Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Icedragonadam]

Is it really any surprise that 3rd party characters are typically saved for the events that'll have millions of eyes on it?


It's really not that strange. Historically, Nintendo characters have either been in normal Directs, OR come alongside 'big' reveals. This more or less held true for E3 2014 as well, where even though Palutena was revealed, we had Miis, which were being touted as this big new feature of "Now YOU can be in Smash", and later that day, Pac Man was also revealed.


Now of course, this isn't a pattern by any means, Cloud and Terry were revealed in a standard Direct, but Cloud was also used as a hook to announce "HEY, LOOK, WE'RE DOING A BIG, FINAL PRESENTATION! CLOUD'LL BE THERE, YOU DON'T WANNA MISS IT!"

And as much as I love Terry.... he's definitely the smallest 3rd party we've gotten this cycle. That's not bad by any stretch of the imagination no, but he's definitely the smallest of them all, and probably the absolute cheapest to license if the sheer amount of content he came with is anything to go by.



Of course, this also works the other way as well.


Ridley, a 1st party character was revealed at E3 2018 with no 3rd party character, but at the same time, he was also like, the de-facto most wanted character, period, and alongside him was "EVERYONE IS HERE!"



There's no 'rule' that 3rd party characters are more likely for big events, but I also think Nintendo realizes that they'll get more eyes on them for "John Mc3rd party was shown off at the biggest gaming convention in the world" moreso than "We're adding another Nintendo character and going to use this once a year event to show it off."

I'd argue Snake's return was the big third party reveal itself.

 

[ZelDan]

Regardless of E3 patterns or "hype," I feel like we are probably going to get atleast one more third party character in FP2, so I'm basically thinking we'll see one at E3 just because of that. Especially considering I still kinda feel like we will get a double reveal this E3 (though I could also see a single reveal happening, as much as I'd rather not see that happen)

 

[SharkLord]

Well Ridley was first party, and he was at E3. Ridley was also one of the most requested characters in smash history though.

I think the real correlation is E3=Hype. And third party’s are simply considered to be more hype by the fanbase.

Adding on to this, I think it's because we already have most of Nintendo's obvious megatons; Mario, Pikachu, Link, so on and so forth. I think most people's idea of E3-worthy hype is the widest net, and so after they check of Nintendo's icons, they turn to third-parties in search of the biggest icons possible. Well, their definition of an "icon," at least - It varies from person to person.

 

[Shroob]

I'd argue Snake's return was the big third party reveal itself.

That is a fair argument. They absolutely used Snake to drive home the message that "EVERYONE IS HERE!"

 

[Noipoi]

And as much as I love Terry.... he's definitely the smallest 3rd party we've gotten this cycle. That's not bad by any stretch of the imagination no, but he's definitely the smallest of them all, and probably the absolute cheapest to license if the sheer amount of content he came with is anything to go by.

The little third party that could.

 

[Shroob]

The little third party that could.

Terry doesn't mind one bit.


Terry is OK.

 

[Inkling Man]

What if Geno still joins in Vol. 2 despite everything?

 

[Idon]

What if Geno still joins in Vol. 2 despite everything?

Then I have a lot of people to admit I was wrong to.

 

[subterrestrial]

What if Geno still joins in Vol. 2 despite everything?

wouldn’t even be shocked given how fanservicey ultimate is. tbh I still think the last 2 are gonna be a 1st party and a 3rd party

 

[Nekoo]

What if Geno still joins in Vol. 2 despite everything?

At this point, that subject is too much of a sad joke for me to even try to entertain the idea sadly.

 

[Guynamednelson]

the events that'll have millions of eyes on it?

You're not wrong, but I believe Nintendo goes for even more un-Nintendo characters at TGA than E3 because not only are more people watching, but more non-Nintendo fans HAVE to watch reveals from Nintendo due to the way it's set up. Meanwhile E3's format means you can stick to the companies you like.

 

[TheCJBrine]

What if Geno still joins in Vol. 2 despite everything?

[insert image of Geno smugly eating a Wendy’s burger]

edit: I found it:

I don’t remember the original artist, though; Google gave me a 4chan source (or some site similar to it)…

 

[Shroob]

You're not wrong, but I believe Nintendo goes for even more un-Nintendo characters at TGA than E3 because not only are more people watching, but more non-Nintendo fans HAVE to watch reveals from Nintendo due to the way it's set up. Meanwhile E3's format means you can stick to the companies you like.

