Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I mean...what about Persona and SMT?

Sigh.

Like I said twice, I don't think not being recently on a Nintendo console makes you less likely: The fact that Monster Hunter's big game is coming out during the pass and Devil May Cry's big game is incapable of getting a port makes Dante less likely.

Why the **** is CacoMallow still discussed!?

I'm gonna guess either boredom or that Smash Speculation is again veering closer to the Fumble Dimension. I'm hoping the former.

Actually, it was to dunk on someone, which is sooo much better.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

I think it is safe to say that speculation has gotten boring for everybody

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Reject Cacamallow
Return to Five Year Plan

 

[Yoshi-Thomas]

Just passing by (once every four or five months lol) to share my thoughts about speculation for Smash.
For starters, I enjoyed all of the DLC characters. There are some characters that I play more than others, but none of them had terrible movesets and they were good to see characters.
There's one thing that I noticed with this game's speculation. It is that it was really, really easy to guess most of the base roster/DLC line-up.
No, obviously I didn't manage to predict every single characters, fortunately (or I would play the lottery). And my "guesses" before the June 2018 definitely changed. But once you get something to work with, juste like for Brawl and Smash For, speculation becomes much easier.
After Ridley and Daisy's reveals, King K. Rool and Dark Samus sounded like obvious additions to me, because there was no way that Ridley would get in the game without K. Rool, while Dark Samus was the easy-to-go echo. Chrom was also a pretty obvious name to call, as well as Shadow and Ken (even before we knew Richter was coming with Simon).
In the case of Simon Belmont, we had rumors for him, so mentioned a lot too for this game's base roster.
Isabelle is the new face of Animal Crossing, so she was highly likely, though I expected her to be an echo fighter. And finally, Incineroar was also guaranteed (him or Mimikyu) with his important role in the movie that released at the time. As well as rumors but I already anticipated a Pokemon -and so did most of you, I believe, even if it was not Incineroar himself.
The biggest surprises were the absence of Shadow as an echo fighter and Piranha Plant's addition in the final direct. As well as Richter. But overall, it was not the hardest task in the world to predict the new characters. Especially with rumors.

For the DLC, I did manage to get three characters out of five for the first pass. Obviously not Joker, I didn't even think about him as a possibility. But, due to the rumors going on for months, I expected the hero from Dragon Quest to be a fighter, and Banjo after knowing that there were Microsoft talks and seeing that the Ballot was really taken into account with K. Rool and Ridley, I was optimistic. And it did pay off.
Didn't see Terry at all until the SNK logo leak, but I won't take that into account; we all understood who would get in, lol!
Byleth, though, I've seen him coming from miles away, but not for the first pass, that I expected to be filled with only third-party characters. I really thought he would be added later after the absence of spirit event, but no, Sakurai completely suprised me.

The second pass speculation is not over yet, but at the moment, it's going as well as the first pass. I didn't expect an ARMS character, and absolutely not MinMin since I didn't even know which characters were in the game (and at the time, due to the coronavirus, I wasn't as invested into speculation). Steve did break through, as I was still expecting the Minecraft content to apppear in some form, and with how big the game is, a character seemed inevitable.
And this one might surprise you, but I was really, 100% expecting Sephiroth. And for a dumb reason.
I just couldn't imagine Cloud not having a usable spirit from his own franchise. These spirits could have been added later, as an event or something, but I really had this thought, while also knowing Square-Enix were tough nuts, that Sephiroth would appear in this pass. (If some of you want to check my posts about this, I'll gladly share them in MP).
Finally, Pyra and Mythra... I didn't really expected them alone. And it's probably the most infuriating characters that appeared in this pass. After MinMin's addition, I really thought that Rex was getting in, after Sakurai's comment on Rex and how he really wanted to correctly represent Xenoblade Chronicles 2... But sadly, my man was left out. I would have loved for Roc to be part of his moveset, but apparently that will not happen anymore.

For DLCs I expected and still didn't get, I'll go in order: for FP1, I expected Ryu Hayabusa, because he was mentioned a lot among "leakers". Ultimately, that didn't work out. I also expected Porky in the first pass due to his absence, but didn't happen. During FP2, after Min Min, I was going for Rayman, having a chance again. But as it goes, I'm becoming less optimistic about him.

That's it for my thoughts in this game's speculation. I think the only time in Smash we really couldn't predict anything at all was during the DLC period of Smash for 3ds/Wiiu. It's the only time where I didn't see a single DLC character coming (without leaks from datamining, of course).
Brawl's new characters were mostly easy to guess (Diddy Kong, DeDeDe, Sonic, Meta Knight, Ike, Wario and Olimar) as well as the next game (Little Mac, Shulk, Palutena, Pac Man, Megaman and, to an extent, someone from Fire Emblem Awakening even if Chrom was more dominant).

