Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[warubyun]

I would like to note that, to my knowledge, Mario Maker 2 did also not receive a spirit event.

As far as King Boo goes, I am personally not interested.

 

[Yoshi-Thomas]

I would like to note that, to my knowledge, Mario Maker 2 did also not receive a spirit event.

As far as King Boo goes, I am personally not interested.

I made a list for that once.
The games that received no spirits event from Nintendo games and that are not straight ports like Pikmin 3 Deluxe are:
-Super Mario Maker 2
-Yoshi's Crafted World
-Fire Emblem: Three Houses
-Luigi's Mansion 3
I probably forgot some but these four are what come to my mind.

 

[RouffWestie]

I would like to note that, to my knowledge, Mario Maker 2 did also not receive a spirit event.

As far as King Boo goes, I am personally not interested.

I made a list for that once.
The games that received no spirits event from Nintendo games and that are not straight ports like Pikmin 3 Deluxe are:
-Super Mario Maker 2
-Yoshi's Crafted World
-Fire Emblem: Three Houses
-Luigi's Mansion 3
I probably forgot some but these four are what come to my mind.

Clubhouse Games didn't get one either.

 

[Staarih]

I made a list for that once.
The games that received no spirits event from Nintendo games and that are not straight ports like Pikmin 3 Deluxe are:
-Super Mario Maker 2
-Yoshi's Crafted World
-Fire Emblem: Three Houses
-Luigi's Mansion 3
I probably forgot some but these four are what come to my mind.

I see some people explain the lack of LM3 spirits because of there being LM3 content in Smash already (Luigi using Poltergust G-00). The same could be applied to Yoshi's Crafted World with Crafted Yoshi being an alt. Dunno if I agree on that though, there must be stuff already in Smash that got spirit events anyway? And Fire Emblem Three Houses obviously got spirits with Byleth.

But I feel like these (and MM2) are instances where a spirit event was just not bothered to be held.

 

[Yoshi-Thomas]

Clubhouse Games didn't get one either.

RETURN OF THE KING

I see some people explain the lack of LM3 spirits because of there being LM3 content in Smash already (Luigi using Poltergust G-00). The same could be applied to Yoshi's Crafted World with Crafted Yoshi being an alt. Dunno if I agree on that though. And Fire Emblem Three Houses obviously got spirits with Byleth.

But I feel like these (and MM2) are instances where a spirit event was just not bothered to be held.

Sure but LM3 did introduce a few new characters; they could easily have added one or two spirits by themselves like they did for Peachette.

 

[chocolatejr9]

How well do you think she'd be received by fans if she is in?

Probably more "shill pick" and "flavor of the month" comments by virtue of being a first party...

 

[cashregister9]

Spirit selections were weird

We Got a Mother****ing Warframe spirit but we still don't have Undertale spirits.

The lack of spirits is simultaneously worth keeping an eye on and meaningless at the same time.

 

[Wunderwaft]

View attachment 311723

After pass 1 I'm fully convinced the Absolute Safe Capsule spirit is in fact supposed to be referencing Porky, especially since it's a legendary class spirit. If Porky missing a spirit meant he was getting a character, that would've made sense during the first pass, but not during pass 2 when characters from the base game are back in consideration.

In the case of King Boo, sure a spirit event not coming with Luigi's Mansion 3 might seem odd at first, except when you remember Yoshi's Crafted World is in the same situation as it, which means it's not exactly a situation unique to LM3. For Luigi's Mansion 3 we got the suction shot as Luigi's grab for Ultimate, and for Yoshi's Crafted World we got a special skin for Yoshi. So yes the two games did get representation in the base game, and tbh the new grab probably did more representation for LM3 than a simple spirit event considering every Luigi player spams grabs.

As for Decidueye, him being a starter for Legends might be a point in his favor, but that game isn't releasing until next year. Pokemon always shills mons from the new games and that's been the case for three Smash games now. But for Legends I feel that it's too far away to actually be in consideration when the pass got picked during 2019. If we do get a shillmon it'll be someone from gen 8, and considering that game got a spirit event I heavily doubt we'll see a Pokemon in pass 2.

