Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Shroob]

I mean, look how much the thread just complains about itself.

As my parents never said, "That just means they like you!"

 

[True Blue Warrior]

As my parents never said, "That just means they like you!"

So this thread is tsundere?

 

[Guynamednelson]

So this thread is tsundere?

I mean, haven't you noticed how I do discuss third party candidates in ways other than "nope can't do that this late the e3 hype's gotta come from something cheaper like catering to brawl boomers with isaac"?

 

[Cosmic77]

I think this has been a golden age in terms of the characters we've received, but not in terms of the characters we're speculating.

I'm sure people will disagree, but I think they've done infinitely better with the first-parties in this game compared to Smash 4. Lots of popular requests from a variety of franchises. The third-parties haven't felt as big as the ones in Smash 4, but the sheer number makes up for it.

Unfortunately, the flipside to getting a lot of great characters is that it kills speculation, especially with first-parties. Ridley and K. Rool were added, popular cuts like Mewtwo have returned, and many of our most sensible additions have gotten in by now. Now we're left with what's essentially the crumbs at the bottom of a bag of chips.

 

[N3ON]

As my parents never said, "That just means they like you!"

Well this thread would definitely be pushing itself over on the playground that's for sure lol

I mean, haven't you noticed how I do discuss third party candidates in ways other than "nope can't do that this late the e3 hype's gotta come from something cheaper like catering to brawl boomers with isaac"?

Brawl boomer?

Isaac?

Alright, I'm listening.

 

[Shroob]

I think this has been a golden age in terms of the characters we've received, but not in terms of the characters we're speculating.

I'm sure people will disagree, but I think they've done infinitely better with the first-parties in this game compared to Smash 4. Lots of popular requests from a variety of franchises. The third-parties haven't felt as big as the ones in Smash 4, but the sheer number makes up for it.

Unfortunately, the flipside to getting a lot of great characters is that it kills speculation, especially with first-parties. Ridley and K. Rool were added, popular cuts like Mewtwo have returned, and many of our most sensible additions have gotten in by now. Now we're left with what's essentially the crumbs at the bottom of a bag of chips.

Don't really think like that's that controversial of an opinion tbh, but maybe that's just me.


To me, Smash 4 felt like it was always modernizing the roster by adding in newer characters, while Ultimate's felt more fanservice-y overall. There's definitely still modernization going on sure, but Ridley and K.Rool carry the first party reveals on their back.

 

[Brother AJ]

I dunno.


In a way, this kinda is a golden age, in a strange way.


A good amount of the longterm fan requests are in the game now, meaning we're less tied to the hip for discussing things like Ridley, K.Rool and Banjo now.



Granted, that just in term becomes people talking about the same 5-10 characters on loop, so maybe not.

Lol... I don't mind the repetitiveness that much. It's... comforting in a way. I'm speaking more in terms of the toxicity.

To be fair Ridley/K.Rool/Banjo serve a similar if not overlapping audience, although other types of fanbases got their time in the limelight too.

That's a good point. I suppose I am in a bit of bubble when it comes to the Smash fandom. Still... SO many people wanted those characters, but sadly it's never enough.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

I personally don't think this is a golden age, I think we're ever more running on fumes here since we're at a point where there are basically no real leads, leaving us without direction. And earlier in the game that'd be ok, since there would still be a lot of plausible, popular candidates on the table, but we're also at the point where all but a small handful of usual suspects are in or likely out, leaving us talking about a very select few on repeat, or downplaying the unlikelihood of some (sort of arbitrarily chosen) very long shots.

Compounded by that is the fact that we're now two years out from the last selection of characters, which means games coming out now likely won't have affected decisions, closing yet another window. The long stretches between known characters has also further clipped engagement.

I don't think the end is ever the golden period, I think the beginning usually is (the part when the content actually starts getting revealed, that is), when there's still so much hope and possibility, when the updates are more frequent and there's just a lot to chew on. I think people have forgotten what it used to be like. In the time between Sephiroth to now, we got Everyone is Here and two Smash Directs.

I mean, look how much the thread just complains about itself. Look at how activity has fallen in almost every character thread. I don't want to disabuse you of thinking this is the best time period. If you think that, all the power to you. But I don't share that opinion.

Absolutely, this is not the golden age in terms of hype and the hype train has slowed down considerably. But comsidering this is close to the end of an almost non-stop hype train since Smash 4 was revealed I’m just glad we’re not going full speed ahead against the wall and instead are grumbling in our seats about how boring ithas become. The mood is befitting of the era we are in and that comfort is worth a good deal in an otherwise contentious fanbase.

 

[SpectreJordan]

I wouldn’t really consider this a golden age either. It’s been pretty boring lately. But I’m personally a big fan of leaks & rumors, there really hasn’t been anything major on that front since Tales of Chun-Leak.