What about you, people? Do you think that speculation for Smash, be it Ultimate's DLC or in general, was really hard, or overall you have seen a lot of characters coming?

 

[Gengar84]

Stefan, as we Swedes spell it. (pretty much the same pronounciation though so it doesn't matter).



I get that, but it's also a tricky balancing act in the end. One of K. Rool's already existing drawbacks is that when he gets opened up he's at risk of getting opened up hard (like most super-heavies - big frames + high weight does that) Yes, Rool can survive and tank numerous beatings before getting KOed - it's not unusual to see him get to 200 % outside of strong spikes or someone attacking his Up-B from the side - but if he was taller... well, that issue would be amplified. There are already some competitive-leaning people who downplay combos on DK because they're easier to land on him.

That's probably one reason Sakurai worried about being "Too big" - one of his taunts is him standing upright after all. Even so, he's Bowser's size + Ike's weight.

Now at a casual / low level it won't matter much because people aren't generally going to care that much about that (although a lot of casual players want to improve - if just to the point they'll be the best in the room). And honestly, that's fine. Then again, Smash - as with any competitive game really - fares best when it's relatively balanced for both lower-skilled, medium-skilled and higher-skilled players.



I'm gonna guess either boredom or that Smash Speculation is again veering closer to the Fumble Dimension. I'm hoping the former.

Yeah, I can totally understand that. I’ve been playing Smash since the beginning with 64 but I’ve always been a strictly casual player so I never really worry too much about stuff like that. I see a lot of other fighting games with huge characters like Sentinel in MvC and they work but I imagine balancing those games are very different than Smash. I would love if there was some perfect balance where you could buff large characters enough to remain competitive but not so much that they’re broken but I wouldn’t know the first thing about how to do that.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I think it is safe to say that speculation has gotten boring for everybody

Honestly it kind of seems like we're at the same point we were with the disconfirmation list leak:

• Doom? Disconfirmed.
• Ryu? Suspect, though in favor of what is indeterminable. Most people have jumped to disconfirmation.
• Anything from Capcom? Unlikely.
• Anything from Namco? Extremely unlikely.
• Anything from Microsoft or SquareEnix? Disconfirmed.
• Anything from SNK? Also extremely unlikely.

So what have we got? Crash Bandicoot, and a bunch of stuff that seems more like a pipe dream (even though it's probably more likely at this point).

 

[Rie Sonomura]

logs back into Smashboards out of curiosity thinking at least some noteworthy discussion is going on
still discussing Cacomallow in 2021
logs out of Smashboards

btw I did happen to see as I was catching up the possibility of Square Enix double dipping... but still no mention of my boi Neku

so I guess it still stands, see y’all around E3, or earlier if there’s an April/May reveal and it’s one of my MWs

and to those that did so, thanks for the well wishes uwu

 

[3BitSaurus]

I'm gonna guess either boredom or that Smash Speculation is again veering closer to the Fumble Dimension. I'm hoping the latter.

Fixed.

btw I did happen to see as I was catching up the possibility of Square Enix double dipping... but still no mention of my boi Neku

so I guess it still stands, see y’all around E3, or earlier if there’s an April/May reveal and it’s one of my MWs

and to those that did so, thanks for the well wishes uwu

No probs. And heads up, I think today is update friday in LoR, so careful when looking stuff online for spoilers. Take care!

 

[SharkLord]

• Ryu? Suspect, though in favor of what is indeterminable. Most people have jumped to disconfirmation.

He actually did get a hard deconfirm, after three interviews of the same phrase over and over again
[Entrevista] Hablamos con Fumihiko Yasuda de Team NINJA sobre Ninja Gaiden, Ryu Hayabusa en Smash, próximos proyectos y más - Nintenderos - Nintendo Switch, Switch Lite y 3DS

"There are no plans right now" seems like a pretty definitive statement on the matter.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Anything from SNK? Also extremely unlikely.

Eh, Metal Slug is still rather underrepresented despite being just as big if not bigger than KoF.

 

[drag0nscythe]

I still can't get over this. My reasons for disqualifying AT's may sound ridiculous, but at least it's not "I find them boring. Let's hope for someone I don't find boring".

It is called preference.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

He actually did get a hard deconfirm, after three interviews of the same phrase over and over again

This must have happened after we talked about it last. I wasn't aware of this.

 

[RileyXY1]

Eh, Metal Slug is still rather underrepresented despite being just as big if not bigger than KoF.

