Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I really wonder what they'd do with Ori aesthetically in Super Smash Bros. You know how the Z-Saber is canonically blue (it will be blue in most, if not all of his artwork), but is green in gameplay (with Super Smash Bros. being a notable exception)? It's so that the sky blue color doesn't get lost against the sky backdrops.

Ori has this problem with their entire body, and unlike Rivals of Aether, Super Smash Bros. does not outline its characters, so I'm not sure that's what they'd go with. Or...huh. Do you think they'd just give Ori an outline, or do you think they'd do something else?

 

[chocolatejr9]

Yeah, of course, nobody truly is safe from sudden deconfirmation but Crash already has a good enough deal going for him. He's the one character not in Smash who's arguably had the most going for him. Nothing has been here to hit him like a truck yet. If it does happen, I'd knock him from the safe pick list.

Actually, quick question: how much did Crash 4 sell in Japan again? I feel if there's ANYTHING that could POSSIBLY hold him back, it would be that his revival has had a harder time in Japan than in the West.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Ori was Deconfirmed a while back ago

Moon Studios Would "Love" To See Ori In Smash Bros. Ultimate, Tells Fans To Tweet Head Of Xbox About It - Nintendo Life

oof

mii costume at least? make them a premiium brawler with like light of nibel as a song or something too

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Actually, quick question: how much did Crash 4 sell in Japan again? I feel if there's ANYTHING that could POSSIBLY hold him back, it would be that his revival has had a harder time in Japan than in the West.

Crash 4 is too new to factor into decisions since it's came out during the pass. You'd want N' Sane Trilogy data.

 

[Louie G.]

I feel if there's ANYTHING that could POSSIBLY hold him back, it would be that his revival has had a harder time in Japan than in the West.

I'm trying not to rag on Crash too hard so please don't take this as me being rude about it, but why do people always act this way about Crash?

In the sense that like, why is this the only thing that could hold him back? There are plenty of characters who are worthy of inclusion in Smash, all with completely independent and unique reasons for being viable. Plenty of characters who match Crash's notoriety and overall significance, others who offer just as much if not more unique gameplay mechanics and concepts.

I'm unsure why Crash is always treated as such a special case who has the world going for him, when that could be applied toward a bunch of characters under the right lens. The reason Crash has been perceived this way feels like just because the community decided he's the one they wanted to rally behind next. But yknow, when you break it down and factor in plenty of other iconic, exciting, refreshing characters... maybe Crash just doesn't have an objective "thing" that holds him back, he could very well just not be a priority.

I thought Hayabusa and Monster Hunter made sense from just about every angle, but obviously Nintendo's values and priorities just lie elsewhere for now. I'm not saying that you should just disqualify any popular / expected character either, just that there are clearly more factors than we're aware of and furthermore, limited space that unfortunately not every character can inhabit.

 

[Perkilator]

oWo what's this

"What's her specials?"
"Show a photo"

Okay, in all seriousness, I would've given that top quote a bit more thought in regards to what specials Ayumi could have (I already have that question answered anyways)

 

[SNEKeater]

My perspective on Steve is that there's no way he wasn't always going to make it in some capacity. Chances are the initial plan beyond FP1 was just for standalone DLC packs more akin to Smash 4's DLC model, with a few characters on standby set to release that way (IMO Steve and Sephiroth, easily - they seem more intensive from a development and negotiation standpoint respectively) but the success of Joker's release and general excitement around Smash being the deciding factor in moving forward with a full second pass.

The characters decided later were, in my opinion, probably easier characters to grab like Min Min and Pyra / Mythra. Hence the pretty clear disparity between these massive characters like Steve and Sephiroth with more lowkey Nintendo picks (not saying that's a bad thing, btw).

This makes sense. If you're right I guess we would be getting another popular character, probably a third party one, and a smaller one, even if it's because of being more close to Nintendo. In other words, probably a first party character.

I'm trying not to rag on Crash too hard so please don't take this as me being rude about it, but why do people always act this way about Crash?

In the sense that like, why is this the only thing that could hold him back? There are plenty of characters who are worthy of inclusion in Smash, all with completely independent and unique reasons for being viable. Plenty of characters who match Crash's notoriety and overall significance, others who offer just as much if not more unique gameplay mechanics and concepts.

I'm unsure why Crash is always treated as such a special case who has the world going for him, when that could be applied toward a bunch of characters under the right lens. The reason Crash has been perceived this way feels like just because the community decided he's the one they wanted to rally behind next. But yknow, when you break it down and factor in plenty of other iconic, exciting, refreshing characters... maybe Crash just doesn't have an objective "thing" that holds him back, he could very well just not be a priority.

I completely agree. I like and want Crash but I don't get why he seems to be special for some people in regards to speculation. I believe he is a character that will make it into Smash eventually, but until a character is actually revealed and confirmed the best thing to do is to assume that said character isn't in the game.