 

[Shroob]

It is pretty sobering that this could all end in 2 weeks.


The fact that the age of Ultimate roster speculation could come to a full stop in (probably)exactly 2 weeks with a potential dual E3 reveal is, definitely a thing to think about.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

The beginning of the speculation period is the Golden Age because that's the part before any Assist Trophies, Mii Costumes, or the like are revealed and all characters are on the table.

The end is when a large chunk of the options have already been taken off the table more or less so we have the smallest pool. There may be some debate over what deconfirms what, but the fact that there has to be a debate at all already hurts the characters in question as every time the character gets brought up it turns into that debate rather than discussing the character themselves.

 

[Cosmic77]

Don't really think like that's that controversial of an opinion tbh, but maybe that's just me.


To me, Smash 4 felt like it was always modernizing the roster by adding in newer characters, while Ultimate's felt more fanservice-y overall. There's definitely still modernization going on sure, but Ridley and K.Rool carry the first party reveals on their back.

They're still putting a heavy emphasis on relevancy with first-parties.



The main difference is that they tried harder to include at least a few fan favorites. Echoes also helped a bit.

 

[Twilord]

How would you react if the last two characters were based on Meteos and Mushiking? (Sakurai's Puzzle and V-Pet games respectively.)

 

[Rie Sonomura]

also, even though we got the big three of Ridley, K. Rool and Banjo, there will always be “successors”

anyone with a good enough following can be the successor to any of the newcomers in Ult

Kinda hope Fiora’s the new Chrom for next game...

 

[Shroob]

They're still putting a heavy emphasis on relevancy with first-parties.



The main difference is that they tried harder to include at least a few fan favorites. Echoes also helped a bit.

And even from that list, I'd argue Inklings, Isabelle and Pythra serve dual purpose of being relevant, but also fan favorites. Like, hell, a XB2 character was up there as one of Japan's most wanted characters, after all.

 

[N3ON]

I think this has been a golden age in terms of the characters we've received, but not in terms of the characters we're speculating.

I'm sure people will disagree, but I think they've done infinitely better with the first-parties in this game compared to Smash 4. Lots of popular requests from a variety of franchises. The third-parties haven't felt as big as the ones in Smash 4, but the sheer number makes up for it.

Unfortunately, the flipside to getting a lot of great characters is that it kills speculation, especially with first-parties. Ridley and K. Rool were added, popular cuts like Mewtwo have returned, and many of our most sensible additions have gotten in by now. Now we're left with what's essentially the crumbs at the bottom of a bag of chips.

Honestly I think what kills speculation more than the characters we've received is that the popular ones we haven't are mostly all spoken for. In terms of popular first-parties, people would continue to speculate over the likes of Waluigi and Isaac until they show up in whatever form they show up in. And in the case of Waluigi, even that won't stop it. The same, of course, is true for third-parties as well, with costumes and statements hammering in a lot of nails.

Though I agree as far as greatly preferring the first-parties this time. With retrospect 4's were kind of underwhelming imo. I still think Brawl had the best first-parties (64 notwithstanding), and 4 may have had the best third-parties, but Ultimate potentially has the best mix. At least, that's where I stand on it.

Absolutely, this is not the golden age in terms of hype and the hype train has slowed down considerably. But comsidering this is close to the end of an almost non-stop hype train since Smash 4 was revealed I’m just glad we’re not going full speed ahead against the wall and instead are grumbling in our seats about how boring ithas become. The mood is befitting of the era we are in and that comfort is worth a good deal in an otherwise contentious fanbase.

I guess there's two schools of thought. On one hand, it's good there have been a lot of deconfirmations along the way, because it's impossible all those hopes could become realized by the last two characters, and that would lead to a lot of backlash. People have time to accept. You don't want a repeat of Smash 4, where on the back of Ryu and Cloud and a ballot, that final presentation was like slamming into a wall at full speed.

On the other hand, all that momentum we had last time was fuelled largely by hope. It didn't pay off, and that worsened the whiplash, but the last little while was a bit more optimistic and spirited than this time was. It certainly wasn't Smash 4's golden age either, but it was a little less strung out. I mean that phase only lasted about a year, anyway.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

First party speculation has been a mixed blessing in Ultimate because the newcomers/DLC has generally skewed towards newer characters/IP's and the influx of third parties has meant less overall interest in wondering about older franchises getting new fighters in. Granted there will always be dedicated fanbases to Krystal, Isaac, Dixie, etc, but it feels realistic to say their standing is not as significant because of the possibilities offered by non-Nintendo series.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Smash Ultimate’s base game didn’t miss a step, might be pound-for-pound a newcomer list rivalling Brawl’s.