 

[Oracle Link]

Impa definitely deserves it as much as Bandana Dee at this point. I have hope for her eventually making it, BD too, but not this game most likely.

Yeah i do agree originaly i read Impa deserves it more than BD but luckily i reread it so yeah!

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

It’s just a shame that GetsuFumaDen won’t be out by the end of Ultimate. I would love a Spirit Event based on something this gorgeous.

 

[Louie G.]

I wouldn't put too much stake in the absence of a Luigi's Mansion 3 spirit event, but I would be pretty pumped about King Boo if it somehow did end up panning out. Definitely a more unconventional pick who would probably have a super cool moveset - I think the prospect of a ghost in Smash is really promising and fun. One of the better options for who I consider remotely feasible to be a final first-party pick.

 

[Ben Holt]

My predischlist for the final two.

 

[Lamperouge]

How well do you think she'd be received by fans if she is in?

We'd probably see even more complaints about "anime" invading Smash and how the character is a "literal who".

 

[PeridotGX]

porky

How about this instead?

 

[Yoshi-Thomas]

My predischlist for the final two.
View attachment 311728

Impossible. It's been confirmed that Master Chief is Crash Bandicoot in disguise.

Proof: you've never seen them together in the same room.

 

[N3ON]

It’s just a shame that GetsuFumaDen won’t be out by the end of Ultimate. I would love a Spirit Event based on something this gorgeous.

I'd say good news bad news on that one.

Good news is I wouldn't be surprised if spirit events continued for a while after the characters ended. Bad news is that's still no guarantee of anything.

My predischlist for the final two.
View attachment 311728

High hopes

 

[CannonStreak]

We'd probably see even more complaints about "anime" invading Smash and how the character is a "literal who".

That is what I was thinking.

Probably more "shill pick" and "flavor of the month" comments by virtue of being a first party...

That, too.

 

[Ben Holt]

Impossible. It's been confirmed that Master Chief is Crash Bandicoot in disguise.

Proof: you've never seen them together in the same room.

I told SnakeFighter64 that my name for these two is Crashter Chief.
But she said her prediction is Namco-Bandaicoot. And I conceded that her pun was superior.

 

[Merengue]

After pass 1 I'm fully convinced the Absolute Safe Capsule spirit is in fact supposed to be referencing Porky, especially since it's a legendary class spirit. If Porky missing a spirit meant he was getting a character, that would've made sense during the first pass, but not during pass 2 when characters from the base game are back in consideration.

In the case of King Boo, sure a spirit event not coming with Luigi's Mansion 3 might seem odd at first, except when you remember Yoshi's Crafted World is in the same situation as it, which means it's not exactly a situation unique to LM3. For Luigi's Mansion 3 we got the suction shot as Luigi's grab for Ultimate, and for Yoshi's Crafted World we got a special skin for Yoshi. So yes the two games did get representation in the base game, and tbh the new grab probably did more representation for LM3 than a simple spirit event considering every Luigi player spams grabs.

As for Decidueye, him being a starter for Legends might be a point in his favor, but that game isn't releasing until next year. Pokemon always shills mons from the new games and that's been the case for three Smash games now. But for Legends I feel that it's too far away to actually be in consideration when the pass got picked during 2019. If we do get a shillmon it'll be someone from gen 8, and considering that game got a spirit event I heavily doubt we'll see a Pokemon in pass 2.

Maybe Porky was considered for fp1/base but had to be delayed for some reason. Maybe he was originally supposed to be a boss, but changed their minds and turn him into a playable character. I'm sure the team used the empty version of the ASC with intent.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Does anyone know when this interview happened? Cause if it was fairly recent I think Arle got Hayabusa’d:

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Man, I’m telling y’all to stop listening to interviews because at this point the whole industry is aware we’re looking at them with utmost precision for confirmation or disconfirmation and it’s heavily likely misdirection is involved. Kiryu, Hayabusa, and Arle and more still have a pretty damn good shot despite their interviews imo.