Because the most likely outcome is that Crash will not be one of the remaining 2 DLC fighters and I can already see people asking why he never happened. Which could be said (and will be said, but probably less times) for any other character with some history or popularity behind.

 

[Louie G.]

Because the most likely outcome is that Crash will not be one of the remaining 2 DLC fighters and I can already see people asking why he never happened. Which could be said (and will be said, but probably less times) for any other character with some history or popularity behind.

I was in the trenches pioneering for Ridley and K. Rool for years, and these brand new character support groups think they can waltz in and get their character in within the same game? Where's the hardship?

In all seriousness, I feel like Ultimate's model has kind of given people this sense of immediate gratification. Like, the next big character becomes Crash after Banjo makes it so then everyone is biding their time for Crash to appear... when in reality a lot of these movements have taken several games to truly get somewhere. Crash has enough merit to be considered and possibly make it on his own terms, but I'm prepared to hear people acting shocked about why Crash didn't make it despite being so damn popular.

 

[Dinoman96]

The more I think about it, the more damning it really is that it took for Minecraft to become the best selling game of all time for Nintendo to finally be interested in including a character from a western IP in Smash Bros., which in turn opened the door for Banjo-Kazooie's inclusion because they were popular on the ballot and happened to be owned by the same company.

Crash WAS successful in Japan...but that's kinda the problem. Was. N. Sane Trilogy pretty much bombing in Japan may of made Nintendo overlook the character.

 

[RGFS]

I think Crash is decidedly pretty unsafe at this point, to be honest. I teetered back and forth on him after Pyra until we got Monster Hunter and Hayabusa's disconfirmations, but a lot has happened to put these big popular requests / heavily speculated characters into perspective. I still have some bit of belief in Master Chief, since Microsoft is already involved, but I feel like collaboration with a big company like Activision isn't the kind of thing we'd see this late in the pass. With Steve and Sephiroth being more frontloaded I personally envision them as the big pass sellers that Crash likely would have sat right alongside.

I'm personally not convinced we're going to see ANY additional companies, particularly given what I suggested before about later DLC decisions being easier grabs, but I feel that doesn't count out the possibility of a more humble, smaller company like Falcom or ArcSys joining the fray. Activision though, I really don't know. If Crash makes it it's probably because they felt people REALLY wanted him and Nintendo made a big push toward the end of negotiations to land him... which is a shaky stance to take, but that's probably the most feasible scenario I could see for Crash at this point in time.

Sorta ninja'd on the sentiment about Crash not being safe, but still figure my perspective on the situation is worth sharing.

It's an interesting way to look at it, but there's too much assuming and pattern dissecting in that thought process. That's the kind of thing Nintendo destroys with every other reveal. Nintendo is a huge company and in talks with plenty and plenty of companies all of the time. If Nintendo wants a character from anywhere, they'll get em unless the rights holder doesn't want to be in Smash. I guess one example for this pass is that they had to go to Mojang for Steve, it wasn't just Microsoft that time. They had to jump through a hoop and did it. This is like arguing they wouldn't add Microsoft into Smash since the first two characters were from Sega/Atlus and Square Enix or that after Banjo we wouldn't see a new company. It doesn't really carry real weight. It's too much of a fruitless assumption.

I'm trying not to rag on Crash too hard so please don't take this as me being rude about it, but why do people always act this way about Crash?

In the sense that like, why is this the only thing that could hold him back? There are plenty of characters who are worthy of inclusion in Smash, all with completely independent and unique reasons for being viable. Plenty of characters who match Crash's notoriety and overall significance, others who offer just as much if not more unique gameplay mechanics and concepts.

I'm unsure why Crash is always treated as such a special case who has the world going for him, when that could be applied toward a bunch of characters under the right lens. The reason Crash has been perceived this way feels like just because the community decided he's the one they wanted to rally behind next. But yknow, when you break it down and factor in plenty of other iconic, exciting, refreshing characters... maybe Crash just doesn't have an objective "thing" that holds him back, he could very well just not be a priority.

Oh yeah don't sweat it, it's not rude at all. Speculation is all in good fun for analyzing things to determine an outcome. I think what you're asking is fair. Crash has been talked about enough for so long that I am starting to see people "Geno" him. As in they doubt him harder as he gets speculated more but I think it's less fair in this case. Crash falls in line as one of those few characters like Mega Man or Sonic where Sakurai and Nintendo would think about it and agree to do it when they have the chance. His mascot appeal, his rivalry with Mario and Sonic, and him being essentially the original face of Playstation really helps. We've also seen no platformer character this Pass... No platformer character in FP2 despite Smash being a platform fighter is just odd. His lack of actual connection to Sony is also a huge boost. His moveset pool is insane and I don't think many people give it enough credit Way more potential than what Sonic could ever bring. Crash is one of the first and few western games to sell over a million in Japan. Crash as a brand caries and means more than Banjo in Japan just by looking at sales figures. Crash N-Sane trilogy did fine but Crash 4 hasn't done so well I think so I guess that would be the one problem but I don't think Nuts and Bolts sales stopped Banjo-Kazooie.