 

[PeridotGX]

Next game speculation is gonna be weird, because veterans and newcomers will be eating at the same table once more. Will Ridley and K.Rool climb to the top once more? Will a less requested character the first time around, like Terry, become a top request because we know what he is? Will a veteran cannibalize a request for a newcomer, or vice versa? There are variables at play.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Ultimates Base game was basically perfect, it just so happens that they were presented all wrong. Still annoyed that the final base Newcomer they announced was Incineroar of all characters. After the high of Ridley, K Rool, and The Belmonts, kinda thought they had more in store.

Incineroar wasn’t a bad choice by any means, but why is that the dude you save for last?

 

[Shroob]

Next game speculation is gonna be weird, because veterans and newcomers will be eating at the same table once more. Will Ridley and K.Rool climb to the top once more? Will a less requested character the first time around, like Terry, become a top request because we know what he is? Will a veteran cannibalize a request for a newcomer, or vice versa? There are variables at play.

Missed the opportunity to ask if Terry would be OKAY.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Ultimates Base game was basically perfect, it just so happens that they were presented all wrong. Still annoyed that the final base Newcomer they announced was Incineroar of all characters. After the high of Ridley, K Rool, and The Belmonts, kinda thought they had more in store.

Incineroar wasn’t a bad choice by any means, but why is that the dude you save for last?

They always seem to end on a low note tbh since Brawl. Olimar, Duck Hunt, Corrin, Incineroar, Byleth, they never really seemed to care about super hype at the end.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Ultimates Base game was basically perfect, it just so happens that they were presented all wrong. Still annoyed that the final base Newcomer they announced was Incineroar of all characters. After the high of Ridley, K Rool, and The Belmonts, kinda thought they had more in store.

Incineroar wasn’t a bad choice by any means, but why is that the dude you save for last?

Probably a marketing thing.

Get all the hype characters out of the way first so you can guarantee more sales sooner.

 

[Technomage]

Ultimates Base game was basically perfect, it just so happens that they were presented all wrong. Still annoyed that the final base Newcomer they announced was Incineroar of all characters. After the high of Ridley, K Rool, and The Belmonts, kinda thought they had more in store.

Incineroar wasn’t a bad choice by any means, but why is that the dude you save for last?

I think it's because Ultimate was still getting more, just not for base game.

 

[Shroob]

Probably a marketing thing.

Get all the hype characters out of the way first so you can guarantee more sales sooner.

Which makes the E3 question all the more enticing.


If they do end the speculation at E3, one has to wonder what they'll bring.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

It’s EXTREMELY, EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL but

what if they get both final DLCs (+ the one bonus if there is one) out of the way... but also tease the next Smash??

 

[Noipoi]

Which makes the E3 question all the more enticing.


If they do end the speculation at E3, one has to wonder what they'll bring.

My personal theory is that if E3 is a double reveal, both characters will be decently big. Not Minecraft huge, but not just another Pokémon Y’know?

And if there’s only one at E3, that character will be decently big. And the last one will be the standard “last character” type deal.

 

[Technomage]

It’s EXTREMELY, EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL but

what if they get both final DLCs (+ the one bonus if there is one) out of the way... but also tease the next Smash??

That'd kill the finale. I'd personally hope they don't work on another Smash until one game later (such as another Kid Icarus). -_-

 

[Shroob]

It’s EXTREMELY, EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL but

what if they get both final DLCs (+ the one bonus if there is one) out of the way... but also tease the next Smash??

Teasing the next game before the DLC is finished?

That sounds like an awful move tbh.

 

[UltimateCyborgOverlord]

It’s EXTREMELY, EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL but

what if they get both final DLCs (+ the one bonus if there is one) out of the way... but also tease the next Smash??

I feel like they'd only tease "the next game" if the Switch's successor was on the horizon and "the next game" was just a Smash Ultimate version of an 8 Deluxe situation. Same game, all DLC included, maybe a few extra bells and whistles.

 

[Schnee117]

Teasing the next game before the DLC is finished?

That sounds like an awful move tbh.

It's an Early 2010's Capcom tier move.

 

[SKX31]

Next game speculation is gonna be weird, because veterans and newcomers will be eating at the same table once more. Will Ridley and K.Rool climb to the top once more? Will a less requested character the first time around, like Terry, become a top request because we know what he is? Will a veteran cannibalize a request for a newcomer, or vice versa? There are variables at play.

