Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Deleted member]

1. I understand that Vergeben has said it was focused only on CP5, and Also @Nekoo, who knew the source also, said it was for CP5 only

With that being said, The thing to note was that their intention was for CP5 only, but the thing about this theory is it gives out reasons for why Unintentionally, they might have also Spilled the beans on FP2

Another example involves Vergeben as well. Vergeben reported on both Minecraft and Sephiroth back during the base game, and I believe even after Banjo got in, he thought of the Minecraft info as some type of Leakbait, so Intentionally he wasn't thinking that it would take so long for Minecraft content to show up. Unintentionally he seemed to have leaked talks of Minecraft in smash that lasted 5 years, and that's the whole thing about this theory

2. That's one of the main questions I asked myself regarding this theory. The Source obviously did not know that Byleth was CP5. If the Source did, then we wouldn't have had stuff like Capcom having 6 characters deconfirmed but not deconfirmed as a whole company like Bandai Namco was, The idea of "Another Microsoft character" that was on the OG List wouldn't have been taken off the accurate list, and we wouldn't have the KOS-MOS Situation that the source themselves said they were unsure on intially

This, from my Analysis, gives more credence that Info about BOTH FP1 and FP2 mixed together in regards to this list. I don't think he got his info from the developmental side of Smash Ultimate since if he did, he probably would have seen Byleth in a more finished production state, meaning it be easy to decipher that they were CP5. That's why I say they probably got their info from the Legal side of things, or knowing of Negotations, and since FP2 Negotations were going on while FP1 was being developed, it's easy to see how Info about both passes get mixed up

3. In regards to the Accurate version of the list, the fact that it still hasn't been broken does give more credence to this theory. Not only were all 4 of the Current FP2 fighters not on the list, but it was very risky in listing alot of characters that were at the time Frontrunners. The fact that we've slowly been killing off popular characters on this list like Ryu Hayabusa, Doomguy, all of Capcom, etc does give more credence to the idea of this list having a Effect on Pass 2

And the fact that with the OG List, that the things that were on the OG List, but were not on the accurate version of the list, were also things that got content in FP2 in some from is important to note




Verge did not know about the situation regarding Minecraft when he intially reported on it. Same thing with Sephiroth as well, I don't think he knew that Sephiroth would have gotten in later and that it was only between 1 Square character that was getting in

About it limiting topics, yeah that is a shame to be honest, but I don't think that should matter if we are trying to Speculate who's gonna be in the game though. Supporting options in Smash is different from Speculating about who's gonna be in Smash

I actually think this could be compared to the Tales of Chun leak. That post mentioned Sephiroth being in consideration, along with talking about how Minecraft Steve was there. The thing is that the leak Never said Sephiroth was gonna be in, as by the wording, he's saying that Dragon Quest got the SE Spot, as in the only one

View attachment 310065

This only got traction after Sephiroth got in years later and people Inferred that he might have heard Talks about Sephiroth back then too

It's a very Similar situation with this Vergeben Deconfirm list, only It's more Credible because it's gotten much more things right. I understand that the Vergeben Deconfirm theory deconfirms a Major amount of characters, compared to the Tales of Chun Leak that did the opposite, but I don't think the theory should be dismissed so easily

Wow, so from what I take from that quote is that Geno fans actually shot themselves in the foot with all the demand for Geno in Smash but never backing it up with equal demand for another game.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Apparently Cloud barely made it in base game.

that statement could have also alluded to Konami and bringing Snake back/adding Simon and Richter, cause 2015-2016 were the time of... very questionable business decisions, plus Snake didn't return for 4. the way it was phrased could hint at either possibility

 

[Eldrake]

The speculation thread talking about a completely inane theory that makes no sense?
I'd rather watch grass grow.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Wow, so from what I take from that quote is that Geno fans actually shot themselves in the foot with all the demand for Geno in Smash but never backing it up with equal demand for another game.

Ouch. Can't catch a break, can they?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

The speculation thread talking about a completely inane theory that makes no sense?
I'd rather watch grass grow.

You know what else grows? Ultraman, that's right kiddos, the final character in practically confirmed as Platinum's Project GG protagonist!