I mean, that's an extremely small sample size for TGA reveals that you can't even make a good judgment.


We have:

2018: Joker, which sure, but Ultimate already had a lot of design elements inspired by Persona 5

2019: Nothing, though there's some reason to believe that Byleth 'could' have been there, if only because Byleth's blog post entries falling back in December, back when TGA would have aired

2020: Sephiroth, which, at this point, really isn't 'not Nintendo' since Cloud's been here since Smash 4, and FF7 is on the Switch.


So out of all these 3: One not really, one is straight up a Nintendo character(Though we'll never truly know if they were going to be at TGAs), and one kinda-sorta.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Yeah, upon second look I do wonder what that mobile game was

Mostly how much extra frickery it would add to the lore because let's not kid ourselves it would most definitely add at least another layer of mind screw

Every new bit of KH lore gives me life

I can only dream of a timeline where Nomura randomly tweets out new and bizarre pieces of lore a la JK Rowling (just without, y'know, the bad stuff)

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

What if Geno still joins in Vol. 2 despite everything?

If Geno gets in this pass, pretty sure this entire thread is gonna become even more of a joke than those old Brawl speculation threads way back in the day.

 

[Wunderwaft]

I always thought Byleth was gonna be revealed at TGA but got delayed. Not only does his trailer make more sense during TGA since it implies it might be a Three Houses DLC instead of straight up a Smash reveal. The trailer's surprise factor doesn't work when it's outright revealed in a Smash presentation.

There's also the fact that the full version of Edge of Dawn shadow dropped on itunes during the awards. Really, all signs point to Byleth being planned to be revealed at TGA.

 

[Shroob]

I always thought Byleth was gonna be revealed at TGA but got delayed. Not only does his trailer make more sense during TGA since it implies it might be a Three Houses DLC instead of straight up a Smash reveal. The trailer's surprise factor doesn't work when it's outright revealed in a Smash presentation.

There's also the fact that the full version of Edge of Dawn shadow dropped on itunes during the awards. Really, all signs point to Byleth being planned to be revealed at TGA.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Byleth's trailer during the presentation also didn't open with the Smash swoosh, correct?


It feels like it was 'meant' to be a bait and switch kind of deal, but it didn't work because... ya know, we're watching a ****ing Smash presentation.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Byleth's trailer during the presentation also didn't open with the Smash swoosh, correct?


It feels like it was 'meant' to be a bait and switch kind of deal, but it didn't work because... ya know, we're watching a ****ing Smash presentation.

It does start with the swoosh, but that's such an easy thing to edit so they very well could've added the swoosh for the trailer in just 5 minutes since everyone knows it's a Smash presentation.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I always thought Byleth was gonna be revealed at TGA but got delayed. Not only does his trailer make more sense during TGA since it implies it might be a Three Houses DLC instead of straight up a Smash reveal. The trailer's surprise factor doesn't work when it's outright revealed in a Smash presentation.

There's also the fact that the full version of Edge of Dawn shadow dropped on itunes during the awards. Really, all signs point to Byleth being planned to be revealed at TGA.

I think that's a solid theory which begs the question: what the heck was Nintendo thinking with that one? It would've completely bombed at TGA. Did they expect Three Houses to be a GotY nominee and changed plans when it wasn't? Were they kicking themselves for backing out when TH won the Player's Choice?

It's just such a Nintendo move but I still can't wrap my head around it. There's totally a timeline where Byleth at TGA was a thing and even if we're not in it I still want an explanation dammit

 

[Shroob]

I think that's a solid theory which begs the question: what the heck was Nintendo thinking with that one? It would've completely bombed at TGA. Did they expect Three Houses to be a GotY nominee and changed plans when it wasn't? Were they kicking themselves for backing out when TH won the Player's Choice?

It's just such a Nintendo move but I still can't wrap my head around it. There's totally a timeline where Byleth at TGA was a thing and even if we're not in it I still want an explanation dammit

Three Houses was nominated for awards at TGA

Much like how FF7R was nominated for awards at its own TGA, which had Sephiroth's reveal.



IMO, the evidence for Byleth in December lines up, if only because the blog posts, when put back in place, are pinned exactly in December for TGA's air time roughly, but as to 'why' Byleth was held off, we'll never know.

