Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[CannonStreak]

Oh sure, I agree. In fact, I'd be completely accepting of if he were to retire after Ultimate.

Ditto.

On that Gamestop document; kinda random here, but their slogan on that document: Power to the Players? Knowing Gamestop, more like Power over the Players.

 

[cothero]

I tend to be somewhat pessimistic when it comes to more western characters. I mean, Steve negotiations took around 5 years and Banjo basically happened because Microsoft was already in, turning the process easier. A negotiation with a western company tends to be more complicated due to distance, cultural and language barriers, so i can only see a western character getting in if those negotiation started a lot earlier, just like in Steve's case. I could easily see another Microsoft character getting in. We haven't seen any credible leaker (Verge, Imran) talking about any western company negotiations alongside Microsoft (beside small cameos like Mii costumes for Altair and Rabbids), so i don't think there'll be another western character in this iteration (which is a shame, 'cuz smash desperately needs more western characters).

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

No, i don't think this is real. My suspicion of a reveal this month is based on timing. Steve: October; Sephiroth: December; Pythra: February. Don't you see the two months patern here? Most people believe the next character will be only revealed at E3 and the last one at the end of the year. I believe they pretent to wrap this up soon.

While I see where you're coming from, the difference is actually closer to 70 days than 60, and that puts us right around the last couple days of April. Could an April reveal happen? Yeah. But it could also stretch one week beyond the average and land in May just because of standard deviation. There's also the possibility that the pattern will break. Especially seeing as it isn't technically a pattern yet (we only have two instances of a 70ish day wait). I think the average wait between reveals over all the DLC has been closer to 80 or 90 days discounting the really long outliers, so there is a very real possibility that the timing between reveals will swing the other direction and start getting longer again.

 

[epicmartin7]

Oooh, I hope those rumors about the Smash announcements speeding up are true...

wdym by speeding up?

 

[cothero]

While I see where you're coming from, the difference is actually closer to 70 days than 60, and that puts us right around the last couple days of April. Could an April reveal happen? Yeah. But it could also stretch one week beyond the average and land in May just because of standard deviation. There's also the possibility that the pattern will break. Especially seeing as it isn't technically a pattern yet (we only have two instances of a 70ish day wait). I think the average wait between reveals over all the DLC has been closer to 80 or 90 days discounting the really long outliers, so there is a very real possibility that the timing between reveals will swing the other direction and start getting longer again.

Let's not forget that this "two month reveal/release pattern" started with Steve, not Sephiroth. I'm not putting this as 100% garantee, patterns in smash are made to be broken, it's just my suspicion. But it could happen, of course.

 

[PSIGuy]

A ‘filler’ wave of amiibo separating FP1 and FP2 probably makes sense from a production standpoint. I’d assume all FP1 amiibo plans were sorted at the same time, possibly before FP2 was finalised or even starting planning. A buffer wave lets them wait for FP2 negotiations before planning their amiibo.

 

[MarioRaccoon]

Imagine if by 2 months they want to announce something new

october 2020: steve
december 2020: sephiroth
february 2021: pyra/mythra
april 2021: more amiibos
june 2021: CP10
august 2021: CP11
october 2021: bonus fighter 1
december 2021: final amiibo wave (alex, zombie, enderman, shirtless sephiroth, maybe the other 3 DQ heroes and female byleth?)

 

[SharkLord]

wdym by speeding up?

I think they're referring to the shrinking gaps between reveals. Comparing Min Min/Steve's gap with Sephiroth/Pyra's, you can tell it's getting a lot shorter.

 

[Technomage]

I think they're referring to the shrinking gaps between reveals. Comparing Min Min/Steve's gap with Sephiroth/Pyra's, you can tell it's getting a lot shorter.

You got that right, friend.

 

[epicmartin7]

I think they're referring to the shrinking gaps between reveals. Comparing Min Min/Steve's gap with Sephiroth/Pyra's, you can tell it's getting a lot shorter.

Oh yeah, good point there. Kinda' curious to see how this goes from here.

 

[Lionfranky]

The more I think about it, the more damning it really is that it took for Minecraft to become the best selling game of all time for Nintendo to finally be interested in including a character from a western IP in Smash Bros., which in turn opened the door for Banjo-Kazooie's inclusion because they were popular on the ballot and happened to be owned by the same company.

Crash WAS successful in Japan...but that's kinda the problem. Was. N. Sane Trilogy pretty much bombing in Japan may of made Nintendo overlook the character.

I am not sure whether Japan factor is really that important. I don't buy Banjo being so popular in Japan. I guess 400k sales is respectable for Japan market... But I don't think that's huge different from... like Halo 3's 110k sales. I seriously doubt Nintendo would consider "290k" as world of difference.