 

[TheCJBrine]

1. I understand that Vergeben has said it was focused only on CP5, and Also @Nekoo, who knew the source also, said it was for CP5 only

With that being said, The thing to note was that their intention was for CP5 only, but the thing about this theory is it gives out reasons for why Unintentionally, they might have also Spilled the beans on FP2

Another example involves Vergeben as well. Vergeben reported on both Minecraft and Sephiroth back during the base game, and I believe even after Banjo got in, he thought of the Minecraft info as some type of Leakbait, so Intentionally he wasn't thinking that it would take so long for Minecraft content to show up. Unintentionally he seemed to have leaked talks of Minecraft in smash that lasted 5 years, and that's the whole thing about this theory

2. That's one of the main questions I asked myself regarding this theory. The Source obviously did not know that Byleth was CP5. If the Source did, then we wouldn't have had stuff like Capcom having 6 characters deconfirmed but not deconfirmed as a whole company like Bandai Namco was, The idea of "Another Microsoft character" that was on the OG List wouldn't have been taken off the accurate list, and we wouldn't have the KOS-MOS Situation that the source themselves said they were unsure on intially

This, from my Analysis, gives more credence that Info about BOTH FP1 and FP2 mixed together in regards to this list. I don't think he got his info from the developmental side of Smash Ultimate since if he did, he probably would have seen Byleth in a more finished production state, meaning it be easy to decipher that they were CP5. That's why I say they probably got their info from the Legal side of things, or knowing of Negotations, and since FP2 Negotations were going on while FP1 was being developed, it's easy to see how Info about both passes get mixed up

3. In regards to the Accurate version of the list, the fact that it still hasn't been broken does give more credence to this theory. Not only were all 4 of the Current FP2 fighters not on the list, but it was very risky in listing alot of characters that were at the time Frontrunners. The fact that we've slowly been killing off popular characters on this list like Ryu Hayabusa, Doomguy, all of Capcom, etc does give more credence to the idea of this list having a Effect on Pass 2

And the fact that with the OG List, that the things that were on the OG List, but were not on the accurate version of the list, were also things that got content in FP2 in some from is important to note




Verge did not know about the situation regarding Minecraft when he intially reported on it. Same thing with Sephiroth as well, I don't think he knew that Sephiroth would have gotten in later and that it was only between 1 Square character that was getting in

About it limiting topics, yeah that is a shame to be honest, but I don't think that should matter if we are trying to Speculate who's gonna be in the game though. Supporting options in Smash is different from Speculating about who's gonna be in Smash

I actually think this could be compared to the Tales of Chun leak. That post mentioned Sephiroth being in consideration, along with talking about how Minecraft Steve was there. The thing is that the leak Never said Sephiroth was gonna be in, as by the wording, he's saying that Dragon Quest got the SE Spot, as in the only one

View attachment 310065

This only got traction after Sephiroth got in years later and people Inferred that he might have heard Talks about Sephiroth back then too

It's a very Similar situation with this Vergeben Deconfirm list, only It's more Credible because it's gotten much more things right. I understand that the Vergeben Deconfirm theory deconfirms a Major amount of characters, compared to the Tales of Chun Leak that did the opposite, but I don't think the theory should be dismissed so easily

I suppose it could be a weird mix of legal info, but iirc Vergeben’s Minecraft stuff was a bad source according to some people. Minecraft being in talks for 5 years doesn’t mean it was always planned, FP2 certainly wasn’t planned for that long if it was only greenlit around E3 2019 (according to Imran Khan at 17:02 in this video: https://youtu.be/58WAbKCJ06A).

Tbh all this just makes the source look like a bad source if they really even knew anything. If they looked at legal stuff, they still could’ve given the negotiation info instead of saying who they didn’t negotiate with; have we not gotten at least one thing from a “disconfirmed” company? And why would they need to change stuff to be more accurate afterwards? Wasn’t even Nintendo on the first list? For all we know, this guy’s checking of legal stuff still only applied to CP5.

I don’t remember Vergeben specifically saying Sephiroth? Iirc he was just in the Seven Squares list which also had DQ, Chrono, Geno, and Sora. Maybe I missed something, though.

