Official Competitive Character Impressions 2.0

[DougEfresh]

At least y'all won't have to wait much longer to get a more solid foundation to speculate about Pyra & Mythra.

 

[SKX31]

At least y'all won't have to wait much longer to get a more solid foundation to speculate about Pyra & Mythra.

It's worth keeping in mind that the version shown then is likely to be a month+ old. While it's going to be mostly if not almost accurate to how they play upon release, there have very likely been - and still are going to be - some adjustments made between when the Presents was recorded and release. Perhaps not as drastic as the changes to Steve's blocks, but still.

 

[DougEfresh]

It's worth keeping in mind that the version shown then is likely to be a month+ old - while it's going to be mostly if not almost accurate, there have very likely been - and still are going to be - some adjustments made between when the Presents was recorded and release. Perhaps not as drastic as the changes to Steve's blocks, but still.

Definitely true and I almost mentioned this, but I figured that would be presumed at this point. The presentation should certainly be more accurate than trying to parse what little information we were able to get from the reveal trailer and speculating based off that though, at least.

 

[sleepy_Nex]

Sooo i know this is Online but lately Steve gets a bunch of good results in Online Tournaments. It's not a single Steve either but multiple Player. It doesn't seem like ressources or range are that much of a problem either most of the time.

Any thoughts? Japan offline doesn't seem to have much steve play.

Personally i still don't have much of an idea how viable he really is but at least his strenghts look like they compensate for most weaknesses pretty well.

 

[The_Bookworm]

Sooo i know this is Online but lately Steve gets a bunch of good results in Online Tournaments. It's not a single Steve either but multiple Player. It doesn't seem like ressources or range are that much of a problem either most of the time.

Any thoughts? Japan offline doesn't seem to have much steve play.

Personally i still don't have much of an idea how viable he really is but at least his strenghts look like they compensate for most weaknesses pretty well.

He is solid. I also don't think resources is that big of an issue, but I do think range + poor speed is a fairly notable issue. At least he does have great edgeguarding and a potent combo game to compensate.

I think Steve fares notably better online though. Minecart is probably Steve's most valuable move as it gives him a burst option that is annoying to block, since it can also sometimes turn into a command grab. In a similar vein to Sonic's Spin Dash, online makes the move harder to react to, which in my opinion allows Steve to get out of situations he couldn't in an offline setting. Unlike characters like Min Min and Sephiroth, who endures better offline because online hurts their spacing potential, Steve doesn't really have to worry about spacing at all.

I am personally surprised he didn't gain that much traction in Japan, considering that is the region most known for optimizing odd-ball characters like Steve.

 

[sleepy_Nex]

Aren't the only moves that actually have range issues the axe and sword tilt moves? The pickaxe swings in a wide arc and covers alot of space.

Well to be fair those are some if his main combostartes so i guess thats understandable. They can be walked though and of course have the framedata. I agree with the speed. Minecart consumes the iron so he can't always just throw it out to compensate.

 

[Galgatha]

Aren't the only moves that actually have range issues the axe and sword tilt moves? The pickaxe swings in a wide arc and covers alot of space.

Well to be fair those are some if his main combostartes so i guess thats understandable. They can be walked though and of course have the framedata. I agree with the speed. Minecart consumes the iron so he can't always just throw it out to compensate.

Funny thing about Minecart, and not entirely sure if other people have figured this out yet, but it can be reflected WHILE steve is in the minecart. Playing as Falco, I found it to be a good way to almost completely shut out the option for Steve. Kinda similar to Villager's lyod rocket ride.

 

[StrangeKitten]

Steve CPU is honestly kinda tough to fight because it feels like pickaxe outranges everything I have. Take that with a grain of salt because there are stupid levels of input reading, but it still doesn't give me the impression that range is too big of a problem for Steve. There's also Minecart that will hit from very far away.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

MVD's tier list before Pyra/Mythra gets in.

pls dont hurt me, new tierlist! pic.twitter.com/SYOxSdA8ul

— MVD(Free Agent) (@MVD731) February 26, 2021

 

[Diddy Kong]

Why is Steve so damn high on that list ?

