Ok, time to buckle up. I finally have enough information to get something real out of votal analysis.
Known information:
Slickwilde,
Maven,
Glyph,
RedRyu,
Fandangox, and
I are modconfirmed
town.
Starting assumptions:
There are 4 scum (If there are 5, we've already lost barring special powers that can activate this day phase. If there's less, I'd rather hedge against the case where we could lose with a mislynch today)
Soup is
strongly town (I can redo this analysis later without this assumption, but the fact that he went missing really strongly points in that direction, despite my feelings about him yesterDay)
Laundry is
weakly town (this is my strongest townread, so I won't use it as a 100%, but I'm inclined to discard interpretations that lead to scum!Laundry)
So, let's start with the Maven wagon.
End of D1 said:
J (1): DtJGlyphmoney (#296)
Soup (1): mallorean_thug (#911)
Zaixl (1): BarDuIL (#1026)
DtJGlyphmoney (2): MoosyDoosy (#552), Spak (#896)
Maven (8): Raziek (#754), Laundry (#853), RedRyu (#870), FullMetalLynch (#977), Soup (#988), SlickWylde (#991), Fandangox (#1067), Maven (#1068)
Abstaining (2): Zaixl, J
The last 4 slots are all town, and 5 of the 8 votes are from town. Its highly unlikely that scum completely avoided this wagon, but at the same time, I highly doubt that all 3 scum piled on at the beginning and then went ahead and shot the remaining townies from that wagon last night. Like, unless they didn't expect anybody to do votal analysis at all, that was guaranteed to get at least one of them caught. So those 3 slots contain at least 1 town, and 1-2 scum. Its its two scum, rather than just one, I'd expect that one of them is FML, due to the way that scumteams unconciously avoid voting right after one another. Beyond that though, I don't have anything marked down for any anti-alignments between those 3.
So, if town is what pushed the Maven wagon through at the end, what made it inevitable?
Tied Maven and Glyph wagons D1 said:
J (1): DtJGlyphmoney (#296)
Soup (1): mallorean_thug (#911)
Zaixl (2): SlickWylde (#561), Soup (#909)
DtJGlyphmoney (4): MoosyDoosy (#552), Fandangox (#892), Spak (#896), J (#970)
Maven (4): Raziek (#754), Laundry (#853), RedRyu (#870), FullMetalLynch (#977)
Abstaining (3): Zaixl, Maven, BarDuIL
We know now that both of these wagons were on town. So scum didn't really care which one succeeded, but would want to make it look inevitable that one of them would. I'd kind of expect there to be 1 scum on each wagon at this point, and two scum avoiding creating a viable alternative by wasting their votes. If that's exactly the case though, then the two scum abstaining are exactly Zaixl and Bardull, because we have known information on the rest. That could be correct, or there could be 2 scum on either the Glyph or the Maven wagons. I already covered the Maven wagon, and we'll get back to the Glyph wagon in a second, when I look at D2 votals. Let's take a detour over to what was looking like a possibility before we suddenly had wagons on two townies:
Height of Zaixl Wagon said:
J (1): DtJGlyphmoney (#296)
MoosyDoosy (1): RedRyu (#403)
DtJGlyphmoney (1): MoosyDoosy (#552)
BarDuIL (1): Laundry (#599)
Zaixl (7): J (#266), mallorean_thug (#300), BarDuIL (#349), Spak (#357), FullMetalLynch (#494), SlickWylde (#561), Zaixl (#611)
Abstaining (4): Maven, Raziek, Fandangox, Soup
So either all 3 wagons we ran up Day1 were on town, or Zaixl is scum. Let's look at his wagon from the scum!Zaixl perspective first, since that was implied by earlier analysis.
Ok, with Zaixl all the way up at 7, this wagon could be all town, but I think that's doubtful. At least 1 member of the scumteam could have bussed here for some easy townpoints, but this early in the Day, I'd be kind of surprised at more than one (not counting Zaixl's selfvote, which was just wine), and I'd be very surprised if they were both in the 3-5 slots together. So antialignment points for [Bardull, spak, FML] If this really was a hyperbus and Zaixl only got to 7 from having 3 members of the scumteam on his wagon, the third basically has to be J. I find that pretty unlikely, and its more likely that there's only 1 scum between [J, Bardull, spak, FML] in scum!Zaixl world.
If Zaixl was town, pretty much all of that still holds, except that J + one of [Bardull, spak, FML] looks way more likely, instead of being a complete outside possibility.
I think that's all the useful info I can get out of Day1. Let's look at Day2.
End of D2 said:
J (1): DtJGlyphmoney (#1451)
FullMetalLynch (1): mallorean_thug (#1519)
Zaixl (1): BarDuIL (#1557)
BarDuIL (2): Laundry (#1308), SlickWylde (#1551)
DtJGlyphmoney (7): Fandangox (#1125), MoosyDoosy (#1126), Spak (#1413), Zaixl (#1445), J (#1520), FullMetalLynch (#1631), Soup (#1637)
Abstaining (2): Raziek, RedRyu
So the beginning and the end of the wagon is town, but the entire mess in the middle is pretty unsure. There should definitely be at least 1 scum in there, probably 2, very outside chance of 3, and I don't really have any strong-antialignments between any of them. We need more info, let's look at when the Glyph and Bardull wagons were tied.
Tied Bardull and Glyph wagons D2 said:
Fandangox (1): BarDuIL (#1103)
MoosyDoosy (1): RedRyu (#1161)
Soup (1): mallorean_thug (#1260)
Laundry (1): Soup (#1361)
J (1): DtJGlyphmoney (#1451)
BarDuIL (4): J (#1101), FullMetalLynch (#1232), Laundry (#1308), SlickWylde (#1393)
DtJGlyphmoney (4): Fandangox (#1125), MoosyDoosy (#1126), Spak (#1413), Zaixl (#1445)
Abstaining (1): Raziek
So, what really matters here is if these wagons are TvT or TvS.
If they're TvT, I'd expect the same pattern as D1, with scum spread out everywhere. One on each and two abstaining is actually not possible here though, since if we're assuming that Bardull is town, the only other candidate not on those two wagons is Raziek. That makes him almost certainly scum, and then there's 2 scum on one of the wagons. In this world, I could see [FML, {J/Zaixl}, {Moosy/Spak}] or [Moosy, Spak, {FML/J}] with Raz.
If Bardull is scum, then I'd expect to see a very different pattern. Either his entire wagon was town, or J tried to do some distancing that was a little /too/ effective, and they needed to swing the wagon elsewhere. If we assume his entire wagon was town, then the other 3 scumteam members are within [Moosy, Spak, Zaixl, Raz]. With toDay's events, spak is definitely not scumbuddies with Bardull. Which makes scum!Bardull worlds either [Bardull, Moosy, Zaixl, Raz] or [Bardull, J, {2 of Moosy/Zaixl/Raz}]
So if we hinge it on Bardull's alignment, I think the strongest scumteam possibilities are
If he's town [Raziek, J, FML, Moosy]
If he's scum [Bardull, J, Moosy, Zaixl]
Other things of note:
If you believe in my analysis and think that Bardull is town, [Raziek, J, Spak, Moosy] is the only possible scum team that doesn't include FML.
Regardless of your opinion on Bardull, there is only one scumteam my analysis produces that doesn't include Raziek, the [Bardull, J, Moosy, Zaixl] one.
J is a member of both of the possibilities that I think are strongest, but half of that depends on believing that his interactions with Bardull at the beginning of D2 could have been faked and distancing. Any uncertainty about that makes him way worse as the "hedge our bets" lynch.