The Chun-Li leak just seems fake, now, the stuff about Geno just seems kinda dumb and we have to get both Chun-Li and Tales of for it to be real. Steve already having a working model for Smash sounds kinda dumb, too, since it seems like Banjo & Kazooie were chosen first although I guess Steve could’ve been pushed ‘til later as a bonus until becoming part of a full pass. It really only got Erdrick right since it implied Sephiroth etc. weren’t coming, and the dude wasn’t completely sure on Erdrick coming either since he didn’t know if DLC is happening; and as we know, he wasn’t the only one to say Sephiroth.

Vergeben’s list really has nothing going for it aside from stuff not happening yet. I guess I wouldn’t mind if it stayed unbroken personally, though, as that gives Nintendo characters higher chances, but I don’t know about it.

Wow, so from what I take from that quote is that Geno fans actually shot themselves in the foot with all the demand for Geno in Smash but never backing it up with equal demand for another game.

Assuming the Chun-Li leak is even real. People wanted to see Geno in another game too, a lot just focused on Smash because they didn’t think they’d make another game (though personally I do wish more people would ask for him, Mallow, etc. in Mario spinoffs at least, and admittedly the Smash focus is rather , since Sakurai’s likes/wants and the fan demand for an old Mario character aren’t enough for him to get into Smash beyond a mii costume as I guess I should’ve known but I guess I thought the fan demand could pull through, idk...although, a Mii Costume is still more than some other characters, and the reason given in the leak still sounds kinda dumb given he got the mii costume tbh).

 

[RGFS]

Well, there was the fact that the updated list does not directly deconfirm any of the FP2 characters that have been confirmed so far, and FP2 negotiation happened concurrently with Byleth's development period.

Does that really mean anything? Steve wasn't added to the list as he was already seemingly deconfirmed by Banjo so nobody asked about him. I bet if he was asked about enough at the time, he'd be part of that list and this theory would essentially fall apart.

-As noted in one of my posts, One of the questions I had was that how was the Source able to Deconfirm characters, if he didn't know who exactly CP5 was

The Part 3 of my theory gives a what I think is a Logical conclusion, in that he was privy to what negotiations were either being finalized or going on at the time, and since FP2 Negotiations were going at the same time of fP1 Development, than yes that Logically opens the door for this list to have an impact on FP2

-The leak did hear about the Sephiroth deals, but he just Assumed that was the end of it. even from people that have Inside info, they don't know Exactly how that info would surface. While he intentionally might have just brushed off Sephiroth because he heard more for Dragon Quest, Unintentionally he also heard the potential dealings of Sephiroth in FP2, and that's what people just rolled with when Sephiroth got confirmed, with their speculation that this info was going towards that

Vergeben Might have intentionally only meant for this list to be for CP5 only, but unintentionally might have spread info that applies to FP2

Keep in mind that Vergeben also said that Steve was Leakbait back then, so it's not like What Vergeben hears all the time is the actual result

Soooo what about the Minecraft content ? - Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (gamespot.com)

I like me some crackpot theories from time to time, there's clearly some sort of thought put into this. Though, I can't really trust this until something more concrete throws Crash Bandicoot out of the running. I find it really weird that Crash won't get a whole fighter slot, his association with Mario has to bump him forward enough. I really doubt FIghter Pass 2 won't give us a platformer character and Crash is probably the best choice.

Wow, so from what I take from that quote is that Geno fans actually shot themselves in the foot with all the demand for Geno in Smash but never backing it up with equal demand for another game.

Geno fans should've been campaigning for him to show up in Spin-offs like Mario Sports, Party, or Kart first. It was always such a stupid idea to push for Geno to go represent the Mario series in Smash when characters like Waluigi and Toad didn't even get fighters. Smash is the highest level. I'm not surprised if this is true.

 

[7NATOR]

oh also that reminds me - did he ever look into the League of Legends rumor as promised?

He never followed up on it Unfortunately

I have a hard time believing that since Sephiroth only made the cut in the second round of DLC.

If you want to take that quote from Sakurai about "1-2 Extra Fighters" before he revealed FP2, perhaps when DLC was decided on sometime after January of 2018, Sephiroth was decided to always be DLC

Though that also doesn't take into account that they decided the Base roster in 2015, with Development starting in 2016, so yeah I don't think it was a stiupulating to bring back Cloud.