 

[Noipoi]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Byleth's trailer during the presentation also didn't open with the Smash swoosh, correct?


It feels like it was 'meant' to be a bait and switch kind of deal, but it didn't work because... ya know, we're watching a ****ing Smash presentation.

I will say that it’s funny how it accidentally shut down all excitement immediately (unless you were into it)

No build up, no mystery, no hints until the big reveal. Just-

“Here’s Byleth.”

It’s almost like they were trying to let us down easy

 

[Stratos]

Some people hope that Captain Toad will come as next DLC newcomer to Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, but Captain Toad does not know how to make leaps in his game, so it is impossible for him to come.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Three Houses was nominated for awards at TGA

Much like how FF7R was nominated for awards at its own TGA, which had Sephiroth's reveal.



IMO, the evidence for Byleth in December lines up, if only because the blog posts, when put back in place, are pinned exactly in December for TGA's air time roughly, but as to 'why' Byleth was held off, we'll never know.

I know it was nominated for Awards but it wasn't nominated for Game of the Year, unlike Persona 5 and FF7R.

And if they didn't pull back because TH wasn't nominated for the big award, then why did they pull back? I can't imagine Nintendo being so confident in Byleth's reception they insisted on adding him despite Sakurai's misgivings, scheduling his reveal at TGA and going so far as to make a trailer, only to get cold feet at the last minute. There has to be another reason for them to have changed their minds.

 

[Shroob]

I know it was nominated for Awards but it wasn't nominated for Game of the Year, unlike Persona 5 and FF7R.

And if they didn't pull back because TH wasn't nominated for the big award, then why did they pull back? I can't imagine Nintendo being so confident in Byleth's reception they insisted on adding him despite Sakurai's misgivings, scheduling his reveal at TGA and going so far as to make a trailer, only to get cold feet at the last minute. There has to be another reason for them to have changed their minds.

Maybe that's exactly why?


Dunno, we'll probably never know.


At least with Steve, we know why he was delayed, because they wanted to synch up his release to coincide with Minecon, but Byleth's release is just an enigma.

 

[Wunderwaft]

I know it was nominated for Awards but it wasn't nominated for Game of the Year, unlike Persona 5 and FF7R.

And if they didn't pull back because TH wasn't nominated for the big award, then why did they pull back? I can't imagine Nintendo being so confident in Byleth's reception they insisted on adding him despite Sakurai's misgivings, scheduling his reveal at TGA and going so far as to make a trailer, only to get cold feet at the last minute. There has to be another reason for them to have changed their minds.

Your reasoning probably is it. Maybe once Nintendo realized TH wasn't given a spot in the GOTY award they backed out because they felt it wasn't right, which seems funny as **** in retrospect since TH won the player's choice award in the end.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

The most important thing to keep in mind is that Sakurai stated that Smash DLC is going to end soon. The last time he did that for Smash 4

Sakurai: Well, DLC is coming to an end soon, too, y’know.

Was when were released in early February about a month and a half later as the last two characters.

Knowing this, the last character for this pass is not going to be dragged out for months as that would contradict his statement about Smash DLC ending soon. If anything it is more logical that both characters gets revealed in June and released 6 weeks later. The counterargument of “hype” doesn’t work as revealing both characters isn’t going to make the pass less profitable (and it absolutely already has made a lot of money).

is there any evidence for e3 = 3rd party or is it just the expected hype ?

they usually save the first party promotions for last (as they should imo)

People are obsessed with hype. Whilst I predict the last two will be third-party, we could easily get characters like Lloyd Irving or Sol Badguy rather than “huge icons”.

There's no 'rule' that 3rd party characters are more likely for big events, but I also think Nintendo realizes that they'll get more eyes on them for "John Mc3rd party was shown off at the biggest gaming convention in the world" moreso than "We're adding another Nintendo character and going to use this once a year event to show it off."

But John Mc3rd Party isn’t that iconic or beloved compared to Popular McFirstParty!

 

[Shroob]

But John Mc3rd Party isn’t that iconic or beloved compared to Popular McFirstParty!

And neither of those characters is Scrimbo McBimbo.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

And neither of those characters is Scrimbo McBimbo.

A true classic.

