I was very tempted to post a very spicy take about first party speculation right now, but I think I’ll respond with something tamer.
The main reason that first party speculation is “shill” picks is because they have been centered on showing off new stuff. Plant I am going to say is an exception, but given the fact plant has a Palutenas guidance while the dlc characters don’t leads me to believe they were envisioned much earlier than the rest of dlc, as something of a pre order bonus.
Corrin, Byleth, Min Min, and the Aegis are what we got in terms of first party newcomers as dlc. And ultimately, all of them were pushing something at least relatively new. First party speculation is kind of dead because until a first party comes in and breaks that barrier, it seems like it just isn’t happening. Now, who knows. Maybe CP11 is Bandana Dee or something that would break that barrier. Maybe it’s something that reinforces it. We won’t know until October probably.
Personally, I am fine with first party speculation taking a backseat for now. I might post my hot take on it, but I’ll wait and see.