Wow, so from what I take from that quote is that Geno fans actually shot themselves in the foot with all the demand for Geno in Smash but never backing it up with equal demand for another game.

I have seen them want a Return to SMRPG in some fashion, but I agree that they were too focused on Smash if this is true

contrast this with Isaac fans, who also demand for a Return to the franchise in General

 

[RGFS]

I suppose it could be a weird mix of legal info, but iirc Vergeben’s Minecraft stuff a bad source according to some people. Minecraft being in talks for 5 years doesn’t mean it was always planned, FP2 certainly wasn’t planned for that long if it was only greenlit around E3 2019 (according to Imran Khan at 17:02 in this video: https://youtu.be/58WAbKCJ06A).

That would make all the sense in the world actually. This is likely the reason Hero didn't come with the Geno or Chocobo Mii and why Banjo didn't bring any Minecraft content. While all the Pass characters were still probably being decided at the time, those two were likely high priority choices by then.

Y'know, with that in mind, maybe Byleth wasn't actually gonna be the end of DLC, and whoever it was already got in or was pushed back. Not sure, that's my tinfoil theory for today.

 

[SharkLord]

we have to get both Chun-Li and Tales of for it to be real.

The rumor was that they were planned for the base game. There was nothing saying they would come back; That was just a conclusion we drew from the patterns at the time. Heck, we could get no content from either of them and it still would be deconfirmed, because it didn't saying anything would come of it later.

 

[TheCJBrine]

The rumor was that they were planned for the base game. There was nothing saying they would come back; That was just a conclusion we drew from the patterns at the time. Heck, we could get no content from either of them and it still would be deconfirmed, because it didn't saying anything would come of it later.

Oh, okay, although the leak still seems it could be fake and rather useless if real in that case so I suppose it doesn’t matter, the Geno thing still sounds kinda dumb given the mii costume though.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Wow, so from what I take from that quote is that Geno fans actually shot themselves in the foot with all the demand for Geno in Smash but never backing it up with equal demand for another game.

Well, considering the current state of Mario RPGs in general (with how loud Paper Mario fans have screamed at Nintendo and gotten scraps back, as well as Alphadream's bankruptcy), I wouldn't really think that it would have lead anywhere.

(I know Origami King's not Sticker Star 3, the meme was made before the first trailer released, the joke and reason I posted it is more on it not being a traditional RPG).

 

[SharkLord]

Oh, okay, although the leak still seems it could be fake and rather useless if real in that case so I suppose it doesn’t matter, the Geno thing still sounds kinda dumb given the mii costume though.

Yeah, I'm beginning to doubt it too. Not very big on these 4chan/5chan leaks in general.

Honestly, I'm beginning to resent all these rumors and supposed insider stuff. It's just tiring to deal with, and there's always people insisting "But wait! It could be true!" until we finally get something that breaks it once and for all, even if the rumor itself is highly doubtful and has been sitting around for over a year. I'm reaching the point where I want all the rumors and junk to just disappear so we don't have to put up with them anymore, but we all know people are going to keep going back and dredging them up and we're back in the cycle again, so that's not gonna happen.

 

[Louie G.]

My perspective on Steve is that there's no way he wasn't always going to make it in some capacity. Chances are the initial plan beyond FP1 was just for standalone DLC packs more akin to Smash 4's DLC model, with a few characters on standby set to release that way (IMO Steve and Sephiroth, easily - they seem more intensive from a development and negotiation standpoint respectively) but the success of Joker's release and general excitement around Smash being the deciding factor in moving forward with a full second pass.

The characters decided later were, in my opinion, probably easier characters to grab like Min Min and Pyra / Mythra. Hence the pretty clear disparity between these massive characters like Steve and Sephiroth with more lowkey Nintendo picks (not saying that's a bad thing, btw).

 

[JOJONumber691]

Plenty fitting. Things those two have in common include:

Western-favorites
Cartoony and comedic
Representative of Nintendo's competition (especially former)



Well to be fair, TV Tropes did list a bit of Fridge Brilliance in regards to the R.O.B. series having no home stage at all, stating it could be because R.O.B.'s home, Isle of the Ancients, was permanently destroyed by Subspace bombs, leaving him with no place to call home (and instead having him be fought on the stages of other series).



