clarifying!

 

[chocolatejr9]

Cause hes been beat by Cosplayers.

Don't mess with cosplayers. Thet know more about the character than the character themself...

 

[Sucumbio]

He got a mii costume like... a month ago.

Ah so being originally an AT doesn't deconfirm but having a costume (like with Geno) does. Eck seems like a Kick in the teeth to fans of whatever character maybe save all that until characters are all out then a massive free Mii costume dump with a Better Luck Next Time! tag or something...

 

[subterrestrial]

honestly do mii costumes even deconfirm ?

 

[N3ON]

Ah so being originally an AT doesn't deconfirm but having a costume (like with Geno) does.

It's a question of when these were added. Having a DLC costume would happen after the DLC was chosen, or at least in tow with the selection, while anything that happened in base is potentially now subject to reevaluation.

Eck seems like a Kick in the teeth to fans of whatever character maybe save all that until characters are all out then a massive free Mii costume dump with a Better Luck Next Time! tag or something...

Considering DLC costumes handily outnumber DLC characters, you have to get pretty carried away in your own hype to see the character as more plausible than the costume, and then feel resentment once a situation we were never promised fails to transpire.

And they're obviously not going to save the DLC costumes until the install base is at its lowest to start selling them (or just... giving them away?), especially for the sake of a few bitter fans. They're a business.

 

[3BitSaurus]

honestly do mii costumes even deconfirm ?

To be fair, the issue isn't that being a Costume is in itself a bad thing. The issue is why would they sell, say, a Dante Mii if he was the very next character?

It's less of a "no overlap" thing and more of a "the character probably wasn't chosen in the first place".

Closest thing we got to an upgrade was Rex, and that was in the base game, almost 3 years ago. That's why people generally believe that Mii upgrades in the same DLC batch they were introduced are a no-go.