It would come down to a lot of different factors:

• How big of a roster Smash 6 has (or at least starts out with if Nintendo goes for the long haul). If it starts out with 30-40 there'll be a lot of complaints since it's effectively cutting the roster in half, 50-60 is safer but a tougher ask from a dev time standpoint. Smash 6 will also want its share of base game newcomers to put a spotlight on, so that further puts some pressure on veterans.
• Which model Nintendo pursues will determine a lot. Big base game as usual? One focused around expansions / additional Season Passes or whatever? Or - to the dismay of many given its prevalance and controversial nature - live service?
• Characters that are less popular casually or have known issues competitively may be just cause to go over them a second time and perhaps redesign at least aspects they have ( is a good example where this happened in Ultimate, since the changes affected how he plays a lot). There may be a couple instances where it's feasible, but unless they have a lot of time to tinker there may not be so many cases of this. Most of the time it's going to be buffs or smaller tinkering (like 's Monado Arts effectively being 's Hyper Monado Arts). That's of course going to eat into dev time and potentially limit the number of characters in Smash 6.

They always seem to end on a low note tbh since Brawl. Olimar, Duck Hunt, Corrin, Incineroar, Byleth, they never really seemed to care about super hype at the end.

TBF Incin does come from a big franchise and both FE characters are the kind of franchise Nintendo / IS are trying their damndest to push come hell or high water. They're not what most Smash fans wanted though due to percieved overabundance. "Not another Pokemon / FE swordsman", y'know.

 

[Guynamednelson]

TBF Incin does come from a big franchise and both FE characters are the kind of franchise Nintendo / IS are trying their damndest to push come hell or high water. They're not what most Smash fans wanted though due to percieved overabundance. "Not another Pokemon / FE swordsman", y'know.

Still, Sakurai clearly knew Byleth would be met with...less than pleasing reception.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Still, Sakurai clearly knew Byleth would be met with...less than pleasing reception.

He was the 8th Fire Emblem character so no surprises.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Next game speculation is gonna be weird, because veterans and newcomers will be eating at the same table once more. Will Ridley and K.Rool climb to the top once more? Will a less requested character the first time around, like Terry, become a top request because we know what he is? Will a veteran cannibalize a request for a newcomer, or vice versa? There are variables at play.

This is certainly an interesting question, but I can’t imagine Ridley and K Rool won’t return.

Theres no shot in hell they keep ZSS over Ridley, and both of them being cut means whoever’s in charge (Likely Sakurai) thinks Metroid should have one character.

K Rool I’m not as confident in, but Nintendo clearly knows how popular he is and it costs them nothing to bring him back.

The only way I don’t see them getting in base is if they’re already planned for DLC.

As for the Terry question, it’ll certainly be crazy. I imagine him and characters like him will get their own devoted fanbases, those that don’t get into base will likely be in high demand for DLC.

I’m not looking forward to it, I pray for Ultimate Deluxe so this doesn’t become a thing.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I think its likely Nintendo/Sakurai knew there would be pushback against Byleth but figured there'd be enough of the FE fanbase/a subset of Smash fans to still make their inclusion worth it. I'm sure they would have preferred that the public antipathy would have been a bit less overt (dislikes on YouTube, the awkward silence/disinterest in recorded reactions to the reveal), but from a business perspective things largely worked out fine.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I think its likely Nintendo/Sakurai knew there would be pushback against Byleth but figured there'd be enough of the FE fanbase/Smash fans to still make their inclusion worth it. I'm sure they would have preferred that the public antipathy would have been a bit less overt (dislikes on YouTube, the silence/disinterest in recorded reactions), but from a business perspective things largely worked out fine.

They already made their money on the Fighter Pass at that point.

 

[JustKindaBoredUKno]

I think the most interest part of speculating for the next smash is wondering what's going to stand it apart? What part of the formula is going to get switched up? You have to one up the series in some way, else it's just going to be the same but less with inevitable cuts to the roster.

 

[Shroob]

I think its likely Nintendo/Sakurai knew there would be pushback against Byleth but figured there'd be enough of the FE fanbase/a subset of Smash fans to still make their inclusion worth it. I'm sure they would have preferred that the public antipathy would have been a bit less overt (dislikes on YouTube, the awkward silence/disinterest in recorded reactions to the reveal), but from a business perspective things largely worked out fine.

I mean, they were also the last character.

I'd wager that the wide majority of people bought the FP1 before Hero was even revealed, so regardless if people liked it or not, you're stuck with Byleth lol.

 

[N3ON]

Ultimate's base newcomers are as good as you can hope for when you seemingly only dedicate enough time/resources/priority to five new original movesets. Taking into account that Sakurai basically has his hands tied with Pokemon, it having a slot and that slot being promotional being seemingly non-negotiable. So really, eleven newcomers, six non-echoes, five original movesets, and of those, four that weren't mandated.

Though I imagine if Sakurai said he wasn't intending to include Inkling Nintendo would've sent over the executive with glasses.

Obviously I think they chose well, but you also have to weigh that against the fact that the additions were quite limited.