Y'know, more than anything I'm realizing the question of Ayumi vs. Shadow is just weirdly specific. They're owned by different companies, they have different aesthetics, they're from different genres, and they're overall in much different situations. I think the real question here is why we're debating Ayumi and Shadow specifically.
It's because I'm a little mad
Like I said, I don't usually really get up in arms about the characters we talk about and what people feel are likely. with Ayumi though, I really don't understand why she's getting as much talk as she is getting right now, when really she has all the elements against her.
So I had to see what people felt about her, compared to a Popular and Iconic character like Shadow. I just had to see if people really didn't have high hopes for Shadow's chances, and it seems that yes, People really don't feel too high about Shadow's chances if Ayumi Tachibana is seen as more likely than him. I find it kind of frustrating personally
With all due respect, people are better off reaching their own conclusions about Shadow, because your perspective is going to cast him in a favourable light compared to almost anyone. And the reality of the situation is he's not in a very favourable situation, currently.
Ayumi because her games are coming out in a couple days, so people are talking about her.
And Shadow being grafted on to it is because... you know why.
I can't just keep quiet on Shadow though. the reason I put him in such a favorable light is that most people don't give him the time of day and just cast him in unfavorable light all the time, when there are actual counter arguments against some of the cons on his likelihood. I'm like the equalizer in this regard
The Assist thing is hard because many people won't be convinced unless an actual promotion were to happen, but alot of these responses are now being geared more towards people that are open to Assist Promotions, and mention how the Merits of the actual character is the main thing to consider
I understand if people find Eggman and Tails to be more likely, but Shadow also has reason to be in the conversation, as he is the 2nd most popular character, was the main showcase in the game that brought Sonic to Nintendo audiences, Has been the most requested Sonic character alot of the time (in more casual circles), is the Head of Sonic team (or Studio) favorite character, and is still a Relevant and Iconic character in general.
and Shadow should not just be seen as Echo Fodder. Shadow on his own merits is closer to Sephiroth than a character like Dark Samus. Shadow and Dark Samus both have the capabilities to be their own characters, but unlike Dark Samus, Shadow doesn't have any drawbacks that would prevent him from not being seen as his own character, and as said, as Merits comparable to Sephiroth in terms of Iconic status, popularity, etc
In regards to the reality of the situation, Sephiroth was not seen in a favorable light, as many people did not give him the time of day before he got in. I did not have him in active predictions, but I still saw him as viable candidate for FP2, and there were some actively predicting him, but many others just disregarded him despite his pedigree
I can see why you'd be hesitant on a promo pick who was region-centric for the longest time. I'll admit, I'm taking quite a risk here, and I can see why others wouldn't really want to take that risk. But "moveset potential"? VNs inherently being less likely? That's... decidedly less solid evidence, especially the former. Nintendo's choosing the characters, not Sakurai, and I don't think they'd care very much about moveset potential. Not when they kept coming back to ask Sakurai to add Steve Minecraft over and over again.
I'll also say that it's kinda hard to just say "(X) has a better shot than (Y) in all circumstances" when there isn't an end-all be-all criteria. Let's say Nintendo wants someone big and recognizable. In this scenario, then yes, Shadow is more likely. On the other hand, what if Nintendo wants to promote an upcoming release. Based on past precedent with the promo picks, a first-party like Ayumi is more likely. It's not black-and-white like that.
And as some constructive criticism, try to make your posts more concise. Most people are used to reading posts that are about three paragraphs at the most. When your replies go on for about five paragraphs, people tend to feel daunted, and glaze over the really long post unless it's a neutral, informative post and not an argumentative one. Basically, less is more and shorter posts get the point across more easily.
When I mentioned moveset potential, I didn't mean to say that would be a massive deterrent against Ayumi on it's own. but in comparison to other characters, from Sakurai's point of view, it's gonna be a factor
If it ever came down to Shadow vs Ayumi for whatever reason, Choosing to develop Ayumi over Shadow is gonna be a case of more work for less reward. while Minecraft took a long while to conceptualize a moveset, it was obviously worth the effort since at the time of choosing, it was one of the most high-selling and popular games out there, and Steve himself was very requested character. In this case, why choose to develop Ayumi, who comes from a game that makes it harder and time-consuming to conceptualize a moveset than usual, and a game that has more niche appeal and has no recent data of previous success, over a Character like Shadow, who comes from a Popular and relevant franchise, been very requested character, with 2 decades worth of usable content of moveset, along with a base to use in Sonic (though I don't think it would end up being clone scenario)
And the reason I'm so down on Ayumi is that even from a Promotion standpoint, Ayumi is most likely too big of a risk to gamble on. Corrin, Byleth, Min-Min, and Pyra/Mythra all had data to show that their franchise and/or games have seen success, which is something Ayumi doesn't have right now. There's a reason back in Smash 4, they decided to go with Fire Emblem as the promotion, and not Xenoblade Chroncles X, as Awakening brought the franchise to big heights, while Xenoblade as a franchise was more niche at that point.
It might even just be better to Promote a game from a 3rd party franchise, like Sonic, since Sonic has at least shown good sales data on Nintendo for years and years
I will take your constructive criticism to heart though. I do have alot to say usually so it's gonna be kind of hard to narrow down posts