One of the theories I came up with is that the bonus fighter could be an Echo of CP11.

Honestly, I think if this is an Echo Situation then it’s 100% Crash and Coco, but I don’t see it being an Echo of a DLC Character if this is an Echo.

 

[Froggy]

Vergeben Deconfirm List Theory Part 3 (Perhaps Final Part?) - Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (gamespot.com)

here's the info about it , with links in the topic to the previous parts

Thanks for this. Do you have a link to Vergeben's more accurate list? It wasn't included in that post you listed I don't think.

 

[SKX31]

Geno fans should've been campaigning for him to show up in Spin-offs like Mario Sports, Party, or Kart first. It was always such a stupid idea to push for Geno to go represent the Mario series in Smash when characters like Waluigi and Toad didn't even get fighters. Smash is the highest level. I'm not surprised if this is true.

To be fair, it might be a case where the allure of Smash Bros. - you know, the very game series which Nintendo has advertised as the "Dream Crossover Party Fighter" since 1999 - became so centralizing to those that actively campaigned for the character that it became effectively its own centre of gravity. And characters getting into Smash has most often been seen as a binary "Heaven or Hell" scenario where either the character's in or not / dead in the water. Yes, the binary thinking is incredibly flawed and has lead to a lot of pointless conclusions and arguments. Thing is, it often is the "simplest" and thus easiest to get drawn to initially.

 

[RGFS]

Yeah, I'm beginning to doubt it too. Not very big on these 4chan/5chan leaks in general.

Honestly, I'm beginning to resent all these rumors and supposed insider stuff. It's just tiring to deal with, and there's always people insisting "But wait! It could be true!" until we finally get something that breaks it once and for all, even if the rumor itself is highly doubtful and has been sitting around for over a year. I'm reaching the point where I want all the rumors and junk to just disappear so we don't have to put up with them anymore, but we all know people are going to keep going back and dredging them up and we're back in the cycle again, so that's not gonna happen.

That's definitely true but I don't mind chewing on these ideas with the assumption that it's probably bogus. It's a bit more interesting than either shuffling between 5ish characters or having the occasional character of the week for people to make up weird excuses as to why they can't appear in Smash.

To be fair, it might be a case where the allure of Smash Bros. - you know, the very game series which Nintendo has advertised as the "Dream Crossover Party Fighter" since 1999 - became so centralizing to those that actively campaigned for the character that it became effectively its own centre of gravity. And characters getting into Smash has most often been seen as a binary "Heaven or Hell" scenario where either the character's in or not / dead in the water. Yes, the binary thinking is incredibly flawed and has lead to a lot of pointless conclusions and arguments, thing is, it often is the simplest and thus simplest to get drawn to initially.

Yeah sure, but that still wouldn't point to Geno making any sense in Smash as a fighter at this point in time, he's nowhere near a Ridley, K Rool, or Banjo-Kazooie type character. Sure, before we got Cloud in Smash, Geno being a sort of Square Enix character made a ton of sense, but after that point, Geno was positioned as somehow being a solid Mario rep for Smash despite never appearing in the average spin-off or main game since his first RPG appearance.

The fact that his Mii Costume wasn't deluxe is total BS given the passion his fans do have but it's also quite telling of how Nintendo and SE see the character. "What? Sure here's the costume from before. Why do they ask for this anyway? Is it some meme? Whatever. Here it is."

 

[Rie Sonomura]

That's definitely true but I don't mind chewing on these ideas with the assumption that it's probably bogus. It's a bit more interesting than either shuffling between 5ish characters or having the occasional character of the week for people to make up weird excuses as to why they can't appear in Smash.

*4-ish now, since Hayabusa was shot down by his IP holders it seems

aside from Crash who else is a "safe" pick now?

 

[Guynamednelson]

This is likely the reason Hero didn't come with the Geno or Chocobo Mii

I think the plan with that wave was always to only have it include DQ Mii costumes.

 

[SharkLord]

That's definitely true but I don't mind chewing on these ideas with the assumption that it's probably bogus. It's a bit more interesting than either shuffling between 5ish characters or having the occasional character of the week for people to make up weird excuses as to why they can't appear in Smash.