I mean... Crash could still totally not happen, but as it stands, he's doing just fine for now unless something comes up or I missed some detail.

The thing is, MH and Hayabusa were going smoothly, and then they got hit out of the blue. Sure, the Hunters had the Miis, but all eyes were on Lloyd at the time. Hayabusa didn't even have a Mii; He was just casually deconfirmed. There's also all the minor KT content scattered throughout; Yuri's AT, the AoC Spirits, and the portions of Byleth's trailer styled after Three Houses cutscenes. It seemed like Hayabusa ahd one foot in the door already,and then he was just silently ended. Even if Crash is the "most likely" candidate on paper, there's nothing protecting him from a sudden execution.

If it wasn't for fake leaks. Both characters were never as likely if you asked me. I never ever put em on my DLC speculation list. The same goes for the Doom Slayer sadly.

• Hayabusa always felt just as a maybe 50/50 to me. Not too big of a deal to be an absolute shoo-in, the little evidence he did have didn't really mean much except for leaps of assumptions, and worst of all, he also had to compete against Contra in terms of NES icons.
• Monster Hunter was already represented pretty well in Smash. Tbh, I wish my favorite series got music, an Assist Trophy, a World of Light segment, and a whole boss in Smash. The views on the Hunter representation were always iffy by the devs, MH Rise felt too new for discussion, and the real Capcom leak pointed to Nintendo paying for Rise to be an exclusive with no mention of Smash.

These were characters discussed in speculation but I never truly felt they mustered to Crash level. I was not surprised to see them get swatted away. By the time more concrete evidence against them came in, they already had real things going against them. Ryu Hayabusa is still possible for getting in though but I'd never bet on it.

 

[SharkLord]

Yeah, I agree that Crash is being propped up more than he actually is. He's big, yes, but he's not the end-all be-all with the entire universe smiling down on him. He just seems like any other pretty big character to me. Yeah, yeah, mascot and all, but that's still very much reliant on legacy. He's gone multiplatform nowadays, and it doesn't seem like Activision considers him their mascot like he was for the PlayStation brand. He's not as big as his PS1 glory days anymore. I've seen people saying that Crash has everything going for him, and that they'd be genuinely surprised if he doesn't get added, but I dunno. It doesn't seem to me like he's an extremely special case like everyone makes him out to be.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

The more I think about it, the more damning it really is that it took for Minecraft to become the best selling game of all time for Nintendo to finally be interested in including a character from a western IP in Smash Bros., which in turn opened the door for Banjo-Kazooie's inclusion because they were popular on the ballot and happened to be owned by the same company.

Crash WAS successful in Japan...but that's kinda the problem. Was. N. Sane Trilogy pretty much bombing in Japan may of made Nintendo overlook the character.

N. Sane Trilogy didn’t Bomb over there though. The only game that so far hasn’t done to great over there is Crash 4 but Crash 4 didn’t even pull as much as predicted in the west. I’m pretty sure even Crash Team Racing did just fine. So sales aren’t likely going to be why Crash would be overlooked.

 

[RGFS]

The more I think about it, the more damning it really is that it took for Minecraft to become the best selling game of all time for Nintendo to finally be interested in including a character from a western IP in Smash Bros., which in turn opened the door for Banjo's inclusion because they were owned by the same company.

Crash WAS successful in Japan...but that's kinda the problem. Was. N. Sane Trilogy pretty much bombing in Japan may of made Nintendo overlook the character.

Back in 2015, when Nintendo first entertained Minecraft, it was doing great but it wasn't the best selling game of all time back then. It sold around 70 million at the time and was essentially number 3. At least according to this Forbes article.

If Smash Bros didn't include characters who made an impact at one point but don't matter as much now, probably more than half the roster would be gone.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I think the main takeaway from today's discussions here:

Smashboards users would be highly susceptible to cold reading phychics scams.

Geno fans should've been campaigning for him to show up in Spin-offs like Mario Sports, Party, or Kart first.

The difference there is...those game's don't have 3rd party reps(other than that one Hoops games), Smash does.

Expecting Nintendo to get SE involved in a game they have nothing to do with is a lot bigger ask than asking them to expand their support of a game they're already supporting.

 

[Louie G.]

