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Bad Idea Mafia Redux! GAME OVER!

adumbrodeus

Smash Legend
Joined
Aug 21, 2007
Messages
11,321
Location
Tri-state area
Just being stupid.



1.) Rockin
2.) Mentosman8
3.) Omnididdle (Omni/Riddle Hydra) [Townie, Murdered N1]
4.) KevinM
5.) Chibo
6.) Teemo (Tom/EE Hydra) [Townie, Shot D2]
7.) Nicholas1024
8.) Gheb_01 [Townie, Murdered N2]
9.) Chacotaco [Townie, Shot D1]
10.) Xonar [Bomb, Modkilled D3]
11.) Adumbrodeus
12.) Overswarm
13.) Thedocsalive
14.) Chuckie (Vanderzant/Kataefi Hydra)
15.) Ronike
16.) Meta-Kirby
17.) McCloud [Townie, Shrapnel'd D3]
18.) Ligolski
19.) EauxLune


for reference

OS, that doesn't list Ronike as dead.


We're down to 12 townies and essentially have 1 lynch with a reasonable time period left (and one essential shot in the dark).


We could shift that down to 11 and give cops an extra night of investigation via no lynch giving us much better odds of actually catching scum. Scum do get an extra night to kill cops before they present their results though.


Thoughts?
 

Rockin

Juggies <3
BRoomer
Joined
Oct 16, 2006
Messages
3,546
Location
Bronx, New York
We're down to 12 townies and essentially have 1 lynch with a reasonable time period left (and one essential shot in the dark).


We could shift that down to 11 and give cops an extra night of investigation via no lynch giving us much better odds of actually catching scum. Scum do get an extra night to kill cops before they present their results though.


Thoughts?
I think it'll be better if we just try and agree as a whole/majority of who we want shot. Us not shooting is like giving mafia a free shot. Not to mention we havn't been hitting a single mafia yet.

OS, it hasn't work before and it's **** sure not gonna work now. >_>
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
OS, it hasn't work before and it's **** sure not gonna work now. >_>
In addition to the lavish decor, every dish at O'swarm is covered in a thick and hearty sarcasm sauce.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
Also, wtf @ quoting adumbrodeus and attributing it to me. :\

I still think Rockin should be shot, ala like 2 days ago
 

adumbrodeus

Smash Legend
Joined
Aug 21, 2007
Messages
11,321
Location
Tri-state area
I think it'll be better if we just try and agree as a whole/majority of who we want shot. Us not shooting is like giving mafia a free shot. Not to mention we havn't been hitting a single mafia yet.

OS, it hasn't work before and it's **** sure not gonna work now. >_>
Refer back to last game day, unless one of the cops already hit scum, we've essentially already lost. When somebody that's town comes under suspicion godfather shoots him, then as soon as his cooldown period is over, GF shoots the next day, and then as soon as his cooldown period is over, the inheritor shoots.



That's why we need to use voting, and only shoot somebody once we have a majority (with the condition if the deadline is too close, also wait an hour after the majority is achieved to shoot). If somebody shoots without a lynch majority, they're obvious godfather and they die, because if the godfather makes two shots at this point, and the inheritor isn't already dead, it's game.



Only way we can win right now unfortunately is use "abide by votes or die" or using OS's randomshoot strategy.




As for not shooting toDay, no it isn't.


There are 3 shots left in the game before scum achieve mathematical parity, if we no lynch today there are still 3 shots left in the game.


Assuming my voting plan, godfather gambit means that we're essentially dead if we miss another shot (without my voting plan we're already essentially dead).


At 11 people, we have a better chance of hitting the 3 scum then at 12, since we have the same number of shots left, why not? Even if we hit a bomb, it's pretty much irrelevant because a missed shot at this point is essentially game anyway, all that we're left with is randomshots.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say adumbrodeus isn't factoring in the whole "bomb" thing. 4 people can die in one shot.
 

adumbrodeus

Smash Legend
Joined
Aug 21, 2007
Messages
11,321
Location
Tri-state area
Actually, exactly on the contrary.