The problem is that A: All the rumors that gain traction are usually one of those standard 5ish characters anyways, and B: Not everyone goes in expecting bogus. They latch on and refuse to let go, insisting it could be true because of one thing it guessed correctly, even with some of the rumors being around for over a year. Honestly, I think the rumors are just bait for confirmation bias at this point.

 

[cashregister9]

Can anyone give a TL:DR for what the heck this conversation is about?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Can someone give me TL:DR for what the heck this conversation is about?

7Nator created another theory of his. Oh, and Genm Level Billion got confirmed as the next DLC

 

[SharkLord]

Can someone give me TL:DR for what the heck this conversation is about?

There was a theory made about Vergeben's deconfirm list from the pre-CP5 era. The theory is that the source also ended up giving information about FP2, on the basis that they would be basing it off of deals Nintendo was doing (Or the deals that weren't going on). Therefore, it would deconfirm a lot of options for FP2 as well. Due to the nature of coming from an old insider list from about a year ago, it seems to be rather divisive.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Genm Level Billion

Is this a thing or are you just typing random stuff?

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Can anyone give a TL:DR for what the heck this conversation is about?

Which one? Most of the time with this thread there are multiple conversations going on at the same time, or the same conversation splits off into separate conversations, etc. T'is another day in the chaos of Smash speculation.

 

[RGFS]

*4-ish now, since Hayabusa was shot down by his IP holders it seems

aside from Crash who else is a "safe" pick now?

... I don't think anyone except Crash is a safe pick anymore. However, the average speculator will still throw around some characters like Hayabusa, A Tales rep Master Chief, Doom Slayer, Pokemon rep, and a Zelda rep but I wouldn't say they're solid enough given a few different things.

 

[cashregister9]

7Nator created another theory of his. Oh, and Genm Level Billion got confirmed as the next DLC

P E R F E C T

There was a theory made about Vergeben's deconfirm list from the pre-CP5 era. The theory is that the source also ended up giving information about FP2, on the basis that they would be basing it off of deals Nintendo was doing (Or the deals that weren't going on). Therefore, it would deconfirm a lot of options for FP2 as well. Due to the nature of coming from an old insider list from about a year ago, it seems to be rather divisive.

Thanks!

Which one? Most of the time with this thread there are multiple conversations going on at the same time, or the same conversation splits off into separate conversations, etc. T'is another day in the chaos of Smash speculation.

The one Sharklord clarified was the one I was talking about, it seemed more chaotic than usual today and that is why I was curious.

 

[7NATOR]

Thanks for the. Do you a link to Vergeben's more accurate list? It wasn't included in that post you listed I don't think.

Here

Vergeben, did the leaker give anymore last minute info on the next fighter? - Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (gamespot.com)

I suppose it could be a weird mix of legal info, but iirc Vergeben’s Minecraft stuff was a bad source according to some people. Minecraft being in talks for 5 years doesn’t mean it was always planned, FP2 certainly wasn’t planned for that long if it was only greenlit around E3 2019 (according to Imran Khan at 17:02 in this video: https://youtu.be/58WAbKCJ06A).

Tbh all this just makes the source look like a bad source if they really even knew anything. If they looked at legal stuff, they still could’ve given the negotiation info instead of saying who they didn’t negotiate with; have we not gotten at least one thing from a “disconfirmed” company? And why would they need to change stuff to be more accurate afterwards? Wasn’t even Nintendo on the first list? For all we know, this guy’s checking of legal stuff still only applied to CP5.

I don’t remember Vergeben specifically saying Sephiroth? Iirc he was just in the Seven Squares list which also had DQ, Chrono, Geno, and Sora. Maybe I missed something, though.

The Chun-Li leak just seems fake, now, the stuff about Geno just seems kinda dumb and we have to get both Chun-Li and Tales of for it to be real. Steve already having a working model for Smash sounds kinda dumb, too, since it seems like Banjo & Kazooie were chosen first although I guess Steve could’ve been pushed ‘til later as a bonus until becoming part of a full pass. It really only got Erdrick right since it implied Sephiroth etc. weren’t coming, and the dude wasn’t completely sure on Erdrick coming either since he didn’t know if DLC is happening; and as we know, he wasn’t the only one to say Sephiroth.