It's an interesting way to look at it, but there's too much assuming and pattern dissecting in that thought process. That's the kind of thing Nintendo destroys with every other reveal. Nintendo is a huge company and in talks with plenty and plenty of companies all of the time. If Nintendo wants a character from anywhere, they'll get em unless the rights holder doesn't want to be in Smash. I guess one example for this pass is that they had to go to Mojang for Steve, it wasn't just Microsoft that time. They had to jump through a hoop and did it. This is like arguing they wouldn't add Microsoft into Smash since the first two characters were from Sega/Atlus and Square Enix or that after Banjo we wouldn't see a new company. It doesn't really carry real weight. It's too much of a fruitless assumption.

It's an assumption, but all speculation is at the end of the day. If we wanna play this guessing game that is Smash speculation we gotta look toward something to inform our perspectives a bit. For now this is just where I believe we're headed, and I think the idea of DLC being frontloaded to account for the biggest characters just makes sense from a business perspective in general, not simply because it happened last time.

I think Crash is still possible and I think that we could see another pretty big character show up at E3. Personally I believe this may be something less groundbreaking than Steve / Sephiroth but still in the realm of something that could get a wide western audience excited - like a Sonic character or Dark Souls.

These were characters discussed in speculation but I never truly felt they mustered to Crash level. I was not surprised to see them get swatted away. By the time more concrete evidence against them came in, they already had real things going against them. Ryu Hayabusa is still possible for getting in though but I'd never bet on it.

I appreciate your writeups about all the other stuff, but I still don't like the assertion that Hayabusa or Monster Hunter were only propped up by leaks and, in MH's case I hear it often, recency bias - personally I was taking them into consideration for different reasons, and largely before that became the norm. By that same logic you could suggest Crash didn't really take off until that same Direct where N Sane Trilogy was revealed for Switch alongside Smash Ultimate. I just believe it's a close minded and dismissive way to look at these characters.

Hayabusa seemed to have a lot more directly going for him than Crash. While Crash had the legacy and he had new games, Hayabusa had his own legacy and the Sigma collection on top of Koei Tecmo's direct involvement in several Nintendo properties... quite a bit more of a connection than Activision and Nintendo have currently, where the absence of original KT content in Smash at large was (and honestly still is) quite a bit more jarring.

I accept that Hayabusa probably isn't making it at this point, but I still defend that Hayabusa had very little concrete going against him. At least less so than Crash, who out of the gate is owned by a western company that is notoriously expensive to work with... vs a smaller Japanese company who Nintendo has been in bed with for the last three years. I definitely believe he was at or outright surpassed "Crash level" of making sense. Not as popular, but he was by and large a very sensible prediction nonetheless.

 

[RGFS]

I think the main takeaway from today's discussions here:

Smashboards users would be highly susceptible to cold reading phychics scams.

The difference there is...those game's don't have 3rd party reps(other than that one Hoops games), Smash does.

Expecting Nintendo to get SE involved in a game they have nothing to do with is a lot bigger ask than asking them to expand their support of a game they're already supporting.

He's owned by a third party, yet he's still a character from the first-party Mario series. Mario Sports Mix was developed by Square Enix and had characters like Slime and Black Mage. No sign of Geno or Mallow. If they really were trying to bring back Geno, your idea wouldn't stop the fans. They should've been adamant to see him show up anyway in the other Mario games.

Mercedes Benz is certainly not a first-party brand, yet it got into Mario Kart.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

He's owned by a third party, yet he's still a character from the first-party Mario series. Mario Sports Mix was developed by Square Enix and had characters like Slime and Black Mage. No sign of Geno or Mallow. If they really were trying to bring back Geno, your idea wouldn't stop the fans. They should've been adamant to see him show up anyway in the other Mario games.

Mercedes Benz is certainly not a first-party brand, yet it got into Mario Kart.

Are you implying that Mercedes-Benz is the first 3rd party franchise in Mario Kart?

 

[TheCJBrine]

The more I think about it, the more damning it really is that it took for Minecraft to become the best selling game of all time for Nintendo to finally be interested in including a character from a western IP in Smash Bros., which in turn opened the door for Banjo-Kazooie's inclusion because they were popular on the ballot and happened to be owned by the same company.

Crash WAS successful in Japan...but that's kinda the problem. Was. N. Sane Trilogy pretty much bombing in Japan may of made Nintendo overlook the character.

To be fair they were apparently already interested in including Western IP representation as evidenced by the spirits etc., just they didn’t include a fighter yet.

 

[SKX31]

Are you implying that Mercedes-Benz is the first 3rd party franchise in Mario Kart?

************ about to stun y'all with Bell for missing him.

 

[Idon]

He's owned by a third party, yet he's still a character from the first-party Mario series. Mario Sports Mix was developed by Square Enix and had characters like Slime and Black Mage. No sign of Geno or Mallow. If they really were trying to bring back Geno, your idea wouldn't stop the fans. They should've been adamant to see him show up anyway in the other Mario games.

