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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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Quick Gaming (QG)

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Ah, so a Danganronpa character it is.
that as well as Impa, Tingle, an Advance Wars rep, Crash, Phoenix Wright, Amaterasu, Tracer, Arle Nidja, SMT Rep, Fortnite Rep, Yakuza Rep, Maxwell, Cooking Mama, Professor Layton, Jibanyan, Aiai, Worms Rep, etc

There's definitely still options
 

TCT~Phantom

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Every time a character 'makes sense' they never end up happening.

I see no reason to even humor an SMT character at this point.
Every time except Inkling. And Belmont. And K Rool. And Isabelle. And Ken. And Hero. And Banjo. And Byleth. And XC2 and Arms getting content after that interview. And Steve.
 

Hydreigonfan01

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I made a list of what I consider to be deconfirmed characters or rather characters that shouldn't be speculated as much as others, any feedback is appreciated

Any Character with a Mii Costume: Black Knight, Viridi, Ashley, Takamaru, Lip, Isaac, Zero, Arthur, Goemon, Dragonborn, Lloyd, Monster Hunter, "Altair", Travis, Geno, Saki Amamiya, Chibi-Robo, Custom Robo, Tails, Proto Man, Vault Boy, Sans, Cuphead, Toad, Skull Kid, Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Ninjara, Knuckles, Heihachi, Bomberman, Shantae and Dante should all be completely ruled out at this point. There's also a minor addition with Dixie due to having a mii hat but I think I'll let that one slide since it's not a full costume and she's a popular enough request that she can't truly be ruled out yet. There's other mii costumes but these were the most noteworthy ones in regards to speculation

Any Assist Trophy: They are already represented in the base game with their own functions and we have yet to ever see one be upgraded to playable status, with Min Min's inclusion over Springman being the definitive nail in the coffin. Not a single one has a better chance of getting in over any other assist trophy and that's what they will remain when the DLC is finalized

Any character from a series that has already gotten a fighter as DLC: This includes Persona 5 (not really a series but only Persona related content was included and only Persona 5 got spirits), Dragon Quest, Banjo-Kazooie, Fatal Fury, Fire Emblem (Smash 4 is an exception because Roy was a returning veteran, not a newcomer), Arms, Minecraft, Final Fantasy, Xenoblade Chronicles and Tekken

Any Non-Relevant First Party Character: This is for your Bandana Waddle Dee's, Sylux's and Porky's who aren't deconfirmed necessarily but also have absolutely no reason to be put in now nor are popular enough requests to be exceptions like K. Rool or Banjo

Microsoft or Sony Owned Characters: Banjo, Steve, Cuphead, Vault Boy and Dragonborn have all been on Nintendo consoles prior to their fighters/mii costumes getting revealed, so here I'm referring to any characters owned by Microsoft or Sony (or by a company that either of them own) that has never appeared on a Nintendo console. Characters like say Ori are not ruled out in this scenario but characters like Master Chief, Kratos or Ratchet and Clank are

Non-Frontrunners from Speculated Third Party Company Reps: This is basically for characters like Spyro in favor of Crash or Viewtiful Joe in favor of Phoenix Wright, etc. Any non-frontrunner or character that definitely won't be getting in before another character from the same company should be ruled out

Indie Characters: Shovel Knight, Shantae, Undertale and Cuphead were the most highly requested indie franchises to get a fighter in Smash and the most they got was a mii costume. No other indie character will come close to getting the same or better treatment than that (sadly)

Characters from Companies Already Represented in this Pass: Keep in mind I'm only referring to FP2, I think Sega, Atlus and SNK are still fair game, but characters from Microsoft, Square Enix or Namco should be ruled out at this point

Mortal Kombat Rep: The game is practically non-existent in Japan, has a 0% chance of getting in as a fighter

Any Third Party Franchise That Got Non-Playable Character Content in the Base Game or a Spirit Event: These include franchises like Rayman and Resident Evil

