Pokemon is deconfirmed through Spirit Events, while I don't expect any new DK or Kirby reps until we get a new game for those franchises.
I don't think Spirit Events themselves deconfirm a certain character; only if that character shows up in the event itself. I mean, I get the reasoning behind it; why release an event with new spirits if you're going to release a new character down the road that could use the spirits in the special DLC Spirits section, but I'm not 100% convinced a new Spirit Event is a death sentence for a character.
In the end, Gengar84 is exactly right; it's likely to be someone nobody really speculated on, yet again.
Every time someone here has posted a 'Predictions' list, it's completely indistinguishable from a 'Wishlist'. Nobody has really separated the two. That's why we keep getting 'surprised' showing up as a rep. every time we think we nail a theory down, it's disproven and a new, even more shaky one, comes forth.
I'm not saying we should stop predicting altogether, but maybe approach things a different way? Like, consider another angle? Like what would Nintendo and Sakurai want in that is
also recognizable? You can't look at the love that Sakurai put in to the development of Terry & Kazuya and not see that the man loves true fighting games; he obviously grew up with them. Sakurai said awhile back that Nintendo approached him with a list of characters and he kinda chooses from that pool and says what's doable. Pretty sure, to make this the most marketable game of all time, said pool is going to include highly recognizable characters (Sephiroth, Hero, Steve), 1st party characters not already in (Min Min, Pythra), and characters from series not yet represented that Sakurai truly loves (Joker, Terry, Kazuya). In a way, I think that means Iconography
does matter (contrary to what some think) as well as Sakurai's personal taste.
As far as Fan requests go, I think the heavy fan requests (Ridley, Banjo, K. Rool) are all done. Since Banjo was really the last of them in a sense, he was clearly decided on back in actual development towards the end. And Pass 2 characters were completely decided halfway through pass 1's release. So people asking for Zagreus? Maybe hope for him next game, because Zegreus is so new that he wasn't really on peoples' radars until the pass was well underway, so he's impossible. They've already shown surprise twice now that highly requested background characters like Geno and Waluigi got so much request. Sure, Waluigi (and Toad) are the last of the main Mario characters not yet in, so its weird that Waluigi isn't in, but his popularity was never
that high. The explosion of interest for him almost seemed like a meme (like Shrek or Ultra Instinct Shaggy). And just like with Geno, Nintendo execs had no idea whether it was truly legit or not. If he had a lot of popularity before all of this, he may have been in the initial roster or added as DLC, but because his stardom is so memey, I don't think there's a chance of him being upgraded. Including him on 'prediction' lists at this point is just stupid; we
know he's not happening; stop pushing him like he has a chance and discuss a character who actually has a chance. Same can be said with several other characters I've seen throughout the several speculation threads, but I'll leave them nameless. They know who they are lol.
This went on longer than I expected lol, so here's a TL;DR:
If we want an accurate prediction of who's got a chance, take developers at face value when they said their characters isn't in, Take release dates of games & when Pass 2 was likely finalized into consideration, and maybe start dropping 'support' for characters who don't have a snowball's chance in hell so that we can actually have a meaningful prediction thread with
actual possibilities for once.