Vergeben’s list really has nothing going for it aside from stuff not happening yet. I guess I wouldn’t mind if it stayed unbroken personally, though, as that gives Nintendo characters higher chances, but I don’t know about it.

-Regarding the change in lists, that was on the fault of Vergeben, not the source

HUGE UPDATE. PLEASE READ. Very important clarification about deconfirms today! - Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (gamespot.com)

Verge Miscommunicated with his source and it led to the OG List, which needed to be corrected


-The seven squares thing blew up from a Leaked DM from Vergeben

Here it says Sephiroth was one of the more heard names


-The purpose of me bringing up the Tales of Chun-Li Leak was that people paraded it around because it got Sephiroth correct, despite the fact in the actual post, he didn't even suggest Sephiroth was gonna be playable later on, just that he heard he was in contention, but that Dragon Quest got the SE SPOT (as in one Spot)

People had to add their speculation to make it apply to the FP2, when this post did not have the intention of being applied to FP2. It's the same thing with the Vergeben Deconfirm list in that it was intentionally only for CP5, but there's good reason to believe, from my analysis, that it also applies to FP2

 

[chocolatejr9]

*4-ish now, since Hayabusa was shot down by his IP holders it seems

aside from Crash who else is a "safe" pick now?

Safe picks are a myth. Just accept that Fighter 11 won't be a big shot, and you'll be good.

 

[2006ToyotaTacoma]

... I don't think anyone except Crash is a safe pick anymore. However, the average speculator will still throw around some characters like Hayabusa, A Tales rep Master Chief, Doom Slayer, Pokemon rep, and a Zelda rep but I wouldn't say they're solid enough given a few different things.

Hell, I'd say Crash isn't even a safe pick anymore, since we saw how easily the rug can be pulled from under even the safest picks.

No one's safe from a sudden deconfirm at this point.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Is this a thing or are you just typing random stuff?

So, you wish to know about God do you?

He very much exists

 

[Technomage]

Honestly, I think if this is an Echo Situation then it’s 100% Crash and Coco, but I don’t see it being an Echo of a DLC Character if this is an Echo.

I don't know about all that, since I heard a couple of people state that Sakurai can't add Coco as a Crash echo because they have different proportions, and changing those could easily mess with their skeletons and animations. And this is coming from someone who would love to have both Crash and Coco as his echo.

 

[RGFS]

Hell, I'd say Crash isn't even a safe pick anymore, since we saw how easily the rug can be pulled from under even the safest picks.

No one's safe from a sudden deconfirm at this point.

Yeah, of course, nobody truly is safe from sudden deconfirmation but Crash already has a good enough deal going for him. He's the one character not in Smash who's arguably had the most going for him. Nothing has been here to hit him like a truck yet. If it does happen, I'd knock him from the safe pick list.

 

[SharkLord]

Is this a thing or are you just typing random stuff?

View attachment 310088
So, you wish to know about God do you?

He very much exists

Gwen Discussion 101: When in doubt, assume it's Kamen Rider

 

[Louie G.]

... I don't think anyone except Crash is a safe pick anymore.

I think Crash is decidedly pretty unsafe at this point, to be honest. I teetered back and forth on him after Pyra until we got Monster Hunter and Hayabusa's disconfirmations, but a lot has happened to put these big popular requests / heavily speculated characters into perspective. I still have some bit of belief in Master Chief, since Microsoft is already involved, but I feel like collaboration with a big company like Activision isn't the kind of thing we'd see this late in the pass. With Steve and Sephiroth being more frontloaded I personally envision them as the big pass sellers that Crash likely would have sat right alongside.

I'm personally not convinced we're going to see ANY additional companies, particularly given what I suggested before about later DLC decisions being easier grabs, but I feel that doesn't count out the possibility of a more humble, smaller company like Falcom or ArcSys joining the fray. Activision though, I really don't know. If Crash makes it it's probably because they felt people REALLY wanted him and Nintendo made a big push toward the end of negotiations to land him... which is a shaky stance to take, but that's probably the most feasible scenario I could see for Crash at this point in time.