 

[StrangeKitten]

Steve is way too high. He ain't bad but top 15? I'm gonna have trouble seeing that until Steve is placing well in offline tournaments. I think he's mid tier, wouldn't argue against high tier but top 15 is really pushing it.

Also Puff is lol

 

[MrGameguycolor]

Well, at least he got Doc, Ganon, and Mac right.

So good enough!

 

[StrangeKitten]

Well, at least he got Doc, Ganon, and Mac right.

So good enough!

He also got Joker right!

 

[StraightUpSquared]

Kirb all the way at the bottom makes me a little sad, but I feel like that top tier is pretty on point.

 

[StrangeKitten]

Kirb all the way at the bottom makes me a little sad, but I feel like that top tier is pretty on point.

Lol isn't ordered, otherwise Kirby would probably be higher in the tier. That being said, I don't feel like Kirby's that bad. He's got fast moves that combo really well, and he low profiles a ton. Imo Kirby's a lower mid tier.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Generally speaking I think the characters that are too low are Diddy, Ike, Marth, Sheik, Rosalina, Corrin, Fox, and Shulk. Characters that are too high are Steve, Min Min, Bayonetta and Jigglypuff. Maybe Incineroar too.

 

[ZephyrZ]

I do find it funny how Ultimate seem to have an aversion against calling anyone aside from the likes of Mac and Isabelle "low tier", even if they rank them low relative to the rest of the cast. We have this idea from past games that low tiers are almost unusable so that if they've got strong tools we hit them with a mid tier label, even if they're well below the mid point. Then you have tier lists like that one that splits top tier into two tiers because we're so unsure of who's the best some people just want to say "**** it, they're all the best".

Not that it really matters what we call tiers anyway. I just think it's funny.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

probably not

— Cosmos (@CosmosZR) March 1, 2021

Looks like Cosmos is dropping Corrin. Frihetsanka

 

[Frihetsanka]

probably not

— Cosmos (@CosmosZR) March 1, 2021

Looks like Cosmos is dropping Corrin. Frihetsanka

I figured as much based on his earlier posts, Pyra/Mythra are likely to be better anyway and he seems to enjoy their games. Quite bad for Corrin's top level representation though, I guess unless she gets another buff people will continue to underestimate her. I think she's probably top 30 right now (Sephiroth's addition hurt her quite a bit, bad MU for her). It's hard to say for sure of course due to lack of representation and offline gameplay.

I guess we'll see what the next patch brings. Corrin buffs is not impossible, it's been quite a while since 8.0.0 now (8-9 months when the patch drops) so it doesn't seem impossible. Japan tends to view her even more unfavorably than the US too (though most Americans still underrate her, in my opinion). And she basically has 0 representation in Europe as far as I know. Her current representation is rather lackluster, with Ly in Japan currently being the most notable.

 

[MrGameguycolor]

I do find it funny how Ultimate seem to have an aversion against calling anyone aside from the likes of Mac and Isabelle "low tier", even if they rank them low relative to the rest of the cast. We have this idea from past games that low tiers are almost unusable so that if they've got strong tools we hit them with a mid tier label, even if they're well below the mid point. Then you have tier lists like that one that splits top tier into two tiers because we're so unsure of who's the best some people just want to say "**** it, they're all the best".

Not that it really matters what we call tiers anyway. I just think it's funny.

Replace Isabelle with Ganon and you're on point.

Just goes to show how good Ultimate's balance is.

 

[Frihetsanka]

top 20

— Cosmos (@CosmosZR) March 1, 2021

Seems Cosmos is still fairly optimistic about Corrin (going from top 15 to top 20 after a bunch of patches, including the addition of Sephiroth). Sadly, without him to show what the character can do, Corrin is probably doomed to remain a mid tier in most people's eyes. I still believe she's a high tier though (although I'm not quite as optimistic as Cosmos, I think she's probably more likely to be top 30 than top 20).