New Franchises That Got Spirit Events: These include Ring Fit and Astral Chain

A Bethesda Rep: Any Bethesda reps should be ruled out at this point, since it wouldn't make any sense to reveal Dragonborn in the mii fighter wave before what could potentially be a Bethesda character unless there's no Bethesda character. Plus the only option really left at this point is Doomguy and if Nintendo is negotiating with Bethesda, a company now owned by Microsoft, to get an FPS character, there's a certain green armored FPS character I imagine they'd prioritize over Doomguy

Any "New Game = New Character" or "Anniversary = New Character" That Got Spirit Events: Games like Origami King and Sonic's 30th Anniversary getting spirit events should rule out characters like this

Valve Characters: There's ambitious and then there's this. I'd love to be wrong of course but the only time Valve has ever been on a Nintendo console is when Chell from Portal was in Lego Dimensions and that was on Wii U

Another Fighting Game Character: It's not impossible that we could get someone like Sol Badguy or Ragna but all the DLC characters were chosen at once, I have a hard time believing Sakurai would pick Kazuya and then pick another fighting game character for the same pass, especially back to back.

A Zelda Character that isn't Impa or Tingle: With the series 35th anniversary this year, it's entirely possible the last character could end up being a Zelda character. I think what is unlikely however is that we get a character that hasn't been in several entries or been around for a while, such as the BOTW champions

Ryu Hayabusa: The head of Team Ninja (a company owned by Koei Tecmo who works on the Ninja Gaiden games) saying they're waiting for Ryu Hayabusa's invitation earlier this year is pretty definitive as far as I'm concerned
Sounds to me like your just putting in fanrules for the sake of it tbh.
 

WeirdChillFever

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Every time except Inkling. And Belmont. And K Rool. And Isabelle. And Ken. And Hero. And Banjo. And Byleth. And XC2 and Arms getting content after that interview. And Steve.
Yeah, there’s a difference between “Even perfect storms can fly right past the roster” and “As soon as The Smash Fanbase mentions it is loosed in heaven, earth and fighters pass alike”
 

Twilord

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Sounds to me like your just putting in fanrules for the sake of it tbh.
They also called Banjo a "first party" - which they never were - and then noted them as a Microsoft franchise later.

The only third party character it honestly makes any sense to stretch "first party" to include is Bayonetta because we don't know just how far the rights to the franchise that Nintendo have garnered from funding and publishing two thirds of her games go.
 
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This is the first time I prefer the PlayStation Allstars choice to Smash Bros. Kazuya is cool but Heihachi in PSAS was fun as ****. But that’s also likely because PSAS had 3 attack buttons so Heihachi’s moveset didn’t require awkward directional inputs.
 
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osby

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They also called Banjo a "first party" - which they never were - and then noted them as a Microsoft franchise later.

The only third party character it honestly makes any sense to stretch "first party" to include is Bayonetta because we don't know just how far the rights to the franchise that Nintendo have garnered from funding and publishing two thirds of her games go.
For clarification: SEGA is the full and only owner of the Bayonetta IP. Nintendo only owns the publishing rights and exclusive content of the games they publish (Bayo 2 and hopefully, 3). Meaning, SEGA can do whatever they want with the series as long as they don't touch the stuff that only appeared on Nintendo consoles.
 

Gengar84

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They also called Banjo a "first party" - which they never were - and then noted them as a Microsoft franchise later.

The only third party character it honestly makes any sense to stretch "first party" to include is Bayonetta because we don't know just how far the rights to the franchise that Nintendo have garnered from funding and publishing two thirds of her games go.
To be fair, Nintendo did own 49% of RARE’s stocks at one point so I don’t think it’s that big a stretch to consider Banjo almost first party.
 

Dinoman96

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They also called Banjo a "first party" - which they never were - and then noted them as a Microsoft franchise later.
Eh? Nintendo co-owned Banjo with Rare during the N64 era.

 
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Megadoomer

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So

We have 2 blank spots in the source code for incoming update notes.



Anyone wanna take a shot at what those'll be?