 

[Shroob]

Knowing this, the last character for this pass is not going to be dragged out for months as that would contradict his statement about Smash DLC ending soon. If anything it is more logical that both characters gets revealed in June and released 6 weeks later.

However, something to consider is that Sakurai's implied he's got 2 "Presents" left to share with us, and releasing both characters on the same patch would probably be only a solo-presentation.

 

[Nekoo]

People are obsessed with hype. Whilst I predict the last two will be third-party, we could easily get characters like Lloyd Irving or Sol Badguy rather than “huge icons”.

It's funny because you managed to choose two characters that can be seen as "big icons"

 

[True Blue Warrior]

It's funny because you managed to choose two characters that can be seen as "big icons"

Not to the “Hat Ken” people.

Real talk, this guy was so downplayed that there even was one forum user trying to argue that SNK games are less popular than Ice Climber. No one else agreed in that thread.

 

[7NATOR]

For the Discussion on whether E3 will have 1 or 2 character reveals, I will say that Prominent Leaker, Nate the Hate, seems to believe we get TWO character reveals

1:28:32

I will say that I know he had the Switch Pro debacle, but I still think something to keep in mind

 

[Shroob]

For the Discussion on whether E3 will have 1 or 2 character reveals, I will say that Prominent Leaker, Nate the Hate, seems to believe we get TWO character reveals

1:28:32

I will say that I know he had the Switch Pro debacle, but I still think something to keep in mind

From just the sound of this, this sounds like nothing but speculation on his part tbh.

 

[Nekoo]

From just the sound of this, this sounds like nothing but speculation on his part tbh.

It's maybe speculation from his part, but from what he said to ERA, he think Nintendo's E3 will be a 8-9/10 from what he knows will be from Nintendo themselve for this e3
His Switch Pro Claims is because he knows lots of third parties that are making games for the switch pro, waiting for an announcement to announce their games (DQ12 might be one of them for exemple, for not announcing the platform yet)
So who knows, he's still one of the most reliable one

 

[Shroob]

It's maybe speculation from his part, but from what he said to ERA, he think Nintendo's E3 will be a 8-9/10 from what he knows will be from Nintendo themselve for this e3
His Switch Pro Claims is because he knows lots of third parties that are making games for the switch pro, waiting for an announcement to announce their games (DQ12 might be one of them for exemple, for not announcing the platform yet)
So who knows, he's still one of the most reliable one

Oh, I don't doubt Nintendo's showing will be very good, but I think most people are banking on that.


Smash, BotW2, SMTV is basically confirmed to be there, murmurs of DK and Kirby, maybe we'll finally see Bayo 3 or Prime 4(Doubtful on both).


I think Nintendo's conference is going to hit incredibly hard, with or without Smash tbh.

 

[Mamboo07]

Something something first party requests being bottom of the barrel.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Something something first party requests being bottom of the barrel.

Indeed.

 

[Shroob]

Anyways


Assuming there is only 1 reveal at E3, well, the time between CP10's release and CP11's is gonna suck, a lot, lol.



I know some people think this'll be like, the greatest time ever, where people go balls to the wall in regards to their support because "There's only one spot left, it's now or never!"


But regardless of who's shown off as CP10, the wait between CP10 and CP11 is just gonna be:


"Smash always ends on a low note, right?"
"Yup."
"Okay, cool."


For probably 3 months.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Oh, I don't doubt Nintendo's showing will be very good, but I think most people are banking on that.


Smash, BotW2, SMTV is basically confirmed to be there, murmurs of DK and Kirby, maybe we'll finally see Bayo 3 or Prime 4(Doubtful on both).


I think Nintendo's conference is going to hit incredibly hard, with or without Smash tbh.

Ah yes, Popular McRPG Guy instead of Scrimblo Bimblo The Lovable Scrunko, the Zelda Cycle beginning anew, a JRPG having the audacity to exist with murmurs of a waste of Retro Studios and the mid baby game.



I wonder if some people would believe I'm sincere here had I not added this note

 

[Staarih]

Regarding 1 or 2 reveals at E3, even if there's precedence for more than one at the event, I kinda feel they'll go for just one reveal. The last character feels better to be kept for a "Final Presentation" (think Corrin/Bayonetta) later in the year. If they revealed the final characters now, we'd still just have to wait for that final presentation with not much of a surprise left, really.

This is assuming this is actually it for DLC, which by all means it points towards being.