Britches and Hose Mafia - Game Over!

[Sokr]

Good point.

 

[Kantrip]

Even if Sword's claim is legitimate, his PR doesn't mean much now that scum knows it's there.

That, and I don't buy it. I am fine with the day ending soon, unless people have things they still want to pursue. The day is stagnating at this point and I'm fairly sure we've established our route.

What is Swords at right now? L-2 still?

John2k4, I believe you have stated that you agree with this lynch. Would you mind setting Swords to L-1? Either that, or you can hammer, but I think the situation has more of an effect on Swords if I do that when I deem it necessary.

Any objections?

 

[John2k4]

Vote: Swords

Kanty, who will be the first one you look at if Swords flips town? Who does he clear for you if he flips scum?

 

[John2k4]

Hey, large font shouldn't be necessary Kanty; I got this now

 

[Kantrip]

I'm pretty sure this is L-1 now. No one else vote.

 

[John2k4]

I hope he is L-1...I took your word that you knew what the vote was in your post.

 

[Kantrip]

Vote: Swords

Kanty, who will be the first one you look at if Swords flips town? Who does he clear for you if he flips scum?

If Swords flips town I will definitely need to re-read to collect my thoughts. Red Ryu will certainly be one of the people I look at in-depth, as will you be. Cleared on a scum flip? I'm not sure, I'll have to re-read during the night phase and really look at interactions and connections to Swords, regardless of flip.

 

[Kantrip]

Hey, large font shouldn't be necessary Kanty; I got this now

Just making sure.

Also, I know he was either at L-3 or L-2. I re-confirmed to make sure now and yeah, he is at L-1 now.

 

[Kantrip]

But yeah, I'm pretty sure we're hitting scum with this.

@Swords: Keeping in mind that I can hammer you at any point in time, do you have any thoughts, stances, and/or reads you want to share.

 

[John2k4]

Now I'm a bit curious...
What % would you say your confidence is for SwordsScum?

 

[Kantrip]

Being honest, and if I had to place an arbitrary percentage on it, I would say 66%. However, if you asked me what I think the chances of hitting scum within the next two Days is, I would say 100%. This lynch is not only pivotal in the chance of hitting scum, but also in narrowing down who the scumteam is for certain. I know I will be getting a lot out of this lynch, unlike the JTB lynch that happened D1.

 

[Kantrip]

@John2k4: What is your current alignment read on Swiss?

 

[Asdioh]

The only thing that seems strange about his claim is that he said he was roleblocked. Even if he were scum and lying about his role, it would be really easy for him to BS numbers as a result.
Then again, if you think about it, he would have stated that information at the beginning of the Day, so it would seem even more suspicious if he waited until he was forced to claim, and then said how many scum were on the wagon.

Yay WIFOM. Let's just say he's scum.

Kantrip, don't hammer. We have time, and I want to hear more from Sword and RR.

In fact,

unvote
Vote: Red Ryu

Just because.

 

[Kantrip]

We will definitely hear more from Swords when he checks in here and posts final thoughts. I don't know what else you need to get from Red Ryu. Do you not think Swords is scum? What do you hope to gain from RR?

The form of census taker Swords has is an investigative role. When he chooses to use his night action, he finds out how many scum players were on the executed lynch. In this regard, his role allows town to narrow down scum picks and choose an exact number from a specific pool. This is information that scum can EASILY fake with no trouble at all. Not only that, but he claims to have used his action on N1, and he says he was roleblocked. This, coupled with the fact that he did not crumb, looks to me like a fabricated claim. I mean, one-shot census taker does not fit at all. Why use the action on N1, when the wagons are larger?

Asdioh, is Swords still the lynch toDay? What do you think?

 

[Kantrip]

Asdioh your vote isn't even being useful on Red Ryu, that wasn't even kind of pressure. Put it back on Swords so it can serve a purpose. I will only hammer if (when) it is necessary. We don't need to force another claim toDay if we still think Swords is scum. If you have questions to ask Red Ryu or Swords still, ask them.

 

[Kantrip]

@John2k4: What is your current alignment read on Swiss?

And don't tell me it's "meeeehhh" or "I have a bad gut feeling". Tell me what alignment he is. Tell me why.

 

[Kantrip]

John dies today.

@Swiss, what happened to this? Is John still scum?

 

[Kantrip]

I took these from when I originally asked the question and what I got as a response. If any of these have changed now, let me know.