And Crash sold better than Banjo there. It's not like 5 million Japanese Smash install base would be familiar with Banjo. We had Japanese kids calling Terry "buffed Pokemon Trainer."

 

[Icedragonadam]

I think they're referring to the shrinking gaps between reveals. Comparing Min Min/Steve's gap with Sephiroth/Pyra's, you can tell it's getting a lot shorter.

It was like that with Volume 1 as well. With Joker to Hero and Hero to Banjo and Banjo to Terry or Terry to Byleth.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Oooh, I hope those rumors about the Smash announcements speeding up are true...

YES. END OUR SUFFERING!

 

[CannonStreak]

YES. END OUR SUFFERING!

And pain! The inglorious pain! Make it end!

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Let's not forget that this "two month reveal/release pattern" started with Steve, not Sephiroth. I'm not putting this as 100% garantee, patterns in smash are made to be broken, it's just my suspicion. But it could happen, of course.

Min Min was revealed in June. The wait between Min Min and Steve was 4 months. The wait between Steve and Sephiroth was 2, and the wait between Sephiroth and Pyra was two. There's only two instances of a 2 month wait so far. There is more weight to those because they've been the last two instances, but it is only two.

I do agree that an early reveal is possible. I just think there's a good possibility it doesn't. It sounds like we're mostly on the same page here, just with different hunches.

 

[cothero]

Min Min was revealed in June. The wait between Min Min and Steve was 4 months. The wait between Steve and Sephiroth was 2, and the wait between Sephiroth and Pyra was two. There's only two instances of a 2 month wait so far. There is more weight to those because they've been the last two instances, but it is only two.

I do agree that an early reveal is possible. I just think there's a good possibility it doesn't. It sounds like we're mostly on the same page here, just with different hunches.

The possible reason why Steve took so long to be revealed was due to his complexity as a character, they needed to adjust all stages so his blocks could work on every single level, Sakurai said it himself. If we get another complex charater like him, maybe the smash team could need a little more time to develop it, yeah.

 

[Louie G.]

I am not sure whether Japan factor is really that important. I don't buy Banjo being so popular in Japan. I guess 400k sales is respectable for Japan market... But I don't think that's huge different from... like Halo 3's 110k sales. I seriously doubt Nintendo would consider "290k" as world of difference.

And Crash sold better than Banjo there. It's not like 5 million Japanese Smash install base would be familiar with Banjo. We had Japanese kids calling Terry "buffed Pokemon Trainer."

I mean, for what it's worth, Banjo was clearly a special case no matter how you slice it. I'm not saying he's an "exception" or anything, I do believe the gates are open to western characters if they so choose to continue in that direction, but I highly doubt Nintendo was studying the sales data from a game that released two decades ago to justify whether or not Banjo could be sold to a worldwide audience. At this point, anyone who was following Smash likely knew who Banjo was whether they played it back then or not. He's a legacy pick, for all intents and purposes.

In that regard, I don't think this matters all that much for Crash in and of itself either. But Crash being such a new request may put his sales figures under more direct scrutiny, while Banjo is a legacy pick and gets by more on sheer name recognition. Conversations about Banjo in Smash never really died down, while Crash fell off the map for a little while in general and never really had a role in Smash discussion, so it may be worth considering whether or not his revival reinvigorated what was once a pretty strong presence over there. Granted, in all fairness, I do recall Crash showing up on some Japanese fan polls I've browsed through so perhaps his initial legacy has had a lasting impact after all. It's really hard to discuss these things outside of our realm of direct understanding, I think it's a valid concern though.

I'm never that comfortable using Banjo as a direct comparison for any other characters because like... B&K are really the ONLY ones who have been requested for so long with such a special connection to Nintendo's history. There is a very clear additional incentive to adding Banjo, just as Minecraft is the biggest game in the world which further justifies Steve. I guess what I'm trying to say is that one door opens and paves the way for more, but while many see this in and of itself to justify that it can happen again, these discussions often leave me wishing more people told me why it will.

 

[Guynamednelson]

The possible reason why Steve took so long to be revealed was due to his complexity as a character, they needed to adjust all stages so his blocks could work on every single level, Sakurai said it himself. If we get another complex charater like him, maybe the smash team could need a little more time to develop it, yeah.

Surprisingly he took about seven months to develop, just as other fighters did. Sakurai said development practically started during the lockdown, so that would be March, April, May, June, July, August, September.

 

[cothero]

Surprisingly he took about seven months to develop, just as other fighters did. Sakurai said development practically started during the lockdown, so that would be March, April, May, June, July, August, September.