Speaking of Corrin, for a while I believed she's better than in 4, and in some ways she probably is... Like if you took Smash 4 Corrin and put her in Ultimate, she might be worse, and if you took Ultimate Corrin and put her in Smash 4, she'd probably be better. However: The overall gameplan in 4 and various mechanics and such benefit Corrin more, whereas overall changes for Ultimate hurt her or didn't benefit her as much as it benefitted other characters. The overall meta is worse for her in Ultimate, while she did better in 4. One example of an universal change that hurt Corrin is the removal of shield dropping. Also, shield in general not being as good hurt her quite a bit: As many of you already know, Corrin is tied with Sheik for the best dash to shield, and it's still great in Ultimate, but in 4 it was even better, dash to shield was so powerful in 4. Overpowered spot dodges probably don't benefit Corrin as much as it benefits other characters (she can't instapin out of it, her smashes aren't really that good out of it, and she can like, tilt or jab I guess...). Also, being able to do anything out of a run doesn't really help Corrin much: Sure, she can occasionally get a down-tilt out of a run, but she will be more likely to use pin (which she could use in 4 anyway) or an aerial.

So, as a whole, Corrin might be a better character than in 4, but Ultimate is probably a worse game for her, and the meta is worse for her. In 4 she didn't have to worry about characters like Joker, Sephiroth, Min Min, Palutena, Roy, Inkling, Greninja, Shulk, Belmont, Pikachu, Snake, Wolf. Sure, some of those existed in 4 but they were not as strong. In Ultimate, the only top tier she beats is Mr. Game & Watch (and some might argue that it's even), and she beats a few high tiers, but her list of losing MUs is much longer, and her list of MUs she beats hard is much, much shorter than in 4. I still think her strengths and matchup spread is good enough to make her top 30 and thus a high tier, but without Cosmos or any other top level Corrin it's going to get harder and harder to argue my case. It wouldn't surprise me if Corrin ends up having bottom 5 or bottom 10 results at top level lists, not because she's a bad character but because she lacks representation. In an alternative universe, Pyra/Mythra were not DLC and Cosmos mained Corrin and showed the world what she could do. This will probably not be the case, and I suppose Corrin's competitive potential will be left relativity unexplored. Still, I believe she's a high tier character, but without Cosmos or any other top level player it's going to be hard to convince people who didn't watch Cosmos play her after the 8.0.0 buffs or who haven't played her themselves.

After writing all this it would be kind of funny if they buffed her in the next patch. Could happen, I know Japan doesn't think highly of Corrin.

 

[StrangeKitten]

Cosmos keeps breaking my heart with his character switches. "Pikachu? Well, I'm sad to see one of few top-level Inklings go, but I've been wanting a top player to pick up Pika!" "Corrin? Well, sad that my hopes for more top level Pika are dashed but, he'll show what this underrated character can do!" "Pyra & Mythra? I'm excited, but rip any shred of top-level Corrin play for probably a long time."

 

[Firox]

So I'm really skeptical as to whether we're going to see any more meaningful balance patches moving forward. It seems clear to me that the Devs are becoming increasingly satisfied with the current state of the characters and each successive patch seems to be less and less impactful. I'd love to see a lot of the lower tier characters finally get some love but my hopes are fading fast. Any thoughts?

 

[The_Bookworm]

So I'm really skeptical as to whether we're going to see any more meaningful balance patches moving forward. It seems clear to me that the Devs are becoming increasingly satisfied with the current state of the characters and each successive patch seems to be less and less impactful. I'd love to see a lot of the lower tier characters finally get some love but my hopes are fading fast. Any thoughts?

It is very hard to predict what goes in the dev team's heads. But the pattern does show this behavior:

The last impactful balance change was patch 8.0.0, the patch, at June 29th.
The update gave some notable buffs to .
And outright tier changing buffs to .

The patch, patch 9.0.0, released at October 13th, only really gave out a few QoL buffs to , and that is it.

The patch, patch 10.1.0, released at December 22nd, only really fixes some bugs with and multi-hit fixes. was the only real notable affected character by this.


So yeah, the trend is showing less and less significant changes since patch 8.0.0.
It makes sense, at this point, we are getting closer and closer to the end of Ultimate's patch cycle, and the devs don't really have much data to work off of since we are still stuck to scattered online events.