At this point, all we're losing is one random-shot if we hit a bomb, with the majority of the people still alive, and at this point, if a rewired bomb gets hit, we have no chance of stopping mafia from achieving mathmatical parity.


At this point I'd prefer a higher chance for the full day so we have an actual chance to analyze.
 

adumbrodeus

Smash Legend
Joined
Aug 21, 2007
Messages
11,321
Location
Tri-state area
You remember the godfather gambit?


3 shots left, godfather shoots a townie under suspicion (can be substituted for a townie doing this).

2 shots left, godfather shoots as soon as his cooldown is over.

1 Shot left, inheritor shoots as soon as his cooldown is over.



Ironclad voting system prevents first godfather shot, but there's little we can do beyond random-shooting before the cooldown is over for the next 2.


We have considerable amounts of data to analyze, especially after cop-claims occur, so I think we're better off using this day to it's fullest potential since we can actually scumhunt rather then going off randomshots.
 

thedocsalive

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 27, 2004
Messages
824
Location
Long Island, NY
At 11 people, we have a better chance of hitting the 3 scum then at 12, since we have the same number of shots left, why not? Even if we hit a bomb, it's pretty much irrelevant because a missed shot at this point is essentially game anyway, all that we're left with is randomshots.
I guess I'm okay with no lynch when it's mathematically better, plus the extra cop info is very helpful (assuming they don't get NK'd, though we've been lucky with that so far).

Logistically speaking, how does no lynch even work in this game? We just don't kill until mod imposes a deadline and proceed to not kill until then?

adum, you need everyone else's thoughts on an ironclad voting system, right? As I said yesterday, I'm okay with it if that's what everyone else wants to go with.

Also, V/LA notice: going to Florida for about a week starting tomorrow. I should be able to read most RL nights and should not need to be replaced, though I may be slightly less active than usual.
 

Nicholas1024

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 14, 2009
Messages
1,075
Wait. We have 12 people, that means 3 scum, 2 cops, 2 bombs, and only 5 townies.

If scum kills 3 more townies without being shot, than mathematically, we can't win the game. So a no-shoot + GF-shoot + Inheritor shot = loss if all 3 hit the VT's, and we haven't even factored in the inheritor shot.

It's sad to say this, but our best chance at this point might just be shooting from the hip.
 

M.K

Level 55
Joined
Jul 10, 2007
Messages
6,033
Location
North Carolina
Can we look closer at KevinM? He's playing the typical "oh my god town is so dumb we are so screwed" that he played in Code Geass Mafia. Getting mad at town, but not reaaally contributing anything of worth.
 

#HBC | FrozeηFlame

BRoomer
BRoomer
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Jul 26, 2005
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Albuquerque, NM
Mod note: No Lynch is not possible in this game. The typical means by which No Lynch is performed, voting, does not exist in this game and no alternative method was detailed in the rules.

All days must end via daykills or modkills.

EDIT: In accordance with this rule, failure to daykill before a mod imposed deadline is reached will result in the modkill of one random town aligned player.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
Well that's easy.

Town, never shoot.

Next person to shoot gets shot in turn.

We'll kill the godfather this way, and then the inheritor will be another godfather and we'll do the same to him. Then we'll easily be able to find the remaining player because he can't shoot and we can at least get the game down to two players that can and one unknown.

Town can't lose. It's foolproof!
 

KevinM

TB12 TB12 TB12
BRoomer
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Jan 30, 2007
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Sickboi in the 401
Overswarm, why are you playing so oddly.

I feel like you have been trying all game to feign a power role, is their any particular reason?
 