Edit: I may be a little biased here but every time we’re sure something disconfirms something a wrench is thrown in it pretty fast.

 

[N3ON]

Does anyone know when this interview happened? Cause if it was fairly recent I think Arle got Hayabusa’d:

Last October, so after FP2 had been decided:

[Entrevista] Hablamos con el productor de Puyo Puyo Tetris acerca de su secuela, colaborar con Kirby, Arle en Smash y más - Nintenderos

¡Aquí estamos de nuevo! Y es que en esta ocasión, hemos tenido el placer de hablar con Mizuki Hosoyamada, productor veterano en la industria que, tras pasar por el Sonic Team ahora es el principal encargado de la serie de Puyo Puyo Tetris, que este mismo mes de diciembre celebra el lanzamiento...

www.nintenderos.com

However, while I don't think we'll get Arle, this statement isn't really any kind of answer. It's basically just saying it would be cool.

 

[Yoshi-Thomas]

Maybe Porky was considered for fp1/base but had to be delayed for some reason. Maybe he was originally supposed to be a boss, but changed their minds and turn him into a playable character.

Porky is a weird case.
I am 100% sure the ASC is not Porky. This joke would have worked much better if it said "Porky (Absolutely Safe Capsule)" and used the correct sprite. It also doesn't explain the statue's absence who was also present on the 3DS.
But, I'm not going to judge the timing - Steve could have been put in the FP1 why put him in the FP2 instead, and same for other characters, however choosing Porky as a DLC fighter would be a bold and weird move. Beside Piranha Plant, I don't see any other choice that would be as strange.
I keep an eye on him but, while not impossible, I find his odds low.

 

[RileyXY1]

If Arle is deconfirmed then we're likely not getting another Sega character unless it's another Sonic rep.

 

[chocolatejr9]

If Arle is deconfirmed then we're likely not getting another Sega character unless it's another Sonic rep.

sad Billy Hatcher noises

 

[SKX31]

I see some people explain the lack of LM3 spirits because of there being LM3 content in Smash already (Luigi using Poltergust G-00). The same could be applied to Yoshi's Crafted World with Crafted Yoshi being an alt. Dunno if I agree on that though. And Fire Emblem Three Houses obviously got spirits with Byleth.

But I feel like these (and MM2) are instances where a spirit event was just not bothered to be held.

It's a difficult call with Poltergust really. On one hand, the change was implemented at roughly the same time as LM3 was entering development and the grab was specifically themed around G-00's capabilities, but OTOH someone who hasn't played LM might not connect the grab to LM3 specifically.

And sure, it's one move - but as Wunderwaft pointed out, it's used extremely often. Partly because it's on the safer side as far as tether grabs are concerned, partly because the potential reward is immense. It's not just "zero to death" shenaningas, but even getting one or a couple follow ups off of a throw can net a decent chunk of damage. It's why a lot of people - whether casual or more competitively inclined - will have seen the grab in action and talk about it whenever Luigi comes up.

As an example: Here's a vid of Zackray playing Luigi (372K views). Notice that in the first 20 seconds he tries to grab 4 times in a row - getting it on his 4th try. And he doesn't stop grabbing.

I'm pretty damn sure Sakurai and co. know of this since they have access to Quickplay data and whatnot. The main question will be if Sakurai and co. factor in G-00's current presence when discussing LM3. And that's extremely difficult to tell. There's a chance that Nintendo still sees LM3 as an lucrative opportunity to base a Challenger Pack off of (whether we're talking King Boo or even Gooigi), but there's also a chance that Sakurai and co. see how often Poltergust is spammed and think "Yeah, this is enough advertisement for LM3. It's a lot of advertisement for being just one move".

 

[Wunderwaft]

Maybe Porky was considered for fp1/base but had to be delayed for some reason. Maybe he was originally supposed to be a boss, but changed their minds and turn him into a playable character. I'm sure the team used the empty version of the ASC with intent.