Mercedes Benz is certainly not a first-party brand, yet it got into Mario Kart.

What Square Enix want in the game and what the SMRPG fans want in games are different things. I wouldn't condemn fans for "not trying hard enough" to ask for Geno in other material when they clearly weren't listening to them to begin with when it comes to crossover material.

 

[Louie G.]

I’ve always taken a bit of an issue with the whole “Geno fans should push to see him in other stuff first” approach. I understand the sentiment behind it, but it’s clear that this movement for Smash is because of the opportunities that Smash specifically have granted. It certainly helped that Sakurai seemed favorable toward the idea.

Besides, I don’t think there’s going to be quite as much excitement around seeing Geno balling, or driving a Kart for that matter, than seeing him receive a faithful moveset and fight against video game icons. A game where third party crossovers are more standardized as well - granted it does baffle me that they never thought to use Mario RPG characters in Mario Hoops / Sports Mix or Fortune Street. Just that the audience for those games is much less... passionate than Smash, and it’s really easy to understand why.

I get why people don’t care for Geno but this always came off as a particularly lame way to deflect. It’s not insincere for them to focus on Smash when it’s objectively the best chance he had and the only place he had been acknowledged at all for two decades.

 

[RGFS]

It's an assumption, but all speculation is at the end of the day. If we wanna play this guessing game that is Smash speculation we gotta look toward something to inform our perspectives a bit. For now this is just where I believe we're headed, and I think the idea of DLC being frontloaded to account for the biggest characters just makes sense from a business perspective in general, not simply because it happened last time.

I think Crash is still possible and I think that we could see another pretty big character show up at E3. Personally I believe this may be something less groundbreaking than Steve / Sephiroth but still in the realm of something that could get a wide western audience excited - like a Sonic character or Dark Souls.

The way I see it, almost completely baseless assumptions that throw away potential characters are bad and boring, while completely baseless assumptions that bring in the possibility of potential characters are good and fun. The former way of doing it is a big part of why speculation has utterly failed to guess any character on their own except for Banjo-Kazooie and arguably Steve. Even then, the former way of thinking led to many people being shocked that we saw Minecraft in Smash. The ladder way of thinking would've totally gotten us closer to guessing the characters correctly, it opens the room to discuss things that don't get shot down, and it also lets us keep things in the back of our minds when discussing even if we don't see it as likely as something else.

You can't beat Steve objectively speaking. He wins. Final Fantasy 7 sold way more than Crash Bandicoot did and Sephiroth is one of the most iconic villains of all time. Even if we get Crash and something dumb like a Rockstar Games rep, your assumption would still likely ring true. You can't beat a character everyone knows and a character most die-hard classic gaming fans know. E3 would've been Min Min and Steve which is arguably more hype than Hero and Banjo to many. So I could see this E3 time going either way.

I appreciate your writeups about all the other stuff, but I still don't like the assertion that Hayabusa or Monster Hunter were only propped up by leaks and, in MH's case I hear it often, recency bias - personally I was taking them into consideration for different reasons, and largely before that became the norm. By that same logic you could suggest Crash didn't really take off until that same Direct where N Sane Trilogy was revealed for Switch alongside Smash Ultimate. I just believe it's a close minded and dismissive way to look at these characters.

Hayabusa seemed to have a lot more directly going for him than Crash. While Crash had the legacy and he had new games, Hayabusa had his own legacy and the Sigma collection on top of Koei Tecmo's direct involvement in several Nintendo properties... quite a bit more of a connection than Activision and Nintendo have currently, where the absence of original KT content in Smash at large was (and honestly still is) quite a bit more jarring.

I accept that Hayabusa probably isn't making it at this point, but I still defend that Hayabusa had very little concrete going against him. At least less so than Crash, who out of the gate is owned by a western company that is notoriously expensive to work with... vs a smaller Japanese company who Nintendo has been in bed with for the last three years. I definitely believe he was at or outright surpassed "Crash level" of making sense. Not as popular, but he was by and large a very sensible prediction nonetheless.

They weren't only propped up by fake leaks, but their likelihood to many and their talks in speculation endured because they kept getting placed on fake leaks as well as what they did have going for them. Crash had a similar thing going. But unlike them, their likelihood and points for him were always higher than those two in general and never had any of the drawbacks of real competition for what he brings to the 2nd Fighter Pass. Not trying to mess with Ninja Gaiden or Monster Hunter, this is just the way I saw it after thinking it all over in my head.

Ryu Hayabusa is still plausible if you ask me still right now. But if you told me to look at it objectively, Hayabusa just he never reached the same level of things going for him, overall notoriety, lack of competition, and no evidence going against him that Crash has. Hayabusa only had a little going for him and only a little going against him when looking at the big picture. That's why I always see him at 50/50. These new interviews just made it 55/45. The Monster Hunter Rise situation had enough going for it that I thought it was more plausible but I would've never told you they were as likely as Crash given all the info we have.