Xiivi

So much for friendship huh...
Premium
BRoomer
Joined
Aug 31, 2006
Messages
20,342
Location
somewhere near Mt. Ebott
Chibo has been issued a warning:

Rules said:
- As per the normal rules of mafia, there is no editing allowed for any reason whatsoever. Editing once will result in a warning. The second offense will result in a modkill.
 

ligolski

Smash Rookie
Joined
Mar 5, 2006
Messages
0
Location
NY
Wait. We have 12 people, that means 3 scum, 2 cops, 2 bombs, and only 5 townies.

If scum kills 3 more townies without being shot, than mathematically, we can't win the game. So a no-shoot + GF-shoot + Inheritor shot = loss if all 3 hit the VT's, and we haven't even factored in the inheritor shot.

It's sad to say this, but our best chance at this point might just be shooting from the hip.
erm what? How is shooting from the hip the right way to go...we should be hunting and analyzing not just popping shots off like has been done so far


Overswarm Well that's easy.

Town, never shoot.

Next person to shoot gets shot in turn.

We'll kill the godfather this way, and then the inheritor will be another godfather and we'll do the same to him. Then we'll easily be able to find the remaining player because he can't shoot and we can at least get the game down to two players that can and one unknown.

Town can't lose. It's foolproof!
This makes little sense to me...if no one shoots including the gf then FF just kills someone, that doesn't force the gf to actually do any shooting per say
 

Rockin

Juggies <3
BRoomer
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Oct 16, 2006
Messages
3,546
Location
Bronx, New York
Question

How does everyone feel about shooting Overswarm? I don't think he has done a lot of helping/contributing. Even when Xonar modkilled him, he seemed the least surprised/upset/worried about who was going down with him


Not to mention his issue with me as well as reason for me to be shot has been baseless.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
I'm gonna go ahead and point at Rockin' again and say he should be shot.
 

eauxlune

Smash Rookie
Joined
Jun 29, 2010
Messages
0
Well that's easy.

Town, never shoot.

Next person to shoot gets shot in turn.

We'll kill the godfather this way, and then the inheritor will be another godfather and we'll do the same to him. Then we'll easily be able to find the remaining player because he can't shoot and we can at least get the game down to two players that can and one unknown.

Town can't lose. It's foolproof!
Err.. what? There are still bombs in play. Even if the godfather was forced to shoot, which he isn't, if he snags a bomb we still lose. Considering the fact that he knows 2 of the players that aren't, his 2/9 chance to automatically win the game appended to the fact that even if we kill him the next day, on day 6 we have 24 hours to catch scum or it's game over. We're basically screwed unless he shoots a cop, so that's 7/9 chances for your little strategy to screw us over.

As for our chances shooting? Even if we randomly shot someone (which would be a terrible idea, since it got us here and we're backed into a corner) our chances of being still alive tomorrow are higher than letting the godfather decide our destiny. It doesn't really matter though, since it's all moot with the modkill deadline rule. Just a stupid strategy; you were probably being sarcastic when you typed it up.

I'm gonna go ahead and point at Rockin' again and say he should be shot.
Seriously?... If you are town you're not even trying.
 

Overswarm

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Messages
21,181
and again, my plan was sarcastic in nature. Not shooting wouldn't result in a town win, it'd end in a stalemate at best.
 

mentosman8

BRoomer
BRoomer
Joined
Jul 27, 2006
Messages
153
Location
Naperville, IL
Well, we've been largely boned thanks to Xonar>_> We pretty much have to be right today to win this game, I'm trying to come up with where that leads us to but I'm really not sure
 

Chuckie

Kataefi|vanderzant
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
0
Location
an igloo
Late mark on the register for Chuckie. Apologies. Pikmafia period has ended now so time can be better invested. Chibo what did that edit previously say btw, despite the warning?