It seems like promo spirits, but....what exactly?
If I had to take a stab at it, Ryu Hayabusa (if you own the Ninja Gaiden Master Collection) and Demi-Fiend (if you own Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne). They seem to be going out of their way to rule out characters, they've got no problem with using this to advertise M-rated games (as seen with Persona 5 Strikers having a spirit tied to it), and there aren't a ton of major releases in June. (assuming that these spirits are going to be tied to recent games - Arthur's spirit came out at the same time as a Mii costume, but I don't see this being used to encourage people to buy Skyrim, Devil May Cry 1, or Shantae: Half Genie Hero on the Switch)
 
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Gengar84

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Eh? Nintendo co-owned Banjo with Rare during the N64 era.

It’s weird how few people remember RARE’s partnership with Nintendo during the SNES and N64 eras. RARE was practically a part of Nintendo back then. I don’t think they technically counted as first party since Nintendo only owned 49% of their stocks but they were as close as you can get without actually being first party.
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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It’s weird how few people remember RARE’s partnership with Nintendo during the SNES and N64 eras. RARE was practically a part of Nintendo back then. I don’t think they technically counted as first party since Nintendo only owned 49% of their stocks but they were as close as you can get without actually being first party.
That's why people came up with terms like Second Party for Joint Ownership. It's always been confusing. In these cases, it's still closer to Third Party in practice when it comes to licensing overall. Since you still need the non-Nintendo portion to use the characters. They're just supposedly easier to get overall since Nintendo owns part of it, but we know that's not the case all the time(Pokemon is a lot harder to work with when three companies own the IP, after all). Though two companies might be easier than three, so.

It didn't help they were figuring out where Rareware was going right during Melee, meaning much of the DK stuff was unavailable for use. Diddy Kong couldn't even get a damn Trophy(playable was probably not on the table yet, though. But only cause Sakurai's first thought we knew of was a tag team with Dixie, so). BK on the other hand were considered. That'd have been neat if they could have delayed Melee just a bit to add more unique characters. Wasn't going to happen cause of the extremely annoying deadline for the GameCube's release, but yeah.
 

HYRULESHERO42

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It’s weird how few people remember RARE’s partnership with Nintendo during the SNES and N64 eras. RARE was practically a part of Nintendo back then. I don’t think they technically counted as first party since Nintendo only owned 49% of their stocks but they were as close as you can get without actually being first party.
There’s a joke in there somewhere
“Dang kids and their platform cross over play! Back in my day Sega did what Nintendon’t!”
 

Gengar84

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That's why people came up with terms like Second Party for Joint Ownership. It's always been confusing. In these cases, it's still closer to Third Party in practice when it comes to licensing overall. Since you still need the non-Nintendo portion to use the characters. They're just supposedly easier to get overall since Nintendo owns part of it, but we know that's not the case all the time(Pokemon is a lot harder to work with when three companies own the IP, after all). Though two companies might be easier than three, so.

It didn't help they were figuring out where Rareware was going right during Melee, meaning much of the DK stuff was unavailable for use. Diddy Kong couldn't even get a damn Trophy(playable was probably not on the table yet, though. But only cause Sakurai's first thought we knew of was a tag team with Dixie, so). BK on the other hand were considered. That'd have been neat if they could have delayed Melee just a bit to add more unique characters. Wasn't going to happen cause of the extremely annoying deadline for the GameCube's release, but yeah.
I don’t really know all the specifics but I wonder how similar RARE’s situation with Nintendo back then was to Nintendo’s current relationship with GameFREAK and The Pokémon Company today. I think I would still consider Pokémon first party even though it isn’t 100% owned by Nintendo.
 