Legend
Player name: 1st lynch choice > 2nd lynch choice > 3rd lynch choice
(brackets mean tied)

Asdioh: (RR) > (John) > Sword
Kantrip: John > Sword > RR
July: RR > John > Sword
Adum: Sword > John > RR
Swiss: Sword > John > RR
Sokr: RR > Sword > John

Applying a points system to this:

Red Ryu: 12 points
John: 11 points
Sword: 12 points

This means John was the preferred lynch by ONE point, which is a very small margin. If anyone else wants to give me their order, or if your order has changed since I asked the question (because I know mine has), please tell me.

@Swiss: One more thing I would like to know is when you decided Swords was scum. At what point in your reading was it? You said you got what you needed from the gambits and that Swords could die. Explain to me what you got from the gambits and why they brought you to a Swords lynch.

On another note, I want to let Swords live one more day so that he can confirm his night action, inform us how many scum were on the John wagon, and because my re-read brings John up as worse than him. Yes, this is on a whim. I am still okay with his lynch (it's him or John for me), but now I would much prefer John's.

Sokr
felipe
adumbrodeus
Asdioh
July
Soupamario

Swiss
Red Ryu
Sworddancer.
John2k4

Vote: John2k4

 

[Asdioh]

Uh Kantrip, I only unvoted because I didn't want him at L-1, unlike you. It didn't really matter where I put my vote afterwards, Sword is almost certainly the lynch toDay. Calm down ಠ_ಠ

 

[Kantrip]

Why wouldn't you want him at L-1 if he's the certain lynch?

I realized we're still waiting on a Red Ryu case against you. I guess there's that, but otherwise, what more do we really want out of toDay?

 

[Asdioh]

Sword also problmised some final words. If neither of them have anything by tomorrow (Wednesday) night then I'm fine with a hammer.

I unvoted because sometimes people hammer people out of stupidity. Who cares?

What's scummy about John, besides everything?

 

[Sokr]

Holy crap Kantrip, that was quite the turnaround. What happened with Sword? And is your only reason for voting John because he's ahead on points?

 

[Kantrip]

Either Sword or John is scum. Not both. Not neither.

Spoiler

this is not actually set in stone I'm just trying to sound confident in what I'm thinking

One of them is getting lynched toDay. Not both (lol). Not neither.

I still think Sword is scum. My reasoning for voting John is not because of the points I tallied up as those are incredibly arbitrary. I am using them to see where people stand on the lynches, though.

John is leaking scumsauce, and I want him to clean it up fast or he can go.

 

[Swiss]

This was to see if Swords would take that bait of the 'easy' push. This was bait.

Oh, God.

Someone call Adum out on this. Look at his play.

Please.

Cop claim, no CC. Adum doesn't insta claim potential miller.

Swords, which do you honestly think is lying?

And for the record, I have no idea what Adum was trying to tell me, I can only assume he thought he'd tracked my line of thought, or was simply sidling up to my ego to get me on side.

But ignore that from your decision making process, since he's bound to pull some unprovable some BS out his ***.

Ignoring everything Adum says to me for the rest of the day. So don't even bother.

Unless, Swiss...nah, no way would he do that.

I made sure everyone knew I didn't trust Adum an inch. Otherwise my previous post was nullified since we both clearly were buddying previously.

Okay, I have a response on stand by. I can just give it now if you want, Kantrip.

He was asked for a response. But instead of a "Can I give it now?" we had a "I'll give it now if you want". Delaying, doesn't want to get involved.

...

lol whoops

I thought this was in order (RR > me > John), but I guess not.

Okay then, the response:

Well, okay.

First I'll like to clear up that in the end, I think Kantrip is town in this. From no PoV can I see Kantrip do this as scum. I don't think it would be worth it from a scum PoV to just randomly throw away one of their members (one of whom looks very townie, btw) just to out the cop.

Now, what that basically leaves me with is a town Kantrip who is either pulling a gambit, or has a legit guilty. Maybe he actually has a town result and is just pulling a gambit (as you can see, this is where the WIFOM part comes in).

From a cop point of view, some of his actions are wierd. I would think that he would claim earlier as a cop. Also, why go after the people Adumb was attacking (like me! ) if he had a guilty on him? Why is he asking people now what they think of it?

However, the gambit PoV REALLY doesn't make sense, just becuase I think the idea that Kantrip breadcrumbed just to pull a gambit latter seems way too elaborate. Occum's razor and all. Adumb's immediate reaction to it is bad (as in scummy). Kantrip's suspicion that he's insane is paranoid, but believable.

There's one other thing that I'm debating pointing out, but it could be bad if I do. Just trust me on that, it's what keeps me from fully believing Kantrip.

Overall I believe Kantrip more than I don't.

vote: Adumb

This is the post that shows him to be scum.

