I think what you're saying is mostly fair since if it costs too much, they don't make any profit, but that's what negotiations are for. Any company that doesn't fairly negotiate is essentially just rejecting the Smash offer. Terry absolutely got in on merits. It isn't fair to say he got in because he was cheap even if that was a bonus. Cheaper negotiations still probably have SNK taking a percentage of sales anyway and Nintendo probably isn't stingy enough to not give the smaller company more than exposure.
What likely hurt the DLC budget the first time around is probably how it was during the Wii U era and they didn't really have as much money made from Smash. I think Snake didn't get in because he was probably not compatible with Sakurai's vision for Smash 4 alongside Konami meddling.
With Sephiroth in, the most local conclusion for me is that Sora didn't get in because Sakurai vetoed it. He probably felt the Disney characters aspect was integral to what made Kingdom Hearts the series was and decided not to do it. He could change his mind someday but I think that and the allure of adding Sephiroth also hurt Sora. I really doubt it was Disney not fairly negotiating considering they even made Spider-Man work again with Sony a while back and they were clearly open to the idea when asked a few times right?
I think you're focusing too much on questions of fairness in business negotiations. I mean there can be mutual back-scratching that informs the agreement they reach, but ultimately a company is going to have a bottom line of how much they charge, and "fairness" is only going to sway the needle so much. Ask PSASBR. And some companies are going to be more austere than others. Disney strikes me as among the more stringent, in that regard.
But I will stand by Terry partially getting in because he was cheap. There are many characters out there that have merit, Terry is one, but there aren't that many that Fighting EX Layer can afford to license. Plus, look how much more content he came with than everyone else. I think his price tag was a not unimportant factor to Nintendo. It's very easy for people who don't have to deal with the financial aspect to say the financial aspect isn't that meaningful.
Plus, your Disney example is a little off. Not only does it deal with an entirely different division of Disney, but if you're referring to Spider-Man leaving then returning to the MCU, that happened because Sony declined further collaboration after Disney wanted their cut of the box office revenue to jump 45%. They ended up coming to an agreement, but I guarantee you they ended up with more than the 5% they started with. That's not exactly an example of Disney not wanting a big cut. That sounds very much like two companies playing hardball over money.
Here's another few things: Disney
wants Spider-Man. They are much more willing to compromise over something that meaningful, whereas Nintendo are the ones who would approach Disney, and then the ball is basically is Disney's court. Disney also devalues their own property to the detriment of the fans, trying to force the hands of other rights holders to relinquish control. Disney is not the pinnacle of fairness.
Also Nintendo tried for Snake last time so he had to have been at least somewhat compatible with Smash 4's vision. I also question the idea of Sakurai vetoing Sora over partial viable content considering for a while he was amenable to representing Final Fantasy with Cloud, Midgar, two songs, and that's it. Not exactly the breadth of Final Fantasy. It still isn't.