If SNK was getting two fighters then I think that Terry would have only had FF and KoF content in his pack rather than content from SNK's entire library of games.

 

[Perkilator]

It is called preference.

You could at least just say "I find Ryu Hayabusa boring" and leave it at that without using it as a reason to say "I think Ryu Hayabusa is out".

 

[Louie G.]

I think it is safe to say that speculation has gotten boring for everybody

I think at this stage in speculation we've simultaneously reached the point where "anything can happen", yet the pool also feels more confined than ever.

Toward the end it's easy for disappointment to set in early and accept that your MWs may not make it, and a lot of fan favorites and exciting prospects got shut down or seem far fetched due to concrete evidence / precedent. We can try and stretch out a little bit and humor some other ideas, but it doesn't distract from the currently unchallenged idea that the presence or lack of Mii costumes from a given company dominate the perception of those characters' odds. Reaching the end of the line the prospect of more really huge reveals feel less plausible.

There are still opportunities to talk about plenty of characters, but we're definitely reaching a point where the possibilities don't feel as endless as they did even a couple months ago. So it's definitely slowed down a lot.

 

[Gengar84]

btw I did happen to see as I was catching up the possibility of Square Enix double dipping... but still no mention of my boi Neku

so I guess it still stands, see y’all around E3, or earlier if there’s an April/May reveal and it’s one of my MWs

and to those that did so, thanks for the well wishes uwu

Hey I definitely feel you there. All of my favorite Square-Enix characters are even less talked about than Neku. In fact, I’m not sure if any of them have ever been brought up for discussion by anyone other than me lol. For reference, those characters are Magus, Xemnas, Raziel, Vincent, and Lulu. In my case, they pretty much all have no chance so it makes sense nobody talks about them.

 

[RileyXY1]

CacoMallow should be buried by now, as it is unlikely to be real unless Square Enix gets a second fighter this pass.

 

[Technomage]

And finally, Incineroar was also guaranteed (him or Mimikyu) with his important role in the movie that released at the time.

Wait, Pokemon had a movie featuring Incineroar?! That does explains quite a bit of why it was chosen (also proves to me that I've been living under a rock, heh).

 

[RileyXY1]

Wait, Pokemon had a movie featuring Incineroar?! That does explains quite a bit of why it was chosen (also proves to me that I've been living under a rock, heh).

Incineroar had a somewhat major role in movie 21, although Sakurai only chose it because he wanted to include a pro-wrestler type moveset in the game.

 

[SharkLord]

Yeah, we're in the endgame now. A lot of potential options are down and out, and I guess we're just not interested in discussing any other characters. Crash is the last of the really "safe" picks, though some people still bring up Master Chief. Aside from that, most people think the big companies are out due to the Miis or don't feel like taking any risks with smaller ones. Aside from that, we've already exhausted just about any topic there is left, and now the well is dry. I suppose we could submit some characters to talk about that don't get much discussion, but I dunno how much that will take with everybody else.

 

[drag0nscythe]

You could at least just say "I find Ryu Hayabusa boring" and leave it at that without using it as a reason to say "I think Ryu Hayabusa is out".

I literally say.
I am counting Hayabusa out. I find him boring. Lets hope for a more interesting chracter.
And the discussion is on if he is still in the running. I dont think he is. and I find him boring.

 

[RileyXY1]

Yeah. It's gonna be a long wait until E3, unless they decide to announce CP10 earlier and unveil CP11 at E3 instead.

 

[Perkilator]

I literally say.
I am counting Hayabusa out. I find him boring. Lets hope for a more interesting chracter.

Don't pretend you didn't say this in the same sentence.

I am counting Hayabusa out.

 

[drag0nscythe]

Don't pretend you didn't say this in the same sentence.

The discussion at hand was "Hayabusa has been mentioned 3+ times in interviews as still waiting for talks." I am pretty sure it is obvious the first part is in regard to that discussion.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Yeah, we're in the endgame now. A lot of potential options are down and out, and I guess we're just not interested in discussing any other characters. Crash is the last of the really "safe" picks, though some people still bring up Master Chief. Aside from that, most people think the big companies are out due to the Miis or don't feel like taking any risks with smaller ones. Aside from that, we've already exhausted just about any topic there is left, and now the well is dry. I suppose we could submit some characters to talk about that don't get much discussion, but I dunno how much that will take with everybody else.

Is it time for another round of Dragalia Lost discussion?

 

[Guynamednelson]

If SNK was getting two fighters then I think that Terry would have only had FF and KoF content in his pack rather than content from SNK's entire library of games.

If Metal Slug was 100% out they'd acknowledge its popularity with a spirit and a Mii costume at the very least. Cameos are understandable since KoF doesn't usually include MS fighters.