@Mod:- is there anyway to revert that post back to its original state?
_

@Rockin:- something you mentioned earlier that bothered Chuckie was the phrase "fake contributing" regarding the system in place Day 1. Wii would have questioned you Day 3 but that was cut short no thanks to Xonar. Could you explain what you meant by this phrase? Was this indicative of scum? What were your opinions of the contributors - do you believe they were being fake and, as such, scum? Also explain more about your stance on Swarm plz. What is specific about him that is in need of shooting?
_

Now, @Swarm:-

I want to shoot Rockin soooooooooooooo baaaaaaaaaaaaad
I do not like Rockin's reaction.
If Xonar flips scum, someone shoot Rockin.
I still think Rockin should be shot, ala like 2 days ago
Wii spoke about how you've taken a teenage-tantrum approach and said varieties of "I want you dead" regarding Rocky-Rockin. If you wanted him dead for as long as 2 Days, why does your pursuit feel empty?, and by empty we of course mean... empty. Be more elaborative on this part because wii're interested in Rockin and also your thoughts on him.

Also thoughts on Meta-k currently?, considering both expressed similar views Twilight 2, and that was the moment you expressed interest in killing one but not the other...
_

"Shooting from the hip" sounds odd if it's simply shooting in the dark, considering the stage we're at in the game. Nich could you elaborate?... who do you think needs looking into?
 

M.K

Level 55
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Messages
6,033
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North Carolina
Chukz, I took "shooting from the hip" like you did. Like "without a scope, without focus", which.....wow that sounds bad now that I explained it to myself >_>;; Eww, Nich, what?
 

Rockin

Juggies <3
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Oct 16, 2006
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Bronx, New York
Well, I felt it was fake contributing for people to use the vote system when we can easily just agree as a group/majority and say who we want shot. Normally, voting is good, but since it's both not an option and no deadline, it would make it almost useless. The 'vote' would shift from time to time, having no set area of where the vote would stay in place (aspecially since there's no deadline to worry about).

I'm unsure whether to call it 'scum play,' as the vote's purpose was to see more clearly where the stance was at. Definitely anti-town tough...scummy? Dunno. I don't think all of them were being fake, but I also don't believe people realized the major cons with the system.Kinda hard to look into it since like....I think half of the players in D1 have used it (Yet it's funny it was barely used (if at all) on D2. Even now, I don't see anyone trying to bring back the system). I think the ones who went along with the system in the first place should be looked at.

Now, about OS
You're talking. A lot. Why feel the need to post so much in this game? That's pretty unusual for you from what I've seen, but stop me if I'm wrong. Looking back at your previous posts the substance to them is pretty slim too; it's mostly referencing what other people said and talking about game-meta like the pseudo-voting system we have.

If you were scum and I had to guess I'd assume you were a Godfather and felt safe enough to stick your neck out, so you could just shoot and then coast towards end game the moment you were under pressure. Your denial of the voting system would help make that a reality too, since vague "oh, I just think this guy is scummy" makes it much more difficult to track the Godfather.

But that's going out on a limb, I guess.
D1, Overswarm has presented to me that I 'talk too much,' which is...a pretty silly reason IMO of thinking that I'm scum. I fairly take a good amount and there were times when I barely talked at all on D1 (Like in Spiderman Mafia, which was the town one shot vig). I decided to ignore the 'case/reason' against me since it looked too silly. He hasn't pestered me since then.


I want to shoot Rockin soooooooooooooo baaaaaaaaaaaaad
Overswarm exclaims that he really wants to shoot me, since my non careness of Teemo dieing, not to mention I had no problem with Mc Cloud shooting Teemo. His coasting after the Chaco shot, as well as not responding to my case/issue with him bothered me.

Funny enough, Mentosman also felt I should be shot. However, Overswarm hasn't tried going after him, despite his lack of contribution and well as him explaining his dislike of me and Mentosman.

I do not like Rockin's reaction.
Tells he dislikes my reaction, yet never really persues the cause/reason.

Well that was fast.
Only non chalant response towards Xonar modkilling himself. A page later he goes on the slump of town handing themselves to Mafia. Odd.

If Xonar flips scum, someone shoot Rockin.
States if Xonar is scum, I should be shot.