What Adum said as the scum tell, the self preservation, is null to me. What I read as the tell was he talks about "believing Kantrip" - places the burden of trust on him. If Adum were to flip town, Swords is accountable for none of this. He also says the gambit wouldn't make sense, which even the slowest player here should have been able to see is wrong. The gambit would make complete sense, partly due to the reasoning Swords himself gave.

He's used the classic scum tactic of giving a point then an opposing point. He chose to trust Kantrip and lynch Adum while giving himself an out wrt paragraph 3.

I know you only asked what posts have me the tells, but I was going to get a banal question asking me to explain myself anyway. And before you ask, it doesn't bother me that myself and Adum read scum in different ways, we have entirely different thought processes & methods.

Sokr you baffle me. But in a good way.

@ Kantrip - If Swords is town and was roleblocked by anti town, do you think it possible scum would not simply RB him again? I'd lay down my mafia career if town had roleblocked him last night.

Adum rein your Kantrip in, he's getting ahead of himself.

 

[Swiss]

Sorry, most of that was @ Kantrip. Rushed it as I'm at work.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Still working on that case as well, Megaman Legends 2 and the BBR distracted me a bit along with other things, oops.

@Asdioh: Don't meta me, it doesn't work.

 

[Asdioh]

Cool stuff, Swiss.

vig RR.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

@Kantrip and Asdioh: Let me reread before I provide final thoughts. I'm almost to post 200 and hopefully I can get it done by today.

Also Asdioh I think that it's just as likely scum roleblocked me as town. The thing is that after the JTB lynch, people probably became more suspicious of me.

Also, even if scum roleblocked me, I think it's most likely because Swiss kept talking about that false vig crumb. So in the end I don't think discussion about who roleblocked me will go anywhere.

 

[Kantrip]

If Swords were to get roleblocked again, he'd be saving unclaimed PR's from being roleblocked. In that regard, he would be taking the hit for us. The only way he can maintain his facade if he is scum is to say he was roleblocked again.

I knew what you were doing during the gambit, Swiss, and I find it unlikely someone would actually buy it, but maybe that's just me.

Personally, I'm second guessing mafiaSwords. Indy, maybe, but I think John is actually mafia.

 

[Swiss]

Out of game info:

I lie a lot. It was entirely plausible that I was lying previously, especially given my innate distrust of Adum.

I'll confirm that post game. Though most players here will probably could now as well.

 

[Swiss]

Not that I'm lying at all in this game.

FYI.

Would never do that.

No way.

 

[Kantrip]

Swiss, do you still think John is scum?

 

[Sokr]

@Swiss

How am I baffling? And if you're just trying to be nice to me so you get a good read from me, stop it. It won't work.

@Kantrip

Are you suggesting keep Sword around to draw the roleblock? That way he could get copped assuming we have one, and if he doesn't draw the roleblock, we'll find out if he's lying. We could also kill John or RR who you said are more Mafia for you.

 

[Swiss]

Sokr you have a long way to go before I praise you. It was a crumb so I can't say why yet.

Kantrip. Leave him as a scum pick of mine for clarity. But rr and swords die first.

I'm a bit behind on this game so bare with me. I'm currently in the process of being banned from multiple sites due to deserved arrogance and trolling, so need to sort that out tonight

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Cool stuff, Swiss.

vig RR.

 

[Asdioh]

that is the most blatant doctor crumb i've ever seen and i hate it

 

[July]

I don''t really want to play this game right now.

I'm in class right now, so I haven't reed anything since Swiss saying that he would be okay with my lynch. It's 4 days from deadline and people want me to claim. I guess now is better then never.

I'm the town census taker.

I was somehow roleblocked last Night, and I haven't breadcrumbed. Yes I know that doesn't looked good for a semi-obscure claim at all but I never crumb and I didn't think it would come to this. I was planning to come clean wit my results at the beginning of the Day but yeah.

My ability is only one-shot and I can only use it on the lynch wagon.

Take it how it is.

I have to leave now, I'm typing this really quickly before class. If you're going to lynch me then fine but just let me reread before hand.

If you were roleblocked, was your one-shot ability used anyways or do you still have it?

Also why did you use it last Night?

Weird of you July to go over your thoughts on a gambit after it was already revealed that it was a gambit.

Your insights onto Adumb's immediate reaction is pretty much the same exact reason why I called Adumb's reaction scummy, and I'll let that be my answer to him.

Due to the holiday v/la I hadn't posted in 5 days, so I wanted to address the gambit in its entirety despite the fact that it was late. Is it just weird or do you think it was scummy?

