7NATOR
, we both like to do long SmashFAQs writeups, so maybe you'll appreciate mine about this.
For Super Smash Bros. Ultimate on the Nintendo Switch, a GameFAQs message board topic titled "Diablo and Dark Souls Theory".
gamefaqs.gamespot.com
Who knows? I think spirits are the most likely outcome, if either do end up getting content. Y'know, Amiibo functions and all.
I've read the the topic before, and yeah it is interesting. I personally liked the theory.
Personally, I don't think either would be the characters, but I'm not gonna count it out though, as I could see reasons for each franchise to be picked for Smash DLC, especially Dark Souls. As for Diablo being too satanic since he is supposed to be Satan, I will say the Kids these days can be more edgy, and I don't think they'll heavily tie religion to it, so it should be fine
If Smash followed the ideology of "Recognizability is key," we'd probably have at least three Sonic characters now, among others. The thing is, Smash doesn't really have a consistent line of thinking. We have Steve, the player character of the best-selling game of all time (So far), and Sephiroth, the JRPG villain from the JRPG (For the West, at least), right after Byleth and Min Min, from decently successful Switch released but nowhere near the level of Steve and Sephiroth.
Aside from that, first-parties seem to have lower standards than third-parties. I'd presume it's a mix of A: Not having to go through any negotiations, and B: Being able to promote their own IPs, encouraging a stable loop that gives them the full profits without having to share with any third-parties. Well, it's probably a little more complex than that, but Nintendo seems to be less strict with their own characters than another company's.
But in all honesty... I can't really say who's more likely than who anymore. I have cracked, but in a direction. I've just given up on trying to find precise, accurate results at this point. Now, I'm just gonna name a character go "Yeah, I guess they could happen," and leave it at that.
It's not just about the Recognizability.
When it comes to this specific scenario of Ayumi vs Shadow the Hedgehog, In my personal opinion, there is no reason for Ayumi to ever be in over Shadow, or at least any other Sonic character
Remember, Byleth and Pyra/Mythra were only added as DLC after their Franchises/Games had actual data to back up the success of their Franchises/games, and and Appeal to Nintendo's safety in approaching the DLC since they have actual data. Famicon Detective Club is now just coming out of hiatus, and there's no data to show how well the Remakes would do. On the other hand, We've seen Sonic games do well on Just Nintendo, and that's not also including other consoles, as well as Mobile, and other avenues of the Brand
Ayumi isn't a character that is Especially popular when it comes to Requests. She's an extreme Darkhorse in this regard. Meanwhile Shadow has been requested character for like a Decade now. I don't see Ayumi getting fan-made trailers, and Loads of Mods dedicated to her, unlike Shadow
Ayumi and Famicom Detective Club are not things many Casuals are gonna know, hell even many gamers aren't gonna know about it. While I don't think Shadow is as known as Eggman, Tails, & Knuckles when it comes to the Casuals, He's still a character I can still see Casuals recognizing, and even then if they saw a picture of him, they'd be able to know that it's from Sonic.
and even in Moveset potential and such, It's much easier to make a Moveset concept for Shadow than it is for Ayumi. I'm not saying Ayumi can't have a moveset concept, but it would probably take much more work to implement the feeling of her franchise and of the character into Smash because of the type of game she comes from, and unlike Phoenix who has a source of material to gauge from (UMVC3), Ayumi doesn't have any of that. Meanwhile Shadow has 2 Decades worth of content to use, including unused gamplay mechanics like the Boost and Light Speed dash, as well as the concept of his Chaos powers and Control over Time and Space.
Even including in the fact that Shadow is 3rd party, It's not like the 3rd party is a Company that's known for being hard to work with (see Activision as an example). Sega is very cooperative when it comes to Sonic as a brand in crossovers, as Sonic has been in the Smash series for 3 games now. Shadow has been in 3 games now
If we knew being an AT didn't matter for getting selected I'd choose Shadow. Ayumi is first-party and has a current game, but games at this point are probably too late to have factored into things, it is just a remake, which usually don't mean as much, and it's also not the type of game that tends to get selected for promotion. I doubt Nintendo even decided whether they were going to have it localized when FP2 was being assembled.
If we get an original sequel I'd say Ayumi would be likelier than Shadow in general for next time, just because the bar for first-parties is very low compared to not just third-parties, but the fact that even intra-series wise Shadow may not have the best chance - unless Sakurai is looking for derivative additions.
As it is now, both are quite unlikely. I think Shadow has a lot more in his favour, but he's also working against larger hindrances. I think the question is more debatable than people are giving it credit for, but I think that's because I'm giving Ayumi less credit than others are.
Actually I think Ayumi should be given less credit than even you are giving her, as explained above, The fact that her franchise is now just coming out of hiatus, and the games themselves haven't come out yet, means that Nintendo doesn't have the data to be confident in putting Ayumi as DLC. Corrin, Byleth, Min Min, and Pyra/Mythra got in after their Franchises/Games already showed that they were success that can be promoted, or at least the franchise is a success. It also doesn't help that Visual Novels are kind of a niche genre in itself.
I don't like to disregard characters too much, as I like to respects people's opinions and thoughts, but The fact that I'm seeing Ayumi be seen as more likely, from some of the same people that says Assist aren't 100% deconfirms, but it depends on the actual character being promoted, kills me inside, and just stress why I'm on the Shadow Agenda, Because I try to put respect on Shadow's Name, and give an actual realistic look into the character's chances that people want to disregard for any other reasons
Ayumi in her current state should not be seen more likely than Shadow the Damn Hedgehog, if you're trying to be accurate with your guesses. the Hindrances (besides the Assist) that Shadow faces are competition with other Sonic characters and people looking at Shadow as Echo Fodder
Eggman and Tails have their reasons to be in Over Shadow, but they aren't so above him that Shadow shouldn't be factored into the equation at all. Between him being the 2nd most popular character in the game, debuting in the game that Brought Sonic to Nintendo audiences, as well as him being the favorite character of the current head of Sonic Team (or Studio as they liked to be called now i think), Along with the fact he's been very popular when it comes to Requests for Smash, it be foolish to go ahead and leave him out of the conversation
And yes he has Similarities to Sonic, enough to theoretically be an Echo, but he has the abilities to stand on his own not just from Sonic, but the rest of the cast, and it's not like Shadow doesn't have the merits to stand on his own accord also. I feel like if people remember that Shadow is a comparable character to Sephiroth and Chun-Li in terms of Popularity and Appeal and Recognizability that I think people wouldn't just demote him to Echo Fodder
This is a similar case to Isabelle, in which she was demoted to Echo Fodder by the community. The reason she's on the roster is because she had the Merits on her own to be on the roster, and it's the same case with Shadow
Shadow did not get into the Base roster...but so didn't Sephiroth, who had to wait till FP2 to be included in the roster. Just because Shadow missed the boat on the base roster, or Shadow wasn't included as an echo, doesn't mean he died or anything like that, it doesn't mean that Ayumi Tachibana has more reason to be included than Shadow the Hedgehog.
These hindrances that Shadow faces are not the big deal that people make it out to be. If you think Eggman, Tails, or even Knuckles has a better shot, that's fine by me. If you think we won't get Assist promotions because they are Assists, I don't agree, but I'm not gonna argue it right now. In any case, Shadow should not be seen as less likely than Ayumi under any circumstances as of right now