As for my predictions of the patch, I am thinking probably more multi-hit adjustments, and probably nerfs due to how the Japanese playerbase feels about her, but I am not expecting too much.
But who knows? Maybe we are about to get some major balance changes out of nowhere, and prove my point null and void.
We will see.

 

[SKX31]

MVD's tier list before Pyra/Mythra gets in.

There are a number of characters that seem kinda high / low, as well as cases where there could be slight adjustments - I'm of the very personal and subjective opinion that Cloud could be a bit higher if not around top 25, but I won't mind MVD's placement of him here. But overall, it's a pretty solid tier list and a sensible one.

So yeah, the trend is showing less and less significant changes since patch 8.0.0.
It makes sense, at this point, we are getting closer and closer to the end of Ultimate's patch cycle, and the devs don't really have much data to work off of since we are still stuck to scattered online events.

As for my predictions of the patch, I am thinking probably more multi-hit adjustments, and probably nerfs due to how the Japanese playerbase feels about her, but I am not expecting too much.
But who knows? Maybe we are about to get some major balance changes out of nowhere, and prove my point null and void.
We will see.

While we have to see what happens, I can't help but to feel that they slowed down the changes in 9.0 and 10.1 because of the lack of data. And it's understandable - if one rocks the boat a bit too much using only online / Elite Smash results the results might be really wonky once offline tournaments return in full force.

And yeah, nerfs seem to be a safe bet. Not guaranteed, but it's been months since the complaints first surfaced and the more patient Japanese meta seem to fit her a bit too well. It might be mainly that players like Protobantham - who are extremely good with a number of characters - use her, but still.

 

[NotLiquid]

I don't think there's any real safe bets in regards to potential nerfs, regardless of whatever limited impression people may have about the very selective competitive results we get in present. The balancing team are fine with going so far as buffing characters like Ness and Sonic - both characters that attain strong results offline+online and are fairly disliked at a pretty global scale by comparison (even if I'd argue the intent of the buffs aren't necessarily wrong in theory). All bets are off on what they constitute worthwhile balance adjustments, and the fact that the injections have been mostly minimal when it comes to nerfs suggests a general aversion to messing with character strengths unless they're trying to tune up other areas to compensate (see Ike and Pokémon Trainer's balancing history for reference).

 

[DougEfresh]

So I'm really skeptical as to whether we're going to see any more meaningful balance patches moving forward. It seems clear to me that the Devs are becoming increasingly satisfied with the current state of the characters and each successive patch seems to be less and less impactful. I'd love to see a lot of the lower tier characters finally get some love but my hopes are fading fast. Any thoughts?

While I think as time goes on, balance patch changes to characters are naturally going to become relatively less significant or extensive, I think there's still plenty of time for there to be potentially "meaningful" changes depending on who gets them.

To my knowledge, we don't know an endpoint for when balance patch support for Ultimate will be, and until we get a concrete announcement of such, I don't think there's any reason to believe that balance work will stop after DLC development is completed. Call this a hunch, but I think Ultimate will be the last smash game for quite a while as well, and although no one in this game is what I would call "game-breaking" like brawl meta knight or Sm4sh Bayo, Sakurai and the dev team may feel compelled to act on due diligence this time with their balance patches before being completely satisfied with the game's balance state.

I also believe 8.0.0 at the end of June 2020 got a lot of people really hyped up, with more neglected characters like getting some impactful changes combined with a fair number of substantial improvements made to fan favorites as well. Of course, there were several others who got decent changes then as well, and later you have 9.0.0 (which like Bookworm said, was more of a "QoL" patch rather than a genuine buff/nerf balance patch even though it made some obscure character specialists like me somewhat happy), and the latest patch being even lighter on changes. Given the high peak of 8.0.0 and the remoteness of the last two patches, it's easy to feel disappointed with the trend that's started to emerge, but the breadth of patches could just as easily ebb and flow until balance work on Ultimate is done for good.