Also, wtf @ quoting adumbrodeus and attributing it to me. :\

I still think Rockin should be shot, ala like 2 days ago
Beginning of D3, explains I should be shot (I remind you that he wanted to 'shoot me soooooo bad' at Twilight of D2)

I'm gonna go ahead and point at Rockin' again and say he should be shot.
Same as above

I feel that all Overswarm has been doing is advertising that I should be shot, even though he himself doesn't want to do it. I feel that he rather let someone else shoot him so that way he won't take the blame/fall of my death when the result is seen. He also hasn't made an attempt of a case. Just telling others to shoot me.
 

Nicholas1024

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 14, 2009
Messages
1,075
@Chuckie, meta-kirby
If Scum can get rid of 3 more townies (+1 for every scum we get), they win. With their Godfather shot, possible reshoot, and inheritor shot, this is quite possible. So I'm worried that at some point (read: at the start of a later day), our only hope for a win might be just to "beat them to the punch", and quick-shoot as soon as the day starts.
 

Chuckie

Kataefi|vanderzant
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
0
Location
an igloo
But nich if the idea of quick shooting for fear of Mafia is accepted, how do we differentiate between Scum and Town shots in that situation? Either way, quick shots are probably going to happen, but if we can't determine if they are coming from a scum or town perspective, then that's bad.

We prefer the idea proposed by adum, that anyone who quick shoots at this stage is auto scum.
 

thedocsalive

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 27, 2004
Messages
824
Location
Long Island, NY
So given that the situation is pretty bad for us, as multiple players have pointed out, it may be optimal/good play for us to have cops claim at this point.

*inb4fishingforinfo*

Right now, we have 12 players, and 3 scum, so we have a ¼ chance atm if we shoot randomly. Supposing that both cops claim, and one scum counterclaims, we’re up to a 1/3 chance. In addition to improved odds, this allows us to focus on specific players and interactions during rereads/ISOs/whatever. Also, if we mis-shoot one of the cops, we have a ½ chance the next day if we have someone beat GF to the punch. This also avoids shooting bombs, as they would clearly just claim non-cop.

If no scum counterclaims, we have the two cops confirmed, as well as probably three-six results, depending on overlap in investigations and/or successful sabotage(s) by the tactician. Supposing they overlapped on every investigation or there was some mafia tampering, then we have 2 confirmed players, and 3 confirmed-minus-GF players. So that leaves us with 2/7 odds of catching non-GF scum, and that’s assuming a somewhat unlikely worst case scenario regarding the investigations. Best case we have the 2 cops + 6 mostly innocents, leaving 2 non-GF scum among 4 players. I assume scum would counterclaim cop, but as noted, that still leaves us with a much improved scenario.

Unless I missed something, I think cops claiming would be very helpful at this point. I know they would then be useless afterwards because of the tactician, but we can’t concern ourselves too much with later game if we don’t get there. Thoughts?
 

ligolski

Smash Rookie
Joined
Mar 5, 2006
Messages
0
Location
NY
i didn't check to make sure the math was right but besides that doc I think you may have an interesting and decent idea, info like that would certainly help narrow it down real quick especially if one is holding out on a mafia show for some reason, i'd like to hear the other players insights before anyone does any claiming though
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
We might as well. One misplaced shot ends town's chances of victory, and cops being shot is actually less detrimental to town than a bomb being shot.
 

thedocsalive

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 27, 2004
Messages
824
Location
Long Island, NY
As for the logistics of a cop claim:

Suppose we get enough of a consensus that we decide to go ahead with it. Should we have a predetermined/random order for everyone to claim cop/non-cop? How about for the claimed cops claiming results (assuming a counterclaim)? Personally, I think the former can be done at everyone's convenience, while the latter should be done in order of suspicion, meaning the most suspicious of the three cop claims must claim results first. Adding an order for the actual cop claims doesn't add any significant pressure to the scumteam that I can see, but fakeclaiming results can be drastically different based on the order the cops go in.
 
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