Money isn't an issue for Nintendo if they want something really bad, they'll do it. I doubt Activition would be dumb enough to be stingy about free advertising with little to no work. Being a western company can't truly be a big detriment anymore at all either after how many western properties are in Smash without even counting the fighters. Nintendo and Sakurai with DLC have been going with what makes the most objective sense so far, they're not going for whatever easy pick they feel makes the most sense, if not they would've only made the DLC Nintendo reps and echo fighters.

Hope no one takes what I say personally or the wrong way about anything. We'll see how it goes. It's just fun to speculate and analyze. It'll be extremely funny to me if Crash doesn't even get a mention and we get some random KT character that isn't Ryu somehow.

Are you implying that Mercedes-Benz is the first 3rd party franchise in Mario Kart?

I guess it's 4th party? 5th party?

 

[chocolatejr9]

************ about to stun y'all with Bell for missing him.

When Nintendo cares more for Pac-Man than Bandai Namco...

 

[JOJONumber691]

I don't know about all that, since I heard a couple of people state that Sakurai can't add Coco as a Crash echo because they have different proportions, and changing those could easily mess with their skeletons and animations. And this is coming from someone who would love to have both Crash and Coco as his echo.

Then again, Crash and Coco both would likely have new Smash Designs due to how inconsistent they are sooooooooo..........................

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

This is something I posted about a month before the recent deconfirmation talk:

It will be telling to see if Crash, Hayabusa, or both will the heavily speculated fighters simply didn't get in even after so many predictions for them. I think every Smash hype cycle always has that set of characters that almost feel inevitable and yet when its over, they simply never show up. And given that so many other heavy hitters have gradually gone by the wayside for most in speculation for one reason or another they and a few assorted figures feel like they're the last prominent dominos left to fall this year.

Since that, as Hayabusa has likely be deconfirmed and Crash is essentially one spirt event or interview away from being the same, I will say that two striking lessons have definitely taken hold with me; no one is inevitable and the gap between fans and Nintendo's interest can very often in fact be a gulf.

With the former I've essentially settled into a hope that the fighter will play well because my own expectations and beliefs about the Smash characters that (to laughingly describe it) "make sense" to me have rarely come true in the DLC. That's not to say its been bad, just that Ultimate has been an effective lesson about not holding onto notions like "of course so and so had to get in" because reality has clearly proven that they don't.

The contrast aspect is a reinforcement of that point as well as Nintendo's decisions often do have a logic to them that becomes obvious in hindsight, yet often very much don't. The disconnect between fandom and the company is arguably far more prevalent in the pitiful online infrastructure of Smash than characters to the point where its hard to belief a roster this remarkable is attached to an internet based system that underperforms in a vacuum and compared to other titles. I don't say this to bash on Nintendo necessarily, merely to remind that that if such a clear contrast can exist in an question as critical like "how good should online play should be", then a different emphasis on DLC characters is not only not surprising but to be expected.

Essentially I've realized my expectations have been narrow and/or reinforced by own tastes a great deal, and that as much as the base game was very much built to please hardcore fans, a great deal of Smash content is on Nintendo's own wavelength, for all the good or ill that entails.

 

[warubyun]

Why, of course... it's obvious! As a result of Nintendo's already existing collaboration with Mercedes-Benz, the next fighter will be a W177 Mercedes-Benz A-Class hatchback and/or sedan. The Final Smash is carbon monoxide poisoning.

 

[Firox]

I’ve always taken a bit of an issue with the whole “Geno fans should push to see him in other stuff first” approach. I understand the sentiment behind it, but it’s clear that this movement for Smash is because of the opportunities that Smash specifically have granted. It certainly helped that Sakurai seemed favorable toward the idea.

Besides, I don’t think there’s going to be quite as much excitement around seeing Geno balling, or driving a Kart for that matter, than seeing him receive a faithful moveset and fight against video game icons. A game where third party crossovers are more standardized as well - granted it does baffle me that they never thought to use Mario RPG characters in Mario Hoops / Sports Mix or Fortune Street. Just that the audience for those games is much less... passionate than Smash, and it’s really easy to understand why.

I get why people don’t care for Geno but this always came off as a particularly lame way to deflect. It’s not insincere for them to focus on Smash when it’s objectively the best chance he had and the only place he had been acknowledged at all for two decades.

Absolutely nailed it. Bottomline, Smash was our best chance to mainstream Geno and it just didn't pan out. To be honest, Sakurai's bias would have been our only real chance since Nintendo and SE apparently don't give a **** either way, but again, it just wasn't meant to be. The fact that there are still people pushing for Geno in Smash despite it all really shows how tenacious Geno's fans are, not the opposite.

