UberPyro64
Smash Ace
The Mojang community manager didn't know Steve was coming to Smash either. It's not a position that would necessarily make them privy to that kind of info.Master Chief has been seemingly dis-confirmed by Brian Jarrard
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The Waluigi outcry only seems to be a western thing and from what I've seen Nintendo of America are only a marketing and translation team. I could see Sakurai maybe listening to the outcry but Japan Nintendo are picking out the characters and I don't see them paying any mind to the Waluigi craze. Especially when most of the characters in both fighter passes aren't particularly requested by fans in the west. I mean Banjo & Kazooie got in but I doubt that was done entirely by Nintendo's free will when they're the only characters who were revealed and released with another character being Hero and Terry so I assume they didn't have much confidence in the bear & bird duo.
The other five I have no idea what to think of them so you're probably right about them.
As for who I think is most likely, I know everyone thinks Cortez is a long shot but this is probably the best chance he has ever got into being an actual Smash character. The revival of the series happening within the Fighter Pass 1 & 2 range has brought me a lot of hope. Especially when they brought back Steve Ellis and David Doak to work on the project and uh... Sakurai likes to get the original devs on board to accurately make the characters soooooooo...
Time to Split!
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The thing that makes me think less of Crash getting in is that they've mentioned Smash specifically in those Instagram posts. I don't think they could have mentioned it so much had it actually been Smash. It also seems likely to be that Apple+ series. Or at least something outside of games.