Sorta ninja'd on the sentiment about Crash not being safe, but still figure my perspective on the situation is worth sharing.

 

[SharkLord]

Yeah, of course, nobody truly is safe from sudden deconfirmation but Crash already has a good enough deal going for him. He's the one character not in Smash who's arguably had the most going for him. Nothing has been here to hit him like a truck yet. If it does happen, I'd knock him from the safe pick list.

The thing is, MH and Hayabusa were going smoothly, and then they got hit out of the blue. Sure, the Hunters had the Miis, but all eyes were on Lloyd at the time. Hayabusa didn't even have a Mii; He was just casually deconfirmed. There's also all the minor KT content scattered throughout; Yuri's AT, the AoC Spirits, and the portions of Byleth's trailer styled after Three Houses cutscenes. It seemed like Hayabusa ahd one foot in the door already,and then he was just silently ended. Even if Crash is the "most likely" candidate on paper, there's nothing protecting him from a sudden execution.

 

[SKX31]

The speculation thread talking about a completely inane theory that makes no sense?
I'd rather watch grass grow.

Which one? Most of the time with this thread there are multiple conversations going on at the same time, or the same conversation splits off into separate conversations, etc. T'is another day in the chaos of Smash speculation.

P E R F E C T

I heard there's some absolutely capital hiking in the Grand Canyon. Maybe we should go there one day. And get the stuffed bears that are so popular. It might be good for the mental health after seeing whatever's going on right now.

Hell, I'd say Crash isn't even a safe pick anymore, since we saw how easily the rug can be pulled from under even the safest picks.

No one's safe from a sudden deconfirm at this point.

One thing worth noting is that there's a very limited number of slots to begin with and Nintendo has reserved at least 3 out of 11 FP Packs for themselves. TBH, he felt much safer early on in the respective passes when there were more slots left to speculate about. With only 2 left it feels kind of dicey.

 

[SpectreJordan]

Tencent also localized the Switch for China, so there’s that

as for my predictions IF this theory is true:

Reimu’s out since she’s on the “definitely not in” list. Crash too. I do think there’s a possibility of a double dip, moreso with Square Enix IMO (my money’s on Neku; if Microsoft, I’m feelin Ori instead of Master Chief). Octoling could be in the pass to fill in the gaps for Splatoon 2/Octo Expansion content, or to promote Splatoon 3, or maybe both. The Projectile glitch could fit Wraith (Apex) according to 7NATOR so she in particular could be possible but only if EA was like “do whatever, mostly”. Then with the Tencent switch partnership as aforementioned, one of their subsidiaries, Epic or Riot, could be represented. I’m feeling more so a LoL rep, with maybe a Fortnite Mii costume. Since the Fortnite director’s “no comment” reminds me of Suda’s “no comment” before the Travis Mii was shown.

the bonus character is 100% Nintendo hands down - unlikely to be a third party at this point, and Namco is out according to said theory. Could be Ayumi Tachibana. Could be the likes of Bandana Dee or Dixie Kong. And yes, since Individual DLC, assuming the bonus is one, don’t need spirit boards, imma lump Elma in too and not just due to personal bias. Caitlin Glass’s voice NDA and Hiroyuki Sawano’s secret project are STILL unknown, and who knows maybe this bonus COULD at least come with music and/or a stage, just again no spirit board.

tl;dr

My predictions for the last two of the pass - any combination of Neku Sakuraba, (maybe) 2B (Neku and 2B are mutually exclusive mind you), Ori, LoL character, Octoling (if not the bonus character), Wraith (Apex Legends)

My predictions for the bonus character assuming we do get one and they’re individual DLC like Piranha Plant (music is possible just for them, maybe stage, no spirit board) - Ayumi Tachibana, Bandana Dee, Black Shadow, Dixie Kong, Elma, Octoling (if not in the pass)

What makes you think we’d get Ori over Chief? The Ori games were two of the best games of last gen, but that’d be a really odd decision.

 

[7NATOR]

Ori was Deconfirmed a while back ago

Moon Studios Would "Love" To See Ori In Smash Bros. Ultimate, Tells Fans To Tweet Head Of Xbox About It - Nintendo Life