Opossum

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I’m using logic and patterns to determine certain characters that shouldn’t even be discussed. Like for example you can’t possibly think we’re getting Dante after that Mii costume right?
There's the issue. That's not speculation; that's gatekeeping.
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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I don’t really know all the specifics but I wonder how similar RARE’s situation with Nintendo back then was to Nintendo’s current relationship with GameFREAK and The Pokémon Company today. I think I would still consider Pokémon first party even though it isn’t 100% owned by Nintendo.
It's why I say it's confusing. Nintendo doesn't fully own the IP by any means. But in context, 1st Party exclusive would be a better way to say it. Mobile Games aren't counted as competitive platforms like the Xbox would be. PC... I'm not sure if it does anymore.

But yeah, it effectively is in practice. It's not literally 1st Party either way, but why would we think of it in another way? No point to. It's not going anywhere else.

I really need to learn more about the details anyway. It's relevant to stuff I do~
 

Gengar84

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It's why I say it's confusing. Nintendo doesn't fully own the IP by any means. But in context, 1st Party exclusive would be a better way to say it. Mobile Games aren't counted as competitive platforms like the Xbox would be. PC... I'm not sure if it does anymore.

But yeah, it effectively is in practice. It's not literally 1st Party either way, but why would we think of it in another way? No point to. It's not going anywhere else.

I really need to learn more about the details anyway. It's relevant to stuff I do~
Yeah, it definitely is pretty confusing. In my mind, RARE will always be a part of Nintendo’s history which is one reason I would love more of their characters in Smash (besides the fact that I just think the Battletoads and Fulgore are awesome).
 

Cutie Gwen

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No kidding, I don’t wanna speculate the likelihood of deconfirmed characters, that’s the point
Yet you included other characters in that list for reasons that aren't universally agreed on, like an MK character. That's the issue, you're using your own subjectivity to argue objectivity
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Yeah, it definitely is pretty confusing. In my mind, RARE will always be a part of Nintendo’s history which is one reason I would love more of their characters in Smash (besides the fact that I just think the Battletoads and Fulgore are awesome).
Well, being part of a system or company's history has nothing to do with ownership, heh. Crash and Spyro are a majorly notable part of PlayStation's history, for instance.

Also, yeshhhhhh, those are awesome characters. Fulgore's my personal KI pick. The fact he's the mascot is entirely coincidental. Man, I'd love to see him fight ARMS' own mascot, Spring Man. It's just not the same as if he would be fighting Min Min, you know? But for now, having a new KI would be good. And why yes, I did use the acronyms for a reason. :p
 

volbound1700

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It’s weird how few people remember RARE’s partnership with Nintendo during the SNES and N64 eras. RARE was practically a part of Nintendo back then. I don’t think they technically counted as first party since Nintendo only owned 49% of their stocks but they were as close as you can get without actually being first party.
Supposedly, I don't have the facts to back this up and don't want to take time to look it up lol, Nintendo wanted to keep all of the DKC IP when they sold Rare so contracted to keep Diddy King, King K Rool, Dixie Kong, etc. Anything tied to DKC series. However, they didn't keep Banjo, Conker, etc. Those IPs all remained with Rare.
 

Quick Gaming (QG)

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Then don't, nobody is forcing you to participate in discussions you're not interested in. You don't have to shut down other people to speculate on what you rather want to talk about.
I’m trying to temper expectations. It’s better if people accept that certain characters aren’t happening now rather than setting themselves up for disappointment over the next who knows how many months
 

Quick Gaming (QG)

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Yet you included other characters in that list for reasons that aren't universally agreed on, like an MK character. That's the issue, you're using your own subjectivity to argue objectivity
How am I being subjective by saying MK isn’t popular in Japan because it doesn’t release there?
 

CureParfait

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I’m trying to temper expectations. It’s better if people accept that certain characters aren’t happening now rather than setting themselves up for disappointment over the next who knows how many months
Even if that's the case. It is not 100 percent guarantee that those characters won't happen. FP2 have been rather unpredictable on what is going to happen.
 