About the empty version of the ASC, it's more likely than not that the spirit team just copy pasted images they could find from google and they didn't pay much attention to the details. We even already have an example of a spirit that they copy pasted without knowing that it's an edited version.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Guys

there’s another pic

https://i.4cdn.org/v/1618679275782m.jpg (I can’t embed it for some reason)

...what is WRONG with Falco’s eyes??

Lol yo Pyra looks awful

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Welp, found this in the 4ch thread:

actual insider here, we don't use curved screens in development or testing, and showcases are done in big flat screens

Assuming they really are an actual insider, this can be thrown out as officially fake now. Was fun while it lasted at least

and now, I disappear again...

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Assuming they really are an actual insider, this can be thrown out as officially fake now. Was fun while it lasted at least

It should of been thrown out as fake as soon as it was posted. 4chan was smart and did just that lol

 

[N3ON]

Edit: I may be a little biased here but every time we’re sure something disconfirms something a wrench is thrown in it pretty fast.

How so? The majority of the interviews wherein a dev has insinuated whatever characters isn't going to be making it into Smash have not been followed with an inclusion that disproves that. Of course you're not going to get complete transparency, but most of them have been or will be accurate.

It seems like very rarely is a wrench thrown in to invalidate a claim. I mean there was Grant Kirkhope. And there was the SNK guy who gave an answer similar to this Arle one that basically just said it would be cool. But those are all that come to mind for the slightly deceptive ones.

Were I a betting woman, I would let it ride with non-committal statements like the aforementioned one. But with ones more definitively negative, I'd take my chips off the table, because those rarely pay out.

Welp, found this in the 4ch thread:

Assuming they really are an actual insider, this can be thrown out as officially fake now. Was fun while it lasted at least

and now, I disappear again...

Also they're blurry sideways pictures in 2021.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Sakurai's cat is the bonus fighter.

Proving once and for all that Mii fighters don't deconfirm.

 

[JOJONumber691]

Another 4chan "leak", though this time it's not a new character.

View attachment 311707

Apparently an extension to World of Light.

Probably fake (good old blurry pic from an angle) but I do wish for something more for the adventure mode.

Also I appreciate the Fusion armor for Samus.

100% Fake. I can tell by Pyra’s Leggings being pitch black, the Blur, it not being in Japanese, Fusion Suit Samus, these models looking Ingame! I could go on but you get my point by now this is definitely fake!

 

[Wunderwaft]

At least props to the leaker for attempting to incite discussion in a barren speculation scene, even if the leak is clearly fake lol.

With that said I'm still waiting for that one super well done leak that is secretly a uniquely modded character like that Goku video we saw.

 

[Louie G.]

Does anyone know when this interview happened? Cause if it was fairly recent I think Arle got Hayabusa’d:

This is old news, and it's not even close to disconfirming Arle.

Question: Would you like to see Arle in Smash, and do you think she would be the best choice for the series?
Answer: It would be cool if Arle was in Smash, and she would be the best choice for the series.

Saying you'd like to see your character in Smash by answering a direct question about a specific character under a hypothetical isn't breaking NDA. Being "Hayabusa'd" (which is actually being "Doomguy-ed") is getting a response expressing directly that there are no plans for this, that they don't believe Nintendo wants it or provoking a rally cry from fans to "make it happen!" This is as straight edge as it gets.

This is a very standard answer saying the obvious - of course a developer wants their character in Smash. What's funny is how this actually disqualified one of the most common arguments about Arle, being a misunderstood statement about why Puyo Puyo was denied a fighting game of its own.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

How so? The majority of the interviews wherein a dev has insinuated whatever characters isn't going to be making it into Smash have not been followed with an inclusion that disproves that. Of course you're not going to get complete transparency, but most of them have been or will be accurate.

It seems like very rarely is a wrench thrown in to invalidate a claim. I mean there was Grant Kirkhope. And there was the SNK guy who gave an answer similar to this Arle one that basically just said it would be cool. But those are all that come to mind for the slightly deceptive ones.