 

[Gengar84]

Yeah, we're in the endgame now. A lot of potential options are down and out, and I guess we're just not interested in discussing any other characters. Crash is the last of the really "safe" picks, though some people still bring up Master Chief. Aside from that, most people think the big companies are out due to the Miis or don't feel like taking any risks with smaller ones. Aside from that, we've already exhausted just about any topic there is left, and now the well is dry. I suppose we could submit some characters to talk about that don't get much discussion, but I dunno how much that will take with everybody else.

That works for me. I usually prefer more niche characters compared to mainstream anyways. In fact, only a few characters in my top 50 or so most wanted have really been affected by recent news.

 

[UltimateCyborgOverlord]

Wait, Pokemon had a movie featuring Incineroar?! That does explains quite a bit of why it was chosen (also proves to me that I've been living under a rock, heh).

I know he was in that I Choose You 20th Anniversary movie.

For reasons unexplained, they made Incineroar run on all fours, and it looked really stupid.

It wasn't a very good movie IMO

Spoiler

So the whole plot of the movie is a reimagining of the first episode where Ash meets Pikachu and sees Ho-Oh... only THIS time he joins up with two new people who replace Misty and Brock for what ultimately ends up being no good reason since they pretty much do nothing... as Ash runs off to go find Ho-Oh and battle it. THE WHOLE MOVIE is Ash running off to track down Ho-Oh and fight it. They try to reenact the Bye Bye Butterfree thing, but it lacks the emotional impact and is very mechanical. But anyway he does find Ho-Oh.... after the WHOLE BLOODY MOVIE he finds the blasted Ho-Oh and it just CUTS AWAY. THE WHOLE THING THE MOVIE WAS BUILDING UP TO and you don't even get to see it. He just comes out of the Pokemon Center and goes "HAHAHAHA I FOUGHT HO-OH" with no indication of who won or whatever... such a waste of time. I actually think it was after this movie that I kinda became so much more critical of Pokemon which I am otherwise a lifelong fan of.

 

[SharkLord]

Is it time for another round of Dragalia Lost discussion?

Depends. Will you be able to write something up that gets everyone hooked and willing to keep the conversation going? Even if not everyone thinks he's likely, I do think it's possible to get some people invested in him.

Alright, first question: Are there any other Dragalia reps you'd want aside from Euden?

 

[Perkilator]

The discussion at hand was "Hayabusa has been mentioned 3+ times in interviews as still waiting for talks." I am pretty sure it is obvious the first part is in regard to that discussion.

You still followed up with "I find him boring" being used as a reason to count him out.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Lets look at Cacomallow critically, shall we?

The costumes themselves are impressive, but modders have shown it to be fakable.

So the main part of the leak is already capable of being faked. How about the other parts of it?
The timer says 2:30 as opposed to 02:30, meaning either the debug mode was for some reason changed or the faker screwed up.

When was Cacomallow first released? Over a year ago at this point. Meaning either the Smash team felt like withholding both costumes for whatever reason or the leak is bogus.

What do we have to imply its real? Uhhhhh....Ken? The proven fakable skins look good, but thats basically it.

So, why exactly is this still a discussion? Just let it go. Leaks come around, then they die, tis the circle of life.

 

[Technomage]

I suppose we could submit some characters to talk about that don't get much discussion, but I dunno how much that will take with everybody else.

How about we talk about an Etrian Odyssey character? My most wanted EO rep would be the Imperial from EO 4 and Nexus. It could have a moveset that involves ludicrously powerful attacks, but with major cooldown times (just like in the games), but with a few options of decreasing the cooldown (such as maybe having its Shield Special command be Heat Sink).

Since I don't expect a playable EO rep, though, I'd be content with just a Mii Swordfighter costume for the Imps.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Depends. Will you be able to write something up that gets everyone hooked and willing to keep the conversation going? Even if not everyone thinks he's likely, I do think it's possible to get some people invested in him.

Alright, first question: Are there any other Dragalia reps you'd want aside from Euden?

Depends. How exactly do they want to represent Dragalia Lost? Euden would be the best for that, but there are certainly other characters who are quite popular, such as Luca, Notte, and Mym. Speaking of Mym, they could also add Midgardsormr to represent the Dragons, assuming he isn't a transformation for Euden.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

So looking at potential characters from existing series:

• Street Fighter: Chun-Li is possible, as the star power she carries could overcome her barriers.
• Animal Crossing: Tom Nook is possible as an Animal Crossing: New Horisons tie in, but unlikely since the game taking the world by storm didn't really happen until after the second pass was locked in, and the game also already had a tie in character.
• Sonic the Hedgehog: We've got a good handful of solid choices here, so Tails, Knuckles, Shadow, and Dr. Eggman are all decently possible candidates here. EDIT: Forgot Assist Trophies. lol
• Metal Gear: Maybe Raiden could join the battle, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
• Pokémon: Pokémon could potentially get some sort of tie-in character, but I don't think that's particularly likely at this point.

