So I'm interested in the discussion of how Nintendo chooses it's DLC Fighters, and I have some takes on the matter, some you may have heard before, but ones I have nonetheless
-I do think there is a difference between picks that are more Nintendo Focused and More Sakurai Focused, and we could tell the difference between the 2 thanks to Official Statements
Hero, Byleth, Steve, and Kazuya were characters that had Nintendo namedropped as the major factor to their inclusion. Nintendo specifically wanted Dragon Quest, Minecraft, and Tekken to be represented in Smash, and Nintendo wanted a character from a game people would be playing at the time, which Fire Emblem Three Houses fit
Joker, Banjo, Terry, Min Min, Sephiroth, and Pyra/Mythra didn't have this happen for them, which kind of tells me that Nintendo was not as big of a factor in the decision as it was with the Above characters, especially in Banjo's Case, as It was said Nintendo was surprised at the reaction to Banjo. I think if they had as much confidence in Banjo as they did a character like Hero or Steve, they wouldn't have been surprised.
This doesn't mean that Nintendo didn't see value those characters though, otherwise they wouldn't be in the Fighter Pass in the first place, but there are definitely characters Nintendo was prioritizing being in. and I think these are the Factors that Nintendo really pay attention too
Nintendo seems to prefer choices from Big, Well Known franchises or Games with a Substantial untapped audience, and choices that is very relevant at the time of inclusion. The Former gets more new audiences into Smash, and the Latter uses Smash as a vehicle for other New software to get a boost in Sales. Dragon Quest, Minecraft, and Tekken are the Former, and Fire Emblem Three Houses is the Latter
Joker had a big game with Persona 5, but even with Persona 5, it can't really compare with Dragon Quest, Minecraft, and Tekken in Legendary status as of yet. Banjo has been mostly irrelevant, and most of his support came from people already playing Smash, Terry is legendary in FGC, but it's still kind of niche in the grand scheme of things, Min Min and Pyra/Mythra come from games not as recent, and Sephiroth doesn't appeal to New audience as Cloud and FF7 was already in Smash before his Inclusion
I think Sakurai becomes more of a factor in regards to these characters, especially in the Cases of Banjo and Terry since I Imagine Sakurai, along with other Circumstantial factors like Phil Spencer's Support for Banjo and SNK's easy willingness were major factors to why they are in Smash today
Sakurai I think has the same standards for choices as Nintendo does, as Sakurai also cares about the appeal a character would have. That's why he's turned down characters for lack of Global appeal in the past for example. I think though Sakurai is more open to the types of appeal a character can have while Nintendo is more particular about their choices. Sakurai is gonna be the one to care more about the Fan requests or popularity of of a character, the Potential fun of their moveset and other qualities, and be willing to ignore lack of relevancy if the character as other factors at play. I also think Sakurai is willing to go for more niche options, where it seems Nintendo wants to go big
Overall, even if Sakurai is perhaps a more major factor in a Character's Inclusion than Nintendo is, at the end of the day, Nintendo has to give the green light to the idea as they are the ones choosing the DLC
And I think even with the choices that seem to be Nintendo Focused, Sakurai also has to be down for the idea, since he and the Team are developing the actual game. Dragon Quest, Minecraft, Tekken, and Three Houses wouldn't have characters if Sakurai couldn't find a way to make them work. this is also not saying Sakurai is not a fan of these characters or games, he's shown is love for all these franchises/games
-When it comes to 3rd parties, Company relations and ease of access I think is more important than people make it out to be. The Asking Price of a character is one major factor, as Nintendo is only willing to spend so much on a project, especially something like DLC, which is going to have more limited appeal than something like a Whole game
But I think just how easy a Company makes it for the Development team to use their character also applies. Every company is different in how they want their character represented in a Crossover game like Smash, and some are more particular about details than others.
Sakurai has stated that the Company has to allow Sakurai to take charge and put his own spin on the character in order for them to be implemented in Smash. Characters development takes a long time as there are alot that goes into these characters, some we might take granted for, so it would be a miss if what a Company wanted and what Sakurai/Nintendo wants clashes in middle of Development
Of course since we don't know the ins and outs of a whole Company, it's only speculation on which Companies are more stickier for Details or representation of the character, but we could infer perhaps from past examples of how a Company has acted with a character, or perhaps the number of (or lack there of) crossover appearances
and of course the number of Companies involved are important, in addition to the above examples. There's a reason Sakurai doubted that he and Nintendo would be able to get Dragon Quest into Smash, As Dragon quest not only has alot of Companies involved, but they can be very particular about the franchise is represented. There's also a reason James Bond didn't get into Melee
-Development is also factored into the choices, as much as people believe that Sakurai can make anything possible. We already know this was a reason Rex isn't represented as playable with Pyra/Mythra, and is likely the reason Steve and Kazuya had to wait to Pass 2 to become playable
Nintendo is the one funding the development of the characters in the first place, so if Sakurai tells them that certain ideas wouldn't be able to work, Nintendo is going to care about that.
I think there is also the factor of the amount of work put in for the Amount of Reward. Ultimately while Steve and Kazuya needed alot of work to fit them into Smash, because they are Big, Popular franchises at the end of the day, It's worth it in the end. I don't see Sakurai and the Team putting in the work they did for Steve for a character that is way more niche in comparison.
Of course it's up to speculation on what counts as worth the effort, and what's easy and what's not
-In terms of CP11, I think if we take Sakurai's words about "1 or 2 extra Fighters intially" seriously, that Steve and Kazuya were actually the more prioritized characters for FP2. they are both Franchises that Nintendo wanted in the game for reasons stated in the topic
If I had to take a guess in what this means for CP11, I think it's either a more Nintendo based pick with a character from a game people are going to be playing in the future (and this would be a very recent addition, and perhaps why there are 6 slots), or it's a character that is more niche in comparison, or is a character that doesn't appeal to new audiences, like Sephiroth as an example