Also, I recall Sakurai in one of his presentations mentioning that he plays against his colleagues as a way to help make determinations on who's warranted balance changes one way or another, and covid has obviously interfered greatly with his ability to do that. I don't know what the current status of the pandemic situation is in Japan, but at least in the U.S. I'm overall seeing relative optimism about the prognosis with that. As 2021 goes on, we could see a gradual resurgence of offline tournament play and results to use as data for more typical balance patches and Sakurai himself might be able to play against coworkers offline more often to get a better grasp on who deserves changes at this point.

A long winded reply to your question (sorry, lol) but I think there's a lot to account for in speculating on the future of balance patches alongside the fact that, yeah, the dev team is in no way predictable whatsoever with them.

 

[Firox]

While I think as time goes on, balance patch changes to characters are naturally going to become relatively less significant or extensive, I think there's still plenty of time for there to be potentially "meaningful" changes depending on who gets them.

To my knowledge, we don't know an endpoint for when balance patch support for Ultimate will be, and until we get a concrete announcement of such, I don't think there's any reason balance to believe that will stop after DLC development is completed. Call this a hunch, but I think Ultimate will be the last smash game for quite a while as well, and although no one in this game is what I would call "game-breaking" like brawl meta knight or Sm4sh Bayo, Sakurai and the dev team may feel compelled to act on due diligence this time with their balance patches before being completely satisfied with the game's balance state.

I also believe 8.0.0 at the end of June 2020 got a lot of people really hyped up, with more neglected characters like getting some impactful changes combined with a fair number of substantial improvements made to fan favorites as well. Of course, there were several others who got decent changes then as well, and later you have 9.0.0 (which like Bookworm said, was more of a "QoL" patch rather than a genuine buff/nerf balance patch even though it made some obscure character specialists like me somewhat happy), and the latest patch being even lighter on changes. Given the high peak of 8.0.0 and the remoteness of the last two patches, it's easy to feel disappointed with the trend that's started to emerge, but the breadth of patches could just as easily ebb and flow until balance work on Ultimate is done for good.

Also, I recall Sakurai in one of his presentations mentioning that he plays against his colleagues as a way to help make determinations on who's warranted balance changes one way or another, and covid has obviously interfered greatly with his ability to do that. I don't know what the current status of the pandemic situation is in Japan, but at least in the U.S. I'm overall seeing relative optimism about the prognosis with that. As 2021 goes on, we could see a gradual resurgence of offline tournament play and results to use as data for more typical balance patches and Sakurai himself might be able to play against coworkers offline more often to get a better grasp on who deserves changes at this point.

A long winded reply to your question (sorry, lol) but I think there's a lot to account for in speculating on the future of balance patches alongside the fact that, yeah, the dev team is in no way predictable whatsoever with them.

Many good points here. I suppose one other good point to add is the fact that even if we don't see any meaningful patches in between the DLC characters, I have a feeling that the last patch to ever be released may have some last-minute balancing once all the DLC characters are taken into account. Kind of a final nudge to even things out once and for all.

 

[NotLiquid]

Heads up that Smash Twitter is telling us to back up replays, so Pyra/Mythra are definitely coming this week, along with at least some balance changes.

【お知らせ】
近日中に更新データVer. 11.0を配信します。更新すると、それまで保存していたリプレイが再生できなくなる場合がありますのでご注意ください。残したいリプレイがある場合、「コレクション」→「リプレイ」→「リプレイデータ」→「動画にする」で動画に変換してください。#スマブラSP

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) March 3, 2021

 

[Frihetsanka]

In game says "Next few days" so yeah, Thursday or Friday seems like a pretty safe bet.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

As others have pointed out, the lack of offline data is probably why it's been a while that a patch has been really meaningful. However, I disagree with the idea of Min Min nerfs being likely as she's specifically designed to play that way. People wanted Waft to be nerfed and other aspects of Wario to get buffed to make him less reliant on Waft and the same goes for Sonic's Spindashes. Nothing happened to those so there's a decent chance that those moves are working as intended and that the characters are designed around that. Min Min being able to toss out a fully disjointed punch which could cover her blind spots and not needing to put as much effort into spacing due to the lack of proper sweet and sour spots just screams "This is intentional". I'd love to be wrong but this does seem to be a design philosphy the balance team wants to stick with