Cutie Gwen

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How am I being subjective by saying MK isn’t popular in Japan because it doesn’t release there?
You're being subjective by flatout saying it's objectively impossible. Games no longer getting localized is a negative but they're etill available through Steam and have had other releases in Japan, I don't care for MK but it's merely unlikely, not out of the running
 

osby

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I’m trying to temper expectations. It’s better if people accept that certain characters aren’t happening now rather than setting themselves up for disappointment over the next who knows how many months
Trying to stop people from talking about their most wanted characters isn't a good way to temper their expectations, though. Allowing discussions to occur naturally and respectfully presenting your arguments on why you think a character won't happen is more likely to actually change others' opinions.
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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How am I being subjective by saying MK isn’t popular in Japan because it doesn’t release there?
The thing is? That's not why it doesn't release there. People can find ways to get it, but it's a CERO thing. Warner Bros. has to tone down a ton of stuff to allow it to release properly, which... makes it not Mortal Kombat. Albeit, I'm not even a fan of the X-Ray moves, but they are a staple of the series now. You can't just outright remove all the gore and call it a day. If they can find a way to tone it down while removing the X-Ray moves and still make it feel like a deadly violent series, sweet. But so far, it doesn't seem the case.

It's actually still got a pretty decent fanbase and is quite iconic worldwide. It's just impossible to keep getting more fans, due to not having a proper release in Japan for over 20 years now(like, the first two or three core games released, and I think at most Mortal Kombat VS DC Universe might have? But I'm not sure on the last one. Being the canon Mortal Kombat 8, well... and it's able to get past CERO as is).

Popularity isn't about simply whether the game is released or not, though sales can help show something of note. But in this case, sales aren't indicative of its popularity in context. I mean, you can't judge sales when it can't be released there. If it was released, it'd still have a good set of sales, though I do agree with the idea that it wouldn't be that great of a seller due to Japan not liking high octane violence and gore. But as we see in anime, that can be a part of it, so it's not the full story either.

Oh, right, the Steam releases. I forgot why that was. Not affected as hard by CERO or something? Either way, they aren't available on regular consoles.
 
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WeirdChillFever

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I think the list is a good idea and does make some points that can be useful to group characters in discussion points. It’s just that the intent of DECONFIRMED; RED TAPE: DO NOT DISCUSS is iffy to me and makes the list seem much more objective and universally agreed upon than it actually is, and positions the list as the latest edition of Da Rules when you’re not in the position to assert any authority like that. But I do suppose it is semantics; deconfirmed has a much harsher connotation than “characters with a chance rating I deem so low I don’t think it’s productive to discuss it”. I don’t think most of these characters are 100% deconfirmed and finito, but for the sake of discussion it might be more productive to look elsewhere.

As for Mortal Kombat specifically, yes it’s still possible but given its status in Japan I also very much don’t blame them for not deeming it a worthwhile discussion point.

EDIT: I think a nice tl;dr version is what exactly your definition of “deconfirmed” is. For most people, it’s 99.99% not happening because of in-game roles and for others it’s “okay, one slot left: assuming they’re optimalizing it I can assume it’s not one of these” and thus deconfirmed.
 
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Quick Gaming (QG)

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You're being subjective by flatout saying it's objectively impossible. Games no longer getting localized is a negative but they're etill available through Steam and have had other releases in Japan, I don't care for MK but it's merely unlikely, not out of the running
Doesn’t change the fact that for the same reasons it can’t be released in Japan, it wouldn’t be a faithful recreation in Smash. It’d be a Mortal Kombat vs DC Universe type thing and most people didn’t like that game so…

Also we just got Kazuya, a fighting game character. I know we’ve had several RPG characters in the same set of DLC before but I seriouslt

Trying to stop people from talking about their most wanted characters isn't a good way to temper their expectations, though. Allowing discussions to occur naturally and respectfully presenting your arguments on why you think a character won't happen is more likely to actually change others' opinions.
Right, cause that worked so well with Shantae and Dante fans
 
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TCT~Phantom

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I’m using logic and patterns to determine certain characters that shouldn’t even be discussed. Like for example you can’t possibly think we’re getting Dante after that Mii costume right?
The problem is most of this stuff you listed is subjective, even if I personally agree with it.