 

[RGFS]

To be fair they were apparently already interested in including Western IP representation as evidenced by the spirits etc., just they didn’t include a fighter yet.

Let's not forget they've considered adding Banjo and even James Bond since Melee as fighters. The motion censor bomb was from Perfect Dark right? Sakurai probably wouldn't have done James Bond in the long run anyway but the Banjo stuff only fell apart because that was around the time when Microsoft swooped Rare away.

I bet Sakurai at one point was still uneasy about working with a language barrier or with such a faraway team but by this point, he's clearly been okay with it multiple times. Nintendo is a multinational company that can get access to the biggest and smallest teams out there. They've been in contact with Yatch Club Games for an Assist Trophy and they've been in contact for a while with Ubisoft for some spirits and more recently a Mii Costume. There's a ton more examples but more recently, they got in contact with Bethesda, a whole new company to add their biggest series as a simple 75 cents Mii Costume.

I’ve always taken a bit of an issue with the whole “Geno fans should push to see him in other stuff first” approach. I understand the sentiment behind it, but it’s clear that this movement for Smash is because of the opportunities that Smash specifically have granted. It certainly helped that Sakurai seemed favorable toward the idea.

Besides, I don’t think there’s going to be quite as much excitement around seeing Geno balling, or driving a Kart for that matter, than seeing him receive a faithful moveset and fight against video game icons. A game where third party crossovers are more standardized as well - granted it does baffle me that they never thought to use Mario RPG characters in Mario Hoops / Sports Mix or Fortune Street. Just that the audience for those games is much less... passionate than Smash, and it’s really easy to understand why.

I get why people don’t care for Geno but this always came off as a particularly lame way to deflect. It’s not insincere for them to focus on Smash when it’s objectively the best chance he had and the only place he had been acknowledged at all for two decades.

Don't take anything I say here about Geno as malice. We're just trying to analyze the situation on Geno. Sakurai wanted a gun arm character for a long time. Keyword here is wanted. It's in the past tense since at this point they already had Mii Gunner in the game. This is always how I see the quote and back then still deeply hoped he would at least get a Deluxe Mii Costume when the time came... but he didn't. Still bothered about that tbh but it says so much.

Geno needs to earn Smash Bros, he can't just get chucked in. Noone in charge at Nintendo or Square Enix sees him as notable or likely enough for a Mario Series Smash fighter spot for now. Tough ****, so are many other big important Mario characters that represent his series better and also have this issue. So many other characters I love from other non-Mario series befall the same fate and that's fine. Smash isn't about me or a specific group, it's about everyone and as many people who are interested in Nintendo and/or gaming.

If you get him in those spin-offs, it could one day upgrade him to Smash. You can't just go from just applying for a learner's permit to racing in F1 the next day! (Though I guess Geno in Mario Kart would be kinda doing that?)

I've seen Geno fans say they wanted the character to be revived, going to Smash doesn't immediately do that or stop you from staying dead. Look at F-Zero, Mother, Castlevania, Metal Gear, or even Banjo-Kazooie. Nothing on the horizon. They want to see Geno back and being relevant? Putting him in Mario Spinoffs is the true way to gauge interest, get players to like him, and introduce him into the main games and RPGs once more. I'd love for him to be a truly iconic, mainstay Mario character that truly represents the series. The thing is, why would he be a Smash character first before being a true Mario mainstay??? Mario Kart is a bigger more important series to Nintendo anyway. Put him into Mario Kart Tour and his chances skyrocket. Beggars can't be choosers.

I really don't hate Geno or his fans believe it or not. My dream is for him to be relevant enough one day for some sort of super-secret character you can encounter and team up with in a future Mario game. You'd have to do a bunch of arbitrary "L is real" type things to find him. A small spark needs to happen to light the flame of Geno actually mattering. Rockstar Games actually does "L is real" type playground rumors for things in GTAV when it comes to easter eggs like Bigfoot, aliens, etc. and it would be super cool for Nintendo to do something similar for Geno.

Here's one of them in case anyone's curious about what I'm talking about.

 

[Gnateb]

Whoever just said a Sonic character and a Dark Souls character could be in FP2, I just wanted to let you know that those are my predictions too lol

 

[Mushroomguy12]

When Nintendo cares more for Pac-Man than Bandai Namco...

When an arcade spinoff of Mario Kart gets to have Ms. Pac-Man, but Smash Bros can't even so much as include her as a spirit.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

As a fan of Geno, Smash being his best chance does make sense to me. Nintendo can't be bothered to include RPG characters they themselves own in spin-offs, let alone ones owned by other companies. Square's support of the Switch has been hit and miss in general (I mean they did look at the Nintendo version of Balan Wonderworld & conclude it was okay putting out). Neither of the most critical parties for making the character in any way relevant don't seem to have a vested interest in doing so given their current direction, and Mario RPG elements never being revisited again feels like such a given that even when I thought Geno might have had a chance for Ultimate, I had no expectations about a SMRPG sequel/remake/non-Smash cameo.