 

[StrangeKitten]

Min Min doesn't need nerfs

 

[meleebrawler]

As others have pointed out, the lack of offline data is probably why it's been a while that a patch has been really meaningful. However, I disagree with the idea of Min Min nerfs being likely as she's specifically designed to play that way. People wanted Waft to be nerfed and other aspects of Wario to get buffed to make him less reliant on Waft and the same goes for Sonic's Spindashes. Nothing happened to those so there's a decent chance that those moves are working as intended and that the characters are designed around that. Min Min being able to toss out a fully disjointed punch which could cover her blind spots and not needing to put as much effort into spacing due to the lack of proper sweet and sour spots just screams "This is intentional". I'd love to be wrong but this does seem to be a design philosphy the balance team wants to stick with

But there are sweetspots on Min-Min's arm stretches, they do more damage if you hit just before maximum range.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

But there are sweetspots on Min-Min's arm stretches, they do more damage if you hit just before maximum range.

Then I've read ultimateframedata.com wrong, it only shows 2 hitboxes, one on the frame it comes out, 14, and the other for every other active frame.

 

[DJ3DS]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbPI1ERozHY - specifically, 1:12.

This is interesting because it is the first time I have seen one of the top American ROB players do this combo (known as a double toss) on a tournament stream. It's been happening in Europe since at least 2019.

This combo is the main combo extension that every ROB needs to perfect. It will KO every single character in the game at 0 from any point on the stage; you just perform the standard zdrop -> nair -> zdrop nair loop until you reach the edge. If your opponent really misspaces an aerial, you can even hit it from a zdrop nair out of shield.

It's hard to get on an opponent who is conscientious of it, and that's what separates the best ROBs from the rest, but this should really be common knowledge if it isn't already.

 

[meleebrawler]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbPI1ERozHY - specifically, 1:12.

This is interesting because it is the first time I have seen one of the top American ROB players do this combo (known as a double toss) on a tournament stream. It's been happening in Europe since at least 2019.

This combo is the main combo extension that every ROB needs to perfect. It will KO every single character in the game at 0 from any point on the stage; you just perform the standard zdrop -> nair -> zdrop nair loop until you reach the edge. If your opponent really misspaces an aerial, you can even hit it from a zdrop nair out of shield.

It's hard to get on an opponent who is conscientious of it, and that's what separates the best ROBs from the rest, but this should really be common knowledge if it isn't already.

So that the devs can patch the bejeebus out of it if it's truly that consistent, and possibly break something else about R.O.B in the process?

 

[DJ3DS]

So that the devs can patch the bejeebus out of it if it's truly that consistent, and possibly break something else about R.O.B in the process?

It's definitely that consistent. There is some degree of nuance in the execution involved - depending on character and percentage you may have to fast fall or double jump after recatching the gyro - but it's completely true.

It's not just ROB, either. The Peach players in Europe have adopted this too to somewhat terrifying results.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Smash Twitter Community did a tier list based on over 21,000 votes. Apparently Lucina is top 1 because some trolls gave Palu, Peach, Joker and Pika some low tier votes.

 

[Thinkaman]

Well, we have graduated from pre-pre-release footage to pre-release footage, though we'll evolve to actual reality in just a few hours so it's questionable to pour too much over this moment.

My one prediction is a new personal pet peeve of people who tier the two seperately, despite no one doing that for PT.

 

[The_Bookworm]

My one prediction is a new personal pet peeve of people who tier the two seperately, despite no one doing that for PT.

It is tricky.

At one hand, they far more similar genes transformation-wise to Zelda and Sheik in Melee/Brawl, and they were ranked separately in those two games (although there is a tier spot for Sheilda in Brawl's tier list). Same logic with SSF2 Zelda & Sheik.
On the other hand, the transformation is almost instant, their movesets are far more similar to eachother than Zelda & Sheik's, and they are likely in-game going to focus on a strategy of transformation a lot.

I personally don't mind a separate tier placement for them just for the fun-sies, but their combined tier placement is definitely the one to focus on in terms of their true viability.

I just want to know when today we are going to get them.