That didn't stop them to release Min Min in june, did it? That's the point.

 

[Guynamednelson]

That didn't stop them to release Min Min in june, did it?

The developers that worked on Min Min=/=The ones that worked on Steve. Smash's DLC team is split into three groups that work on a different DLC fighter each.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

So bets this month we get a reveal?

Still thinking we're waiting until June.

 

[CannonStreak]

So bets this month we get a reveal?

Still thinking we're waiting until June.

I'd say June is more likely, but hey; you never know.

 

[Gnateb]

A mid to late April release would line up with the smash reveals we've been getting every two months, and it would line up for an E3 final reveal two months later

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

So bets this month we get a reveal?

Still thinking we're waiting until June.

I'm thinking May, personally. Something like a reveal around the 3rd week and a release around the turn of the month.

 

[cothero]

Speaking of Microsoft characters (which is the only western company that's still on the run to get another character, in my opinion), i think Master Chief (even having ZERO presence on Nintendo consoles), Battletoads (presumably Rash) and Fulgore are the most likely characters to get in.

 

[chocolatejr9]

So bets this month we get a reveal?

Still thinking we're waiting until June.

Welp, back to hunting for fake Direct leaks...

 

[CannonStreak]

Welp, back to hunting for fake Direct leaks...

Are those still being made? I haven't seen a fake Direct leak in a while.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Are those still being made? I haven't seen a fake Direct leak in a while.

That's what I'm wondering. Did something happen to make them stop?

 

[Icedragonadam]

Well one thing's for certain, there will be no Nintendo news at all from April 29th to May 5th.

 

[CannonStreak]

That's what I'm wondering. Did something happen to make them stop?

I don't know. All I know is that I heard Nintendo was trying to prevent leaks a while back. Looks like they did the same with the fake ones.

Good news about that though is, Blocked Content has not had much or close too, or even anything lately!

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

That's what I'm wondering. Did something happen to make them stop?

Maybe not having a Direct in over a year made people cool down a little.

 

[CannonStreak]

Maybe not having a Direct in over a year made people cool down a little.

And they're still cooling, to the point that they may have forgotten about Directs too easily. I mean, now that we had a Direct nearly two months back, I thought the fake leaks would start up again.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Maybe not having a Direct in over a year made people cool down a little.

Yeah, but I thought the confirmation that Directs weren't dead would shoot it up again.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

We’re now a month out from the reveals of Pyra and Mythra which means there’s probably a month or a month and a half left before we get fighter 10. Then after that, there’s only one more left.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

And they're still cooling, to the point that they may have forgotten about Directs too easily. I mean, now that we had a Direct nearly two months back, I thought the fake leaks would start up again.

Yeah, but I thought the confirmation that Directs weren't dead would shoot it up again.

I'd give it a month or two. When E3 time starts closing in, I imagine people will start making them again.

 

[CannonStreak]

I'd give it a month or two. When E3 time starts closing in, I imagine people will start making them again.

Yeah, but even before that time comes, they still have been awfully too quiet about leaks, fake or not.

 

[Gengar84]

Speaking of Microsoft characters (which is the only western company that's still on the run to get another character, in my opinion), i think Master Chief (even having ZERO presence on Nintendo consoles), Battletoads (presumably Rash) and Fulgore are the most likely characters to get in.

I think that is the first time I’ve ever heard someone say that Battletoads are among the most likely in anything. I would absolutely love to see either them or Fulgore get in Smash. Master Chief is a bigger name for sure but the others have an actual history with Nintendo so I would much prefer them. Nothing against Chief but the Toads and Fulgore are among my most wanted characters.

 

[CannonStreak]

I think that is the first time I’ve ever heard someone say that Battletoads are among the most likely in anything. I would absolutely love to see either them or Fulgore get in Smash. Master Chief is a bigger name for sure but the others have an actual history with Nintendo so I would much prefer them. Nothing against Chief but the Toads and Fulgore are among my most wanted characters.

Hey, I am down with that! I kinda always wanted a Killer Instinct character in Smash.

 

[Gengar84]

Hey, I am down with that! I kinda always wanted a Killer Instinct character in Smash.

Yeah, I’m honestly happy with any Killer Instinct character. There isn’t a single character from those games I don’t like. Fulgore is the most likely and would be awesome but I’d also love to see others like Spinal, Glacius, Hisako, or pretty much anyone else.

 

[CannonStreak]

Yeah, I’m honestly happy with any Killer Instinct character. There isn’t a single character from those games I don’t like. Fulgore is the most likely and would be awesome but I’d also love to see others like Spinal, Glacius, Hisako, or pretty much anyone else.

Same here. Isn't Fulgore the face of that series, by the way?