As with most rules that have been brought up in the past such as they have to have Nintendo History, Spirits Disconfirm, we can’t get more than 2 from the same company, we can’t get more than 1 from the same series, and we can’t get one from the same series that isn’t an echo, just because it has yet to happen doesn’t mean it cannot happen. And in this instance it HAS already happened which you mention above in the SNK and Grant Kirkhope circle. However there are also interviews such as the Doom Slayer one where there’s complete transparency where that character can ALMOST be ruled out but even not completely because we know there could be misdirection. We don’t know because each interview is different and taking what they say at face value is much easier and safer than taking a wait and see approach.

Were I a betting woman, I would let it ride with non-committal statements like the aforementioned one. But with ones more definitively negative, I'd take my chips off the table, because those rarely pay out.

Of course if I were betting then I’d bet against EVERY character because let’s face it every character is much more likely to NOT happen than to happen because the sheer amount of characters that are possible compared to the spots we have left. Every character has about a 2% chance of happening when there’s at least a hundred candidates and 2 spots left. So whether or not we take interviews at face value or not you’re much better off to bet against a character. Which honestly is fine because anyone who does that is much more likely to be correct and being correct feels good but that doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s an impossibility of a character happening because they were mentioned in an interview. Because at this point in this fandom if a character is mentioned in regards to Smash by a person of a company it’s an instant death nail for them. Which to me is kind of baffling since, more often than not, characters that are considered “never evers” for self indulgent reasons are the ones that end up slipping out of speculation and end up making it in.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I'd love for a developer involved with a character no one really wants in Smash to bring them up in an interview.

Accolade Rep: I'll definitely address your curiosity about Bubsy in being in Smash.
Interviewer: Well I didn't really think to bring that-
Accolade Rep: There's obviously been a lot of fans asking us and Nintendo about him getting in Ultimate.
Interviewer: A lot? So more than two?
Accolade Rep: Obviously we'd love to see him there and he would be a great fit for Smash given his status.
Interviewer: ...I'm sorry, just to be clear we're talking about Bubsy, right?

 

[7NATOR]

I heard people say the lack of Luigi's Mansion 3 spirits is a sign of Waluigi being playable...

 

[Cosmic77]

Arle is one of those characters who'd probably be in Smash by now if Nintendo didn't care to some extent about catering to the West.

While she does have a very, VERY small presence outside Japan, I don't know if it's enough for Nintendo to choose her over one of the countless third-parties who are better known worldwide. She could get in, and I'm not implying she can't. I just feel like it'll be an uphill battle. Even when we look exclusively at Sega reps, I feel like a second Sonic or Persona character would be more likely.

 

[SKX31]

Also they're blurry sideways pictures in 2021.

...I do not look forward to future DeepFake'd Smash leaks. Especially not the point in time when those are old hat.

I'd love for a developer involved with a character no one really wants in Smash to bring them up in an interview.

Accolade Rep: I'll definitely address your curiosity about Bubsy in being in Smash.
Interviewer: Well I didn't really think to bring that-
Accolade Rep: There's obviously been a lot of fans asking us and Nintendo about him getting in Ultimate.
Interviewer: A lot? So more than two?
Accolade Rep: Obviously we'd love to see him there and he would be a great fit for Smash given his status.
Interviewer: ...I'm sorry, just to be clear we're talking about Bubsy, right?

Is this the time of the year when I bring up Garena Free Fire?

Garena Free Fire has overtaken PUBG Mobile to become the top battle royale game on mobile during Q1 in the US.

Free Fire is a powerhouse on mobile in Southeast Asia, South Asia and South America and has grown silently in the US over the past year. https://t.co/kihL2sEQnn pic.twitter.com/HsYAOv8Zfc

— Daniel Ahmad (@ZhugeEX) April 8, 2021

Because my inner Waluigi would love the collective WTF if those devs got interviewed and they said that they'd want their character in Smash.