For instance, Geno is 99.99% likely dead this game, his Mii is a silver bullet of sorts. But so long as Geno fans are respectful and acknowledge his shot is not great right now, why should they be gatekept from speculating on their character?

Fan rules are always concrete except when they aren’t. Sometimes, these rules are broken easily. Smash is no longer a Nintendo all stars game and hasn’t since November 2015. Ridley is not too big. Microsoft is involved with smash now. Many fan rules, such as no third party getting a second rep and then a second unique rep or spirits deconfirming, have been disproven.

Now, does that mean Waluigi for instance is a lock because ATs don’t deconfirm? Not in the slightest, but gate keeping like this is not good either.

If you speculate on chance, you can’t really gatekeep and you have to keep everything in mind. I run Rate Their Chances. We debate and discuss all sorts of characters for smash, and honestly we have had pretty good track records for the most part. We did say that Sephiroth as a whole was underrated before he got in, and said SNK was a dark horse. Our only real miss was Kazuya, mainly because everyone thought Tekken was dead after the Heihachi Mii. Part of the reason for our success is that we don’t gatekeep, people can nominate and bring up anything. Heck, people helped nominate SNK, Sephiroth, or Joker (who was revealed right before we would have discussed him in about a week.) Gatekeeping is bad.


Saying a character is unlikely is fine. For example I say Rayman is unlikely all the time. Saying people shouldn’t talk about rayman or support him is a different matter. If someone can make a good case for Rayman, I can respect it. Speculation is subjective, but you can’t throw objectivity out the window. Build your case for a character and why they are likely. Don’t gatekeep who others might think are likely or you might miss important points.
 
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DrifloonEmpire

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that as well as Impa, Tingle, an Advance Wars rep, Crash, Phoenix Wright, Amaterasu, Tracer, Arle Nidja, SMT Rep, Fortnite Rep, Yakuza Rep, Maxwell, Cooking Mama, Professor Layton, Jibanyan, Aiai, Worms Rep, etc

There's definitely still options
As someone who enjoyed Banana Blitz HD< I'm glad someone else is considering Aiai as a possibility! While my top SEGA choice would be another Sonic character, Super Monkey Ball is definitely an underrated pick, having gotten a big revival a year and a half ago along with another big remake on the horizon!
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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The problem is most of this stuff you listed is subjective, even if I personally agree with it.

For instance, Geno is 99.99% likely dead this game, his Mii is a silver bullet of sorts. But so long as Geno fans are respectful and acknowledge his shot is not great right now, why should they be gatekept from speculating on their character?

Fan rules are always concrete except when they aren’t. Sometimes, these rules are broken easily. Smash is no longer a Nintendo all stars game and hasn’t since November 2015. Ridley is not too big. Microsoft is involved with smash now. Many fan rules, such as no third party getting a second rep and then a second unique rep or spirits deconfirming, have been disproven.

Now, does that mean Waluigi for instance is a lock because ATs don’t deconfirm? Not in the slightest, but gate keeping like this is not good either.

If you speculate on chance, you can’t really gatekeep and you have to keep everything in mind. I run Rate Their Chances. We debate and discuss all sorts of characters for smash, and honestly we have had pretty good track records for the most part. We did say that Sephiroth as a whole was underrated before he got in, and said SNK was a dark horse. Our only real miss was Kazuya, mainly because everyone thought Tekken was dead after the Heihachi Mii. Part of the reason for our success is that we don’t gatekeep, people can nominate and bring up anything. Heck, people helped nominate SNK, Sephiroth, or Joker (who was revealed right before we would have discussed him in about a week.) Gatekeeping is bad.
Worth noting that even Sakurai said Ridley is too big. That one isn't entirely a fan rule. It took an all new model design to make him shrinkable. It just started as a fan rule but became reality.

...But yes, in general, this gatekeeping is ridiculous. Of course, there's a huge difference between believing why you don't think a character is likely, and not allowing people to discuss it whatsoever. Being contrarian for the sake of it is annoying, after all.
 
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