I'd love to be wrong, but my own thinking does lean towards that nothing else can or will come from it outside fan game circles.

 

[chocolatejr9]

When an arcade spinoff of Mario Kart gets to have Ms. Pac-Man, but Smash Bros can't even so much as include her as a spirit.

To be fair, I think that was before Ms. Pac-Man's legal situation went out of control.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

To be fair, I think that was before Ms. Pac-Man's legal situation went out of control.

Yeah, I know she was removed from the most recent incarnation of Mario Kart Arcade GP, even though she was playable in the first two iterations.

Of course, that doesn't explain this.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Are you implying that Mercedes-Benz is the first 3rd party franchise in Mario Kart?

First 4th party!

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Mercedes Benz is certainly not a first-party brand, yet it got into Mario Kart.

Flashbacks

I'm-a going to tell my kids this was the Mario movie.

 

[ahemtoday]

I really wonder what they'd do with Ori aesthetically in Super Smash Bros. You know how the Z-Saber is canonically blue (it will be blue in most, if not all of his artwork), but is green in gameplay (with Super Smash Bros. being a notable exception)? It's so that the sky blue color doesn't get lost against the sky backdrops.

Ori has this problem with their entire body, and unlike Rivals of Aether, Super Smash Bros. does not outline its characters, so I'm not sure that's what they'd go with. Or...huh. Do you think they'd just give Ori an outline, or do you think they'd do something else?

I mean, I have to wonder if this would be that much of an issue.

First of all, like the only thing I know about Ori is that they're white. There aren't a whole lot of backdrops light enough for that to blend in. Compare that to Mega Man games, where sky blues are dominant in basically every outside stage.

Second, Smash uses 3D models. This Z-Sabre tradition would have started back in the X games, when they were still using sprites. When the sabre's a flat color with maybe one or two shades, on hardware with a limited number of possible blues, it's easy for a sabre to disappear. However, that becomes less true when you jump to 32-bit sprites, and even less so once you go full 3D. If it didn't start back then, I wonder if it'd even happen today.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

So I made a new SMAAASH!! Puppy sprite with (a little) more detail but...I'm not sure it's an improvement.

First of all, like the only thing I know about Ori is that they're white.

Ah. The background colors seem to bleed onto Ori in certain circumstances since he looks sky blue in certain pictures and is unquestionably white in others. He might still get lost on PictoChat 2, and in certain areas of Temple and Cloud Sea of Alrest, but that's not nearly as prevalent an issue.

Second, Smash uses 3D models. This Z-Sabre tradition would have started back in the X games, when they were still using sprites. When the sabre's a flat color with maybe one or two shades, on hardware with a limited number of possible blues, it's easy for a sabre to disappear. However, that becomes less true when you jump to 32-bit sprites, and even less so once you go full 3D. If it didn't start back then, I wonder if it'd even happen today.

I'm not sure being 3D matters too much. Perhaps it's a quirk of energy blades specifically, but there are instances of them being changed from blue to green in 3D as well; One being the Z-Saber (they don't use the canon color in X7 or X8 despite going 3D nor do they do it in Marvel Vs. Capcom) and another being Luke Skywalker's Lightsaber from one of the movies.

There's also just that anything with fairly subtle or no shading can get lost in a background of the same color, which is why Mr. Game & Watch has an outline, and even he can be a bit hard to follow for some people if his color matches the background.

 

[Froggy]

This is something I posted about a month before the recent deconfirmation talk:

Since that, as Hayabusa has likely be deconfirmed and Crash is essentially one spirt event or interview away from being the same, I will say that two striking lessons have definitely taken hold with me; no one is inevitable and the gap between fans and Nintendo's interest can very often in fact be a gulf.

I disagree with this almost completely. Remember that Ridley, King K rule, Banjo and to a lesser extent Simon all got in because of fan interest. I think the entire reason they're was so much hype around Geno is that Nintendo was finally adding characters based on fan-demand. I do think popular characters have a much better shot at getting selected. The majority of the non-first partly DLC prove this.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I disagree with this almost completely. Remember that Ridley, King K rule, Banjo and to a lesser extent Simon all got in because of fan interest. I think the entire reason they're was so much hype around Geno is that Nintendo was finally adding characters based on fan-demand. I do think popular characters have a much better shot at getting selected. The majority of the non-first partly DLC prove this.

Why did it say I was quoted for this post...?

 

[cothero]

I was looking the new Knuckles's gameplay video from Project+ and couldn't help myself thinking that Sakurai really missed a golden opportunity for such an unique character. He could play even better than Shadow ever could, in my humble opinion.