Back to you July. I actually am kind of bugged by this reasoning because of how generic it is. Your thought that the scum out of me/Adumb/Swiss would try to appease the others is too set. What about other players? Are they exempt from this? Why does it only apply to us three?

Not only that but it's not really even true that Adumb and Swiss had tried to get reads on each other in other ways that I haven't. Again, it's true that I didn't think over Swiss too hard Day 1, but what thought I did put into it was made from observations of there play. Adumb and Swiss hardly interacted at all Day 1, and there most recent town reads don't really seem to have come from anything else besides observations that they made on each others play that they liked.

Other players aren't exempt from it, if I saw other players blatantly sucking up to Adum or Swiss I'd question their motives too but the interactions between the three of you are important because of this:

If two of myself, Adum and Swords want the third lynched, lynch that third player on the provision the other two are scrutinised and one randomly lynched if the target flips town.

I've placed a lot of significance on this for a good reason. First, if the scumteam is all three of you, we're screwed anyways. It's possible that 2 of the three people in that group are scum but its much more likely that one scum resides among the three of you. So I definitely want to take it seriously if 2 out of the 3 people suspect the other person, but I also wanted to see how interactions among you three would play out because even from the beginning it seemed apparent those interactions would have a strong influence on the game. Your interactions with Swiss and Adum by far seem the least genuine, and it seems to me that you sought to appease them until presented with an easy opportunity to lynch one of them, which Swiss identified when you hoped on the Adum wagon. And as Sokr pointed out, you seem to have your own agenda, and the crux of that isn't and hasn't been scumhunting.

I took these from when I originally asked the question and what I got as a response. If any of these have changed now, let me know.

Legend
Player name: 1st lynch choice > 2nd lynch choice > 3rd lynch choice
(brackets mean tied)

Asdioh: (RR) > (John) > Sword
Kantrip: John > Sword > RR
July: RR > John > Sword
Adum: Sword > John > RR
Swiss: Sword > John > RR
Sokr: RR > Sword > John

Applying a points system to this:

Red Ryu: 12 points
John: 11 points
Sword: 12 points

This means John was the preferred lynch by ONE point, which is a very small margin. If anyone else wants to give me their order, or if your order has changed since I asked the question (because I know mine has), please tell me.

@Swiss: One more thing I would like to know is when you decided Swords was scum. At what point in your reading was it? You said you got what you needed from the gambits and that Swords could die. Explain to me what you got from the gambits and why they brought you to a Swords lynch.

On another note, I want to let Swords live one more day so that he can confirm his night action, inform us how many scum were on the John wagon, and because my re-read brings John up as worse than him. Yes, this is on a whim. I am still okay with his lynch (it's him or John for me), but now I would much prefer John's.

Sokr
felipe
adumbrodeus
Asdioh
July
Soupamario

Swiss
Red Ryu
Sworddancer.
John2k4

Vote: John2k4

My preferred list has changed, I want Swords>(RR)>(John).

Swords lynch is by far my preferred lynch toDay. You want to see what his results are for toNight but we don't even know if his one-shot ability was used up when he was roleblocked or if being roleblocked means he gets another shot at it. That is if he is even town and his role is real, which I doubt anyways.

After that RR and John are tied. RR had been a strong scum read for me ever since his interactions and shifty reads on Tery but I see Swords/RR less likely than Swords/John. I need to reread Swords, RR, and John and look at interactions more closely before giving you a solid answer on which I would prefer for toMorrow based on a Swords scum or town flip toDay (or if anyone else wants to look into their interactions that would be awesome too since classes are and will continue to be kicking my *** until finals).

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

that is the most blatant doctor crumb i've ever seen and i hate it

Where did I crumb doc?

 

[Asdioh]

If you were roleblocked, was your one-shot ability used anyways or do you still have it?

Also why did you use it last Night?

I've never heard of a one-shot ability getting used up when the person is roleblocked.

And why is it surprising he claimed to use it N1? Wouldn't you do the same? Regardless of what Day he uses it, we'd get a ton of information out of it. Then, consider the fact that the longer he waits, the more likely he is to get NKed, and the fact that there would be less players alive in the future, making for less players to roleblock, meaning the chance of any individual getting roleblocked is higher.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

So my case got eaten by firefox crash with an update to 8.0.1 fun.

Life hates me.

Unvote

What is Swords at?

readlist atm,

Town:
13. Red Ryu
4. Sokr
9. Soupamario
1. adumbrodeus

Null:
10. Felipe_9595
8. Swiss
11. July

leaning scum:
5. Kantrip
12. Asdioh

scum:
2. John2k4
6. Sworddancer.