That's about it. Not a lot of options there, and most of them are extremely unlikely. It's pretty much just Chun-Li and a Sonic the Hedgehog character.

 

[Perkilator]

So looking at potential characters from existing series:

• Street Fighter: Chun-Li is possible, as the star power she carries could overcome her barriers.
• Animal Crossing: Tom Nook is possible as an Animal Crossing: New Horisons tie in, but unlikely since the game taking the world by storm didn't really happen until after the second pass was locked in, and the game also already had a tie in character.
• Sonic the Hedgehog: We've got a good handful of solid choices here, so Tails, Knuckles, Shadow, and Dr. Eggman are all decently possible candidates here.
• Metal Gear: Maybe Raiden could join the battle, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
• Pokémon: Pokémon could potentially get some sort of tie-in character, but I don't think that's particularly likely at this point.

That's about it. Not a lot of options there, and most of them are extremely unlikely. It's pretty much just Chun-Li and a Sonic the Hedgehog character.

What about Kirby?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

What about Kirby?

I think if we were to get a Kirby character we would have already seen the game they're coming from, and I find it highly unlikely for that game to be Kirby Star Allies since it had much less of an impact than ARMS and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 as far as I know.

 

[drag0nscythe]

You still followed up with "I find him boring" being used as a reason to count him out.

I will make sure to add spaces between the sentences next time because the conversation was specifically on the interviews.

It was the conversation at hand.

But it this still not change my opinion. He is out because of the interviews and I still find him boring.

 

[Louie G.]

Aside from that, most people think the big companies are out due to the Miis or don't feel like taking any risks with smaller ones.

For this reason I feel, if anything, SEGA is worth a lot more discussion than it's getting right now - I think if any of the current major players get something, they are far and wide the frontrunner. No content at all in this pass, making it the only totally absent third party other than SNK... which is a bit more debatable. I've been trying to pioneer that a bit but it's hard, because at the same time it's not like we have a ton of options that feel plausible either.

But let's break it down a lil for the sake of discussion, since I've already got those gears turning.

Eggman is the only one that sees consistent discussion, which is funny because I'm entirely convinced that Eggman is not happening due to the particular way Sephiroth was promoted. I'm more partial toward Tails' chances, but it's hard for some people to digest that idea with his Mii Costume existing (even within a grey area). In general I think more Sonic is the most digestible for most, and it makes sense since Sonic is by and large Sega's most profitable franchise.

Outside of Sonic there's Arle, who I will always campaign for but I've lost a good deal of confidence in... but Puyo Puyo is a massively significant series, Sega's second biggest and one that has had longstanding history and presence on Nintendo. It's hard for a more abstract character like her to take off because of her cutesy appearance and unconventional genre, although it seems like most people at least acknowledge her as a possibility.

Kiryu is in a weird position because of contradicting interviews, but neither of them really help him out very much. From an interview saying they don't believe Sakurai wants Kiryu in Smash, to the other where they say it would be wrong to have Kiryu punch women. Even if we take the latter out of the picture, the former isn't great. Otherwise Yakuza has really been growing in popularity and would be worth keeping an eye on.

Sakura exists, and Sakura Wars has been emerging as a major player for Sega and inching toward more of a western presence... but I think she needs a little more time. This is one of those characters where I could see them having a much stronger case next time around. As of now I think Sakura Wars just has some more growing to do in reaching a wider international audience.

And then there's still an opportunity for Shin Megami Tensei, most notably Demi-Fiend I would say. It's been a bit unfairly counted out because of Joker, but Persona really is treated like its own separate thing and explicitly SMT content literally doesn't exist in Smash yet. SMTV is on the horizon, Nocturne remake is a thing, there's at least a case to me made for this one but there's always that slight dissociation because Joker made it.

 

[Perkilator]

I will make sure to add spaces between the sentences next time because the conversation was specifically on the interviews.

It was the conversation at hand.

But it this still not change my opinion. He is out because of the interviews and I still find him boring.

Then you could've at least worded it as "Welp, I guess this means Hayabusa's out. I find him kinda boring, anyway."

 

[drag0nscythe]

Then you could've at least worded it as "Welp, I guess this means Hayabusa's out. I find him kinda boring, anyway."

I speak the way I speak. I basically said that.